French Open Odds Update: 3rd Round

Three-quarters of the field has been eliminated, and we’re left with 32 men standing. Who’s left: 6 of the top 8, 13 of the top 16, and 21 of the top 32. All the wild cards and lucky losers are out (though Marsel Ilhan went down fighting!) but of the 11 unseeded players still in the draw, an amazing six are qualifiers.

In the odds below, you might notice an interesting twist. Suddenly, Nadal is the favorite! As Juan Martin del Potro has taken care of business and ensured a third-round clash with Novak Djokovic, Djokovic’s chances of reaching each successive round have decreased. But the men in Nadal’s section have done him favors–especially qualifier Antonio Veic, who knocked out Nikolay Davydenko today. The Russian is always a threat, but I don’t think we can say the same about Veic.

Nadal’s chances are up to 26.9%, while Djokovic’s have fallen to 25.8%. Of course, both of those numbers are far beyond anyone else in the field. On the other end, qualifiers Veic and Steve Darcis have the smallest chances of winning the title–they each won it all only once per 50,000 simulations. The qualifier with the best chance is Lukasz Kubot, who is about 15 times more likely than Darcis to take home his first grand slam championship. 

Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             95.4%  78.9%  59.0%  …  26.9%  
(q)Antonio Veic              4.6%   0.9%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
Ivan Ljubicic               40.6%   7.4%   2.6%  …   0.2%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       59.4%  12.8%   5.8%  …   0.9%  
(10)Mardy Fish              54.4%  21.1%   5.3%  …   0.7%  
(18)Giles Simon             45.6%  16.1%   3.9%  …   0.4%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           14.6%   4.1%   0.5%  …   0.0%  
(5)Robin Soderling          85.4%  58.7%  22.8%  …   5.8%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(4)Andy Murray              88.7%  68.7%  60.9%  …  10.6%  
Michael Berrer              11.3%   3.4%   1.7%  …   0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     44.2%  11.6%   7.9%  …   0.2%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          55.9%  16.4%  11.8%  …   0.5%  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             51.0%  22.5%   3.6%  …   0.0%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          49.0%  22.0%   3.5%  …   0.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          60.9%  36.4%   7.6%  …   0.1%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              39.1%  19.2%   3.0%  …   0.0%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(7)David Ferrer             81.0%  49.2%  22.2%  …   3.0%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       19.0%   5.9%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
(q)Steve Darcis             14.6%   2.3%   0.2%  …   0.0%  
(9)Gael Monfils             85.4%  42.7%  17.1%  …   1.6%  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      50.2%  16.0%   7.1%  …   0.6%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      49.8%  16.0%   7.1%  …   0.6%  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        18.0%   7.0%   2.5%  …   0.1%  
(3)Roger Federer            82.0%  61.0%  42.7%  …  10.6%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
Fabio Fognini               36.6%  13.2%   1.3%  …   0.0%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  63.4%  33.1%   4.8%  …   0.3%  
Albert Montanes             43.1%  22.3%   2.7%  …   0.1%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         56.9%  31.4%   5.4%  …   0.3%  
(13)Richard Gasquet         63.6%  13.3%   9.4%  …   1.5%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         36.4%   4.9%   2.9%  …   0.2%  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   35.2%  26.9%  23.3%  …   8.7%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           64.8%  54.9%  50.2%  …  25.8%

French Open Odds Update: 2nd round

64 men are out of the draw, with the usual handful of first-round surprises. Murray’s quarter has gotten even weaker with the early exit of Nicolas Almagro, while Berdych’s 1st-round defeat doesn’t affect Djokovic’s odds much.

Oddly enough, there are more very-lopsided matchups in the 2nd round than there were in the first. Nadal, del Potro, and Djokovic all have a 93% chance of advancing to the third round, while Federer is above 91%. The only two ultra-tight matchups this round are in Melzer’s section, where Kevin Anderson and Juan Ignacio Chela are close to dead even, and Carlos Berlocq is roughly equal with qualifer Lukasz Kubot.

Remarkably, 8 of the 16 qualifiers got through to the second round, while 2 of the 6 lucky losers did so. 3 of the 8 wild cards advanced, though one of those was a foregone conclusion, as two WCs faced off in the first round.

Here are the odds for the rest of the tournament:

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             93.9%  75.0%  63.5%  …  22.0%  
Pablo Andujar                6.1%   1.7%   0.4%  …   0.0%  
(q)Antonio Veic             17.7%   1.2%   0.3%  …   0.0%  
(28)Nikolay Davydenko       82.3%  22.1%  12.4%  …   0.7%  
(24)Sam Querrey             41.4%  16.6%   2.9%  …   0.1%  
Ivan Ljubicic               58.6%  27.4%   6.3%  …   0.2%  
Xavier Malisse              23.7%   8.6%   1.2%  …   0.0%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       76.3%  47.4%  13.0%  …   0.9%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(10)Mardy Fish              71.1%  42.1%  17.5%  …   0.7%  
Robin Haase                 28.9%  10.7%   2.6%  …   0.0%  
Jeremy Chardy               35.0%  13.6%   3.7%  …   0.0%  
(18)Gilles Simon            65.0%  33.7%  12.8%  …   0.4%  
(27)Marcos Baghdatis        67.8%  24.1%  12.6%  …   0.3%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           32.2%   6.1%   1.9%  …   0.0%  
(q)Albert Ramos             10.1%   2.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(5)Robin Soderling          89.9%  67.0%  48.3%  …   5.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(4)Andy Murray              89.1%  80.3%  64.1%  …   8.8%  
(LL)Simone Bolelli          10.9%   5.9%   2.1%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Arnaud Clement          41.3%   4.8%   1.2%  …   0.0%  
Michael Berrer              58.7%   8.9%   3.1%  …   0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     66.2%  33.7%  10.3%  …   0.2%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       33.8%  12.2%   2.6%  …   0.0%  
Tobias Kamke                26.6%   9.6%   1.8%  …   0.0%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          73.4%  44.5%  14.9%  …   0.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             50.6%  16.0%   4.1%  …   0.0%  
Carlos Berlocq              49.4%  15.6%   4.0%  …   0.0%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          24.1%  11.9%   2.8%  …   0.0%  
(20)Florian Mayer           75.9%  56.6%  27.0%  …   0.5%  
(32)Kevin Anderson          51.4%  14.4%   6.3%  …   0.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          48.6%  14.2%   6.1%  …   0.0%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              15.3%   5.8%   2.1%  …   0.0%  
(8)Jurgen Melzer            84.7%  65.6%  47.6%  …   2.5%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(7)David Ferrer             77.4%  53.7%  34.7%  …   2.4%  
Julien Benneteau            22.6%   9.0%   3.3%  …   0.0%  
Kei Nishikori               68.8%  29.3%  15.2%  …   0.3%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       31.2%   8.0%   2.7%  …   0.0%  
(q)Steve Darcis             30.0%   6.0%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
Philipp Petzschner          70.0%  24.1%   7.8%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Guillaume Rufin         17.0%   6.8%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
(9)Gael Monfils             83.0%  63.1%  33.9%  …   1.4%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      75.3%  43.0%  15.1%  …   0.6%  
(q)Thomas Schoorel          24.7%   8.0%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
Igor Andreev                25.5%   7.3%   1.1%  …   0.0%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      74.5%  41.7%  14.5%  …   0.6%  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        68.9%  15.1%   6.5%  …   0.1%  
Pere Riba                   31.1%   4.0%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Maxime Teixeira          8.2%   2.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer            91.8%  78.1%  59.8%  …  11.5%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(q)Stephane Robert          32.4%   9.3%   2.4%  …   0.0%  
Fabio Fognini               67.6%  29.0%  11.7%  …   0.0%  
(LL)Marsel Ilhan            31.9%  15.3%   5.3%  …   0.0%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  68.1%  46.4%  25.8%  …   0.2%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       21.4%   5.0%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
Albert Montanes             78.6%  39.3%  22.0%  …   0.2%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           31.2%  12.9%   5.3%  …   0.0%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         68.8%  42.8%  26.1%  …   0.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(13)Richard Gasquet         79.7%  55.2%  11.7%  …   1.5%  
Marcel Granollers           20.3%   7.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
Andreas Seppi               33.0%   8.6%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         67.0%  28.4%   4.0%  …   0.2%  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   93.4%  35.1%  27.6%  …   9.8%  
Blaz Kavcic                  6.6%   0.3%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
Victor Hanescu               4.1%   0.4%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           95.9%  64.2%  55.4%  …  27.6%

Winners and Losers in the French Open Draw

Yesterday I offered a full breakdown of the French Open draw, with each player’s chances of advancing to each of several rounds.  In any draw of this kind, there are winners and losers, thanks to the luck of the … well, draw.

In a 128-player field seeded in the manner that Grand Slams are seeded, there are nearly 100,000 permutations of the draw.  The vast majority don’t matter — for instance, if you swapped Thiemo de Bakker and John Isner so that de Bakker played Nadal in the first round and Isner played Djokovic in the first round (instead of vice versa), no one’s chances of winning the title would change much.

But, of course, many of the possible permutations would matter a whole lot.  Just ask de Bakker or Isner!  Imagine how much better it would be for Isner to have a first round draw against, say, Yen-Hsun Lu, followed by a probable second-rounder against Sergiy Stakhovsky.  In fact, that’s Kei Nishikori’s draw, and in that sense, Nishikori was very lucky that the chips fell where they did.

Stepping back

In my previous draw simulations–like the one I published yesterday–I took the actual bracket as a given.  To generate the probabilities you see in yesterday’s chart, I had a computer program “play” the tournament 100,000 times, each time pitting Isner against Nadal in the first round, then the winner of that match against the winner of Giraldo/Andujar, and so on.

There’s a different way we could approach this.  Instead of starting the simulation from the point at which the draw is set, we could start from the point at which the field was set and seeded.  At that point, Isner would know that he is not seeded–and thus, that he would probably face a seed in the first or second round–but not which higher-ranked player he would face.

So, instead of 100,000 simulations of the actual French Open bracket, we can do 100,000 simulations of the draw itself, followed by simulating each ensuing bracket.  Sometimes, Isner draws Nadal, sometimes he draws Hanescu, and so on.

Measuring draw implications

A good way to gauge a player’s overall chances at a tournament is his predicted prize money.  Most players don’t have a significant chance of winning most tournaments (especially slams), so to compare Giraldo’s 0.01% chance of winning the title with Cuevas’s 0.02% chance doesn’t tell us much.  But if we consider the possibility that each player reaches each round, we can estimate that Giraldo will take home E24,600, while Cuevas will collect E29,500.  These numbers represent an average of the first-round prize money, second-round prize money, and so on, weighted by the probability that the player will reach each of those stages.

With this metric, we can compare the implications of the actual draw with the implications of the randomized draw, in which, for instance, Nadal could play any one of the 96 unseeded players in the first round.

Let’s compare the two outcomes in an extreme case.  As we’ve seen, the draw was not kind to John Isner.  My algorithm gives him a 12% chance of reaching the second round, and less than a 1% chance of reaching the semis.  Crunch the numbers, and you have predicted prize money of E22,700.  When you randomize the draw and he no longer has to beat Nadal in the first round, his chances of reaching the second round leap to 60%, and he has a 2% shot at a semifinal berth.  Predicted prize money: E40,100.

As it turns out, Isner is our biggest loser.  His predicted prize money fell more than 40% between the beginning and end of the draw ceremony.  What’s remarkable is that the next four players on the list all come from the same 1/16th of the draw–you guessed it, Djokovic’s section.

The draw effect on Thiemo de Bakker is similar to that on Isner–it doesn’t get any worse than drawing Djokovic in the first round.  Next on the list are Ernests Gulbis, Ivo Karlovic, and Juan Martin del Potro.  Karlovic and Gulbis not only have the misfortune of drawing Delpo in the first two rounds, but if by some chance they get past the Argentine, then they face Djokovic!  Each of those players lost more than 30% of their predicted prize money through the vagaries of the draw.

Del Potro is an interesting case.  As is, his predicted prize money is E184,600.  Before the draw was set, he could expect E266,000.  The biggest difference, of course, is his chance of reaching the round of 16.  In real life, he’ll need to beat Djokovic to get there, and he has a 30% chance of getting that far.  Before the bracket was drawn, the expectation was that he’d need only to defeat someone in the top 16 (or possibly, a player who had upset someone in the top 16).  He had a 63% chance of doing so.

Winners

Naturally, if there are so many players whose predicted prize money decreased, some players must have benefited from the way the draw played out.

One of the biggest winners was Andy Murray.  As we’ve seen, plenty of dangerous players are concentrated in Djokovic’s quarter; in fact, Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer were all hurt by the draw.  But Murray’s draw boosted his predicted prize money from E191,700 to E240,800.  He’ll face a qualifier or lucky loser in each of the first two rounds, then no one more challenging than Milos Raonic in the third.  Next would be Dolgopolov or Troicki–no walkovers, but compare that to Nadal’s possible fourth-rounder of Verdasco, and you see how the breaks went in Andy’s favor.

Murray’s quarter is the softest of the four, and other men benefit even more.  In fact, the two players whose chances the draw boosted the most are Nicholas Almagro and Jurgen Melzer, who will likely play in the fourth round for a matchup with Murray in the quarters.  Almagro, Melzer, and Juan Ignacio Chela (also in this section) all saw their predicted prize money jump by more than 40%.  For example, Almagro went from E76,100 to E112,400–and more than doubled his chances of winning the title from 0.6% to 1.3%–by landing where he did in the bracket.

Regardless of any player’s specific placement, the best man will probably win.  But the draw certainly has a say in how tricky the route to the title will be.

French Open Predictions

The qualifying rounds are over, and the draw is set.  I plugged the full 128-man bracket into my simulator, combined it with my most recent clay-specific rankings, and the full results are below.

A few quick hits on the draw and the simulation results:

  • All of the top three players have challenging draws.  Nadal faces Isner in the first, then possibly Davydenko in the third, Verdasco in the 4th, and Soderling in the quarters.  Federer drew Feliciano Lopez in the first.  And Djokovic got the worst possible outcome: Del Potro in the third.  There probably isn’t an upset there, but if anybody’s going to take Novak out before the final, Delpo’s my bet.
  • There are eight Americans in the draw.  The odds that a US player–any US player–wins the tourney is 0.83%.  The odds that all eight are knocked out in the first round?  0.85%.  Only Fish and Sweeting are favorites in their opening matches.
  • On the country-by-country theme, France has 20 men in the main draw, with a likelihood of just under 4% that a Frenchmen will win the title.  Spain has 14, for a total title shot of 26.4% — just below Djokovic’s chances by himself.
  • Some tight matchups in the first round: Fognini/Istomin, Hewitt/Montanes, Brands/Kukushkin, Paire/Hanescu (home court advantage flips that in Paire’s favor), Teixeira/Millot (two wild cards), Tomic/Berlocq, Gimeno-Traver/Haase, and Tursunov/Malisse.
  • The most lopsided first-rounder–according to the numbers–is Djokovic vs. de Bakker, followed by Andy Murray vs. Eric Prodon, the only two where my system gives the favorite a 90% chance of advancing.  There are plenty in the high 80’s, as well.

Here are the full simulation results:

Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             87.5%  81.4%  67.3%  …  21.30%  
John Isner                  12.5%   8.3%   4.2%  …   0.05%  
Santiago Giraldo            60.4%   6.9%   2.6%  …   0.01%  
Pablo Andujar               39.6%   3.5%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
Pablo Cuevas                67.0%  25.0%   4.0%  …   0.02%  
(q)Antonio Veic             33.0%   7.8%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
(q)Denis Gremelmayr         14.6%   4.8%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
(28)Nikolay Davydenko       85.4%  62.3%  19.8%  …   0.72%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(24)Sam Querrey             42.6%  20.5%   9.1%  …   0.04%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       57.4%  31.2%  15.7%  …   0.13%  
Ivan Ljubicic               72.0%  39.5%  20.6%  …   0.20%  
Somdev Devvarman            28.0%   8.8%   2.8%  …   0.00%  
Dmitry Tursunov             44.9%  12.1%   4.1%  …   0.00%  
Xavier Malisse              55.1%  16.4%   5.9%  …   0.01%  
Juan Monaco                 34.7%  21.0%   9.7%  …   0.04%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       65.3%  50.4%  32.1%  …   0.77%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(10)Mardy Fish              82.3%  59.3%  36.6%  …   0.70%  
Ricardo Mello               17.7%   6.5%   1.7%  …   0.00%  
Daniel Gimeno-Traver        47.9%  16.1%   6.2%  …   0.01%  
Robin Haase                 52.1%  18.1%   7.2%  …   0.02%  
Jeremy Chardy               52.5%  21.7%   9.1%  …   0.03%  
Grigor Dimitrov             47.5%  17.9%   7.2%  …   0.02%  
Michael Russell             16.0%   4.5%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
(18)Gilles Simon            84.0%  55.9%  31.0%  …   0.41%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(27)Marcos Baghdatis        71.6%  51.3%  20.0%  …   0.36%  
Frederico Gil               28.4%  14.1%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           58.4%  22.3%   5.0%  …   0.01%  
Dustin Brown                41.6%  12.3%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
(q)Albert Ramos             77.0%  10.8%   3.5%  …   0.00%  
(q)Javier Marti             23.0%   1.2%   0.1%  …   0.00%  
Benjamin Becker             10.4%   6.1%   2.1%  …   0.00%  
(5)Robin Soderling          89.6%  81.9%  64.0%  …   5.86%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(4)Andy Murray              91.0%  82.1%  60.3%  …   7.11%  
(q)Eric Prodon               9.0%   4.3%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Simon Bolelli           58.1%   8.6%   2.6%  …   0.01%  
(q)Frank Dancevic           41.9%   5.0%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Arnaud Clement          46.8%   9.2%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
Filippo Volandri            53.2%  12.0%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
Michael Berrer              19.2%  10.6%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
(26)Milos Raonic            80.8%  68.2%  29.4%  …   1.17%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     80.2%  48.8%  26.6%  …   0.14%  
Rainer Schuettler           19.8%   5.6%   1.4%  …   0.00%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       41.1%  16.6%   6.4%  …   0.00%  
Ryan Sweeting               58.9%  29.0%  13.7%  …   0.03%  
Tobias Kamke                39.2%  12.9%   4.8%  …   0.00%  
Olivier Rochus              60.8%  24.4%  11.5%  …   0.02%  
Julian Reister              27.6%  12.5%   4.7%  …   0.00%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          72.4%  50.1%  30.7%  …   0.22%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(11)Nicolas Almagro         82.4%  66.6%  46.5%  …   1.30%  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             17.6%   8.5%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
Carlos Berlocq              48.2%  11.6%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Bernard Tomic           51.8%  13.3%   5.0%  …   0.00%  
Potito Starace              55.8%  19.8%   6.4%  …   0.01%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          44.2%  13.4%   3.7%  …   0.00%  
Igor Kunitsyn               20.4%   8.3%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
(20)Florian Mayer           79.6%  58.5%  29.4%  …   0.36%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(32)Kevin Anderson          61.3%  34.3%  11.4%  …   0.02%  
Nicolas Mahut               38.7%  16.5%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          62.6%  33.8%  11.5%  …   0.02%  
(WC)Tim Smyczek             37.4%  15.3%   3.7%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Edouard Roger-Vasselin  54.4%  12.8%   6.0%  …   0.00%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              45.6%   9.4%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Andreas Beck            15.2%   7.6%   3.3%  …   0.00%  
(8)Jurgen Melzer            84.8%  70.2%  56.0%  …   2.09%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(7)David Ferrer             81.2%  65.7%  47.5%  …   2.54%  
Jarkko Nieminen             18.8%   9.9%   3.8%  …   0.00%  
Julien Benneteau            64.9%  18.2%   8.1%  …   0.03%  
Rui Machado                 35.1%   6.3%   1.8%  …   0.00%  
Kei Nishikori               78.9%  57.6%  27.6%  …   0.43%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 21.1%   9.2%   1.9%  …   0.00%  
(q)David Guez               32.2%   7.6%   1.4%  …   0.00%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       67.8%  25.6%   7.9%  …   0.01%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(22)Michael Llodra          73.5%  42.4%  17.7%  …   0.09%  
(q)Steve Darcis             26.5%   9.0%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
Philipp Petzschner          64.0%  34.4%  13.3%  …   0.03%  
Mischa Zverev               36.0%  14.2%   4.1%  …   0.01%  
Adrian Mannarino            56.9%  15.3%   6.6%  …   0.01%  
(WC)Guillaume Rufin         43.1%   9.6%   3.5%  …   0.00%  
(q)Bjorn Phau               12.1%   4.4%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(9)Gael Monfils             87.9%  70.6%  51.6%  …   1.45%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      85.8%  66.1%  40.1%  …   0.83%  
(q)Augustin Gensse          14.2%   5.2%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(q)Thomas Schoorel          55.6%  17.0%   6.2%  …   0.01%  
Maximo Gonzalez             44.4%  11.7%   3.8%  …   0.00%  
Florent Serra               37.4%   8.4%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
Igor Andreev                62.6%  19.4%   6.4%  …   0.01%  
Jan Hajek                   18.2%   8.4%   2.3%  …   0.00%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      81.8%  63.7%  37.8%  …   0.78%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        75.9%  46.3%  13.2%  …   0.11%  
Brian Dabul                 24.1%   8.1%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
Ivan Dodig                  61.9%  31.2%   7.7%  …   0.06%  
Pere Riba                   38.1%  14.4%   2.3%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Vincent Millot          46.5%   4.6%   1.5%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Maxime Teixeira         53.5%   6.1%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
Feliciano Lopez             23.4%  18.6%  11.9%  …   0.27%  
(3)Roger Federer            76.6%  70.7%  60.2%  …   9.85%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(6)Tomas Berdych            87.7%  68.0%  51.2%  …   1.58%  
(q)Stephane Robert          12.3%   3.9%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
Fabio Fognini               50.9%  15.1%   7.1%  …   0.01%  
Denis Istomin               49.1%  13.1%   6.3%  …   0.01%  
Tommy Haas                  26.8%   5.3%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Marsel Ilhan            73.2%  28.1%   7.4%  …   0.00%  
Robert Kendrick             22.6%   9.9%   1.9%  …   0.00%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  77.4%  56.7%  24.1%  …   0.13%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(19)Marin Cilic             88.4%  61.4%  42.6%  …   0.93%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       11.6%   2.7%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
Lleyton Hewitt              45.7%  14.7%   7.4%  …   0.03%  
Albert Montanes             54.3%  21.1%  11.2%  …   0.04%  
Daniel Brands               47.0%  15.8%   4.1%  …   0.00%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           53.0%  20.0%   5.7%  …   0.01%  
Go Soeda                    18.7%   6.8%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         81.3%  57.3%  26.9%  …   0.19%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(13)Richard Gasquet         69.1%  56.4%  40.9%  …   1.08%  
Radek Stepanek              30.9%  20.3%  10.8%  …   0.05%  
(LL)Alex Bogomolov Jr.      42.8%   8.7%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
Marcel Granollers           57.2%  14.6%   6.0%  …   0.00%  
Teymuraz Gabashvili         44.6%  12.8%   3.3%  …   0.00%  
Andreas Seppi               55.4%  20.6%   6.5%  …   0.01%  
Andrey Golubev              34.5%  20.1%   7.0%  …   0.01%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         65.5%  46.5%  22.5%  …   0.17%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   89.0%  72.9%  30.1%  …   8.40%  
Ivo Karlovic                11.0%   3.5%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
Ernests Gulbis              80.2%  21.5%   4.5%  …   0.20%  
Blaz Kavcic                 19.8%   2.0%   0.1%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Benoit Paire            51.7%   3.7%   0.5%  …   0.00%  
Victor Hanescu              48.3%   3.2%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
Thiemo De Bakker             6.3%   3.6%   0.6%  …   0.00%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           93.7%  89.5%  63.3%  …  27.42%

Updated Clay Rankings and Roland Garros Qualifying Threats

Last week, I wrote up a piece for ESPN.com that is supposed to run today.  I’ll post a link as soon as it’s up.  The article uses my ranking system to order the top players on clay, and of course, between last week’s deadline and this week’s publication, the ranking changed.

Here are some gainers and losers in my system heading into the French:

  • Djokovic is #1.  Now that he’s beaten Nadal twice in a row, it isn’t even close.  In Rome, my system gave Rafa a slight edge; if they meet in the French Open final, it thinks Novak has a 58% chance of winning.  Oddly enough, that percentage is a little stronger on clay now than it is on hard courts, though of course Djokovic is favored on all surfaces.
  • Murray is at #6, but basically tied for #5 with Soderling.  Coming into the clay season, he was outside the top ten on the surface; a couple of good results and he’s moving up the list.  If anything, his ranking underrates him, as we saw in his match against Djokovic last week.
  • Richard Gasquet is #8.  He’s been going deep almost every week, and he has lost only to the best.  If I were a top-8 player, I wouldn’t want to see him in my quarter of the draw.
  • A trio of disappointment: Mikhail Youzhny, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Juan Monaco.  Three very different players, none of whom are posting any results to be proud of.  Dolgo, especially, should do better–this could have been his season to break through. They sit at #33, #37, and #41, respectively.
Here are a handful of players who do well in my ranking system and are fighting through Roland Garros qualifying this week:
  • #60 Thomas Schoorel — he’s been a beast on the European challenger circuit lately, and he could make trouble for players who have yet to face the big serving of this tall lefty.
  • #66 Ryan Harrison
  • #71 Ilya Marchenko
  • #73 Andrey Kuznetsov (he’ll play Marchenko in the second round)
  • #87 Horacio Zeballos — I’ve mostly given up hope on the Argentine breaking through, but you never know.
  • All between #90 and #100, all into the second round: Facundo Bagnis, Evgeny Donskoy, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, and Federico del Bonis.
As soon as the qualifiers are placed in the main draw, I’ll run a simulation for the entire tournament.

Breaking In and Breaking Through

Yesterday we looked at players who broke into the top 100 when they were teenagers.  As expected, those guys generally went on to great success–17 of the last 25 eventually reached the top 10, and at least two more may still do so.

We can gain a broader perspective by analyzing more than just teenagers.  If a 19-year-old entering the top 100 is likely to become a top-10 player, what chances do 22-year-olds or 26-year-olds have?  By examining a few decades of the ATP ranking system, we can begin to answer these questions.

I used a sample of 590 players–everyone who entered the top 100 between 1980 and 2005.  (It’s possible that a few recent players will continue to improve, but the vast majority of players get close to their peak within five years, so 2005 seems like  a reasonable cutoff date.)  A bit less than half of those 590 broke into the top 100 between the ages of 20 and 22, about a third were older, and the remainder were teenagers.

As you can see in the table below, there is a clear correlation between breaking into the top 100 at an early age and reaching the higher echelons of the pro game.  In the last 30 years, only one #1-ranked player (Pat Rafter) hadn’t reached the top 100 as a teenager, and he made it into the top 100 when he was 20.  Almost every eventual top-10 player had broken into the top 100 by age 21.

Age  Players  Top50  Top20  Top10  Top5  Top1
16         4   100%   100%   100%   75%   50%
17        16   100%    88%    69%   56%   38%
18        38    87%    76%    61%   34%   11%
19        61    89%    48%    41%   20%    8%
20        88    86%    48%    25%   13%    1%
21        99    63%    22%    12%    7%    0%
22        83    47%     8%     5%    2%    0%
23        61    44%    16%     3%    0%    0%
24        62    31%     3%     0%    0%    0%
25        32    25%     0%     0%    0%    0%
26        10    60%    10%     0%    0%    0%
27        16    31%     0%     0%    0%    0%
28        10    20%     0%     0%    0%    0%
29+       10     0%     0%     0%    0%    0%

It’s not entirely clear that these trends are consistent from decade to decade–yesterday, I noted that fewer teenagers had reached the top 100 in the last ten years or so.  It’s possible that as the quality of the game improves and a larger amount of training is necessary to prepare for the pro tour, there will be fewer prodigies like Nadal, who broke in at age 16, and Richard Gasquet, who arrived as a 17-year-old.

But even if the ages shift by a year or two, the overall conclusions should hold.  The older you are when you arrive in the top 100, the less likely it is that you will advance considerably further.

One obvious application of this data is to make predictions regarding players as they enter the top 100.  The last two men to break in are Benoit Paire (age 22) and Matthias Bachinger (age 24).  Paire is still young enough to have an outside shot at the top 10; Bachinger will have a hard time doing much better than #50.  Another recent newbie is Go Soeda, a 26-year-old.  To find someone who made a top-20 success out of so late a breakthrough, you have to go back to Steve Denton in the mid-80s.

Another way to use this information is to find top prospects among current players.  Among active tour pros, the four men who broke in at the youngest ages are Nadal, Gasquet, Juan Martin del Potro, and Novak Djokovic.  The next two might surprise you: Kei Nishikori and Donald Young.  Nishikori has only now recovered from battles with injury–perhaps he will start to make good on his promise.  Young may be a unique case–were it not for his many, many wildcards, he would not have reached the top 100 so early.

Another surprise is the active player with the 10th-youngest age-of-reaching-100: Evgeny Korolev.  The Russian has also struggled with injury, but he did crack the top 50 last year.

The more oft-mentioned “prospects” are a little further down the list.  Grigor Dimitrov broke in at 19.7 years of age, while Milos Raonic appeared just after his 20th birthday–a few days older than the first appearance of Mischa Zverev.  Alexander Dolgopolov is further down than you might expect, having broken in at age 21.3, while Ryan Sweeting didn’t get there until 23.5.

Of course, “age of first appearance in the top 100” is just one metric, and it doesn’t tell the whole story.  Perhaps players who spend several years in college account for that blip in the table at age 23–John Isner, for instance, didn’t reach the top 100 until he was nearly 23, and he has already hit a peak ranking of #18.  The metric might also underrate the chances of those who suffer prolonged injury at an early age–perhaps if Nishikori had lost his two years to injury one season sooner, he would have only recently reached the top 100 with the same skills and potential.

Warts and all, this angle is a good reminder of why we should keep a close eye on youngsters in the futures and challenger tours–the latest, greatest 23-year-old is almost guaranteed not to be the future of the sport.

Teenagers in the Top 100

If Ryan Harrison qualifies for the French Open and reaches the second round, he’ll probably break into the top 100. I wouldn’t bet on that degree of success at Roland Garros, but the relevant point is that the young American is close–if he falters in Paris, a couple of deep runs at challenger events will do the trick.

Harrison just turned 19, and he is the youngest player in the top 150. When Grigor Dimitrov turns 20 next Monday, Harrison will the be the top-ranked 19-year-old in the world. There is a widespread sense that reaching the top 100 is one measure of “making it,” and an equally popular notion that if a player hits that benchmark at such a young age, he is probably destined for success.

Indeed, hitting the top 100 as a teenager is rare, and it’s getting even less common.  Of the 940 players who have spent time in the top 100 in the history of the ATP ranking computer, fewer than 150 (16%) broke in when they were teenagers.  Since the beginning of 2001, 209 players have broken in, including only 25 teenagers (12%).

As you might expect, those 25 have generally gone on to very successful careers.  20 have reached the top 20, and 17 have climbed into the top 10.  It’s even better than that, since in time, Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori seem likely to make those numbers 22 and 19 out of 25.

If Harrison breaks into the top 100 by the end of July, he’ll become the 20th youngest player to do so since the beginning of 2001.  If we want to get technical and limit the span to exactly 10 years, he’ll become the 16th youngest player since mid-2001.  (Early 2001 was a good time for teenagers, with Jose Acasuso, Andy Roddick, Mikhail Youhzny, and Tommy Robredo all reaching the top 100 in the span of three months.)

Incidentally, Bernard Tomic has a chance to make an even more impressive mark, as he is five and a half months younger than Harrison.  However, he’s 50 spots and 130 points lower on the ranking computer, so his appearance in the top 100 as a teenager seems far less assured.

After the jump, see the full list of teenagers who reached the top 100 since 2001.

Continue reading Teenagers in the Top 100

Rome Projections: Final 16

It’s tricky to do these at the beginning of tournaments this time of year — the first round is underway before the final of the previous event is over, and before the qualifying event is completed. But the schedule does tighten up later in the week, so it makes sense to run projections before the round of 16, all of those matches are set and none have been played.

I would make my usual comment about my system underrating Nadal’s dominance, but Rafa did lose a set today to Paolo Lorenzi. I don’t think Rafa will lose before the final, but it does put things in perspective a bit.

Player                    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Rafael Nadal        83.3% 69.2% 47.9% 31.1% 
Feliciano Lopez        16.7%  7.8%  2.4%  0.7% 
(11)Mardy Fish         47.9% 11.0%  3.6%  1.1% 
Marin Cilic            52.1% 12.1%  4.0%  1.1% 
(3)Roger Federer       80.6% 60.8% 31.1% 17.3% 
(16)Richard Gasquet    19.4%  8.9%  2.1%  0.5% 
(LL)Jarkko Nieminen    22.5%  2.8%  0.3%  0.0% 
(7)Tomas Berdych       77.5% 27.6%  8.5%  3.0%
 
Player                    QF    SF     F     W
Florian Mayer          70.4% 21.6%  4.5%  0.9% 
Juan Ignacio Chela     29.6%  4.8%  0.5%  0.1% 
Potito Starace         11.4%  3.9%  0.4%  0.0% 
(4)Andy Murray         88.6% 69.8% 29.4% 11.9% 
(5)Robin Soderling     62.7% 23.6% 13.6%  5.3% 
(9)Nicolas Almagro     37.3%  9.2%  4.1%  1.1% 
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 18.5%  7.7%  3.4%  0.9% 
(2)Novak Djokovic      81.5% 59.4% 44.0% 25.0%

Prospect Rankings, 5/9/11

Haven’t done one of these in a while.  Last week, Ryan Harrison turned 19, which moved Bernard Tomic up to #1 on the 18-and-under list.  Milos Raonic keeps climbing the charts, and may well be #1 on the 22-and-under list the next time I publish this.

18 AND UNDER
174 Bernard Tomic           AUS 10/21/92 
308 Facundo Arguello        ARG   8/4/92 
369 Diego Schwartzman       ARG  8/16/92 
394 Tiago Fernandes         BRA  1/29/93 
395 Yuki Bhambri            IND   7/4/92 
428 Benjamin Mitchell       AUS 11/30/92 
440 Denis Kudla             USA  8/17/92 
471 Alexander Rumyantsev    RUS  8/16/92 
477 Agustin Velotti         ARG  5/24/92 
481 Roberto Carballes-Baena ESP  3/23/93 
561 Carlos Boluda           ESP  1/22/93 
563 Guilherme Clezar        BRA 12/31/92 
575 Jack Sock               USA  9/24/92 
597 Jason Kubler            AUS  5/19/93 
640 Victor Baluda           RUS  9/30/92 
654 Suk-Young Jeong         KOR  4/12/93 
671 Micke Kontinen          FIN 12/18/92 
673 Jozef Kovalik           SVK  11/4/92 
692 Robert Rumler           CZE  12/1/93 
693 Sami Reinwein           GER  5/29/92 

20 AND UNDER
26  Milos Raonic        CAN 12/27/90 
64  Grigor Dimitrov     BUL  5/16/91 
81  Richard Berankis    LTU  6/21/90 
121 Ryan Harrison       USA   5/7/92 
166 Jerzy Janowicz      POL 11/13/90 
167 Vladimir Ignatik    BLR  7/14/90 
174 Bernard Tomic       AUS 10/21/92 
192 Federico del Bonis  ARG  10/5/90 
198 Andrey Kuznetsov    RUS  2/22/91 
204 Marius Copil        ROU 10/17/90 
214 Cedrik-Marcel Stebe GER  10/9/90 
216 David Goffin        BEL  7/12/90 
239 Jonathan Eysseric   FRA  5/27/90 
245 Javier Marti        ESP  1/11/92 
252 Guillaume Rufin     FRA  5/26/90 
257 Vasek Pospisil      CAN  6/23/90 
259 Alexander Lobkov    RUS  10/7/90 
279 Daniel Cox          GBR  9/28/90 
282 Pablo Carreno       ESP  7/12/91 
284 Gastao Elias        POR 11/24/90 

22 AND UNDER
20  Alexander Dolgopolov  UKR  11/7/88 
23  Marin Cilic           CRO  9/28/88 
26  Milos Raonic          CAN 12/27/90 
31  Juan Martin del Potro ARG  9/23/88 
53  Kei Nishikori         JPN 12/29/89 
54  Adrian Mannarino      FRA  6/29/88 
63  Ernests Gulbis        LAT  8/30/88 
64  Grigor Dimitrov       BUL  5/16/91 
74  Thiemo de Bakker      NED  9/19/88 
81  Richard Berankis      LTU  6/21/90 
94  Donald Young          USA  7/23/89 
98  Benoit Paire          FRA   5/8/89 
111 Thomas Schoorel       NED   4/8/89 
121 Ryan Harrison         USA   5/7/92 
130 Tatsuma Ito           JPN  5/18/88 
146 Joao Souza            BRA  5/27/88 
154 Martin Klizan         SVK  7/11/89 
166 Jerzy Janowicz        POL 11/13/90 
167 Vladimir Ignatik      BLR  7/14/90 
174 Bernard Tomic         AUS 10/21/92