Tuesday Topspin: Underachievers

Surprise: The top half of the draw continued to prove unpredictable–it seems the only thing we can rely on is that if Rafael Nadal faces someone outside the top 100, he’ll get the job done.  Amazingly, Rafa will face his third straight qualifier, Somdev Devvarman, in the round of 16 tomorrow.

The shock of the day belongs to Phillip Kohlschreiber, who defeated Robin Soderling is straight sets.  While Kohlschreiber is a solid player capable of great tennis, that match seemed almost as much of a lock as Nadal’s contest against Ryan Sweeting.  The German executed the upset with a stellar return game: Soderling won on 60% of his service points, and a mere 67% of first service points.  For a player with a big game like the Swede’s, the latter number should be around 80%.

The Soderling upset means that the top half of the draw is down to only one seed (Nadal) in the top sixteen.  Three of the eight spots belong to unseeded players: Devvarman, Ivo Karlovic, and Juan Martin Del Potro.

22: For one set, anyway, the most enjoyable match of the day was between Del Potro and Alexandr Dolgopolov.  The Ukrainian was on his game for much of the first set, and the two players were trading both impressive winners and remarkably defensive shots.  Delpo ended up taking a first-set tiebreak and then running away with the second set.  Neither player made more than about half of their first serves–not a good sign for the Argentine going forward, but something that made for some enjoyable points.

Underachieving: Another upset: Sam Querrey beat Fernando Verdasco in straight sets.  Based on recent returns, you might think both of these guys would figure out a way to lose the match.  Coming into the tournament, Verdasco hadn’t won a match since the semifinal in San Jose, and his victory over Richard Berankis in the second round was thanks to a retirement.

Querrey has been even less impressive.  Before beating Verdasco yesterday, he hadn’t defeated a player ranked about #50 since last year’s U.S. Open.  In the round of 16, the American draws Tommy Robredo, which makes a great opportunity for him after the early upset of Andy Murray.

Doubles champions: The men’s doubles continues to fascinate.  I always wonder just how good the top singles players would be if they regularly entered doubles events.  Based on the evidence at hand this week, the answer is: Pretty good.  Both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic won their doubles matches yesterday; Djokovic and Viktor Troicki took down the 7th-seeded duo of Lukasz Kubot and Oliver Marach.

On the card today, Nadal and Marc Lopez will play specialists Paul Hanley and Lukas Dlouhy, while the Bryan Brothers draw another wacky team, this one of Dolgopolov and Xavier Malisse.

Today’s big match(es): In contrast to the top half, the bottom half of the draw has seen virtually no upsets, leaving us with a lot of semi-predictable contests, like Tomas Berdych vs. Thomaz Bellucci and Djokovic vs. Ernests Gulbis.

One match with some potential is on Court 2: Richard Gasquet against Jurgen Melzer.  The Frenchman has been playing solid tennis of late, albeit not at a level that seems likely to take down a top-10 player.

The match that I’ll be scheduling my day around is the result of the only two seeded losses in the bottom half.  Fourth match, Court 2: Milos Raonic vs. Ryan Harrison.  Raonic, obviously, has been playing outstanding tennis all year.  Harrison hasn’t been at the same level, but he’s beaten both Jeremy Chardy and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to get here.  This is a matchup we’ll probably be watching for the better part of the next decade, and in another year or two, it won’t be happening in the round of 32 any more.

Best of all, the winner draws Federer.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Topspin: On Schedule

Predictable: If Saturday was a day of upsets, Sunday put things back to normal.  In the top half of the draw, only 10 of 16 seeds survived to the third round.  In the bottom half matches, played yesterday, 14 seeds got through.

And of the two upsets, one wasn’t really a surprise.  Milos Raonic boomed another ten aces and converted both of his break point opportunities to beat Mardy Fish in straight sets.  Raonic served himself out of trouble over and over again; Fish couldn’t do anything with eight break chances of his own.

In the other upset, you have to tip your cap to Ryan Harrison.  After a tough match with Jeremy Chardy, he dealt a straight-set defeat to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, a Spainard who has had plenty of success on hard courts.  As in the Raonic match, it was all about converting the break points–Harrison turned 5 of 7 to his favor, while GGL managed only 4 of 11.  In the topsy-turvy match, there were five breaks of serve en route to Harrison’s 6-3 first set.

The two upsets set up quite the show for Tuesday: Raonic and Harrison, the two youngest guys left in the draw, go head to head.  The winner of that match probably sees Roger Federer in the fourth round.

Speaking of: Federer won a squeaker over Igor Andreev, 7-5, 7-6(4).  Andreev has always given the Swiss his share of problems, and yesterday was no different.  I watched most of the match, and came away thinking Federer is playing just fine; the close score says more about a great performance from the Russian than any weakness on the part of the 2-seed.

Next up, Federer draws Juan Ignacio Chela, which you have to assume will be easier for Roger than yesterday’s was.

Andy Roddick also had a work a bit harder than expected in his match against James Blake.  Blake is hardly in top form, but he showed flashes of brilliance, including one cross-court forehand winner clocked at 102 mph.  Blake was all smiles at the end of the match, which makes me think he recognized his own solid performance.

For his part, Roddick gets another all-American battle on Tuesday, when he will take on John Isner.

Today: There are eight men’s singles matches, comprising the third round in the top half of the draw, including Rafael Nadal (against Ryan Sweeting) and Robin Soderling (taking on Phillip Kohlschreiber).  For all that, the two highlights of the day are the matches with the lowest seeds.

Juan Martin del Potro attempts to continue his comeback against Alexandr Dolgopolov, a man who also has something to prove.  It should be fascinating to watch Delpo try to boss Dolgopolov around the court, only to find that the Ukrainian has a whole lot of answers.

Competing for a likely shot at Nadal, Xavier Malisse and Somdev Devvarman make up my other highlight of the day.  Devvarman may be playing as well as he ever has, and it’s always fun to watch someone as fast as he is.  Malisse is a proven giant-killer, having taken out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga two days ago, but he doesn’t always perform as well against guys at his own level.

Elsewhere: There are no new rankings until Indian Wells is over, but there are a handful of tournament winners worth noting.  German qualifier Cedrik-Marcel Stebe lost in the final of the Kyoto challenger to Dominik Meffert, which still represents a huge step forward for the 20-year-old.  The Germans dominated that event, representing six of the eight places in the quarterfinals and both finalists.

The young Russian Evgeny Donskoy continues his winning ways on clay; a couple of weeks ago he took the challenger title in Casablanca; yesterday, he beat Simone Vagnozzi to triumph at Spain F7.  It’s not quite as prestigious, nor are there as many ranking points to be had, but Vagnozzi is a credible opponent, and Donskoy continues to establish his reputation as a force to watch on slow surfaces.

Finally, at the challenger in Sarajevo, Amer Delic took the title after Karol Beck withdrew.  Playing at home, Delic made a huge step in his return from injury; it was his first tournament win at any level since May of 2008.  The Bosnian once broke into the top 60 and reached the third round of the Australian Open, so as long as he can stay healthy, we’ll probably be seeing him at higher levels soon.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at some of the fields in this weeks challenger- and futures-level events. In the meantime, enjoy the tennis!

Sunday Topspin: Young and Restless

Upset central: Indian Wells is turning into a huge event for American tennis.  As I noted yesterday, U.S. players took six of their seven first round matches.  I assumed that all those qualifiers and wild cards would collapse in the second round once they started playing the big boys.

Not exactly.  To start with, Donald Young beat Andy Murray in straight sets.  I was only able to watch the first-set tiebreak, but as usual, we can cast this match as a Murray disappointment, not necessarily a Young triumph.  The Brit was counterpunching against a guy without a lot of big weapons, and wasn’t doing it well enough.

Murray made fewer than half of first serves, and even against a qualifier, that’s not going to do the job.  Young made only 53% of his first offerings, but managed to win nearly half of his second serve points, while Murray won nearly a quarter.  Ugly match for Andy.

That said, it is a huge step for Young.  After that tiebreak, I assumed Murray would put his game back together and Young would collapse under the pressure.  If anything, the exact opposite happened.  The upset is the best result of Young’s career–by far–and allows us all to remember that he’s still only 21, younger than the likes of Alexandr Dolgopolov, Ernests Gulbis, and Thiemo de Bakker, and only a few months older than Kei Nishikori.

Murray was the American’s first top-10 scalp–indeed, the only matches I found where Donald beat a top-50 player were two victories over Feliciano Lopez.  Wow.

The other two American qualifiers in action went to three sets in equally surprising fashion.  Ryan Sweeting, coming off a solid week in Delray Beach and a clean win over Marcel Granollers, beat Juan Monaco with one of the weirdest scores you’ll ever see: 6-1, 0-6, 6-1.  Despite his reputation as a clay-courter, Monaco has posted some good results on hard courts, so I didn’t see this one coming.

Tim Smyczek lost his match to Phillip Kohlschreiber, but he will go home proud of his effort.  Outside of the top 150 for his entire career, he edged past Ilya Marchenko in the first round, and took Kohlschreiber to a third-set tiebreak.

Finally, if we’re keeping score for the Americans, we have to mention Sam Querrey‘s straight-set win over Janko Tipsarevic and Michael Russell‘s loss to Nicholas Almagro.  That’s 9 wins in 12 matches so far for the locals.

More upsets: Somdev Devvarman scored a victory almost as big as Young’s.  Marcos Baghdatis is as inconsistent as it gets, and Devvarman simply outran him, winning the second set 6-0.  Perhaps the Indian’s solid showing against Federer in Dubai and in Davis Cup have given him some confidence; it’s quite possibly his best career match result, and only the second time he’s beaten a top-20 player.

Two matches I didn’t see: David Ferrer lost to Ivo Karlovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga fell to Xavier Malisse.

All these upsets really open up the draw.  Tsonga and Baghdatis were set up for a third-round match; instead, it’s Devvarman and Malisse.  The winner will face Rafael Nadal in the fourth round, meaning that Rafa (assuming he beats Sweeting tomorrow) won’t face a seeded player until at least the quarters.

What to watch: For the second, round, there are some phenomenal matches on the slate:

  • Milos Raonic vs. Mardy Fish: A big test for the Canadian.  Sportsbooks give Raonic a 58% chance of winning; that’s really saying something against a hard-court-friendly U.S. player inside the top 20.  The winner is probably punching his ticket to a fourth-round matchup with Roger Federer.
  • Nikolay Davydenko vs. Stanislas Wawrinka: My ranking system still loves Davydenko on hard courts, thanks in part to his win over Nadal in January.  Wawrinka, though, has to be considered the steadier player at this point; Vegas odds favor the Swiss at about 57%.
  • Andy Roddick vs. James Blake: Even though we know how this one’s going to turn out, there will be some spectacular shotmaking along the way, and the crowd will love it.
  • Novak Djokovic vs. Andrey Golubev: Remember, Golubev just won two matches in Davis Cup, including the triumph against Tomas Berdych.  He’ll make Djokovic work for this one.

See you tomorrow!

Saturday Topspin: American Underdogs

Good day for teens: It wasn’t easy, but both Bernard Tomic and Ryan Harrison find themselves in the second round at Indian Wells.  Tomic had a  hard-fought match against surprise qualifier and doubles specialist Rohan Bopanna, splitting two tiebreaks before the Aussie came out ahead in the third.  The two players won 75% of points on serve, an astonishingly high number for both sides to sustain.

Harrison’s match looks similar–two tiebreaks then a third set with a wider margin, but the profile is far different.  He and Jeremy Chardy broke each other seven times in a total of 22 break chances.  Harrison advances to face Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, while Tomic draws Viktor Troicki.

Doubles upsets: When Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal win matches, you usually don’t think of them as upsets, but when they are playing doubles against the likes of Mirnyi/Nestor and Fyrstenberg/Matkowski?  Not only did Federer and Nadal win their matches, but Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray did, as well.

Come to think of it, this doubles draw is astonishingly good, and not just in the sense that it’s star-studded.  Tournament organizers like their top seeds to play doubles to draw the crowds, and often those players make quick exits, as when Djokovic partnered with his brother in Dubai.  But Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka are Olympic champions, Nadal and Marc Lopez are the defending champions, and Murray and his brother won a title recently.

Most of the marquee doubles matches were on yesterday’s schedule, but today, Bopanna and Aisam Qureshi play their, opener, and the Bryan Brothers face the very unlikely team of Feliciano Lopez and Milos Raonic.  Is that more or less likely than Harrison and Thomaz Bellucci?  If only there were more televised doubles.

Home court advantage: Not only did Harrison win yesterday, but James Blake was also victorious.  Blake broke Chris Guccione three times, somehow winning 39% of return points.  That sounds a bit like the Blake of old, and we’ll probably get to enjoy it for exactly one more match this week, as he’ll play Andy Roddick in a promoter’s dream match tomorrow.

If my count is right, that’s six wins in seven tries for Americans so far–only Alex Bogomolov failed to advance.  Even more impressive, virtually every one of those Americans was the underdog, at least on paper.  Of the six winners, four were qualifiers and two were wild cards.

Of course, there are four more Americans in the draw; they got to the second round by virtue of their seeding.  Of those four, Sam Querrey is the only one in action today, playing Janko Tipsarevic; as a sign of how far Querrey’s stock has fallen, sportsbooks are giving Tipsarevic a 59% chance of winning the match.

Yes, he won: No shocker here, Raonic defeated Marsel Ilhan in straight sets.  It was his first 1000-level win.  He recorded 10 aces in the process, perhaps on his way to setting more records.  Sunday he faces Mardy Fish.

Elsewhere: Qualifer Cedrik-Marcel Stebe defeated top seed Go Soeda in Kyoto to reach the final there.  It’s only Stebe’s third tournament this year and his first challenger, but he’s undefeated thus far.  He’ll play countryman Dominik Meffert today for the title.

At the Sarajevo challenger, the scores are more interesting than the players.  All four quarterfinal matches were decided in straight sets, and six of those eight sets were won in tiebreaks.  Dmitri Tursunov lost to Bosnian wild card Mirza Basic; the second set tiebreak went to 13-11.

Today’s matches: Now that the seeds are in action, there are some higher-profile contests.  My pick is the first match on Stadium 2, pitting Fernando Verdasco against Richard Berankis.  Verdasco hasn’t won a match since his back-to-back losses against Raonic.  You have to imagine the Spainard will come through (sportsbooks give him a 75% chance), but you never really know where Verdasco’s head is.

Enjoy the tennis!

Hard-Court Singles Rankings

If you’ve found your way here from the Wall Street Journal, welcome! If you don’t know what I’m talking about, go read what Carl Bialik has to say in today’s paper, and in an online follow-up.  I’ve written at length about my rankings and prediction system and published full odds for Indian Wells here.

As you may have read in the Wall Street Journal, my ranking system rates Federer number one.  The difference between Fed and Nadal is even more striking if we use my hard-court-specific rankings.  However, in the hard-court-specific rankings, Djokovic closes the gap quite a bit.

Before you email me to tell me what an idiot I am for publishing something so blatantly wrong, please read my description of what the system does.

The goal of these rankings isn’t to say who is the greatest of all time, or to say that any player here is guaranteed to beat anyone below him.  Instead, they are the result of an algorithm that is better than anything else I’ve seen at predicting the outcome of tennis matches.

Here are the current top 100 hard-court players, along with the hard-court rankings of several other players who are in the Indian Wells main draw:

1   Roger Federer          8579 
2   Novak Djokovic         6853 
3   Andy Murray            5013 
4   Rafael Nadal           4892 
5   Robin Soderling        4363 
6   Juan Martin del Potro  3624 
7   Nikolay Davydenko      3118 
8   David Ferrer           2913 
9   Andy Roddick           2671 
10  Tomas Berdych          2284 
11  Gael Monfils           2226 
12  Stanislas Wawrinka     2094 
13  Marcos Baghdatis       2062 
14  David Nalbandian       1967 
15  Mardy Fish             1961 
16  Marin Cilic            1779 
17  Fernando Verdasco      1709 
18  Jurgen Melzer          1615 
19  Ivan Ljubicic          1602 
20  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     1565 

21  Michael Llodra         1475 
22  Mikhail Youzhny        1317 
23  Gilles Simon           1314 
24  Florian Mayer          1312 
25  Nicolas Almagro        1305 
26  Milos Raonic           1231 
27  Alexander Dolgopolov   1223 
28  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1109 
29  Juan Monaco            1102 
30  Richard Gasquet        1091 
31  Radek Stepanek         1044 
32  Viktor Troicki         1021 
33  John Isner              901 
34  Lleyton Hewitt          883 
35  Tommy Robredo           867 
36  Albert Montanes         841 
37  Jeremy Chardy           840 
38  Ernests Gulbis          820 
39  Philipp Kohlschreiber   796 
40  Feliciano Lopez         787 

41  Samuel Querrey          773 
42  Janko Tipsarevic        734 
43  Fernando Gonzalez       711 
44  Julien Benneteau        695 
45  Kei Nishikori           686 
46  Jarkko Nieminen         638 
47  Juan Carlos Ferrero     635 
48  Dmitry Tursunov         633 
49  Xavier Malisse          588 
50  Thomaz Bellucci         578 
51  Ivo Karlovic            559 
52  Andreas Seppi           507 
53  Andrei Goloubev         488 
54  Benjamin Becker         487 
55  Michael Berrer          466 
56  Thiemo de Bakker        457 
57  Igor Andreev            455 
58  Olivier Rochus          449 
59  Philipp Petzschner      447 
60  Juan Ignacio Chela      434 

61  Fabio Fognini           434 
62  James Blake             432 
63  Pablo Cuevas            426 
64  Santiago Giraldo        413 
65  Sergey Stakhovsky       402 
66  Denis Istomin           400 
67  Ivan Dodig              389 
68  Arnaud Clement          375 
69  Michael Zverev          367 
70  Robin Haase             367 
71  Leonardo Mayer          352 
72  Robby Ginepri           351 
73  Marcel Granollers       350 
74  Daniel Brands           345 
75  Alejandro Falla         341 
76  Daniel Gimeno           341 
77  Paul-Henri Mathieu      341 
78  Mikhail Kukushkin       330 
79  Dudi Sela               325 
80  Lukasz Kubot            324 

81  Teimuraz Gabashvili     303 
82  Victor Hanescu          288 
83  Grigor Dimitrov         284 
84  Lukas Lacko             282 
85  Adrian Mannarino        279 
86  Kevin Anderson          275 
87  Florent Serra           275 
88  Simon Greul             274 
89  Potito Starace          270 
90  Edouard Roger-Vasselin  269 
91  Frank Dancevic          269 
92  Horacio Zeballos        268 
93  Richard Berankis        266 
94  Marco Chiudinelli       264 
95  Rainer Schuettler       263 
96  Ryan Harrison           262 
97  Frederico Gil           261 
98  Bernard Tomic           260 
99  Nicolas Mahut           259 
100 Tobias Kamke            259 

102 Yen-Hsun Lu             255 
104 Bjorn Phau              248 
106 Chris Guccione          247 
107 Ryan Sweeting           246 
112 Ricardo Mello           240 
114 Ilia Marchenko          236 
116 Matt Ebden              233 
120 Alex Bogomolov          228 
121 Michael Russell         226 
133 Marinko Matosevic       221 
141 Dustin Brown            217 
144 Donald Young            216 
145 Tim Smyczek             215 
147 Somdev Devvarman        215 
156 Rik de Voest            212 
174 Marsel Ilhan            208 
196 Flavio Cipolla          202 
261 Rohan Bopanna           109 
319 Pere Riba                55 
354 Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo    22

Friday Topspin: Bopanna, Blake, and a Bagel

If you’ve found your way here from the Wall Street Journal, welcome! If you don’t know what I’m talking about, go read what Carl Bialik has to say in today’s paper, and in an online follow-up.  I’ve written at length about my rankings and prediction system and published full odds for Indian Wells here.

Big day for qualifiers: 10 of the 12 qualifiers played in opening round at Indian Wells yesterday, and six of those came through with victories, including four Americans.  Because the top 32 players are seeded with byes, those six qualifier wins don’t include any massive upsets, but that doesn’t take away from the individual accomplishments.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is Michael Russell‘s victory over Kevin Anderson–Anderson is near his career high ranking and is only six weeks removed from his first career title.  Also of note is Ryan Sweeting‘s win against Marcel Granollers, a strong player on hard courts.

There are only two qualifiers in the bottom half of the draw: Rohan Bopanna, who plays the young Aussie Bernard Tomic, and Chris Guccione, who drew James Blake.

Del Potro serves a bagel: Radek Stepanek may be past his prime, but he’s still a tricky opponent.  That didn’t stop Juan Martin del Potro, who defeated the Czech 6-4 6-0.  Del Potro won an astonishing 58% of points against Stepanek’s first serve.

Next, the Argentine faces Ivan Ljubicic, and he has to be favored in that match as well.  Sure, Ljubicic is the defending champion, but his body isn’t 100%, and we have to resume looking at del Potro the way we saw him 18 months ago–he’s certainly playing that way.

On the card: The two best matches today are the ones with qualifiers involved.  Guccione played two solid matches in qualifying, going straight sets in both, needing a tiebreak only once.  Both contests were against Spanish clay-courters, though, so they hardly guarantee a good showing against Blake.  Their styles presage quite the battle, as the match pits Guccione’s serve against Blake’s once world-class return game.

And then there is Bopanna-Tomic.  Tomic is rapidly becoming a tennis “bad boy,” and not in the vaguely charming sense of Andre Agassi wanting to wear black at Wimbledon.  Bopanna, on the other hand, is impossible not to like, between his inspirational doubles partnership with Aisam Qureshi, his persistence in singles, and his hard-fought battle in last weekend’s Davis Cup.

Betting odds heavily favor Tomic, as does common sense.  But if you’re ever going to cheer for an underdog, this is the time to do it.

Everybody in: When I said “best matches” a moment ago, I might have been limiting myself to singles.  Seven of the top 10 singles players in the world are playing doubles–and that’s just on today’s schedule.

Last week I marveled at the doubles entry list, saying that “for now, all that’s missing is Federer/Wawrinka.”  Not any more.  The Swiss players are not only in the draw, but they’re on Stadium 1 today, facing in the second seeds Max Mirnyi and Daniel Nestor.  Rafael Nadal and Marc Lopez are also playing a center-court doubles match today.

More results: Indian Wells is rightfully dominating our attention, but there’s still plenty of tennis being played elsewhere.

I haven’t mentioned the Kyoto challenger at all this week–not that great of a draw, really.  But credit where credit is due: Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, a 20-year-old German, qualified for the main draw and has since plowed through the likes of Yuichi Sugita and Andre Begemann to reach the semifinals.  He’s building a great start to the season, having won two futures tournaments in Turkey.  This week’s showing should get him into the top 300 for the first time.

In Texas at USA F7, Devin Britton has qualified and reach the quarters, his best result since last September.  Also in the quarters is Wayne Odesnik, who isn’t finding the level of competition very challenging.

A little later on today, I’ll post the hard-court-specific rankings generated by my system.  Be sure to check back in a few hours.

Indian Wells Projections

If you’ve found your way here from the Wall Street Journal, welcome! If you don’t know what I’m talking about, go read what Carl Bialik has to say in today’s paper, and in an online follow-up.

I’ve developed a fairly sophisticated algorithm to predict the outcome of tennis matches.  It seeks to remedy some of the flaws in the present ranking system and do a better job of forecasting which players will perform better at certain times, on certain surfaces, against certain opponents.

In the past, I’ve written about the predictiveness of ATP ranking points–which are pretty darn good, for all their flaws.  By just about any standard, however, my system is better.  It’s not perfect–it’s far, far from it–but it does give you a valid second opinion on a player’s abilities at any given time.

The components

My algorithm does several things that traditional ranking points do not.  Here are a few of the components:

  • Points are awarded based on the quality of opponents, not on the round or tournament.  Thus, beating Mikhail Youhzny in the quarterfinals in Moscow is worth the same as the semifinals of Indian Wells.  Losing to a low-ranked player counts against you more than losing against Roger Federer.
     
  • These points, and everything else, are adjusted for surface.  Beating Federer counts for more on hard courts than on clay; beating Juan Carlos Ferrero is the opposite.
     
  • The algorithm generates a set of overall rankings, and it also generates two sets of surface-specific rankings, one for clay courts, one for everything else.  (There isn’t enough data on indoor hard courts or grass courts to treat them separately from any other type of fast court.)  So for Indian Wells, I’m using the hard-court rankings.  Of course, this drastically impacts the chances of many players.
     
  • The points awarded for any tournament are also based on how recent the event was.  Beating Andy Murray last week is more relevant than beating him last year.  Thus, Milos Raonic does better in my rankings (24th overall) than in the ATP rankings (37th).  Sure, it would help if Raonic had played more ATP-level events last year, but my algorithm recognizes that February results count for more than wins from last June.
     
  • My system considers matches from the last two years, not just one year, as the ATP rankings do.  This and the ‘recency’ adjustment remedy what I consider to be the most ridiculous part of the ATP ranking system.  A player can fall dozens of spots in the rankings simply because a tournament result “falls off.”  
     
     So, a match from 51 weeks ago tells us a lot about a player’s current skill level, but a match from 53 weeks ago does not?  In my system, both are counted; a match from 51 weeks ago counts for about 55-60% of the value of a match from last week, while a match from a few weeks earlier counts for a little less.
     
  • Grand slams count for a bit more, but not a lot more.  The main reason for this is that the winner of a five-setter is more likely to the more skilled player than the winner of a three-setter.  A couple of bad bounces in a tiebreak can turn a three-setter against you, but it’s awfully hard to win a five-setter with luck.
     
  • There is a bit of home court advantage in tennis, though with the increasing use of the challenge system (which limits officiating bias), it seems to be decreasing.  It still exists, and it’s considered.
     
  • For whatever reason, it appears that qualifiers and wild cards do worse in ATP main draw matches than my system would otherwise expect.  So they are penalized a small amount.
     
  • Finally, there is a head-to-head component.  It turns out that the head-to-head component can’t improve that much on the rankings-based algorithm, but it does have some value.  So I do consider the history of each matchup, giving a slight edge to the player who has won more matches in the past.  (Depending, of course, on how long ago it was, what surface the matches were on, and so on.)

Whew!

Thanks for reading this far.

As I post this, a few matches have already been played.  But these numbers were generated this morning, after the full draw was released.  It shows the probability that each player reaches each round of the tournament.  I’ll have a little more to say at the bottom.

Player            R64   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Nadal         100% 94.6% 78.3% 56.3% 40.1% 24.1% 13.0% 
(q)De Voest       54%  3.1%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Riba              46%  2.3%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Sweeting       42%  8.4%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Granollers        58% 17.2%  2.0%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(27)Monaco       100% 74.4% 17.7%  7.5%  2.9%  0.8%  0.2% 
(19)Baghdatis    100% 86.1% 52.9% 21.3% 11.3%  4.7%  1.6% 
(q)Devvarman      43%  5.0%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mannarino         57%  8.9%  2.2%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Cipolla        28%  4.0%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Malisse           72% 22.1%  6.6%  1.5%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(15)Tsonga       100% 73.9% 36.7% 12.2%  5.9%  2.0%  0.6% 

(11)Almagro      100% 81.5% 51.0% 22.4%  7.8%  2.7%  0.8% 
(q)Russell        45%  8.1%  2.0%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Anderson          55% 10.4%  3.1%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Istomin           41% 13.1%  4.6%  1.0%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Nieminen          59% 24.4%  9.3%  2.8%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
(23)Montanes     100% 62.5% 30.2% 10.8%  3.1%  0.8%  0.2% 
(28)Simon        100% 73.1% 27.2% 14.5%  4.6%  1.4%  0.4% 
Schuettler        40%  8.3%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Haase             60% 18.7%  4.0%  1.3%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Matosevic      29%  2.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Karlovic          71% 12.7%  5.0%  1.8%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(6)Ferrer        100% 84.6% 61.9% 44.1% 22.2% 10.8%  4.4% 

(4)Soderling     100% 89.0% 71.0% 46.8% 27.3% 15.8%  7.6% 
Phau              37%  3.0%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Berrer            63%  8.0%  3.4%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Smyczek        48% 10.5%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Marchenko         52% 13.4%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(32)Kohlsch.     100% 76.1% 22.0%  7.7%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1% 
(20)Dolgopolov   100% 68.8% 24.4%  8.9%  2.8%  0.9%  0.3% 
Hanescu           39% 10.5%  1.8%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Seppi             61% 20.8%  4.9%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Stepanek          30% 12.1%  6.7%  2.3%  0.8%  0.2%  0.1% 
(PR)Del Potro     70% 46.4% 35.6% 20.8% 11.1%  6.1%  2.9% 
(14)Ljubicic     100% 41.6% 26.5% 10.6%  4.4%  1.7%  0.5% 

(9)Verdasco      100% 86.2% 60.7% 23.2% 10.1%  4.2%  1.3% 
(WC)Berankis      52%  7.4%  2.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Bogomolov      48%  6.3%  1.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Tipsarevic        71% 34.2% 12.2%  3.3%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
Kamke             29%  8.2%  1.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(21)Querrey      100% 57.6% 21.5%  5.8%  1.5%  0.4%  0.1% 
(25)Robredo      100% 70.8% 16.9%  7.6%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1% 
Zverev            62% 20.9%  2.9%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Ebden          38%  8.3%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Young          37%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Starace           63%  6.3%  2.6%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(5)Murray        100% 91.4% 76.3% 57.7% 35.6% 21.5% 11.1% 

(8)Roddick       100% 84.9% 63.0% 43.4% 21.7%  8.7%  3.9% 
(WC)Blake         63% 11.3%  4.5%  1.4%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Guccione       37%  3.8%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Ram-Hidalgo       34%  5.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mello             66% 16.4%  2.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(30)Isner        100% 78.4% 28.1% 12.6%  3.6%  0.8%  0.2% 
(18)Gasquet      100% 73.4% 34.8% 14.2%  4.6%  1.2%  0.3% 
Cuevas            72% 22.8%  6.7%  1.7%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Andujar           28%  3.9%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Benneteau         46% 16.1%  7.1%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
Lopez             54% 18.9%  9.0%  3.1%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0% 
(10)Melzer       100% 65.0% 41.9% 20.4%  8.2%  2.7%  0.9% 

(16)Troicki      100% 82.3% 40.1% 10.5%  4.3%  1.1%  0.3% 
(q)Bopanna        30%  3.1%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Tomic         70% 14.6%  3.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Giraldo           55% 14.6%  6.0%  1.0%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Gim-Traver        45% 10.9%  3.8%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(24)Llodra       100% 74.5% 46.7% 15.8%  7.1%  2.2%  0.7% 
(31)Gulbis       100% 56.7% 12.5%  6.0%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1% 
Hewitt            75% 37.3%  7.5%  3.7%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1% 
Lu                25%  6.0%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mayer             66% 12.7%  7.2%  3.8%  1.6%  0.4%  0.1% 
Golubev           34%  3.7%  1.5%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(3)Djokovic      100% 83.6% 70.8% 57.7% 42.5% 24.8% 15.4% 

(7)Berdych       100% 84.1% 64.8% 33.2% 12.6%  5.6%  2.3% 
Kukushkin         48%  7.6%  2.8%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Kubot             52%  8.3%  3.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
De Bakker         48% 20.6%  5.3%  1.3%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Becker            52% 21.9%  5.9%  1.5%  0.2%  0.1%  0.0% 
(26)Bellucci     100% 57.4% 18.1%  4.9%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
(17)Cilic        100% 81.7% 37.2% 20.7%  6.6%  2.6%  1.0% 
Gabashvili        49%  9.6%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Serra             51%  8.7%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Davydenko         84% 49.6% 32.8% 21.0%  8.7%  4.4%  2.1% 
Fognini           16%  3.5%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(12)Wawrinka     100% 47.0% 26.2% 15.5%  5.2%  2.2%  0.9% 

(13)Fish         100% 64.5% 41.9% 13.0%  6.4%  2.7%  1.1% 
(WC)Raonic        81% 33.0% 17.9%  4.3%  1.7%  0.6%  0.2% 
Ilhan             19%  2.5%  0.6%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Harrison      26%  5.7%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Chardy            74% 32.1% 12.0%  2.4%  0.8%  0.2%  0.1% 
(22)Garcia-Lopez 100% 62.2% 26.6%  5.9%  2.3%  0.8%  0.2% 
(29)Chela        100% 59.2%  7.7%  2.6%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% 
Petzschner        66% 30.5%  3.4%  1.1%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Brown             34% 10.3%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Andreev           41%  3.0%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Nishikori         59%  6.4%  3.7%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(2)Federer       100% 90.6% 83.1% 68.7% 52.4% 36.7% 24.5%

You’ll probably notice right off that Federer and Djokovic have the best chances of winning. Indeed, they are the top two players on hard courts, according to my rankings. Yes, Nadal has won the slams lately, but he has also lost to a few players he shouldn’t have (Baghdatis, Melzer, Garcia-Lopez) in the recent past. I personally wouldn’t put money on Federer over Nadal in the final, but my algorithm disagrees.

A few other players my system likes are Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, and Marcos Baghdatis. It picks out some players for scoring wins over top-ranked players. It likes Del Potro both because of his strong record in the last few weeks and because the algorithm still considers his torrid summer of 2009, leading up to his U.S. Open win.

One more thing, and then I’ll shut up for now. In the first-round matches, there are very few that stray beyond a 70/30 split. Even Tomic-Bopanna is 70/30, and Bopanna barely plays singles. The narrow divides are partly because no top players are involved in the first round, but it also shows you the depth of the men’s game — even someone ranked outside of the top 150, like Flavio Cipolla, has a decent chance of advancing.

Of course, Flavio doesn’t have quite the same odds against Tsonga, and you can tell from Nadal’s second round odds that neither Pere Riba nor Rik de Voest stand much of a chance against him.

Enjoy the tennis … and the numbers.

Thursday Topspin: Rohan Bopanna, Singles Champion

Indians at Indian Wells: It’s no surprise that Somdev Devvarman came through qualifying–he was the second seed and won both his matches in straight sets.  Rohan Bopanna, on the other hand–he may have been the lowest ranked player in the qualifying draw.

Yet, after a tough three-setter against Peter Polansky and a tight two-tiebreak match against top seed Daniel Brands, Bopanna finds himself in the main draw.  This is the first time he’s made it this far in singles at a 1000-level event.  He’ll face wild card Bernard Tomic in the first round.  If he wins, he faces none other than Viktor Troicki, the man who he pushed to five sets in Davis Cup last week.

Opportunities for qualifiers: The 96-player draw is unusual, and it gives a big opportunity to qualifiers and others who just missed the cut.  In most draws, non-seeded players can show up just to face Rafael Nadal in the first round.  Here, you’re guaranteed to get at least one match against someone outside the top 30.

A couple of players in position to take advantage of the format are Ryan Sweeting and Matthew Ebden.  Sweeting plays the Spainard Marcel Granollers in the first round and would then face Juan Monaco, one of the most beatable seeds in the tourney.  Ebden battles Mischa Zverev for a chance to play Tommy Robredo.

Match of the day: The top half of the draw is in action, meaning a lot of qualifiers get to play their third match in three days.  That doesn’t apply, however, to the marquee event: Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Radek Stepanek.  Stepanek can be a challenge for any player, and that might be particularly true for Del Potro, who has faced a barrage of aggressive big servers in Memphis and Delray Beach.

If I were setting the schedule, the undercard would be the matchup of Richard Berankis and Alex Bogomolov Jr. Bogie is playing well, having just won the title in Dallas and qualified here, and of course Berankis has big potential.

Elsewhere: Speaking of big potential, Grigor Dimitrov isn’t going to display it this week.  Seeded #1 in Sarajevo, he lost in the first round to Karol Beck.  That means no semifinal matchup with Dmitri Tursunov, though the Russian is through to the second round thanks to an injury to Igor Sijsling.

Miami wild cards: We’re already talking about the next tournament, apparently.  Miami has given main draw slots to James Blake, Ryan Harrison, Jack Sock, Milos Raonic, and Tomic.  I’m a bit surprised by the love for Tomic stateside; yes, he’s young and talented, but he’s only a fan favorite until the fans get to know him.  After he showed up in Dallas and tanked a match, you have to wonder why the Miami tournament is doing this for him.

After all, I’m guessing Evgeny Donskoy is available.

See you tomorrow!

Wednesday Topspin: Start hydrating

Indian Wells draw: The most interesting quarter, by far is Robin Soderling‘s.  In the first round, Juan Martin Del Potro must face Radek Stepanek–most likely an easy match for the Argentine, but with both players’ health issues, you never know.  The winner plays defending champion Ivan Ljubicic–again, an outcome that will depend in part on injury status.

The winner of that match will probably play Alexandr Dolgopolov, and whoever comes out on top then, most likely, gets Soderling.

In the other half of that quarter are Andy Murray and Fernando Verdasco, both guys with a shot at winning the tournament.  Verdasco, however, will probably need to beat Richard Berankis in his first match.

Also of note: James Blake faces a qualifier in the first round, and if he wins, he draws Andy Roddick.  Milos Raonic opens up against Marsel Ilhan, and the winner faces Mardy Fish.  Raonic-Fish could easily be the highlight of the second round.  Another potential second-rounder is Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori, assuming Nishikori beats Igor Andreev.

It’s nice to have all the top players in the world together again, isn’t it?

Speaking of Milos: Raonic’s rapid rise is creating all sorts of oddities.  He’s currently ranked 37th, and since he doesn’t have many points to defend, a decent performance at either Indian Wells or Miami will push him into the top 32.   Once there (or even close), he’ll be seeded at the French Open.  I wonder how many times it has happened that a player has to qualify for one grand slam and then is seeded at the next?

Miami creates another unique situation for the Canadian.  Because the cut is determined so early, Raonic is not yet in the main draw of Key Biscayne.  Anyone ranked higher than 78th got into the main draw.  As is, Milos will be the top seed in qualifying (ranked in the 30s!), unless he gets a wild card, or enough players withdraw to move him into the main draw the old-fashioned way.

A little more from the desert: Yesterday was the first day of qualifying, and frankly, it wasn’t very interesting.  But one result stuck out: Rohan Bopanna took down Peter Polansky, 7-6(6) 3-6 7-5.  Bopanna has never had much success as a singles player, but his five-set effort against Viktor Troicki has got to have given him some confidence.

Today, Bopanna will face top seed Daniel Brands for a spot in the main draw.

Little brother: A single note from Futures this morning:  One of the qualifiers at Ukraine F2 is 17-year-old Leonard Stakhovsky.  Yep, he’s Sergiy’s brother.  He currently has a lone ranking point to his name, but he’ll get at least one more this week.  After winning three matches to get into the tournament, he beat Grzegorz Panfil, a Pole ranked in the top 500, to reach the second round.

Sergiy withdrew from Indian Wells, so this may be the first week that Leonard has the best result of the family.

See you tomorrow!

Tuesday Topspin: Back in the USSR

This is what we in the tennis blogging world call a “slow news day.” Davis Cup is over, and the Indian Wells main draw hasn’t been released. Oh well, we’ll make do.

Star maps: Indian Wells has done a great job ensuring that the game’s young stars are in the main draw, granting wild cards to Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Ryan Harrison, and Richard Berankis.  Any tournament that gives more than half of its wild cards to foreign players gets a thumbs up from me.

Missing from the draw, however, is Grigor Dimitrov.  The Bulgarian followed the European challenger circuit to Sarajevo, where he will again be the top seed.  Also following the circuit is Nicholas Mahut, Dimitrov’s opponent in last week’s final.  The more interesting potential opponent for the Bulgarian, though, is in his half of the draw: fourth-seeded Russian Dmitri Tursunov.

Others to watch: Like I said, slow news day, so let’s glance through the futures draws.  Bizarrely, Marc Gicquel is playing France F4 in Lille.  His stock has fallen in the last couple of years, but one would hope that (a) he’s getting a nice appearance fee, and (b) he wins easily.

In McAllen, Texas, at USA F7, here’s an unlikely pair of wild cards: 16-year-old Thai-Son Kwiatkowski and drug cheat Wayne Odesnik.  Odesnik has been on entry lists the last couple of weeks but hasn’t played; I wonder if he decided he wouldn’t play qualifying and has waited for his next wild card.  It’s an interesting draw beyond those two, as well.  Joining the Texas futures swing are two American 19-year-olds, Jordan Cox and Andrea Collarini.

That Russian Davis Cup team: Without Nikolay Davydenko and Mikhail Youhzny, Russia’s Davis Cup team last weekend was the weakest it has put forth in a long time.  While Russia lost to Sweden, Kazakhstan triumphed over the Czechs and moved into the quarterfinals.

Of course, Kazahstan (among many other countries in Europe and Asia) used to be part of the USSR.  The Soviets were generally not much of a factor, spending only five years in the World Group.  But my oh my, what a team they would have right now.

Of course, the Russian contingent isn’t that bad.  You have the Kazakhs.  There are two Ukrainians in the top 40.  Belarus sports one of the best doubles players in the world in Max Mirnyi.  Even Latvia and Lithuania each have a player in the top 100.

Which got me wondering: What would Russian tennis look like if it still spanned the entire USSR?  Here are the singles rankings:

13   Mikhail Youzhny         RUS  
23   Alexander Dolgopolov    UKR  
34   Ernests Gulbis          LAT  
38   Sergey Stakhovsky       UKR  
39   Andrei Goloubev         KAZ  
42   Nikolay Davydenko       RUS  
55   Denis Istomin           UZB  
62   Mikhail Kukushkin       KAZ  
74   Richard Berankis        LTU  
77   Teimuraz Gabashvili     RUS  
96   Igor Andreev            RUS  
99   Ilia Marchenko          UKR  
103  Igor Kunitsyn           RUS  
104  Dmitry Tursunov         RUS  
125  Yuri Schukin            KAZ  
144  Alexandre Koudriavtsev  RUS  
153  Konstantin Kravchuk     RUS  
197  Jurgen Zopp             EST  
200  Vladimir Ignatik        BLR

Pretty impressive, huh?  With a potential doubles team of Mirnyi/Stakhovsky, you could come with a Davis Cup team on par with anyone except for a healthy Spain or France.

Alas, the Russians will have to settle for watching their former compatriots.

See you tomorrow!