ATP Lottery Matches

It's possible to win a match despite losing more than half of all points, or to win a match despite winning fewer return points than your opponent does. I define "lottery matches" as those contests in which both players win at least 47% of points, the threshhold at which luck and clutch play take on a larger-than-usual role.

This table shows all ATP matches this year within a special category of lottery matches: those in which the winner lost more than 50% of points and/or lost more return points than his opponent did.

DR = Dominance Ratio, the ratio of return points won to opponent's return points won.
TPW = percentage of Total Points Won.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2025-06-16

DateTournamentRoundWinnerLoserScoreDRTPWPointDiff
2024-12-27United CupRRBorna CoricFelix Auger Aliassime0-6 6-4 6-40.8546.2%-13
2024-12-27United CupRRTomas MachacHubert Hurkacz7-5 3-6 6-40.9048.2%-6
2024-12-27United CupRRFlavio CobolliUgo Humbert3-6 7-6(8) 6-20.9149.4%-2
2024-12-30BrisbaneR16Reilly OpelkaMatteo Arnaldi7-6(9) 7-6(4)0.9650.9%+3
2024-12-30BrisbaneR32Jordan ThompsonMatteo Berrettini3-6 6-3 6-40.7546.7%-11
2024-12-30BrisbaneR32Alex MichelsenChristopher Oconnell6-4 4-6 7-6(10)1.0449.7%-1
2024-12-30Hong KongSFAlexandre MullerJaume Munar4-6 7-6(5) 6-41.0249.7%-1
2024-12-30Hong KongQFJuncheng ShangFabian Marozsan1-6 6-3 6-40.9548.7%-4
2024-12-30Hong KongQFJaume MunarLorenzo Musetti2-6 7-6(4) 7-50.9749.5%-2
2024-12-30Hong KongR16Fabian MarozsanAndrey Rublev7-5 3-6 6-30.8748.4%-6
2024-12-30Hong KongR32Gabriel DialloRoberto Carballes Baena4-6 7-6(4) 7-50.9950.7%+3
2025-01-06AdelaideSFFelix Auger AliassimeTommy Paul7-6(3) 3-6 6-40.8848.5%-6
2025-01-06AdelaideR16Tommy PaulManuel Guinard6-4 3-6 6-30.9349.7%-1
2025-01-06AdelaideR16Felix Auger AliassimeArthur Cazaux1-6 6-4 7-51.0549.7%-1
2025-01-06AdelaideR16Thanasi KokkinakisTomas Martin Etcheverry7-5 4-6 7-6(4)0.8448.6%-6
2025-01-06AdelaideR32Manuel GuinardRoman Safiullin7-6(4) 2-6 6-11.0050.8%+3
2025-01-06AucklandSFGael MonfilsNishesh Basavareddy7-6(5) 6-40.7549.7%-1
2025-01-06AucklandR16Nuno BorgesMariano Navone4-6 7-5 6-40.9950.2%+1
2025-01-06AucklandR32Gael MonfilsPedro Martinez1-6 7-6(5) 6-30.9048.5%-5
2025-01-06AucklandR32Lorenzo SonegoGabriel Diallo7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)0.9049.1%-4
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128Sebastian KordaLukas Klein6-3 0-6 6-3 7-6(6)0.9348.9%-5
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128Quentin HalysAdam Walton4-6 4-6 6-4 7-6(4) 7-50.9449.5%-3
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64Corentin MoutetMitchell Krueger4-6 6-4 7-6(3) 6-40.9850.0%0
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64Learner TienDaniil Medvedev6-3 7-6(4) 6-7(8) 1-6 7-6(7)0.9449.2%-6
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64Aleksandar VukicSebastian Korda6-4 3-6 2-6 6-3 7-50.9249.8%-1
2025-01-13Australian OpenR32Alejandro Davidovich FokinaJakub Mensik3-6 4-6 7-6(7) 6-4 6-20.9850.3%+2
2025-01-27MontpellierSFAleksandar KovacevicAndrey Rublev7-5 6-40.9752.3%+6
2025-01-27MontpellierR16Tallon GriekspoorRichard Gasquet6-3 3-6 7-50.9650.5%+2
2025-01-27MontpellierR32Arthur RinderknechHarold Mayot7-6(2) 2-6 6-10.8850.8%+3
2025-01-27MontpellierR32Aleksandar KovacevicDavid Goffin6-2 3-6 6-40.9550.0%0
2025-02-03DallasSFCasper RuudJaume Munar6-2 2-6 7-6(4)0.9649.2%-3
2025-02-03DallasR16Denis ShapovalovTaylor Fritz2-6 6-3 7-6(2)0.9150.5%+2
2025-02-03DallasR16Reilly OpelkaCameron Norrie4-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9649.8%-1
2025-02-03DallasR32Cameron NorrieAlex Michelsen2-6 7-6(1) 6-10.8348.9%-4
2025-02-03RotterdamR16Mattia BellucciDaniil Medvedev6-3 6-7(6) 6-30.9050.4%+2
2025-02-03RotterdamR32Fabian MarozsanJan Lennard Struff6-3 4-6 7-6(3)0.9950.8%+3
2025-02-03RotterdamR32Tallon GriekspoorMatteo Berrettini6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(4)0.6948.7%-5
2025-02-10Buenos AiresQFJoao FonsecaMariano Navone3-6 6-4 7-50.9749.5%-2
2025-02-10Buenos AiresR32Pedro MartinezDamir Dzumhur0-6 6-2 7-6(3)1.0050.0%0
2025-02-10Buenos AiresR32Diego SchwartzmanNicolas Jarry7-6(10) 4-6 6-30.8949.5%-2
2025-02-10Delray BeachQFAlejandro Davidovich FokinaTaylor Fritz7-6(4) 7-6(5)0.9850.6%+2
2025-02-10MarseilleR32Pierre Hugues HerbertHarold Mayot2-6 7-5 6-30.9850.5%+2
2025-02-10MarseilleR32Otto VirtanenSebastian Korda6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-40.9550.2%+1
2025-02-10MarseilleR32Luca Van AsscheBenjamin Bonzi3-6 6-3 7-6(7)0.9650.5%+2
2025-02-17DohaQFJiri LeheckaCarlos Alcaraz6-3 3-6 6-40.8748.8%-4
2025-02-17DohaR32Hamad MedjedovicStefanos Tsitsipas7-6(6) 5-7 7-6(5)0.8348.2%-8
2025-02-17Rio de JaneiroR16Francisco ComesanaNicolas Jarry7-6(4) 6-7(1) 7-6(6)0.7547.9%-10
2025-02-17Rio de JaneiroR16Sebastian BaezMariano Navone6-4 1-6 6-30.9549.4%-2
2025-02-17Rio de JaneiroR32Thiago MonteiroFacundo Diaz Acosta3-6 6-3 7-6(3)0.9449.5%-2
2025-02-24AcapulcoSFTomas MachacBrandon Nakashima6-4 1-6 6-40.9548.8%-4
2025-02-24AcapulcoR32Alexander ZverevMatteo Arnaldi6-7(2) 6-3 6-40.9851.1%+4
2025-02-24AcapulcoR32Alex MichelsenBu Yunchaokete2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)0.9449.1%-4
2025-02-24DubaiQFTallon GriekspoorDaniil Medvedev2-6 7-6(7) 7-50.8848.0%-9
2025-02-24DubaiQFStefanos TsitsipasMatteo Berrettini7-6(5) 1-6 6-40.7447.0%-10
2025-02-24DubaiQFQuentin HalysLuca Nardi2-6 6-3 7-6(5)0.8148.4%-6
2025-02-24DubaiR16Stefanos TsitsipasKaren Khachanov7-6(4) 2-6 6-41.0349.8%-1
2025-02-24DubaiR16Marin CilicAlexei Popyrin5-7 6-3 6-40.8249.4%-2
2025-02-24DubaiR32Tallon GriekspoorRoman Safiullin5-7 7-6(4) 7-6(1)0.9249.8%-1
2025-02-24DubaiR32Luca NardiMarton Fucsovics1-6 6-2 6-30.9751.1%+4
2025-02-24DubaiR32Roberto Bautista AgutFabian Marozsan3-6 6-3 7-6(4)0.9249.8%-1
2025-02-24DubaiR32Quentin HalysAndrey Rublev3-6 6-4 7-6(5)0.9349.7%-1
2025-02-24SantiagoFLaslo DjereSebastian Baez6-4 3-6 7-50.9849.5%-2
2025-02-24SantiagoR16Damir DzumhurMariano Navone6-4 3-6 6-30.9349.7%-1
2025-02-24SantiagoR32Thiago MonteiroJuan Manuel Cerundolo6-3 3-6 7-6(2)0.9549.0%-4
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR32Arthur FilsLorenzo Musetti3-6 7-6(4) 6-30.9750.3%+1
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR64Tallon GriekspoorAlexander Zverev4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4)0.9149.8%-1
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR64Cameron NorrieJiri Lehecka3-6 6-4 7-50.8748.8%-5
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR64Hubert HurkaczHugo Gaston7-5 6-30.9852.3%+6
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR128Damir DzumhurRoberto Bautista Agut6-4 1-6 7-6(4)0.9648.4%-6
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR128Gabriel DialloZhizhen Zhang2-6 6-2 7-6(7)0.9249.0%-4
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR128Jenson BrooksbyBenjamin Bonzi1-6 7-5 7-50.9849.5%-2
2025-03-19Miami MastersFJakub MensikNovak Djokovic7-6(4) 7-6(4)0.9750.0%0
2025-03-19Miami MastersR16Matteo BerrettiniAlex De Minaur6-3 7-6(7)0.9951.3%+4
2025-03-19Miami MastersR16Sebastian KordaGael Monfils6-4 2-6 6-40.9749.4%-2
2025-03-19Miami MastersR32Adam WaltonColeman Wong7-6(6) 4-6 6-40.9649.8%-1
2025-03-19Miami MastersR64Coleman WongBen Shelton7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(5)0.8047.3%-11
2025-03-19Miami MastersR64Zizou BergsAndrey Rublev7-5 6-40.7144.4%-16
2025-03-19Miami MastersR64Lorenzo MusettiQuentin Halys3-6 7-6(4) 7-50.9550.2%+1
2025-03-19Miami MastersR64Camilo Ugo CarabelliAlex Michelsen6-7(3) 7-5 6-30.9851.0%+4
2025-03-19Miami MastersR64Casper RuudMiomir Kecmanovic3-6 6-4 6-40.9350.6%+2
2025-03-19Miami MastersR128Jacob FearnleyBenjamin Bonzi7-6(6) 2-6 6-40.8848.0%-8
2025-03-19Miami MastersR128Roman SafiullinJenson Brooksby6-3 3-6 6-30.9350.6%+2
2025-03-19Miami MastersR128Camilo Ugo CarabelliBrandon Holt2-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9549.0%-4
2025-03-19Miami MastersR128Miomir KecmanovicAleksandar Kovacevic6-4 6-40.9652.2%+6
2025-03-31HoustonSFJenson BrooksbyTommy Paul7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(6)0.9248.2%-8
2025-03-31HoustonR16Tommy PaulCristian Garin2-6 6-2 7-6(5)1.0249.8%-1
2025-03-31HoustonR32Corentin DenollyBrandon Holt7-6(7) 7-6(8)0.8949.5%-2
2025-03-31MarrakechFLuciano DarderiTallon Griekspoor7-6(3) 7-6(4)0.9850.0%0
2025-04-07Monte Carlo MastersSFLorenzo MusettiAlex De Minaur1-6 6-4 7-6(4)0.9047.6%-9
2025-04-07Monte Carlo MastersR32Alexei PopyrinFrances Tiafoe3-6 6-3 6-31.0049.4%-2
2025-04-07Monte Carlo MastersR64Alejandro TabiloStan Wawrinka1-6 7-5 7-50.9849.1%-4
2025-04-07Monte Carlo MastersR64Marcos GironDenis Shapovalov6-3 7-6(5)0.9051.0%+3
2025-04-14MunichSFBen SheltonFrancisco Cerundolo2-6 7-6(7) 6-40.9549.5%-2
2025-04-14MunichR32Alexander ShevchenkoFlavio Cobolli6-7(2) 6-3 6-40.9950.4%+2
2025-04-14MunichR32Mariano NavoneFelix Auger Aliassime2-6 6-4 7-6(3)0.9248.9%-5
2025-04-14MunichR32Ben SheltonBorna Gojo4-6 7-6(6) 7-6(3)0.7849.3%-3
2025-04-23Madrid MastersSFCasper RuudFrancisco Cerundolo6-4 7-50.9550.0%0
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16Francisco CerundoloAlexander Zverev7-5 6-30.8953.0%+7
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16Matteo ArnaldiFrances Tiafoe6-3 7-50.9952.8%+7
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16Gabriel DialloGrigor Dimitrov5-7 7-6(7) 6-40.9549.7%-1
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR32Alexander ZverevAlejandro Davidovich Fokina2-6 7-6(3) 7-6(0)1.0449.5%-2
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR32Alexander BublikAndrey Rublev6-4 0-6 6-40.7947.1%-8
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR64Juan Manuel CerundoloFelix Auger Aliassime7-6(5) 6-40.9951.4%+4
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR64Tommy PaulJoao Fonseca7-6(7) 7-6(3)0.9850.8%+3
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR128Gael MonfilsBorna Gojo1-6 6-2 6-40.9449.7%-1
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR128Juan Manuel CerundoloAleksandar Kovacevic3-6 7-5 6-21.0051.3%+5
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR128Marcos GironLearner Tien6-1 1-6 7-6(4)0.9549.5%-2
2025-05-07Rome MastersR16Hubert HurkaczJakub Mensik7-6(5) 4-6 7-6(5)0.8949.4%-3
2025-05-07Rome MastersR16Carlos AlcarazKaren Khachanov6-3 3-6 7-50.9349.2%-3
2025-05-07Rome MastersR64Holger RuneFrancisco Comesana3-6 6-3 6-40.9450.4%+2
2025-05-07Rome MastersR128Marcos GironGabriel Diallo3-6 6-3 6-41.0050.6%+2
2025-05-07Rome MastersR128Matteo GiganteArthur Rinderknech7-6(4) 7-6(4)0.9851.1%+4
2025-05-07Rome MastersR128Carlos TabernerAleksandar Kovacevic6-3 1-6 7-51.0049.4%-2
2025-05-07Rome MastersR128Alexandre MullerJiri Lehecka2-6 6-3 7-6(5)0.9649.3%-3
2025-05-07Rome MastersR128Vilius GaubasDamir Dzumhur7-6(3) 2-6 6-41.0050.5%+2
2025-05-18HamburgSFFlavio CobolliTomas Martin Etcheverry2-6 7-5 6-40.9549.3%-3
2025-05-18HamburgR32Justin EngelJan Lennard Struff7-6(4) 7-6(4)0.8349.7%-1
2025-06-09s HertogenboschR32Zizou BergsAlexander Blockx6-3 1-6 7-6(3)0.8848.9%-5
2025-06-09s HertogenboschR32Daniel EvansRinky Hijikata3-6 6-4 6-30.9850.0%0
2025-06-09StuttgartR32Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardRoman Safiullin7-6(10) 3-6 7-50.7348.1%-8