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Here's an early look at a forecast for the next major. This report builds a hypothetical 128-player draw and seeds the top 32 using the current official rankings. 100,000 random brackets (following conventional seeding rules) are generated, then simulated using the current surface-weighted Elo ratings.

The results are sorted by each player's probability of winning the title. Here is the most recent forecast for the 2020 Men's Australian Open:

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2020-01-20

SeedPlayerR64R32R16QFSFFW
29Nikoloz Basilashvili50.2%25.0%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
John Millman49.8%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Pablo Andujar50.1%25.3%12.8%6.5%3.2%1.6%0.8%
15Stanislas Wawrinka49.9%24.8%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Brayden Schnur50.2%25.1%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Leonardo Mayer49.8%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.2%1.7%0.8%
James Duckworth50.0%25.1%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Gianluca Mager50.0%25.0%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
8Matteo Berrettini50.1%25.1%12.6%6.2%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Marco Cecchinato50.0%25.0%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Norbert Gombos50.0%24.9%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
10Gael Monfils49.9%24.9%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Tommy Paul49.9%24.8%12.5%6.2%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Ivo Karlovic50.0%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Stefano Travaglia49.7%24.8%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Francis Tiafoe50.0%25.0%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Taylor Harry Fritz50.3%25.2%12.6%6.4%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Thomas Fabbiano50.0%25.2%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
7Alexander Zverev49.8%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.3%1.7%0.8%
20Grigor Dimitrov50.2%25.1%12.6%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
9Roberto Bautista Agut49.6%24.8%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Ricardas Berankis50.2%25.2%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Yasutaka Uchiyama50.0%25.2%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
17Karen Khachanov50.3%25.2%12.8%6.4%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Joao Sousa50.0%25.1%12.7%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Jannik Sinner50.2%25.2%12.6%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina50.2%25.1%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Denis Kudla49.7%24.8%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Albert Ramos50.1%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Christopher Oconnell50.0%25.1%12.7%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Alexander Bublik49.9%25.0%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Kevin Anderson49.9%24.9%12.3%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Sam Querrey50.3%25.2%12.7%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Reilly Opelka50.1%25.1%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Roberto Carballes Baena49.8%24.8%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Yannick Maden49.8%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Kamil Majchrzak50.2%25.0%12.4%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Corentin Moutet50.0%25.1%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Emil Ruusuvuori49.8%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Marcos Giron50.1%25.0%12.7%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
32Daniel Evans50.4%25.1%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
28Borna Coric49.7%24.7%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Milos Raonic50.1%25.1%12.7%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Mikael Ymer50.1%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
5Dominic Thiem50.0%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Ugo Humbert50.1%25.0%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Christian Garin49.8%24.9%12.3%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Feliciano Lopez50.0%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
6Stefanos Tsitsipas50.2%25.1%12.6%6.3%3.0%1.5%0.8%
Dominik Koepfer50.0%24.9%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Aljaz Bedene50.0%25.4%12.8%6.4%3.2%1.6%0.8%
21Benoit Paire49.9%24.9%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Laslo Djere49.9%25.1%12.6%6.4%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Tennys Sandgren50.0%24.8%12.4%6.1%3.0%1.6%0.8%
Gregoire Barrere49.9%24.9%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Antonie Hoang50.2%25.2%12.6%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Cameron Norrie49.8%24.9%12.5%6.2%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Soon Woo Kwon49.9%25.1%12.5%6.1%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Go Soeda50.2%25.1%12.6%6.4%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Nicolas Jarry50.0%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Jason Jung50.1%25.0%12.5%6.1%3.0%1.5%0.8%
Jan Lennard Struff50.0%25.1%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Paolo Lorenzi49.9%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Federico Coria49.8%24.9%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
16Andrey Rublev50.2%25.3%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Jeremy Chardy50.2%25.1%12.6%6.4%3.2%1.5%0.8%
Marton Fucsovics50.1%25.0%12.6%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Andrej Martin50.3%25.1%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
11David Goffin50.0%24.8%12.5%6.2%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Radu Albot50.2%25.1%12.6%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Filip Krajinovic49.9%24.9%12.4%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Dennis Novak50.3%24.9%12.6%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Juan Ignacio Londero50.0%25.0%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Attila Balazs49.8%24.8%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Miomir Kecmanovic49.9%25.1%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Prajnesh Gunneswaran49.9%24.8%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
31Hubert Hurkacz49.7%24.8%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
22Felix Auger Aliassime50.1%25.2%12.6%6.4%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Pablo Cuevas49.9%24.9%12.3%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Pierre Hugues Herbert49.7%24.8%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Federico Delbonis50.0%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
24Lucas Pouille49.9%24.9%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Yoshihito Nishioka50.1%25.0%12.4%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Adrian Mannarino50.0%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Taro Daniel50.1%25.1%12.5%6.2%3.0%1.5%0.8%
Richard Gasquet49.8%24.9%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.5%0.8%
18Kei Nishikori49.9%24.8%12.3%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Lorenzo Sonego50.0%24.9%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
12Fabio Fognini49.9%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
4Daniil Medvedev50.0%25.2%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Andy Murray49.9%25.0%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Thiago Monteiro50.1%24.9%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
26Nick Kyrgios50.1%24.9%12.4%6.1%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Hyeon Chung49.9%24.9%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Hugo Dellien49.9%24.9%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
14Diego Sebastian Schwartzman49.8%24.8%12.3%6.1%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Philipp Kohlschreiber49.8%25.0%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Jiri Vesely50.3%25.3%12.8%6.4%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Damir Dzumhur49.9%24.9%12.4%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Kyle Edmund49.9%24.9%12.4%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Marin Cilic50.0%24.9%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
27Dusan Lajovic50.4%25.1%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
30Pablo Carreno Busta50.0%25.0%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
25Guido Pella50.2%25.1%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.8%
Mikhail Kukushkin50.3%25.2%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Evgeny Donskoy50.1%25.0%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Salvatore Caruso50.1%24.9%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Peter Gojowczyk50.3%24.9%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Jaume Munar50.1%25.0%12.5%6.3%3.2%1.6%0.8%
Egor Gerasimov49.8%24.9%12.4%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.8%
13Denis Shapovalov49.8%24.9%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.8%
Gilles Simon49.8%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.7%
23Alex De Minaur50.3%25.1%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.6%0.7%
Jo Wilfried Tsonga50.2%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.7%
Andreas Seppi50.0%25.0%12.5%6.4%3.1%1.5%0.7%
19John Isner49.9%24.8%12.3%6.1%3.0%1.5%0.7%
2Novak Djokovic49.8%24.8%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.7%
Yuichi Sugita50.0%25.2%12.5%6.2%3.0%1.5%0.7%
Alexei Popyrin49.9%24.9%12.2%6.2%3.1%1.6%0.7%
Lloyd George Muirhead Harris49.8%25.0%12.4%6.2%3.0%1.5%0.7%
1Rafael Nadal49.9%25.0%12.4%6.1%3.1%1.5%0.7%
Casper Ruud49.9%24.7%12.2%6.0%3.0%1.5%0.7%
Henri Laaksonen50.2%25.0%12.5%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.7%
Juan Martin Del Potro49.6%24.8%12.3%6.1%3.0%1.5%0.7%
Jordan Thompson49.8%24.9%12.5%6.2%3.0%1.5%0.7%
Fernando Verdasco50.0%25.0%12.5%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.7%
3Roger Federer50.0%25.0%12.4%6.2%3.1%1.5%0.7%
Steve Johnson50.0%25.1%12.6%6.3%3.1%1.5%0.7%