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Here's an early look at a forecast for the next major. This report builds a hypothetical 128-player draw and seeds the top 32 using the current official rankings. 100,000 random brackets (following conventional seeding rules) are generated, then simulated using the current surface-weighted Elo ratings.

The results are sorted by each player's probability of winning the title. Here is the most recent forecast for the 2022 Women's US Open:

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2022-07-11

SeedPlayerR64R32R16QFSFFW
1Iga Swiatek94.1%87.4%78.9%65.8%54.9%44.2%35.0%
2Anett Kontaveit86.0%72.1%56.4%37.5%25.0%15.3%7.0%
5Ons Jabeur85.5%71.1%54.5%38.2%21.1%11.8%5.9%
4Paula Badosa84.8%69.8%53.0%34.1%21.8%10.8%5.3%
16Simona Halep84.6%69.4%48.1%26.2%16.7%9.1%4.4%
3Maria Sakkari83.4%67.2%49.8%30.8%19.0%9.0%4.2%
Naomi Osaka78.6%56.1%38.5%24.9%14.8%8.2%4.1%
7Danielle Collins82.6%65.8%47.9%31.1%15.5%7.6%3.4%
20Victoria Azarenka82.9%66.9%45.1%26.2%14.5%7.4%3.4%
13Belinda Bencic81.1%63.2%40.2%19.4%11.2%5.3%2.2%
Marketa Vondrousova74.3%49.3%31.2%18.5%10.0%4.8%2.0%
23Elena Rybakina80.0%61.7%39.1%20.7%10.6%4.9%2.0%
8Jessica Pegula79.2%60.0%40.8%24.6%11.0%4.8%1.9%
24Petra Kvitova79.8%61.1%38.3%19.9%9.8%4.5%1.8%
6Aryna Sabalenka78.6%59.3%39.9%23.7%10.4%4.5%1.7%
18Jelena Ostapenko78.8%59.7%36.7%18.9%9.2%4.2%1.7%
14Leylah Fernandez78.2%58.9%35.4%15.9%8.5%3.8%1.5%
22Amanda Anisimova78.4%58.8%35.6%18.0%8.6%3.7%1.4%
9Garbine Muguruza78.0%58.2%34.8%19.1%8.3%3.6%1.4%
12Daria Kasatkina77.3%57.1%33.4%18.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%
15Karolina Pliskova76.9%56.6%32.7%14.1%7.2%2.9%1.1%
19Veronika Kudermetova75.0%53.9%30.3%14.1%6.0%2.4%0.8%
Clara Tauson67.8%39.8%22.0%11.1%5.0%2.0%0.7%
27Madison Keys75.2%53.8%23.6%12.4%5.3%2.0%0.7%
31Angelique Kerber74.3%52.4%22.1%11.2%4.7%1.8%0.6%
Bianca Andreescu66.8%38.8%21.1%10.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%
30Elise Mertens70.8%47.2%18.1%8.5%3.2%1.1%0.3%
29Ekaterina Alexandrova70.8%47.4%18.3%8.5%3.2%1.1%0.3%
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova62.0%32.2%15.9%6.9%2.8%1.0%0.3%
Elina Svitolina62.1%32.4%15.9%7.0%2.6%0.9%0.3%
Marie Bouzkova60.8%31.1%14.8%6.3%2.3%0.8%0.2%
28Camila Giorgi68.4%44.3%16.0%7.0%2.6%0.8%0.2%
21Jil Teichmann67.3%42.5%20.1%7.4%2.5%0.7%0.2%
32Yulia Putintseva67.1%42.6%15.1%6.4%2.2%0.6%0.2%
25Beatriz Haddad Maia66.9%42.0%14.6%6.1%2.1%0.6%0.2%
Aliaksandra Sasnovich58.8%28.5%12.9%5.3%1.8%0.6%0.2%
17Barbora Krejcikova65.7%40.2%18.1%6.3%2.1%0.6%0.1%
Kaia Kanepi58.0%27.4%12.2%4.8%1.6%0.5%0.1%
Alison Riske57.3%27.1%11.9%4.7%1.6%0.5%0.1%
Irina Camelia Begu55.5%24.8%10.4%3.9%1.2%0.3%0.1%
Sara Sorribes Tormo56.2%25.4%10.7%4.0%1.3%0.4%0.1%
10Emma Raducanu62.7%36.5%15.0%5.5%1.4%0.3%0.1%
Shelby Rogers55.3%24.6%10.3%3.8%1.2%0.3%0.1%
Anhelina Kalinina53.6%23.2%9.4%3.4%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Ann Li53.7%22.9%9.1%3.1%0.9%0.2%0.1%
Sorana Cirstea53.8%23.1%9.2%3.2%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Marta Kostyuk51.9%21.3%8.0%2.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Dayana Yastremska52.1%21.7%8.3%2.8%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Daria Gavrilova51.2%20.8%7.9%2.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Lesia Tsurenko52.1%21.6%8.3%2.8%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Katerina Siniakova52.4%21.9%8.5%2.9%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Alison Van Uytvanck51.3%20.9%7.9%2.6%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Caroline Garcia52.8%22.0%8.4%2.9%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Donna Vekic51.5%21.1%7.9%2.8%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Qinwen Zheng52.0%21.3%8.2%2.8%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Tereza Martincova50.6%20.1%7.3%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Kaja Juvan51.1%20.8%7.8%2.5%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Magda Linette50.7%20.1%7.5%2.5%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Liudmila Samsonova49.8%19.5%7.2%2.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Alize Cornet51.7%20.8%7.8%2.6%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Petra Martic50.2%19.6%7.1%2.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Ajla Tomljanovic49.9%19.8%7.3%2.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Elena Gabriela Ruse50.3%19.9%7.3%2.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Sloane Stephens48.8%18.7%6.7%2.1%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Anna Kalinskaya50.1%19.6%7.1%2.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Rebecca Peterson47.7%17.6%6.0%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Camila Osorio47.6%17.4%5.9%1.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Andrea Petkovic47.5%17.4%5.9%1.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Viktorija Golubic47.0%17.2%5.7%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Madison Brengle45.7%15.9%5.1%1.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Ana Konjuh46.3%16.5%5.3%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Shuai Zhang47.1%17.0%5.6%1.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Jasmine Paolini46.7%16.6%5.4%1.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Jaqueline Cristian43.7%14.3%4.3%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Ana Bogdan41.6%13.0%3.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Elisabetta Cocciaretto39.2%11.3%3.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Jule Niemeier39.8%11.4%3.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Lauren Davis42.1%13.2%3.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Anastasia Potapova40.6%12.2%3.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Harriet Dart40.1%11.8%3.2%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Xin Yu Wang41.8%12.9%3.6%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Kristina Kucova28.6%5.5%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Magdalena Frech39.4%11.6%3.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Tatjana Maria35.6%9.0%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Dalma Galfi36.6%9.8%2.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Olga Danilovic36.4%9.6%2.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Kristina Mladenovic34.8%8.6%2.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Harmony Tan41.0%12.4%3.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Anna Bondar34.0%8.3%1.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Xiyu Wang33.4%7.9%1.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Clara Burel27.3%5.0%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova38.3%10.8%2.8%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Mayar Sherif35.6%9.2%2.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Vitalia Diatchenko33.8%8.3%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Tamara Zidansek38.7%10.9%2.8%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Cristina Bucsa31.7%7.1%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Arantxa Rus32.4%7.4%1.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Lucia Bronzetti35.1%8.7%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
26Martina Trevisan45.8%18.9%3.5%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Lin Zhu31.8%7.0%1.4%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Heather Watson35.9%9.3%2.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Irina Maria Bara20.0%2.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Claire Liu37.4%10.1%2.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Katie Volynets25.7%4.5%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Su Jeong Jang24.4%3.9%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Coco Gauff30.3%8.0%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Chloe Paquet21.7%3.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Linda Noskova36.1%9.3%2.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Ylena In Albon18.7%2.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Nuria Parrizas Diaz35.3%8.9%2.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Diane Parry20.6%2.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Panna Udvardy8.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Varvara Gracheva40.1%11.8%3.2%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Tamara Korpatsch18.1%2.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Ekaterine Gorgodze16.6%1.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Viktoriya Tomova28.1%5.4%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Danka Kovinic34.9%8.7%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Aleksandra Krunic30.5%6.5%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kamilla Rakhimova23.9%3.9%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Misaki Doi33.0%7.6%1.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Mirjam Bjorklund16.9%1.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Greet Minnen31.1%6.8%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sara Errani32.8%7.6%1.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Rebecca Marino40.5%12.2%3.3%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Maryna Zanevska37.8%10.4%2.7%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Laura Pigossi12.9%1.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Daria Snigur22.0%3.2%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Oceane Dodin32.2%7.1%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%