Monday Topspin: A Title for Del Potro

Long-awaited return: Juan Martin Del Potro won his first title since the 2009 U.S. Open, defeating Janko Tipsarevic in straight sets in the final at Delray Beach.  The 6-4 6-4  result isn’t surprising, but it is gratifying to see Del Potro continue his ascent back to the top level of the game.

It was a tighter match than I expected.  Tipsarevic rushed out to a 4-1 lead, but Del Potro reeled off the next five games to win the set.  The Serbian had more success with his first serve, while Delpo won an impressive 63% of his second serve points.  The Argentine also fought off 10 of 11 break points–impressive enough, but if Tipsarevic hadn’t been playing well, he wouldn’t have had to work so hard.

The tournament win rockets Del Potro up the rankings–he now sits at 89th, 77 spots up from last week.  Of course, few rankings are less meaningful at this point than his.  He’ll get a wild card into any tournament he wants, at least for the next few months, and it’s just a matter of time before he works himself back into the top 20.  If not higher.

Other rankings movement: Other big movers this Monday are Richard Gasquet and Thomaz Bellucci, both of whom lost in semifinals last week.  They each gain 7 spots: Gasquet to 21, Bellucci to 29.

Evgeny Donskoy, who I’ve been writing about for the last few days, jumped to 200th in the world with his win in Casablance.  Belgian Ruben Bemelmans, who won in Wolfsburg, gains 36 spots to #144.

From the challengers, the biggest gainer is someone who didn’t make a final.  That’s Stefan Seifert, a 25-year-old German who came into the tournament ranked outside of the top 1,000.  He was wild-carded into qualifying and ultimately lost a three-setter to Bemelmans in the semis of the main draw.  He ascends to #591.  Best of all, his semifinal performance earned his entry to the main draw in Cherbourg, where he’ll face Arnaud Clement in the first round.

Davis Cup this week: Some first-round matches in the World Group are shaping up to be more unpredictable than usual.  The Russians and Czechs are limited by injuries, while the U.S. must compete on clay, without last year’s hero Mardy Fish.  Except for India-Serbia and Belgium-Spain, every tie is within reach of both countries.

I’ll preview some of the matchups in more detail starting tomorrow.

At the Challengers: With no ATP events this week, we have to look to the minor leagues for tournament action.  Fortunately, there are three such tourneys starting today.

Of the three, Dallas probably has the strongest field.  Among the seeds is the usual mix of veteran Americans, such as Robert Kendrick and Michael Russell.  What makes the event interesting is the smattering of young players.  Ryan Harrison is in the mix, and wild cards were awarded to Denis Kudla, Jack Sock, and Bernard Tomic.

Most of the Europeans, including a vast array of Frenchmen, are playing in Cherbourg.  Headlined by Grigor Dimitrov, the seeds include Nicolas Mahut, Clement, and Benoit Paire.

Finally, there’s clay court action in Salinas, with a draw including two of my favorites, Horacio Zeballos and Federico Del Bonis.  Plenty of tennis to follow between now and the weekend Davis Cup action.

See you tomorrow!

Thursday Topspin: Challenges and 21-year-olds

Unusual challenge: In his match yesterday against Marcel Granollers, Roger Federer used a challenge on his own first serve–nothing unusual there.  But in this case, the original call had been “in!”  Fed thought it was out and stopped playing the point accordingly.

He challenged, and he was right.  On his second delivery, he ended up losing the point anyway.

More Americans out: I mentioned yesterday that the way things have turned out, it hasn’t been a promoter’s dream in Delray Beach.  Andy Roddick withdrew, John Isner lost in the first round, and yesterday, both Sam Querrey and James Blake were defeated.  Blake, at least, fell to the popular Kei Nishikori, arguably the best young player not named Milos.

In fact, I was playing with rankings last night, and came up with something interesting.  Of players who have not yet reached their 22nd birthday, this is the top 10 in the world:

37   Milos Raonic        CAN  12/27/90  
66   Kei Nishikori       JPN  12/29/89  
74   Richard Berankis    LTU   6/21/90  
81   Grigor Dimitrov     BUL   5/16/91  
120  Benoit Paire        FRA    5/8/89  
138  Donald Young        USA   7/23/89  
143  Federico del Bonis  ARG   10/5/90  
148  Jerzy Janowicz      POL  11/13/90  
150  Ryan Harrison       USA    5/7/92  
160  Thomas Schoorel     NED    4/8/89

That’s pretty much a “who’s who” of up-and-coming young stars.  What it highlights for me is just how young some of these guys still are.  Sure, we all know that Raonic and Dimitrov are the wave of the future, but we’ve been following Nishikori for years.  He’s still this young, and if he can stay injury-free, he has a lot of time to climb to the top.

It’s even more surprising to see Donald Young here.  He’s been around forever, but he doesn’t turn 22 until July.  Put that in perspective: Had he gone to college and stayed for four years, he’d be in his junior or senior year right now, probably leading Georgia to the national title.

Seedless: The top-ranked players are having a tough time in Wolfsburg this week.  In the first round alone, the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd seeds feel.  5th-seeded Steve Darcis lost in the second round, leaving HT.com favorite Jesse Huta Galung as the presumptive favorite.

Yesterday: The biggest upset of the day was Ryan Sweeting‘s victory over Querrey.  In a minor coup, Sergey Stakhovsky defeated Ernests Gulbis in Dubai; for his efforts, he gets to face Federer in a few hours.  In Acupulco, Stanislas Wawrinka had to work hard, but he eventually got past Fabio Fognini 7-5 in the third.

Today: We’re mostly in quarterfinals now, so things are starting to get interesting.  After the Fed-Stakhovsky match, Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon duke it out for a spot in the semis.  I’ll be watching.

In Mexico, Wawrinka next has to face Alexander Dolgopolov, the most compelling matchup of the day in that tournament.  And in Delray, they are finishing up the second round.  Mardy Fish has what should be an easy match against Ricardo Mello, while Juan Martin Del Potro will be challenged by Teymuraz Gabashvili.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Morning: Roddick, Raonic, Rankings

Raonic and Roddick: The big story from the weekend is, once again, Milos Raonic.  He fought Andy Roddick to a third set in the Memphis final, before falling to this highlight reel shot.  While he didn’t match his result from San Jose, his run in Memphis was more impressive, as he beat Fernando Verdasco (again), Radek Stepanek, and Mardy Fish to get as far as he did.

Raonic has climbed all the way to 37 in the ATP rankings, guaranteeing him entry to just about every tournament for the rest of the year.  This week, he’s one of the few players jumping to Acupulco, where he’ll meet Carlos Berlocq in the first round and face a possible second-round matchup with Alexander Dolgopolov.

Given Milos’s extreme serve-oriented game, it’s tough to imagine him having much success on clay–at least right now.  Indeed, he only played two matches on clay in all of 2010, and those were Davis Cup against Colombia.  (He lost both.)  You have to go back to 2009 to find some tournament results on clay, and let’s just say those aren’t pretty.

Elsewhere: In other finals yesterday, Robin Soderling beat Marin Cilic, and Nicholas Almagro beat Juan Ignacio Chela.  Both men won their second consecutive tournament.  Raonic ensured that the US circuit has gotten the most attention, but the quality of play in Europe and South America has probably been higher.  Marseilles was only an ATP 250, but four of the top 11 players, plus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, were in the draw.

Wozniacki #1: Caroline Wozniacki won in Dubai, giving her the #1 spot in the WTA rankings.  That sparked a lengthy back-and-forth at Tennis.com which reveals one problem with any ranking system: It’s not at all clear what it’s supposed to accomplish.  It is supposed to be fair, whatever that means?  Should it work like a club ladder?  Which sorts of players should it allow into tournaments?

These are all tough questions, and the presence of Kim Clijsters and the Williams sisters–extremely talented players who are not #1 but could win any tournament they enter–makes it all the more complicated on the women’s side.

I’ve tinkered a fair bit with alternative methods of ranking players, and a frequent surprise is that the rankings are actually pretty good at predicting who will win any given match.  There are various ways to make them a little better, but if a primary goal of the rankings is to present an understandable system to the fans, nothing I’ve devised constitutes an improvement.

This week: The men are playing in Acupulco, Delray Beach, and Dubai.  The lineups in Acupulco and Delray Beach look familiar, since they aren’t that different from Buenos Aires and Memphis, respectively.

Dubai, though, looks like they spent some serious money on appearance fees, with both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on board.  It’s too bad Soderling is taking the week off; it would be nice to see him in his current form against one or both of those guys.

Most of the top women are in Doha, including Wozniacki, while Acupulco is hosting a WTA event as well.

Check back tomorrow for updates on these tournaments, and more.