Thursday Topspin: Capitalizing

Open quarters: Of the eight men left standing in Barcelona, five are seeded in the top eight.  The other three are unseeded, but only one needed to pull a major upset to get to the quarters.

That man is Ivan Dodig, who took out Robin Soderling in the 2nd round, allowing the Swede only six games.  It’s been a breakthrough season for the Croatian, who will crack the top 50 thanks to his performance this week.  He backed up the 2nd-round win with a tough three-setter against Milos Raonic today.  Perhaps most impressive, he reeled off seven points in a row to win a first-set tiebreak.

Dodig has an opportunity to go even further, as the man seeded to face him in the quarters was Tomas Berdych, who withdrew.  Instead, his next opponent is Feliciano Lopez, who defeated Kei Nishikori today, after upsetting Guillermo Garcia-Lopez yesterday.  Thus, at least one semifinalist will be unseeded.

That man will almost certainly face Rafael Nadal in the semis.  Nadal, as goes without saying, breezed through his match today against Santiago Giraldo–if anything, it’s surprising that he failed to win 60% of total points.  Nadal’s quarterfinal opponent is Gael Monfils, who won in straight sets over Richard Gasquet–a positive result for Monfils, who just scraped by Robin Haase in the second round.

Predictions: There aren’t betting lines yet for all of the quarterfinals, but I have run my algorithm to get percentages for tomorrow’s four matches:

  • Nadal vs. Monfils: Oddsmakers have the Frenchman at 30-1, which seems excessive to me.  Yes, of course, Rafa is the heavy favorite, and yes, of course, Gael could self-destruct and play no better than Giraldo did today.  But on the other hand, Monfils is one of the few men with a game that could–if the stars aligned exactly right–beat Nadal on clay.  My system gives Gael a 20% chance, which as I’ve commented before, is just a reflection of how my system doesn’t know what to do with someone so surface-dominant as Nadal.
  • Dodig vs. Lopez: After beating Soderling, Dodig will no doubt gain several places in my ranking system, but that won’t happen until next Monday.  As it is now, my algorithm isn’t too impressed, especially with Dodig’s potential on clay.  It gives Feliciano a 64% chance of reaching the semis.
  • Jurgen Melzer vs. David Ferrer: Even after Melzer’s impressive victory over Roger Federer last week, Ferrer is still the favorite here.  I have him at 60.5%, while early sportsbook odds set him at 77%.
  • Nicholas Almagro vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero: It’s nice to see Ferrero right back in the mix, even if it took some good fortune to get him there.  In fact, he just barely got by Simone Vagnozzi today, a result that must have Almagro licking his lips in anticipation.  Early sportsbook odds have Almagro at 78%, while my system puts him at 70%.

Streaking southpaw: Thomas Schoorel isn’t letting up–after winning a title last week, he hasn’t lost a set this week, including his opening-round upset of Jeremy Chardy.  Tomorrow he’ll face 5th-seed Ivo Minarin the semis.

Another man to watch on the challenger tour is Aljaz Bedene, the Slovenian who won his first title at this level three weeks ago in Barletta.  Last week he reached the semifinals in Blumenau, and he’s in another quarter in Santos, where he’ll next face 5th-seed Diego Junquiera.

See you tomorrow!

Wednesday Topspin: Lucky Winners

Bye bye bye: It only happens a few times a year, and it entertains me every time.  Both Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych had byes in the first round of Barcelona, and both withdrew.  They were replaced by lucky losers, who then got byes straight to the second round.  Good deal, right?  Lose in the qualifying round, then find yourself in the round of 32.

Unfortunately, neither Rui Machado nor Mischa Zverev could convert on their opportunity.  Machado, who replaced Berdych, lost to Kei Nishikori, while Zverev, who took Murray’s place, fell in a close contest to Juan Carlos Ferrero.  Ferrero may benefit the most from Murray’s departure–Nicholas Almagro is the main obstacle now between JC and a semifinal berth.

In fact, the bottom quarter is the most interesting in the draw.  Earlier today, 16th-seed Juan Monaco won only five games in a loss to 5’8″ Italian qualifier Simone Vagnozzi, about as lowly an underdog as you’ll find in an ATP 500.  Vagnozzi only advanced to the second round thanks to Fabio Fognini’s retirement in the first, and today’s victory marks the highlight of his journeyman career.  Vagnozzi is Ferrero’s next opponent.

Almagro may have his work cut out for him, as well.  Nikolay Davydenko reminded us that he’s still alive by knocking out Alexandr Dolgopolov yesterday, and he faces the relatively easy challenge of qualifier Eduoard Roger-Vasselin in the second round.

Catching up: I wasn’t able to follow Barcelona qualifying over the weekend, and looking back at how it played out, there are a couple of things worth mentioning.  Doubles specialist Marc Lopez, who rarely plays singles these days, took a wild card, then got to a third-set tiebreak against Jarkko Nieminen in the qualifying round.  Not bad–he might have fared better against Carlos Berlocq than Nieminen did yesterday.

Up-and-coming clay courter Evgeny Donskoy was the lowest-ranked player in qualifying, yet he beat 9th seed Jesse Huta Galung in the first round, then lost Vagnozzi in the qualifying round.  Oddly, those two faced each other only a couple of months ago in a Futures-level final, and that day, the Russian came out on top.

Looking forward:  Still on the card for today is Milos Raonic’s second-rounder, against Simon Greul, as well as the Davydenko match.  Robin Soderling will begin his Barcelona campaign as well, against Ivan Dodig, who took a set from the Swede back in Miami.  Soderling’s standing as the last man to beat Rafael Nadal on clay makes him one to watch.  He’s seeded to face Nadal in the semis this week.

By the time you read this, Nadal will probably be into the round of 16.  He’s up 5-0 on Daniel Gimeno-Traver, in a match where at least one oddsmaker set DGT at 81-1.  Rafa’s next victim will be Santiago Giraldo, who you wouldn’t think has any more of a chance.

See you tomorrow!

Tuesday Topspin: A New Big Man

Not so wild: Last week marked a big accomplishment for Dutchman Thomas Schoorel–he won his first challenger-level title, and ascended to a career-high ranking of #126.  It’s now more than a big week, it’s a big nine days.

Schoorel entered this week’s tournament in Napoli with points to defend–last year at this time, he won a futures event in Italy.  The task was challenging–after a week of beating guys with rankings in the 100s, he drew top-seeded wild card Jeremy Chardy.  Today, he proved himself up to the task, dismissing Chardy in straight sets.  It will only get easier from here–in the second round, he draws world #256 Pavol Cervenak.

The Dutchman is a lefty standing 6’8″, a combination that surely makes it tough for first-time opponents.  His 22nd birthday was a couple of weeks ago, and with his new ranking, he’s among the top 15 players at his age or younger.

Also in Napoli: Thomas Muster is turning into an object lesson for former pros considering a comeback.  It’s a rare man who returns to the tour with any level of success, but Muster is setting new lows.  This week, he fell to Uladzimir Ignatik 6-3 7-5, moving his record on the year to 0-4.  I’m sure the former #1 is drawing the crowds … but that’s why there’s a champions tour.

Nadal’s next victims: In Barcelona, we’re still plowing through an uneventful first round.  Of the seven final scores so far today, the headline-grabber is Juan Carlos Ferrero’s successful return to the tour, as he dropped only six games in beating Xavier Malisse.  He’ll face Andy Murray in the second round, if the Brit plays–his elbow is still an issue, and he may withdraw.  If he does, it will create one of my favorite quirks of the tournament entry system–a lucky loser will get a bye into the second round.

The best matches of the day are still to come.  The second round gets underway as Gael Monfils plays Robin Haase, in a match that has upset potential, if only due to Monfils’s rustiness and the usual crapshoot of whether good Gael or bad Gael takes the court.  Finishing up the first round, Milos Raonic plays Radek Stepanek and Alexandr Dolgopolov takes on Nikolay Davydenko.

Yesterday I ran a full projection of the draw–if you haven’t seen it, click here.

That’s all I’ve got for today–see you tomorrow!

Barcelona Projections

It’s not quite Monte Carlo, but it may be the strongest field of any ATP 500 this year. Below find the full draw, along with each player’s chances of reaching each round.

One thing you may notice is the relatively low chance of Nadal winning the tournament. Intuitively, it’s tough to imagine him losing. For this sort of projection, 39% is actually fairly high for any one player, but Nadal on clay, of course, is in a class by himself. If the sportsbooks odds last week are anything to go by, my system just isn’t built to handle such extreme players.

With all that said, there are definitely some interesting matchups in the early rounds, and some tight matches in the first round that might not otherwise make the headlines. My system stubbornly loves Davydenko, to the extent of making him the favorite over Dolgopolov tomorrow, something that very few humans outside the Davydenko family would agree with.

Enjoy!

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Rafael Nadal         100% 94.2% 85.2% 71.5% 52.1% 39.0% 
D Gimeno Traver          50%  3.0%  1.2%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0% 
Potito Starace           50%  2.7%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0% 
R Ramirez Hidalgo        40%  8.2%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Albert Ramos         60% 17.2%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Santiago Giraldo         37% 25.3%  2.8%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
(13)Thomaz Bellucci      63% 49.4%  8.1%  3.6%  1.2%  0.4% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(9)Richard Gasquet       70% 56.4% 29.0%  7.0%  2.7%  1.1% 
Juan Ignacio Chela       30% 18.2%  5.5%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0% 
Tobias Kamke             50% 12.5%  2.8%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Blaz Kavcic              50% 12.9%  2.9%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Flavio Cipolla        29%  3.7%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Robin Haase              71% 18.6%  7.9%  1.1%  0.2%  0.1% 
(7)Gael Monfils         100% 77.6% 50.9% 13.6%  5.6%  2.5% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(3)Robin Soderling      100% 91.5% 75.6% 55.9% 25.8% 16.2% 
(q)Vincent Millot        42%  3.0%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Ivan Dodig               58%  5.5%  2.0%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% 
Robert Kendrick          45%  9.2%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Simon Greul           55% 12.9%  1.4%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Radek Stepanek           38% 28.5%  5.9%  2.2%  0.4%  0.1% 
(15)Milos Raonic         62% 49.4% 13.5%  6.3%  1.4%  0.5% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(12)G Garcia Lopez       60% 36.1% 12.7%  3.3%  0.7%  0.2% 
Denis Istomin            40% 18.9%  5.0%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0% 
Feliciano Lopez          63% 31.2%  9.7%  2.2%  0.4%  0.1% 
Mikhail Kukushkin        37% 13.8%  3.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% 
Kei Nishikori            71% 22.7% 13.2%  3.6%  0.7%  0.2% 
Pere Riba                29%  4.4%  1.6%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(5)Tomas Berdych        100% 73.0% 54.8% 23.6%  7.8%  3.7% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(6)Jurgen Melzer        100% 78.5% 54.7% 26.7% 11.0%  3.1% 
Marcel Granollers        53% 12.0%  5.1%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0% 
Daniel Brands            47%  9.5%  3.8%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0% 
(q)Benoit Paire          74% 27.9%  7.8%  1.7%  0.3%  0.0% 
(WC)P Carreno Busta      26%  4.8%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Teymuraz Gabashvili      28% 14.4%  3.7%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0% 
(11)Albert Montanes      72% 52.8% 24.3%  8.8%  2.9%  0.5% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(14)Kevin Anderson       45% 18.1%  3.6%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0% 
Pablo Cuevas             55% 26.1%  5.7%  2.0%  0.4%  0.1% 
Andrey Golubev           69% 42.9% 13.0%  5.9%  1.7%  0.4% 
Victor Hanescu           31% 12.9%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
(q)Jarkko Nieminen       55%  8.4%  3.5%  1.2%  0.2%  0.0% 
Carlos Berlocq           45%  5.4%  2.1%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
(4)David Ferrer         100% 86.2% 69.8% 48.7% 26.9% 10.6% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(8)Nicolas Almagro      100% 86.4% 56.5% 27.4% 14.6%  4.8% 
(WC)G Granollers Pujol   21%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Pablo Andujar            79% 12.6%  3.8%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% 
(WC)Andrey Kuznetsov     51%  9.8%  1.8%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0% 
(q)E Roger-Vasselin      49% 10.2%  1.8%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Nikolay Davydenko        60% 50.1% 24.8% 10.7%  5.4%  1.7% 
(10)Alexandr Dolgopolov  40% 29.8% 11.2%  3.9%  1.5%  0.3% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(16)(WC)Juan Monaco      67% 45.3% 13.4%  4.9%  1.9%  0.4% 
Grigor Dimitrov          33% 16.8%  2.9%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% 
Fabio Fognini            67% 29.1%  5.8%  1.7%  0.5%  0.1% 
(q)Simone Vagnozzi       33%  8.8%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Xavier Malisse           40%  5.0%  2.2%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% 
Juan Carlos Ferrero      60% 10.7%  5.8%  2.1%  0.7%  0.1% 
(2)Andy Murray          100% 84.2% 69.0% 46.7% 30.7% 13.6%

Monday Topspin: Seven in a Row

King of Clay: It’s no shocker, but it’s still mighty impressive.  Rafael Nadal won his 7th consecutive Monte Carlo championship, defeating David Ferrer in a tight match.  It’s a sign of just how dominant Rafa is on clay that his last two matches actually represent a step forward for the field–Andy Murray took a set on Saturday, and there was very little separating Nadal and Ferrer yesterday.

In fact, if I were a fellow player watching those matches, I might think–for the first time in at least a year–that Nadal can be beaten.  Murray showed that you can beat him (at least for a string of several games) at his own game, with a heavy dose of patient defense and the occasional attack.  Yesterday, Rafa was off his game, and it was enough to give Ferrer several chances.  In fact, here’s a bold prediction for you: I’m going on record saying that Nadal will lose a match on clay this year.

Betting on it: I don’t think the oddsmakers agree with me.  The betting lines on Nadal’s matches last week were absolutely off the charts.  Before Rafa’s second-rounder with Jarkko Nieminen, at one point you could have gotten 120-1 odds on the Finn.  Sportsbooks were giving both Richard Gasquet and Ivan Ljubicic about a 3.5% chance of winning, and even Andy Murray merited only a 9% chance.  Hey, maybe those odds are correct, but … a top 5 player going off at 11-1?  Amazing.

Rankings: The biggest points gainer of the week is Ferrer, who improved on his previous result in Monte Carlo, but he stays at #6, merely closing the gap separating him from Robin Soderling.  Other players whose rankings benefited from the tournament include Milos Raonic, up 6 places to #28, Ivan Ljubicic, up 7 to #33, and surprise quarterfinalist Frederico Gil, up 18 to a new career high of #64.

Two challenger winners climbed to new career highs: Matthias Bachinger, champion in Athens, breaks into the top 100 for the first time at #99, while Thomas Schoorel, the Rome titlist, jumps 36 places to 126.  Also notable is Tallahassee winner Donald Young, up 24 to #98.

The loser of the week is, without question, Fernando Verdasco.  Finalist last year in Monte Carlo, he lost his first match and his place in the top 10, falling four places to #12.

Barcelona: The first round in Spain is in progress, and after the star-studded cast in Monte Carlo, it’s a bit of a letdown.  While there’s plenty of firepower at the top of the draw–Nadal, Murray, Ferrer, and Soderling are all present–the top eight seeds have byes in the first round, leaving something that looks more like Monte Carlo qualifying.  The highlight of today’s action is probably the last match of the day, between Juan Monaco and Grigor Dimitrov.

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the biggest story of the opening round: the return of Juan Carlos Ferrero.  He hasn’t played since last year’s U.S. Open, and has seen his ranking fall to #77 in that time.  He’ll begin with a match against Xavier Malisse for a chance to play Murray.

Beyond that, it’s a clay-courter’s paradise.  14 of the 56 men in the main draw are Spainards, and the percentage of locals may climb even higher after the first round.  Also of interest in the country count: There’s only one American in the draw, and it’s Robert Kendrick.  That must be a first for him at the ATP level.

Housekeeping: As regular readers surely noticed, I wasn’t able to keep up my daily schedule last week.  Unfortunately, that’s probably a sign of things to come.  I’ll keep posting as much as my schedule allows.

Also, later today, as soon as I can get my databases updated, I’ll post my projections for Barcelona.  It will be a little silly with so much of the first round on record, but I like to get this stuff on record.

Wednesday Topspin: The Underdog Three-Seed

Back on the board: It’s a strange situation when you don’t really expect a top-five player to win his opening match.  Yet Andy Murray had plenty of doubters before he finally won his first match since the Australian Open.  As it turned out, he made easy work of Radek Stepanek, advancing to the round of 16 in straight sets.

Murray’s seeded, straight-set win was indicative of the entire round.  Only two seeds lost in the 16 second-round matches, and only a couple other matches could be considered upsets.  What’s more, only three matches in the round went to a third set.

The one major upset went to a man having nearly as rough a season as Murray: Fernando Verdasco.  He lost in straight sets to Tommy Robredo, landing only 53% of his first serves.  I suppose that isn’t quite as painful as losing to Pablo Andujar on a hard court, but it does nasty work to his ranking.  Verdasco reached the final last year, so he’ll fall at least four spots to #12.

A lesser surprise, but still notable, was Milos Raonic’s win over Ernests Gulbis.  Both players suffered some mental hiccups–Raonic couldn’t close out the match with 40-0 on his own racquet–but as usual, Gulbis’s mind lost the match for him.  A bad call in the middle of the first set kept him chattering at the umpire for the next several changeovers, and that was more than enough to give Raonic the first set.  The Latvian didn’t return to form until midway through the second, and Raonic was too strong to let it slip away.

The round of 16: You have to feel bad for Richard Gasquet–he showed fantastic form in beating Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and he’s rewarded by a match with Rafael Nadal.  At Monte Carlo, that’s just an elaborate form of ritual sacrifice.  At least the sportsbooks think more highly of him than they did of Jarkko Nieminen–Gasquet gets a 3.5% chance of beating Rafa, while at one point, oddsmakers were giving Nieminen less than 1%.

Thanks to the surface, the best bet for an upset tomorrow is the match between Tommy Robredo and Viktor Troicki.  Troicki is the seed, but of course Robredo is at home on clay.  My system gives the Spainard a 54% chance of winning, while oddsmakers set it at closer to 62%.  It’s a better deal for Troicki than a matchup against Verdasco, but it will still be impressive for him to get through.

The winner of Robredo-Troicki faces the winner of Raonic-David Ferrer.  Ferrer was the man who finally stopped Raonic in Australia, and on clay, he should have an easier time of it.  His 6-2 6-0 drubbing of Feliciano Lopez today certainly suggests that he’s in form.  Then again, the Canadian has exceeded expectations in both round so far, and he has the benefit of zero expectations.

There’s plenty more to look forward to.  Both my system and the sportsbooks forecast a tight contest between Nicholas Almagro and Jurgen Melzer; Almagro fought through a three-setter with two tiebreaks to beat Maximo Gonzalez today.  In the other half of the draw, Murray will face a tough match against Gilles Simon, who has cruised through his first two rounds.  And Roger Federer will try to fend off Marin Cilic.

Challengers: Just a couple of quick updates today. Cedrik-Marcel Stebe continues to impress, taking out Evgeny Donskoy for a quarterfinal berth in Rome.  He’ll face yet another youngster, the tall lefty Thomas Schoorel, who has beaten two qualifiers to get this far.

In Tallahassee, James Blake needed three sets to get past Frank Dancevic.  He’ll play Amer Delic later today for a spot in the quarters.  The first man into the quarters was Donald Young, who can look forward to a probably matchup with top seed Rainer Schuettler.

See you tomorrow!

The Odds of Breaking Back

Perhaps the most unquestioned piece of conventional wisdom in tennis is this: after breaking serve, a player is particularly vulnerable to being broken himself.  It certainly seems to be true–to take just one example, in the Isner/Karlovic match last week, there were only two breaks of serve, and they were consecutive.

As with most bits of conventional wisdom, it’s not clear exactly what people mean by it.  When Djokovic crushes someone 6-0 6-1, do we really think his serve is more vulnerable after each of his five or six breaks than it is after the one game his opponent holds?  When a player does break back, is he then more vulnerable in his next service game?

Today, I’ll try to address the more basic versions of the cliche.  The results are a bit surprising.

The dataset

I’m working with all of the 2011 Australian Open matches from courts where Hawkeye was in place.  That’s about 80 of the men’s singles matches, and roughly the same number of women’s matches.  I’ve run the numbers on both genders but will keep them separate, for reasons that will become clear.

These matches give us over 2,700 men’s games across about 300 sets, and nearly 2,000 women’s games over a bit more than 200 sets.

Breaking back: Men

At this year’s Aussie Open, 24% of all men’s games were service breaks.  If we take the conventional wisdom literally, we would hypothesize that in the game following a service break, another break would occur more than 24% of the time.

But it doesn’t.  In the game following a service break, the server is broken only 19.5% of the time.  (I’m excluding service breaks that end a set or take a set to a tiebreak.)  In other words, in the aggregate, a player is more likely to hold serve after breaking serve than he is after his opponent holds.

Of course, as I suggested by mentioning Djokovic a moment ago, there’s a huge selection bias here.  A player who breaks serve is (all else equal) likely to be a better player than one who doesn’t.  The best players in the most lopsided matches are breaking serve frequently, and because they are the better player, it makes sense that they are more likely (again, all else equal) to hold their own serve.

Without looking at individual matchups, it’s not immediately clear how to address this problem.  For one thing, I’m not convinced it’s a problem.  When Federer broke Kohlschreiber today, a commentator may have said, “Roger is particularly vulnerable here, let’s see if he can consolidate the break.”  One could easily respond: “Roger just showed us he’s in tremendous form; the very fact he just broke serve is an indication that he’s less vulnerable than usual on serve right now.”  And so it proved: Roger broke four times; Kohlschreiber never broke back.

What might be more instructive is to look at situations where the player who broke serve is considered to be roughly equal or inferior to his opponent.  Had Kohlschreiber broken serve early in the match, even given the assumption that he must be playing well in order to do so, the conventional wisdom would suggest that Federer is more likely to break back.  Perhaps that’s true.  It’s not something I can answer today–quantifying the matchups is beyond the scope of this afternoon project.  It’s also problematic in that it would also shrink the size of our already-small dataset.

In any event, it is clear that we can’t take this bit of conventional wisdom at face value.  It may be true in certain scenarios–some players may crumple under the pressure of consolidating a break, and others may rise to the occasion after losing serve.  But it is wrong to say that, in general, players are more vulnerable on serve after a break.

Breaking back: Women

As you might expect, breaks of serve are more prevalent in the women’s game, as are breaks-following-breaks.

At the 2011 AO, women broke serve 36.5% of the time.  In games following breaks of serve, they broke 36.0%.  In contrast to the men’s results, this suggests that in the women’s game, a service break doesn’t tell us as much about the strength of the player who has accomplished the break–or, if it does, that a server is more vulnerable after breaking serve.  Anecdotally, it certainly seems that differences in mental strength play a larger role in WTA matches, so I would expect that the break-back rate would be higher.

As I’ve said, this is far from the final word.  As usual, the conventional wisdom masks many subtleties that only further analysis can unearth.

Tuesday Topspin: Federer Cruising

Kohl down: A couple of days ago, I suggested that Roger Federer might have his hands full with a second-round matchup against Philipp Kohlschreiber.  While Kohlschreiber looked great in Indian Wells, knocking out Robin Soderling and nearly upsetting Juan Martin del Potro, he didn’t do much to justify my optimism this week.  He just barely made it past Andrey Golubev, and earlier today, lost to Federer, winning only three games and 36% of total points.

Federer has gotten a head start on the pack, becoming the first man into the round of 16, and one of only two of the top eight seeds in action today.  (The other is Tomas Berdych, who will take on Olivier Rochus later.)  Federer’s section of the draw is distinctly unchallenging; his likely next opponent is Marin Cilic, and after that, he’s seeded to play Jurgen Melzer (or, very possibly Nicholas Almagro).  If he reaches the semifinal, we could be treated to an interesting contrast of clay-court styles, as his probable opponent is either David Ferrer or Fernando Verdasco.

Sets up: There haven’t been a lot of upsets so far in the first round, but a slew of matches have gotten interesting.  Among yesterday’s 13 first-rounders, 7 went to a deciding set.  Already today, three more have done so, including the clash between Feliciano Lopez and Janko Tipsarevic, which Lopez won in a third-set tiebreak.  Ivan Ljubicic has just taken the first set from Jo-Wilfriend Tsonga, which means we’ll either see an upset or yet another three-setter.

A fascinating match still on tap for today is a second-rounder between Ernests Gulbis and Milos Raonic.  As I mentioned yesterday, Gulbis had an excellent clay season last year, even if his dreadful recent results tend to camouflage them.  Raonic, of course, has virtually no history on the surface, yet it didn’t stop him from advancing past Michael Llodra.  Oddsmakers give Gulbis a 67% chance of winning, which is almost exactly what my system says, as well.

Five challengers: Thanks to the small Monte Carlo draw, plenty of top-100 players are contesting challengers this week.  There are five of them, meaning that the talent is spread fairly thin.  As I noted over the weekend, the top tourney is in Rome, where a handful of youngsters are in the field.  That event has already seen a major upset, as Serbian qualifier Boris Pashanski knocked out #2 seed Bjorn Phau.  Top seed Andreas Haider-Maurer also has his hands full with an opening matchup against Uladzimir Ignatik.

In Athens, the field is not as strong, but two good players anchor the draw.  Benjamin Becker is the top seed, while Dmitri Tursunov is #2.  In Brazil, the tournament in Blumenau keeps the South American clay circuit going.  Tiago Fernandes, the surprise finalist last week, is in the draw, as are the winners from two weeks ago in Barletta and Barranquilla, Aljaz Bedene and Facundo Bagnis.  There’s also plenty of experience there, as the field includes Martin Vassallo Arguello, Jose Acasuso, and Nicholas Massu.

Plenty of notable Americans are playing at the Tallahassee event, including wild card James Blake and fourth-seed Ryan Sweeting.  Also of interest is a first-round match between wild cards Denis Kudla and Michael Shabaz, as well as the presence of Wayne Odesnik, who qualified.  Finally, Dustin Brown highlights the field in Johannesburg, the weakest of the five events at this level.  Clearly, there will be plenty of tennis to follow this week.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Topspin: First-timers

New titlists: We have two first-time champions on the ATP tour: Pablo Andujar and Ryan Sweeting.  Andujar got better as the week went on in Casablanca, going three sets in the first round against Florent Serra, to a tiebreak against Jeremy Chardy in the second, and finally disposing of Potito Starace 6-1 6-2 in yesterday’s final.  He is definitely a man to watch over the next two months; he’ll next play in Barcelona.

Sweeting was the upset winner over Kei Nishikori in Houston, surprising just about everybody by playing so well on clay.  It was a very close match: the American won 51% of total points, and a lower percentage of service points than his opponent did.  Nishikori may be the more heralded prospect, but Sweeting is working his way up the scale.

New rankings: Champions Andujar and Sweeting are two of the biggest gainers in this week’s rankings, as both ascend to new career highs.  Andujar rises to #52, Sweeting to #67.  Also notable is Nishikori’s jump to #48, also a personal best for him.

The biggest losers are last year’s titlists in Casabalanca and Houston: Stanislas Wawrinka and Juan Ignacio Chela, neither of whom played this week.  Wawrinka drops two spots to #15, while Chela crashes 14 places to #42.

Challenger winners last week were Julian Reister, who breaks into the top 100 for the first time, Tatsuma Ito, who defeated the weak field in Recife, and Paolo Lorenzi, winner in Pereira.  Also of note is Tiago Fernandes, a wild card who reached the final in Recife before he withdrew.  His three-set battle with Julio Silva in the semifinals helped him jump 129 ranking points to #380.

Monte Carlo: If you missed them yesterday, be sure to check out the results of my Monte Carlo simulation.  My clay rankings are in many ways more interesting than the hard court rankings, since they differ so much more from the standard ATP list.

A couple interesting examples of the difference have already been on display.  Yesterday, oddsmakers heavily favored Alexandr Dolgopolov over Ernests Gulbis, only to see the higher-ranked Dolgo lose in straight sets.  By contrast, my system recognizes his three straight quarterfinal appearances in last year’s clay season, including a win over Roger Federer.  Accordingly, it saw the Gulbis win coming, giving the Latvian a 67% chance of advancing.

Here’s another one: Olivier Rochus just snuck by Chela in three sets.  Sportsbooks gave Chela a roughly 65% chance of winning, while my predictions set him at a more modest 54%.  Rochus has had plenty of success on clay, especially at the challenger level, while my system sees Chela as somewhat overrated on the surface.

Of course, we could cherry-pick all day, and we’d be sure to find plenty of examples where my system went wrong.  All I want to highlight is that predicting clay court results is tricky, and it’s easy to give too much weight to recent results (Dolgopolov) or clay reputation (Chela).

In addition to the two matches I’ve already mentioned, today has already seen a notable upset: Florian Mayer over Mikhail Youzhny.  It’s another strong step forward for Mayer, and a couple more wins on clay will get him in position for a seed at Roland Garros.  It’s an equally strong sign for Youzhny, who has seen his results yo-yo over the last few years.  His only strong showing so far in 2011 was a victory over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga back in February.

See you tomorrow!

Monte Carlo Projections

Clay court rankings and projections are tough.  Most of the top 50 ATP players only compete on clay for a couple months of the year, so at the beginning of the clay-court swing, we’re using surface-specific results from almost a year ago; at the end, we’re depending heavily on each player’s recent results.

Of course, the very top of the list is easy.  Rafael Nadal hasn’t lost a clay court match since the 2009 French Open.  It gets messy soon after that, since Nadal left the rest of the field fighting for crumbs.  Roger Federer is the clear #2 in this field, with Andy Murray a distant third.  (And maybe he should be even more distant.)

These projections are clay-specific, as you can probably tell by some of the percentages.  My clay rankings, however, are heavily regressed back to overall rankings so, for instance, Milos Raonic gets plenty of credit for his recent success on hard courts.  (And today he justified that credit.)

The tournament organizers made it tough for me to do pure projections, since four main draw matches were complete by the time qualifiers were placed.  Thus, the numbers are below are done as if I didn’t know anything about the outcome of today’s main draw matches.  I used rankings generated last Monday, so I might be selling Potito Starace (and, to a lesser extent, Victor Hanescu) a little short by excluding results from Casablanca.

Enjoy!

 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(1)Rafael Nadal         100% 92.7% 79.9% 66.8% 52.4% 36.6%
(q)Julien Benneteau      54%  4.4%  1.7%  0.6%  0.2%  0.0%
Jarkko Nieminen          46%  2.9%  1.0%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
(q)Vincent Millot        26%  5.6%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez   74% 31.8%  5.5%  2.1%  0.7%  0.2%
Denis Istomin            27% 12.8%  1.3%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%
(13)Richard Gasquet      73% 49.8% 10.3%  5.3%  2.4%  0.9% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga   59% 35.2% 17.0%  4.0%  1.7%  0.6%
Juan Monaco              41% 21.6%  8.9%  1.8%  0.7%  0.2%
Ivan Ljubicic            55% 25.5% 10.5%  2.2%  0.9%  0.2%
Jeremy Chardy            45% 17.7%  6.3%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%
(q)Olivier Rochus        46%  8.7%  2.6%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela       54% 12.4%  4.2%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%
(5)(WC)Tomas Berdych    100% 78.9% 50.5% 14.7%  7.8%  3.2% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(3)(WC)Andy Murray      100% 70.6% 54.3% 38.4% 16.5%  8.7%
(WC)Radek Stepanek       30%  5.9%  2.5%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%
Marcos Baghdatis         70% 23.5% 14.5%  7.8%  2.3%  0.8%
Albert Montanes          64% 30.9%  8.9%  4.0%  0.8%  0.2%
Xavier Malisse           36% 11.1%  2.0%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%
Thomaz Bellucci          52% 30.9% 10.1%  4.7%  1.1%  0.3%
(16)Gilles Simon         48% 27.0%  7.7%  3.4%  0.7%  0.2% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(10)Mikhail Youzhny      52% 38.1% 18.3%  7.0%  1.7%  0.5%
Florian Mayer            48% 33.3% 13.8%  4.8%  1.1%  0.3%
(q)Frederico Gil         41% 10.2%  2.1%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%
Sergiy Stakhovsky        59% 18.4%  5.0%  1.1%  0.1%  0.0%
Daniel Gimeno-Traver     40%  7.9%  2.9%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%
Santiago Giraldo         60% 15.6%  6.6%  1.8%  0.2%  0.1%
(8)Gael Monfils         100% 76.5% 51.3% 24.7%  7.7%  3.0% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(6)Fernando Verdasco    100% 71.3% 54.5% 31.0% 13.6%  5.2%
Tommy Robredo            73% 24.6% 15.1%  5.7%  1.6%  0.4%
Ivan Dodig               27%  4.0%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%
Kevin Anderson           44% 16.8%  3.4%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%
Fabio Fognini            56% 24.1%  6.0%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%
(WC)Jean-Rene Lisnard    14%  3.4%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%
(11)Viktor Troicki       86% 55.6% 19.2%  6.5%  1.7%  0.4% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
Ernests Gulbis           67% 44.8% 22.0% 12.2%  5.0%  1.8%
(14)Alexandr Dolgopolov  33% 16.9%  5.5%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1%
Milos Raonic             59% 24.4%  8.8%  3.9%  1.1%  0.3%
Michael Llodra           41% 13.9%  4.1%  1.4%  0.3%  0.1%
Janko Tipsarevic         55% 13.5%  5.3%  1.9%  0.4%  0.1%
Feliciano Lopez          45% 10.7%  3.7%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%
(4)David Ferrer         100% 75.8% 50.7% 31.4% 14.3%  6.0% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(7)Jurgen Melzer        100% 54.7% 29.3%  9.3%  4.2%  1.3%
Nikolay Davydenko        72% 37.5% 20.3%  6.8%  3.2%  1.1%
Robin Haase              28%  7.8%  2.6%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%
(q)Maximo Gonzalez       55% 12.3%  2.8%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
Victor Hanescu           45%  8.6%  1.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%
Marcel Granollers        16%  8.5%  2.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
(9)Nicolas Almagro       84% 70.5% 41.1% 15.2%  7.7%  2.8% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(15)Marin Cilic          86% 68.2% 19.9% 10.4%  4.8%  1.5%
(q)Filippo Volandri      14%  5.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%
(q)Pere Riba             43%  9.7%  1.0%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%
Potito Starace           57% 16.4%  1.7%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
Philipp Kohlschreiber    61% 11.6%  6.4%  3.0%  1.2%  0.3%
Andrey Golubev           39%  5.2%  2.4%  0.9%  0.3%  0.1%
(2)Roger Federer        100% 83.2% 68.1% 52.6% 39.0% 22.1%