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Here's an early look at a forecast for the next major. This report builds a hypothetical 128-player draw and seeds the top 32 using the current official rankings. 100,000 random brackets (following conventional seeding rules) are generated, then simulated using the current surface-weighted Elo ratings.

The results are sorted by each player's probability of winning the title. Here is the most recent forecast for the 2019 Men's Australian Open:

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2019-11-18

SeedPlayerR64R32R16QFSFFW
2Novak Djokovic96.7%92.9%86.9%78.5%64.9%46.9%30.2%
1Rafael Nadal95.9%91.2%83.8%74.4%59.3%40.5%22.4%
3Roger Federer95.9%91.3%83.8%74.2%58.9%34.8%20.9%
5Daniil Medvedev92.4%84.3%72.7%59.5%30.0%15.3%6.8%
6Stefanos Tsitsipas92.2%83.8%71.8%58.6%29.4%14.9%6.5%
4Dominic Thiem91.2%81.7%68.6%53.9%35.7%15.2%5.8%
7Alexander Zverev87.3%74.4%57.8%41.6%16.1%6.2%1.9%
8Matteo Berrettini83.0%66.7%47.7%31.0%10.2%3.1%0.8%
15Denis Shapovalov83.1%67.1%47.5%14.2%7.0%2.2%0.6%
9Roberto Bautista Agut81.9%64.8%44.9%21.0%6.7%2.0%0.5%
18Alex De Minaur81.7%64.3%40.3%15.1%5.7%1.7%0.4%
16Stanislas Wawrinka81.2%63.6%43.5%12.0%5.7%1.7%0.4%
10Gael Monfils80.3%62.1%41.8%18.4%5.4%1.5%0.3%
23Andrey Rublev81.0%63.2%38.8%14.0%5.2%1.5%0.3%
27Pablo Carreno Busta80.3%62.1%20.2%12.2%4.3%1.2%0.3%
30Nick Kyrgios79.0%60.0%18.7%10.9%3.7%1.0%0.2%
29Jo Wilfried Tsonga78.6%59.2%17.9%10.4%3.5%1.0%0.2%
13Kei Nishikori77.1%56.9%35.7%8.4%3.5%0.9%0.2%
14Diego Sebastian Schwartzman76.4%55.9%34.6%8.0%3.2%0.8%0.1%
12Fabio Fognini74.9%53.6%32.1%12.1%2.9%0.6%0.1%
11David Goffin74.8%53.3%31.8%12.0%2.9%0.7%0.1%
17Karen Khachanov74.2%52.3%27.4%8.0%2.3%0.5%0.1%
Marin Cilic66.2%36.1%17.7%6.9%2.1%0.5%0.1%
Filip Krajinovic65.8%35.8%17.5%6.8%2.1%0.5%0.1%
Kevin Anderson64.5%34.3%16.3%6.1%1.8%0.4%0.1%
Reilly Opelka62.1%31.4%14.2%5.1%1.3%0.3%0.0%
20Grigor Dimitrov71.6%48.5%23.9%6.4%1.7%0.4%0.0%
Andy Murray62.9%32.3%14.8%5.3%1.5%0.3%0.0%
22Lucas Pouille70.7%47.2%22.7%5.9%1.5%0.3%0.0%
Tomas Berdych60.3%28.8%12.2%4.1%1.0%0.2%0.0%
Jannik Sinner60.0%28.8%12.3%4.1%1.0%0.2%0.0%
26Nikoloz Basilashvili68.4%43.7%9.5%4.3%1.0%0.2%0.0%
28Borna Coric68.8%44.5%9.8%4.4%1.0%0.2%0.0%
Jeremy Chardy59.5%27.9%11.7%3.8%0.9%0.2%0.0%
Juan Martin Del Potro58.7%27.2%11.1%3.5%0.9%0.2%0.0%
19John Isner67.9%43.5%19.5%4.7%1.1%0.2%0.0%
Yoshihito Nishioka57.2%25.4%10.0%3.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%
Hubert Hurkacz55.6%24.1%9.3%2.7%0.7%0.1%0.0%
Gilles Simon52.3%20.8%7.3%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
31Milos Raonic64.7%39.3%7.6%3.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%
21Felix Auger Aliassime63.5%37.7%15.0%3.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Emil Ruusuvuori53.3%21.7%7.8%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Fernando Verdasco54.8%23.2%8.7%2.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Mikael Ymer57.2%25.6%10.1%3.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%
Jan Lennard Struff55.3%23.6%8.9%2.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%
32Taylor Harry Fritz63.2%37.3%6.9%2.7%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Philipp Kohlschreiber54.3%22.7%8.3%2.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Sam Querrey56.2%24.5%9.4%2.7%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Andreas Seppi49.1%17.7%5.7%1.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%
Radu Albot53.1%21.7%7.7%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Kyle Edmund54.2%22.7%8.3%2.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
John Millman52.2%20.4%6.9%1.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%
Tommy Paul51.0%19.4%6.6%1.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%
Feliciano Lopez50.2%18.8%6.3%1.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%
Daniel Evans52.5%21.0%7.4%1.9%0.4%0.0%0.0%
Richard Gasquet50.0%18.6%6.0%1.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%
Mikhail Kukushkin52.2%20.7%7.2%1.9%0.4%0.0%0.0%
Aljaz Bedene57.1%25.3%9.9%3.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%
Francis Tiafoe46.1%15.5%4.5%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Ugo Humbert51.3%19.9%6.7%1.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%
Albert Ramos47.2%16.2%4.8%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Tennys Sandgren34.6%8.0%1.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Ivo Karlovic40.8%11.6%2.7%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Egor Gerasimov47.5%16.4%4.9%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Cameron Norrie47.6%16.3%4.9%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Leonardo Mayer41.3%11.8%2.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Jiri Vesely42.4%12.6%3.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Soon Woo Kwon41.1%11.9%2.9%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Damir Dzumhur42.8%13.0%3.5%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Casper Ruud40.3%11.3%2.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Dennis Novak42.7%12.9%3.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Christian Garin47.6%16.6%5.0%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%
25Guido Pella56.3%29.0%4.3%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Alexei Popyrin44.1%13.9%3.8%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Jaume Munar27.2%4.8%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Denis Kudla24.9%3.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Henri Laaksonen21.8%2.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Gianluca Mager16.6%1.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Yasutaka Uchiyama41.8%12.2%3.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Gregoire Barrere44.0%14.0%3.8%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Hugo Dellien21.2%2.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Evgeny Donskoy30.8%6.1%1.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Federico Delbonis33.5%7.4%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Antonie Hoang31.1%6.3%1.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Joao Sousa43.0%13.0%3.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Alexander Bublik44.8%14.1%3.9%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Marcos Giron36.2%8.7%1.8%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Miomir Kecmanovic37.9%9.8%2.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Christopher Oconnell33.8%7.5%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kamil Majchrzak33.5%7.4%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Thiago Monteiro26.0%4.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Pablo Andujar34.0%7.7%1.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Pablo Cuevas39.3%10.6%2.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Stefano Travaglia27.0%4.5%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Marton Fucsovics47.3%16.5%4.9%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Ricardas Berankis45.9%15.3%4.4%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina39.6%10.7%2.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Adrian Mannarino49.5%18.3%5.9%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Yannick Maden26.7%4.3%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
James Duckworth30.8%6.3%1.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Nicolas Jarry27.7%4.5%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Laslo Djere20.2%2.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Corentin Moutet24.3%3.6%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Go Soeda24.0%3.4%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Pierre Hugues Herbert44.4%14.1%3.9%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Marco Cecchinato18.6%1.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
24Benoit Paire57.6%30.6%10.4%1.8%0.3%0.0%0.0%
Juan Ignacio Londero23.5%3.3%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Brayden Schnur21.5%2.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Dominik Koepfer42.0%12.5%3.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Yuichi Sugita28.3%5.0%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Norbert Gombos28.9%5.2%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Dusan Lajovic37.6%9.7%2.2%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Peter Gojowczyk33.2%7.2%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Lorenzo Sonego35.9%8.6%1.8%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Thomas Fabbiano21.5%2.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Andrej Martin13.3%1.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Federico Coria10.8%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Steve Johnson41.4%12.1%3.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Jason Jung26.3%4.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Taro Daniel28.8%5.3%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Salvatore Caruso28.5%5.1%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Roberto Carballes Baena34.3%7.9%1.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Lloyd George Muirhead Harris41.2%11.9%3.0%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Prajnesh Gunneswaran27.7%4.8%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Marcel Granollers32.7%7.1%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Paolo Lorenzi23.2%3.3%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jordan Thompson45.0%14.5%4.2%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%