WTA Lottery Matches

It's possible to win a match despite losing more than half of all points, or to win a match despite winning fewer return points than your opponent does. I define "lottery matches" as those contests in which both players win at least 47% of points, the threshhold at which luck and clutch play take on a larger-than-usual role.

This table shows all WTA matches this year within a special category of lottery matches: those in which the winner lost more than 50% of points and/or lost more return points than her opponent did.

DR = Dominance Ratio, the ratio of return points won to opponent's return points won.
TPW = percentage of Total Points Won.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2025-07-14

DateTournamentRoundWinnerLoserScoreDRTPWPointDiff
2024-12-30BrisbaneR16Ons JabeurElina Avanesyan6-4 1-6 6-40.9047.3%-10
2024-12-30BrisbaneR16Polina KudermetovaDaria Kasatkina1-6 6-2 7-50.9849.4%-2
2024-12-30BrisbaneR32Elina AvanesyanPaula Badosa6-3 1-6 6-20.9750.0%0
2024-12-30AucklandR16Hailey BaptisteJodie Burrage5-7 7-5 7-6(6)1.0050.4%+2
2024-12-30Canberra 125R32Nuria Parrizas DiazJana Fett3-6 6-4 7-6(5)0.9749.5%-2
2025-01-06AdelaideQFYulia PutintsevaDiana Shnaider7-6(3) 6-7(9) 6-40.9750.6%+3
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128Anna BlinkovaDaria Saville1-6 6-4 7-50.9249.2%-3
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128Harriet DartJana Fett7-5 2-6 7-6(7)1.0050.0%0
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128Paula BadosaXin Yu Wang6-3 7-6(5)1.0051.2%+3
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128Elise MertensViktorija Golubic4-6 7-6(8) 6-40.9349.5%-2
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128Katie BoulterRebecca Marino6-4 3-6 7-50.9149.7%-1
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128Jaqueline CristianPetra Martic6-2 4-6 7-6(7)0.9949.7%-1
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64Leylah FernandezCristina Bucsa3-6 6-4 6-40.9850.7%+3
2025-01-13Australian OpenR32Emma NavarroOns Jabeur6-4 3-6 6-40.9849.7%-1
2025-01-27LinzQFKarolina MuchovaAnastasia Potapova6-3 3-6 6-30.9151.1%+4
2025-01-27SingaporeR32Xin Yu WangRebecca Marino6-4 5-7 7-51.0149.8%-1
2025-02-03Abu DhabiR16Elena RybakinaKatie Volynets2-6 6-4 6-40.9548.8%-5
2025-02-03Abu DhabiR16Ashlyn KruegerDaria Kasatkina1-6 7-5 6-40.9949.8%-1
2025-02-03Cluj-NapocaQFAliaksandra SasnovichAnhelina Kalinina2-6 6-4 7-6(3)0.9348.3%-7
2025-02-03Cluj-NapocaR16Anhelina KalininaSuzan Lamens1-6 6-4 6-40.9849.4%-2
2025-02-03Cluj-NapocaR32Viktorija GolubicArantxa Rus7-5 4-6 7-6(10)0.9950.0%0
2025-02-03Cluj-NapocaR32Caroline DolehideDaria Snigur7-5 2-6 6-40.9047.6%-9
2025-02-03Mumbai 125R16Mei YamaguchiSimona Waltert7-6(3) 2-6 6-40.9649.1%-4
2025-02-09DohaR16Iga SwiatekLinda Noskova6-7(1) 6-4 6-40.9049.2%-3
2025-02-09DohaR32Ekaterina AlexandrovaAryna Sabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6(5)1.0049.3%-3
2025-02-09DohaR64Elina AvanesyanXin Yu Wang7-6(3) 1-6 7-6(5)0.9749.0%-5
2025-02-10Cancun 125R16Iryna ShymanovichTaylah Preston6-4 1-6 7-50.9749.7%-1
2025-02-10Cancun 125R32Anouk KoevermansJulia Riera1-6 7-6(3) 7-50.9448.0%-8
2025-02-10Cancun 125R32Carson BranstineEna Shibahara6-2 3-6 7-6(2)0.9949.7%-1
2025-02-17DubaiSFMirra AndreevaElena Rybakina6-4 4-6 6-30.9950.3%+1
2025-02-17DubaiR16Karolina MuchovaMccartney Kessler6-3 1-6 7-6(5)0.9548.2%-7
2025-02-17DubaiR16Elena RybakinaPaula Badosa4-6 7-6(8) 7-6(2)1.0050.6%+3
2025-02-17DubaiR32Clara TausonElina Svitolina7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(4)0.9349.8%-1
2025-02-17DubaiR32Karolina MuchovaEmma Raducanu7-6(6) 6-40.9949.7%-1
2025-02-17DubaiR32Sofia KeninMarta Kostyuk5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(5)0.9850.2%+1
2025-02-17DubaiR32Peyton StearnsQinwen Zheng3-6 6-4 6-40.9250.0%0
2025-02-17DubaiR64Veronika KudermetovaEkaterina Alexandrova3-6 6-4 6-30.9250.0%0
2025-02-24AustinR16Sorana CirsteaDiana Shnaider6-3 2-6 6-40.9951.4%+5
2025-02-24AustinR32Kimberly BirrellYue Yuan7-6(5) 7-6(5)1.0050.0%0
2025-02-24AustinR32Jodie BurragePetra Kvitova3-6 6-4 6-40.9850.0%0
2025-03-05Indian WellsSFMirra AndreevaIga Swiatek7-6(1) 1-6 6-30.8847.7%-8
2025-03-05Indian WellsR16Belinda BencicCoco Gauff3-6 6-3 6-40.9950.0%0
2025-03-05Indian WellsR64Jaqueline CristianLeylah Fernandez5-7 7-6(5) 6-31.0049.6%-2
2025-03-05Indian WellsR64Xin Yu WangJelena Ostapenko6-4 6-40.9551.2%+3
2025-03-05Indian WellsR128Lulu SunRebecca Sramkova6-3 1-6 7-6(2)0.9749.7%-1
2025-03-18Antalya 125 1R32Tamara ZidansekNoma Noha Akugue2-6 6-3 6-40.9749.5%-2
2025-03-18MiamiR16Jasmine PaoliniNaomi Osaka3-6 6-4 6-40.8649.0%-4
2025-03-18MiamiR64Ashlyn KruegerElena Rybakina6-4 2-6 6-40.8448.4%-5
2025-03-18MiamiR64Hailey BaptisteDaria Kasatkina3-6 6-4 7-50.9349.8%-1
2025-03-18MiamiR64Emma RaducanuEmma Navarro7-6(6) 2-6 7-6(3)0.8747.2%-12
2025-03-18MiamiR64Marta KostyukKimberly Birrell7-5 4-6 6-30.9950.0%0
2025-03-18MiamiR128Lauren DavisAoi Ito6-4 3-6 6-40.9850.0%0
2025-03-18MiamiR128Mccartney KesslerMarie Bouzkova6-4 2-6 6-40.9749.5%-2
2025-03-18MiamiR128Mayar SherifLulu Sun7-5 1-6 6-40.8748.3%-7
2025-03-24Puerto Vallarta 125SFJaqueline CristianRebeka Masarova2-6 6-3 7-6(5)0.9449.5%-2
2025-03-24Puerto Vallarta 125R16Jaqueline CristianEna Shibahara3-6 6-4 6-30.8048.5%-5
2025-03-25Antalya 125 2R32Ana BogdanIpek Oz5-7 6-3 6-40.9850.2%+1
2025-03-31BogotaR16Katarzyna KawaLaura Pigossi1-6 7-6(5) 6-30.9247.8%-9
2025-03-31BogotaR16Camila OsorioEmina Bektas1-6 7-6(5) 6-20.9950.0%0
2025-03-31CharlestonR64Louisa ChiricoErika Andreeva6-4 3-6 6-40.9749.2%-3
2025-04-14Oeiras 125R16Nina StojanovicFrancesca Jones2-6 6-3 7-51.0049.1%-4
2025-04-14Oeiras 125R16Victoria Jimenez KasintsevaLola Radivojevic7-6(2) 4-6 6-30.9949.3%-3
2025-04-14Oeiras 125R32Sara SaitoJesika Maleckova1-6 7-6(4) 6-20.9249.2%-3
2025-04-14RouenR16Moyuka UchijimaLois Boisson1-6 7-6(4) 6-40.8846.8%-12
2025-04-14RouenR32Linda NoskovaBernarda Pera4-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9449.8%-1
2025-04-14StuttgartR32Ella SeidelTatjana Maria3-6 7-6(2) 6-40.9850.4%+2
2025-04-14StuttgartR32Jule NiemeierLaura Siegemund4-6 6-3 6-40.9250.0%0
2025-04-22MadridQFIga SwiatekMadison Keys0-6 6-3 6-20.9750.0%0
2025-04-22MadridR32Anastasia PotapovaSofia Kenin3-6 6-4 7-6(6)1.0149.8%-1
2025-04-22MadridR32Donna VekicEmma Navarro4-6 6-3 6-20.9551.5%+5
2025-04-22MadridR64Marta KostyukEmma Raducanu6-4 2-6 6-21.0049.7%-1
2025-04-22MadridR128Lucia BronzettiNaomi Osaka6-4 2-6 6-40.9750.0%0
2025-04-28Saint Malo 125R16Naomi OsakaDiane Parry2-6 6-3 6-40.9349.4%-2
2025-04-28Saint Malo 125R32Mccartney KesslerYaroslava Bartashevich6-4 6-10.8144.7%-15
2025-04-28Saint Malo 125R32Katie VolynetsAnastasia Zakharova6-4 6-00.6738.8%-23
2025-04-28Saint Malo 125R32Celine NaefSara Cakarevic6-3 6-7(2) 6-30.8847.9%-8
2025-04-28Saint Malo 125R32Kaja JuvanGreet Minnen6-1 6-7(2) 6-30.8645.7%-16
2025-04-28Saint Malo 125R32Fiona FerroNoma Noha Akugue6-4 6-7(9) 3-60.9749.8%-1
2025-04-28Vic 125R16Aliaksandra SasnovichLeylah Fernandez6-4 2-6 6-21.0050.5%+2
2025-04-28Vic 125R32Elisabetta CocciarettoJule Niemeier2-6 7-6(5) 6-30.9749.8%-1
2025-05-06RomeR16Peyton StearnsNaomi Osaka6-4 3-6 7-6(4)0.8148.2%-7
2025-05-06RomeR64Hailey BaptisteLiudmila Samsonova6-3 2-6 6-40.8748.0%-7
2025-05-12Paris 125R32Julie BelgraverLulu Sun6-4 1-6 7-6(4)0.8447.9%-8
2025-05-12Paris 125R32Daria SavilleLeyre Romero Gormaz6-4 1-6 7-50.9148.2%-7
2025-05-19RabatR32Camila OsorioElisabetta Cocciaretto2-6 6-3 6-20.9750.9%+3
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR128Joanna GarlandKatie Volynets6-3 3-6 6-40.9749.7%-1
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR128Tereza ValentovaChloe Paquet4-6 6-3 7-50.9850.7%+3
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR64Paula BadosaElena Gabriela Ruse3-6 6-4 6-40.9649.2%-3
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR16Qinwen ZhengLiudmila Samsonova7-6(5) 1-6 6-30.9448.5%-6
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR16Iga SwiatekElena Rybakina1-6 6-3 7-50.9750.0%0
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR16Lois BoissonJessica Pegula3-6 6-4 6-40.9649.0%-4
2025-06-02Bari 125R32Tessah AndrianjafitrimoFederica Urgesi1-6 6-3 6-41.0050.0%0
2025-06-02Birmingham 125SFGreet MinnenRebeka Masarova3-6 7-6(7) 7-6(5)0.7847.5%-11
2025-06-02Birmingham 125R32Robin MontgomeryTalia Gibson6-4 2-6 7-6(1)1.0049.6%-2
2025-06-03Makarska 125SFSara BejlekMaya Joint2-6 7-5 6-21.0050.0%0
2025-06-09s HertogenboschSFElise MertensEkaterina Alexandrova2-6 7-6(7) 6-40.9649.8%-1
2025-06-09Ilkley 125R32Amarni BanksOlivia Gadecki6-4 7-6(2)0.9652.7%+9
2025-06-09Ilkley 125R32Iva JovicRebeka Masarova3-6 6-3 6-40.8649.2%-3
2025-06-09Queen's ClubQFTatjana MariaElena Rybakina6-4 7-6(4)0.9350.0%0
2025-06-09Queen's ClubQFMadison KeysDiana Shnaider2-6 6-3 6-40.9450.3%+1
2025-06-09Queen's ClubR16Emma NavarroBeatriz Haddad Maia1-6 7-6(4) 6-30.8048.0%-8
2025-06-09Queen's ClubR32Karolina MuchovaMaddison Inglis7-6(5) 3-6 6-40.8248.5%-6
2025-06-09Valencia 125QFXinyu GaoIryna Shymanovich3-6 6-4 6-40.9649.5%-2
2025-06-16BerlinFMarketa VondrousovaXin Yu Wang7-6(10) 4-6 6-20.9950.5%+2
2025-06-16BerlinQFAryna SabalenkaElena Rybakina7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(6)0.9048.5%-7
2025-06-16BerlinR32Liudmila SamsonovaNaomi Osaka3-6 7-6(3) 6-40.9650.0%0
2025-06-16NottinghamQFRebecca SramkovaLinda Noskova3-6 6-4 6-40.9449.7%-1
2025-06-16NottinghamR16Katie BoulterSonay Kartal6-4 1-6 7-50.9348.2%-7
2025-06-16NottinghamR16Dayana YastremskaAntonia Ruzic6-2 2-6 6-40.9950.6%+2
2025-06-16NottinghamR32Linda NoskovaAnca Alexia Todoni6-4 3-6 7-6(6)0.9948.2%-8
2025-06-16NottinghamR32Dayana YastremskaOlga Danilovic6-4 7-6(4)0.9851.3%+4
2025-06-22Bad HomburgR16Linda NoskovaDonna Vekic2-6 6-2 6-40.9951.0%+3
2025-06-22Bad HomburgR16Ekaterina AlexandrovaMaria Sakkari6-3 6-7(2) 6-30.9652.0%+8
2025-06-22Bad HomburgR32Maria SakkariYulia Putintseva7-5 7-6(6)0.9951.0%+4
2025-06-23EastbourneFMaya JointAlexandra Eala6-4 1-6 7-6(10)0.9147.9%-8
2025-06-23EastbourneR32Lulu SunDaria Kasatkina7-5 2-6 6-30.9949.7%-1
2025-06-23EastbourneR32Varvara GrachevaCamila Osorio6-4 4-6 7-50.9550.2%+1
2025-06-30WimbledonR128Irina Camelia BeguKaja Juvan7-6(6) 1-6 6-30.9649.1%-3
2025-06-30WimbledonR32Belinda BencicElisabetta Cocciaretto6-4 3-6 7-6(7)0.9749.1%-4
2025-07-07Bastad 125R32Antonia RuzicPanna Udvardy2-6 6-4 6-30.9950.8%+3
2025-07-07Bastad 125R32Elisabetta CocciarettoIrene Burillo Escorihuela7-5 2-6 7-6(4)1.0349.7%-1
2025-07-07Bastad 125R32Katarzyna KawaNuria Parrizas Diaz7-6(1) 0-6 6-30.9548.9%-4
2025-07-07Contrexeville 125SFElsa JacquemotOksana Selekhmeteva3-6 7-6(0) 7-6(0)0.9649.8%-1
2025-07-07Newport 125SFCaty McnallyElizabeth Mandlik1-6 7-5 6-40.8746.5%-12