Rankings – Page 6 – Heavy Topspin

Breaking In and Breaking Through

Yesterday we looked at players who broke into the top 100 when they were teenagers. As expected, those guys generally went on to great success–17 of the last 25 eventually reached the top 10, and at least two more may still do so.

We can gain a broader perspective by analyzing more than just teenagers. If a 19-year-old entering the top 100 is likely to become a top-10 player, what chances do 22-year-olds or 26-year-olds have? By examining a few decades of the ATP ranking system, we can begin to answer these questions.

I used a sample of 590 players–everyone who entered the top 100 between 1980 and 2005. (It’s possible that a few recent players will continue to improve, but the vast majority of players get close to their peak within five years, so 2005 seems like a reasonable cutoff date.) A bit less than half of those 590 broke into the top 100 between the ages of 20 and 22, about a third were older, and the remainder were teenagers.

As you can see in the table below, there is a clear correlation between breaking into the top 100 at an early age and reaching the higher echelons of the pro game. In the last 30 years, only one #1-ranked player (Pat Rafter) hadn’t reached the top 100 as a teenager, and he made it into the top 100 when he was 20. Almost every eventual top-10 player had broken into the top 100 by age 21.

Age  Players  Top50  Top20  Top10  Top5  Top1
16         4   100%   100%   100%   75%   50%
17        16   100%    88%    69%   56%   38%
18        38    87%    76%    61%   34%   11%
19        61    89%    48%    41%   20%    8%
20        88    86%    48%    25%   13%    1%
21        99    63%    22%    12%    7%    0%
22        83    47%     8%     5%    2%    0%
23        61    44%    16%     3%    0%    0%
24        62    31%     3%     0%    0%    0%
25        32    25%     0%     0%    0%    0%
26        10    60%    10%     0%    0%    0%
27        16    31%     0%     0%    0%    0%
28        10    20%     0%     0%    0%    0%
29+       10     0%     0%     0%    0%    0%

It’s not entirely clear that these trends are consistent from decade to decade–yesterday, I noted that fewer teenagers had reached the top 100 in the last ten years or so. It’s possible that as the quality of the game improves and a larger amount of training is necessary to prepare for the pro tour, there will be fewer prodigies like Nadal, who broke in at age 16, and Richard Gasquet, who arrived as a 17-year-old.

But even if the ages shift by a year or two, the overall conclusions should hold. The older you are when you arrive in the top 100, the less likely it is that you will advance considerably further.

One obvious application of this data is to make predictions regarding players as they enter the top 100. The last two men to break in are Benoit Paire (age 22) and Matthias Bachinger (age 24). Paire is still young enough to have an outside shot at the top 10; Bachinger will have a hard time doing much better than #50. Another recent newbie is Go Soeda, a 26-year-old. To find someone who made a top-20 success out of so late a breakthrough, you have to go back to Steve Denton in the mid-80s.

Another way to use this information is to find top prospects among current players. Among active tour pros, the four men who broke in at the youngest ages are Nadal, Gasquet, Juan Martin del Potro, and Novak Djokovic. The next two might surprise you: Kei Nishikori and Donald Young. Nishikori has only now recovered from battles with injury–perhaps he will start to make good on his promise. Young may be a unique case–were it not for his many, many wildcards, he would not have reached the top 100 so early.

Another surprise is the active player with the 10th-youngest age-of-reaching-100: Evgeny Korolev. The Russian has also struggled with injury, but he did crack the top 50 last year.

The more oft-mentioned “prospects” are a little further down the list. Grigor Dimitrov broke in at 19.7 years of age, while Milos Raonic appeared just after his 20th birthday–a few days older than the first appearance of Mischa Zverev. Alexander Dolgopolov is further down than you might expect, having broken in at age 21.3, while Ryan Sweeting didn’t get there until 23.5.

Of course, “age of first appearance in the top 100” is just one metric, and it doesn’t tell the whole story. Perhaps players who spend several years in college account for that blip in the table at age 23–John Isner, for instance, didn’t reach the top 100 until he was nearly 23, and he has already hit a peak ranking of #18. The metric might also underrate the chances of those who suffer prolonged injury at an early age–perhaps if Nishikori had lost his two years to injury one season sooner, he would have only recently reached the top 100 with the same skills and potential.

Warts and all, this angle is a good reminder of why we should keep a close eye on youngsters in the futures and challenger tours–the latest, greatest 23-year-old is almost guaranteed not to be the future of the sport.

Teenagers in the Top 100

If Ryan Harrison qualifies for the French Open and reaches the second round, he’ll probably break into the top 100. I wouldn’t bet on that degree of success at Roland Garros, but the relevant point is that the young American is close–if he falters in Paris, a couple of deep runs at challenger events will do the trick.

Harrison just turned 19, and he is the youngest player in the top 150. When Grigor Dimitrov turns 20 next Monday, Harrison will the be the top-ranked 19-year-old in the world. There is a widespread sense that reaching the top 100 is one measure of “making it,” and an equally popular notion that if a player hits that benchmark at such a young age, he is probably destined for success.

Indeed, hitting the top 100 as a teenager is rare, and it’s getting even less common. Of the 940 players who have spent time in the top 100 in the history of the ATP ranking computer, fewer than 150 (16%) broke in when they were teenagers. Since the beginning of 2001, 209 players have broken in, including only 25 teenagers (12%).

As you might expect, those 25 have generally gone on to very successful careers. 20 have reached the top 20, and 17 have climbed into the top 10. It’s even better than that, since in time, Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori seem likely to make those numbers 22 and 19 out of 25.

If Harrison breaks into the top 100 by the end of July, he’ll become the 20th youngest player to do so since the beginning of 2001. If we want to get technical and limit the span to exactly 10 years, he’ll become the 16th youngest player since mid-2001. (Early 2001 was a good time for teenagers, with Jose Acasuso, Andy Roddick, Mikhail Youhzny, and Tommy Robredo all reaching the top 100 in the span of three months.)

Incidentally, Bernard Tomic has a chance to make an even more impressive mark, as he is five and a half months younger than Harrison. However, he’s 50 spots and 130 points lower on the ranking computer, so his appearance in the top 100 as a teenager seems far less assured.

After the jump, see the full list of teenagers who reached the top 100 since 2001.

Continue reading Teenagers in the Top 100

Monday Topspin: Seven in a Row

King of Clay: It’s no shocker, but it’s still mighty impressive. Rafael Nadal won his 7th consecutive Monte Carlo championship, defeating David Ferrer in a tight match. It’s a sign of just how dominant Rafa is on clay that his last two matches actually represent a step forward for the field–Andy Murray took a set on Saturday, and there was very little separating Nadal and Ferrer yesterday.

In fact, if I were a fellow player watching those matches, I might think–for the first time in at least a year–that Nadal can be beaten. Murray showed that you can beat him (at least for a string of several games) at his own game, with a heavy dose of patient defense and the occasional attack. Yesterday, Rafa was off his game, and it was enough to give Ferrer several chances. In fact, here’s a bold prediction for you: I’m going on record saying that Nadal will lose a match on clay this year.

Betting on it: I don’t think the oddsmakers agree with me. The betting lines on Nadal’s matches last week were absolutely off the charts. Before Rafa’s second-rounder with Jarkko Nieminen, at one point you could have gotten 120-1 odds on the Finn. Sportsbooks were giving both Richard Gasquet and Ivan Ljubicic about a 3.5% chance of winning, and even Andy Murray merited only a 9% chance. Hey, maybe those odds are correct, but … a top 5 player going off at 11-1? Amazing.

Rankings: The biggest points gainer of the week is Ferrer, who improved on his previous result in Monte Carlo, but he stays at #6, merely closing the gap separating him from Robin Soderling. Other players whose rankings benefited from the tournament include Milos Raonic, up 6 places to #28, Ivan Ljubicic, up 7 to #33, and surprise quarterfinalist Frederico Gil, up 18 to a new career high of #64.

Two challenger winners climbed to new career highs: Matthias Bachinger, champion in Athens, breaks into the top 100 for the first time at #99, while Thomas Schoorel, the Rome titlist, jumps 36 places to 126. Also notable is Tallahassee winner Donald Young, up 24 to #98.

The loser of the week is, without question, Fernando Verdasco. Finalist last year in Monte Carlo, he lost his first match and his place in the top 10, falling four places to #12.

Barcelona: The first round in Spain is in progress, and after the star-studded cast in Monte Carlo, it’s a bit of a letdown. While there’s plenty of firepower at the top of the draw–Nadal, Murray, Ferrer, and Soderling are all present–the top eight seeds have byes in the first round, leaving something that looks more like Monte Carlo qualifying. The highlight of today’s action is probably the last match of the day, between Juan Monaco and Grigor Dimitrov.

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the biggest story of the opening round: the return of Juan Carlos Ferrero. He hasn’t played since last year’s U.S. Open, and has seen his ranking fall to #77 in that time. He’ll begin with a match against Xavier Malisse for a chance to play Murray.

Beyond that, it’s a clay-courter’s paradise. 14 of the 56 men in the main draw are Spainards, and the percentage of locals may climb even higher after the first round. Also of interest in the country count: There’s only one American in the draw, and it’s Robert Kendrick. That must be a first for him at the ATP level.

Housekeeping: As regular readers surely noticed, I wasn’t able to keep up my daily schedule last week. Unfortunately, that’s probably a sign of things to come. I’ll keep posting as much as my schedule allows.

Also, later today, as soon as I can get my databases updated, I’ll post my projections for Barcelona. It will be a little silly with so much of the first round on record, but I like to get this stuff on record.

Monday Topspin: Thriller

Djokovic undefeated: Novak Djokovic has yet to lose a match this season, and now holds two consecutive masters crowns. In the process, he opened up some distance between himself and Roger Federer in the ATP rankings, and planted the seed in some people’s minds that he might be deserving of the #1 spot. By just about any standard, he’s already the best player in the world on hard courts.

It wasn’t easy. As in Indian Wells two weeks ago, Rafael Nadal came out in fine form, taking the first set after racing to a 5-1, double-break lead. Djokovic narrowed the gap but was unable to make up the difference. The Serbian won a hard-fought second set, then the two players settled in to trade service holds up to a tiebreak. Djokovic got a couple of mini-breaks, including one on a Nadal double fault, and won the match 4-6 6-3 7-6(4).

What amazes me is how anybody beats either of these guys, particularly Nadal. I know from the stats that he made his share of unforced errors (including several double faults), but I can’t remember very many of them. What sticks in the mind is Rafa running down everything, turning defensive positions into offensive shots, over and over again. Both players were near the top of their game yesterday, and Djokovic was able to rack up a just a few more winners.

The one baffling thing is Nadal’s reluctance to come to net. (I know, I’m starting to sound like a TV announcer–I promise it’s just a coincidence that I’m making this sort of comment two days in a row.) He was often standing right on the baseline, even hitting groundstrokes from a step inside the baseline. Yet he almost never came forward unless forced. Even with an imperfect net game, even against the passing-shot machine that is Djokovic, I think he would’ve been more successful taking advantage of some of those offensive positions.

Now, we have two streaks to watch going into the clay-court season. Both players will be at the Monte Carlo Masters, where Djokovic will try to build on his 26-match winning streak. Nadal has a 24-match winning streak on clay, including every match he played last year plus two Davis Cup rubbers in 2009. One of them will have to fall by this time two weeks from now, and I suspect it will be Djokovic’s turn to play runner-up.

Rankings: The major storyline this week is the arrival of a new American #1. Mardy Fish jumped four spots to #11 with his semifinal showing in Miami, while Andy Roddick fell to #14 by failing to defend his title. That’s Roddick’s lowest ranking since Wimbledon, 2002, and it’s Fish’s career high.

Robin Soderling also failed to defend his 2010 points, and handed the #4 spot back to Andy Murray.

Other gainers this week are Gilles Simon (up 4 to #23), Kevin Anderson (up 7 to #33), Janko Tipsarevic (up 6 to #38), Juan Martin del Potro (up 6 to #45), and Olivier Rochus (up 13 to #73).

Four players hit important milestones with Challenger-level wins. Andreas Haider-Maurer broke into the top 100 for the first time with a win at Caltanissetta and a semifinal showing at Barletta. Facundo Bagnis and Maxime Teixeira won tournaments in Barranquilla and St. Brieuc, respectively, each reaching the top 200 for the first time in their young careers. The most remarkable result belongs to Aljaz Bedene, a Slovenian who won in Barletta on a wild card. Bedene ascends 206 ranking spots to #282, only 16 off his career high.

Houston qualifying: By the end of the day, the last four players will be entered into the draw at the U.S. Clay Court Championships. The final four qualifying matches each have one American, with Alex Bogomolov, Donald Young, Tim Smyczek, and Rajeev Ram still in the running. It won’t be easy for these guys to make the main draw, however, as Young must defeat Ivo Karlovic, and Ram needs to beat Paul Capdeville.

With less tennis to watch this week, I’m hoping to break out some clay-court rankings by next Monday, as well as a couple of other mini-studies I’m working on. Stay tuned!

Hard Court Singles Rankings, 3/21/11

About two weeks ago, I introduced my ranking system. Much of the rationale is explained here. The important thing to keep in mind is that the system is designed to be predictive–that is, it values the things that tend to correctly forecast the outcome of matches.

Since then, I’ve made a few tweaks under the hood. For the most part, the changes don’t affect the rankings, they just adjust the differences between players to better reflect surface-specific skills.

Still, Roger Federer is hanging on at the top, though it’s so close that it should be considered virtually a tie. My algorithm to predict the outcome of individual matches also takes head-to-head results into account, and given Novak Djokovic’s recent dominance, that algorithm now gives Djokovic the slight edge in a battle with Federer.

The real value, here, is a little further down the list, as this system is much better than the ATP rankings at measuring the skill level of players who are scoring big upsets and enjoying recent success. To wit, Ivo Karlovic is up to #33 here, in part thanks to his giant-killing run last week. Also, my system places Ryan Harrison at #71 and Donald Young at #82 for similar reasons.

I intended for this to be a top 100, but #101 is Somdev Devvarman, notable due to his string of upsets, which moved him all the way up from #147.

1   Roger Federer          8191 
2   Novak Djokovic         8076 
3   Andy Murray            4749 
4   Rafael Nadal           4654 
5   Robin Soderling        4205 
6   Juan Martin del Potro  4047 
7   Nikolay Davydenko      2853 
8   David Ferrer           2772 
9   Stanislas Wawrinka     2660 
10  Andy Roddick           2494 
11  Tomas Berdych          2268 
12  Gael Monfils           2088 
13  Marcos Baghdatis       1879 
14  Mardy Fish             1838 
15  Marin Cilic            1666 
16  Fernando Verdasco      1603 
17  Jurgen Melzer          1565 
18  David Nalbandian       1547 
19  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     1475 
20  Ivan Ljubicic          1449 

21  Michael Llodra         1385 
22  Richard Gasquet        1367 
23  Florian Mayer          1335 
24  Milos Raonic           1308 
25  Mikhail Youzhny        1276 
26  Gilles Simon           1235 
27  Nicolas Almagro        1209 
28  Alexander Dolgopolov   1124 
29  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1038 
30  Philipp Kohlschreiber  1030 
31  Viktor Troicki         1020 
32  Juan Monaco            1011 
33  Ivo Karlovic            994 
34  Radek Stepanek          989 
35  Albert Montanes         974 
36  Tommy Robredo           885 
37  Samuel Querrey          840 
38  Lleyton Hewitt          835 
39  John Isner              834 
40  Ernests Gulbis          782 

41  Jeremy Chardy           780 
42  Feliciano Lopez         765 
43  Janko Tipsarevic        728 
44  Julien Benneteau        695 
45  Kei Nishikori           666 
46  Xavier Malisse          634 
47  Jarkko Nieminen         624 
48  Dmitry Tursunov         603 
49  Fernando Gonzalez       597 
50  Juan Carlos Ferrero     596 
51  Thomaz Bellucci         586 
52  Andrei Goloubev         513 
53  Andreas Seppi           484 
54  Benjamin Becker         482 
55  Michael Berrer          465 
56  Thiemo de Bakker        453 
57  Juan Ignacio Chela      450 
58  Olivier Rochus          444 
59  Pablo Cuevas            441 
60  Igor Andreev            430 

61  Fabio Fognini           427 
62  Philipp Petzschner      423 
63  Santiago Giraldo        417 
64  James Blake             416 
65  Sergey Stakhovsky       399 
66  Ivan Dodig              384 
67  Denis Istomin           382 
68  Michael Zverev          369 
69  Robin Haase             364 
70  Arnaud Clement          364 
71  Ryan Harrison           360 
72  Daniel Gimeno           350 
73  Marcel Granollers       346 
74  Leonardo Mayer          343 
75  Robby Ginepri           338 
76  Paul-Henri Mathieu      335 
77  Lukasz Kubot            332 
78  Daniel Brands           330 
79  Alejandro Falla         327 
80  Mikhail Kukushkin       320 

81  Dudi Sela               309 
82  Donald Young            304 
83  Victor Hanescu          296 
84  Teimuraz Gabashvili     295 
85  Grigor Dimitrov         280 
86  Florent Serra           277 
87  Lukas Lacko             276 
88  Horacio Zeballos        276 
89  Ryan Sweeting           273 
90  Adrian Mannarino        272 
91  Yen-Hsun Lu             271 
92  Kevin Anderson          269 
93  Rainer Schuettler       267 
94  Edouard Roger-Vasselin  266 
95  Richard Berankis        266 
96  Bernard Tomic           263 
97  Marco Chiudinelli       261 
98  Nicolas Mahut           261 
99  Simon Greul             259 
100 Frederico Gil           258 
101 Somdev K. Dev Varman    258

Monday Topspin: Djokovic Keeps Winning

Another day at the office: Novak Djokovic is still undefeated in 2011. For the second time, he earned a championship the hard way, beating Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the same tournament. He wins the Indian Wells crown for the second time as well, and his victory moves him into the #2 spot in the ATP rankings.

Nadal may not be playing his best tennis, but the first set, at least, was absolutely gripping. Both players are so athletic and skilled on the defense that many rallies made them look like counterpunchers, except both guys were hitting the ball too hard for that. In the first set and the beginning of the second, Djokovic appeared to suffer the same lapse that lost him a set against Federer. But as in the semifinal, he came back in plenty of time.

It was Nadal whose racquet ultimately let him down. The biggest difference between the Rafa of last September and the Rafa of right now is his serve. In the sets he lost, the first serve percentage was dreadful: 25% in the second and 45% in the third. Even when it was going in, it was hardly a weapon. Nadal’s return game alone is good enough to beat most people, but not Djokovic, certainly not right now.

In Miami, Djokovic can pad his lead over Federer, but #2 remains in play. Last year, Djokovic lost in the 2nd round to Olivier Rochus, while Federer fell in the 4th to Tomas Berdych. To take back #2, Federer needs to win the tournament, and even then, he’ll need Novak to lose in the semis or earlier.

Federer at #3 makes every tournament draw a little more interesting: There’s the possibility of a Nadal-Federer semifinal. If not, Federer could line up to face Djokovic is the semi. The latter is a familiar sight, and it’s still an exciting one.

New rankings: With Indian Wells on the board along with two weeks worth of challengers, there is an enormous amount of movement. The biggest winner is Djokovic, moving one spot closer to #1. Both Juan Martin del Potro and Ivo Karlovic made big strides in their comebacks: Delpo jumped 39 spots to #51, and Karlovic is up 86 places to 153.

Four players reached a new career high thanks to their performances in California: Milos Raonic gained three more places to #34, Somdev Devvarman goes up to #73, Ryan Sweeting breaks into the top 100 at #91, and Ryan Harrison advances 22 spots to #130.

Several players made triple-digit jumps as well. Cedrik-Marcel Stebe moves into the top 250, landing at #234 after challenger semifinal appearances in two consecutive weeks. Amer Delic, a former top-60 player returning from injury, gains 141 places to #303 after his championship in Sarajevo. Rohan Bopanna, on the strength of qualifying for Indian Wells, jumps 119 spots to #510, and Wayne Odesnik, winner at USA F7 two weeks ago, lands at #538, an 135-place improvement.

Challenger results: Yesterday I reported on the final in Guangzhou, which leaves us four more challengers to touch on. In Le Gosier, Olivier Rochus triumphed over countryman Stephane Robert. It’s a bigger accomplishment than the usual victory at that level: Le Gosier is at one of the highest rungs of prize money ($100,000), and the draw was full of top-100 players who made early exits from Indian Wells.

In fact, while Rochus won the title and advanced back into the top 100, Robert could be said to have had the better week. En route to the final, he defeated Dustin Brown, Pablo Andujar, Marsel Ilhan, and top seed Jarkko Nieminen. As if that wasn’t enough, he teamed with Riccardo Ghedin to win the doubles–over Rochus and Arnaud Clement.

At an indoor tourney in Rimouski, Canada, the field wasn’t nearly as strong. The title match was plenty exciting, as Fritz Wolmarans defeated Bobby Reynolds in a third-set tiebreak.

The San Jose challenger, in Costa Rica, attracted plenty of South American talent, despite its hard courts. Returning to the winner’s circle was Ecuador’s Giovanni Lapentti, who won in straight sets over Igor Kunitsyn.

Finally, a clay court challenger took place in Rabat, where the Czech Ivo Minar won the title, getting past Peter Luczak in the final. The surprise performance of the week belongs to the unheralded Tunisian Malek Jaziri, who entered on a wild card. His second and third round opponents were a wild card and a qualifier, respectively, but to get there, he had to defeat fourth-seed Jaroslav Pospisil in his opening match.

Tomorrow we’ll take a look at the fields in the coming week. See you then!

Hard-Court Singles Rankings

If you’ve found your way here from the Wall Street Journal, welcome! If you don’t know what I’m talking about, go read what Carl Bialik has to say in today’s paper, and in an online follow-up. I’ve written at length about my rankings and prediction system and published full odds for Indian Wells here.

As you may have read in the Wall Street Journal, my ranking system rates Federer number one. The difference between Fed and Nadal is even more striking if we use my hard-court-specific rankings. However, in the hard-court-specific rankings, Djokovic closes the gap quite a bit.

Before you email me to tell me what an idiot I am for publishing something so blatantly wrong, please read my description of what the system does.

The goal of these rankings isn’t to say who is the greatest of all time, or to say that any player here is guaranteed to beat anyone below him. Instead, they are the result of an algorithm that is better than anything else I’ve seen at predicting the outcome of tennis matches.

Here are the current top 100 hard-court players, along with the hard-court rankings of several other players who are in the Indian Wells main draw:

1   Roger Federer          8579 
2   Novak Djokovic         6853 
3   Andy Murray            5013 
4   Rafael Nadal           4892 
5   Robin Soderling        4363 
6   Juan Martin del Potro  3624 
7   Nikolay Davydenko      3118 
8   David Ferrer           2913 
9   Andy Roddick           2671 
10  Tomas Berdych          2284 
11  Gael Monfils           2226 
12  Stanislas Wawrinka     2094 
13  Marcos Baghdatis       2062 
14  David Nalbandian       1967 
15  Mardy Fish             1961 
16  Marin Cilic            1779 
17  Fernando Verdasco      1709 
18  Jurgen Melzer          1615 
19  Ivan Ljubicic          1602 
20  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     1565 

21  Michael Llodra         1475 
22  Mikhail Youzhny        1317 
23  Gilles Simon           1314 
24  Florian Mayer          1312 
25  Nicolas Almagro        1305 
26  Milos Raonic           1231 
27  Alexander Dolgopolov   1223 
28  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1109 
29  Juan Monaco            1102 
30  Richard Gasquet        1091 
31  Radek Stepanek         1044 
32  Viktor Troicki         1021 
33  John Isner              901 
34  Lleyton Hewitt          883 
35  Tommy Robredo           867 
36  Albert Montanes         841 
37  Jeremy Chardy           840 
38  Ernests Gulbis          820 
39  Philipp Kohlschreiber   796 
40  Feliciano Lopez         787 

41  Samuel Querrey          773 
42  Janko Tipsarevic        734 
43  Fernando Gonzalez       711 
44  Julien Benneteau        695 
45  Kei Nishikori           686 
46  Jarkko Nieminen         638 
47  Juan Carlos Ferrero     635 
48  Dmitry Tursunov         633 
49  Xavier Malisse          588 
50  Thomaz Bellucci         578 
51  Ivo Karlovic            559 
52  Andreas Seppi           507 
53  Andrei Goloubev         488 
54  Benjamin Becker         487 
55  Michael Berrer          466 
56  Thiemo de Bakker        457 
57  Igor Andreev            455 
58  Olivier Rochus          449 
59  Philipp Petzschner      447 
60  Juan Ignacio Chela      434 

61  Fabio Fognini           434 
62  James Blake             432 
63  Pablo Cuevas            426 
64  Santiago Giraldo        413 
65  Sergey Stakhovsky       402 
66  Denis Istomin           400 
67  Ivan Dodig              389 
68  Arnaud Clement          375 
69  Michael Zverev          367 
70  Robin Haase             367 
71  Leonardo Mayer          352 
72  Robby Ginepri           351 
73  Marcel Granollers       350 
74  Daniel Brands           345 
75  Alejandro Falla         341 
76  Daniel Gimeno           341 
77  Paul-Henri Mathieu      341 
78  Mikhail Kukushkin       330 
79  Dudi Sela               325 
80  Lukasz Kubot            324 

81  Teimuraz Gabashvili     303 
82  Victor Hanescu          288 
83  Grigor Dimitrov         284 
84  Lukas Lacko             282 
85  Adrian Mannarino        279 
86  Kevin Anderson          275 
87  Florent Serra           275 
88  Simon Greul             274 
89  Potito Starace          270 
90  Edouard Roger-Vasselin  269 
91  Frank Dancevic          269 
92  Horacio Zeballos        268 
93  Richard Berankis        266 
94  Marco Chiudinelli       264 
95  Rainer Schuettler       263 
96  Ryan Harrison           262 
97  Frederico Gil           261 
98  Bernard Tomic           260 
99  Nicolas Mahut           259 
100 Tobias Kamke            259 

102 Yen-Hsun Lu             255 
104 Bjorn Phau              248 
106 Chris Guccione          247 
107 Ryan Sweeting           246 
112 Ricardo Mello           240 
114 Ilia Marchenko          236 
116 Matt Ebden              233 
120 Alex Bogomolov          228 
121 Michael Russell         226 
133 Marinko Matosevic       221 
141 Dustin Brown            217 
144 Donald Young            216 
145 Tim Smyczek             215 
147 Somdev Devvarman        215 
156 Rik de Voest            212 
174 Marsel Ilhan            208 
196 Flavio Cipolla          202 
261 Rohan Bopanna           109 
319 Pere Riba                55 
354 Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo    22

Indian Wells Projections

I’ve developed a fairly sophisticated algorithm to predict the outcome of tennis matches. It seeks to remedy some of the flaws in the present ranking system and do a better job of forecasting which players will perform better at certain times, on certain surfaces, against certain opponents.

In the past, I’ve written about the predictiveness of ATP ranking points–which are pretty darn good, for all their flaws. By just about any standard, however, my system is better. It’s not perfect–it’s far, far from it–but it does give you a valid second opinion on a player’s abilities at any given time.

The components

My algorithm does several things that traditional ranking points do not. Here are a few of the components:

Points are awarded based on the quality of opponents, not on the round or tournament. Thus, beating Mikhail Youhzny in the quarterfinals in Moscow is worth the same as the semifinals of Indian Wells. Losing to a low-ranked player counts against you more than losing against Roger Federer.
These points, and everything else, are adjusted for surface. Beating Federer counts for more on hard courts than on clay; beating Juan Carlos Ferrero is the opposite.
The algorithm generates a set of overall rankings, and it also generates two sets of surface-specific rankings, one for clay courts, one for everything else. (There isn’t enough data on indoor hard courts or grass courts to treat them separately from any other type of fast court.) So for Indian Wells, I’m using the hard-court rankings. Of course, this drastically impacts the chances of many players.
The points awarded for any tournament are also based on how recent the event was. Beating Andy Murray last week is more relevant than beating him last year. Thus, Milos Raonic does better in my rankings (24th overall) than in the ATP rankings (37th). Sure, it would help if Raonic had played more ATP-level events last year, but my algorithm recognizes that February results count for more than wins from last June.
My system considers matches from the last two years, not just one year, as the ATP rankings do. This and the ‘recency’ adjustment remedy what I consider to be the most ridiculous part of the ATP ranking system. A player can fall dozens of spots in the rankings simply because a tournament result “falls off.”

So, a match from 51 weeks ago tells us a lot about a player’s current skill level, but a match from 53 weeks ago does not? In my system, both are counted; a match from 51 weeks ago counts for about 55-60% of the value of a match from last week, while a match from a few weeks earlier counts for a little less.
Grand slams count for a bit more, but not a lot more. The main reason for this is that the winner of a five-setter is more likely to the more skilled player than the winner of a three-setter. A couple of bad bounces in a tiebreak can turn a three-setter against you, but it’s awfully hard to win a five-setter with luck.
There is a bit of home court advantage in tennis, though with the increasing use of the challenge system (which limits officiating bias), it seems to be decreasing. It still exists, and it’s considered.
For whatever reason, it appears that qualifiers and wild cards do worse in ATP main draw matches than my system would otherwise expect. So they are penalized a small amount.
Finally, there is a head-to-head component. It turns out that the head-to-head component can’t improve that much on the rankings-based algorithm, but it does have some value. So I do consider the history of each matchup, giving a slight edge to the player who has won more matches in the past. (Depending, of course, on how long ago it was, what surface the matches were on, and so on.)

Whew!

Thanks for reading this far.

As I post this, a few matches have already been played. But these numbers were generated this morning, after the full draw was released. It shows the probability that each player reaches each round of the tournament. I’ll have a little more to say at the bottom.

Player            R64   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Nadal         100% 94.6% 78.3% 56.3% 40.1% 24.1% 13.0% 
(q)De Voest       54%  3.1%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Riba              46%  2.3%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Sweeting       42%  8.4%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Granollers        58% 17.2%  2.0%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(27)Monaco       100% 74.4% 17.7%  7.5%  2.9%  0.8%  0.2% 
(19)Baghdatis    100% 86.1% 52.9% 21.3% 11.3%  4.7%  1.6% 
(q)Devvarman      43%  5.0%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mannarino         57%  8.9%  2.2%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Cipolla        28%  4.0%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Malisse           72% 22.1%  6.6%  1.5%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(15)Tsonga       100% 73.9% 36.7% 12.2%  5.9%  2.0%  0.6% 

(11)Almagro      100% 81.5% 51.0% 22.4%  7.8%  2.7%  0.8% 
(q)Russell        45%  8.1%  2.0%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Anderson          55% 10.4%  3.1%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Istomin           41% 13.1%  4.6%  1.0%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Nieminen          59% 24.4%  9.3%  2.8%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
(23)Montanes     100% 62.5% 30.2% 10.8%  3.1%  0.8%  0.2% 
(28)Simon        100% 73.1% 27.2% 14.5%  4.6%  1.4%  0.4% 
Schuettler        40%  8.3%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Haase             60% 18.7%  4.0%  1.3%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Matosevic      29%  2.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Karlovic          71% 12.7%  5.0%  1.8%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(6)Ferrer        100% 84.6% 61.9% 44.1% 22.2% 10.8%  4.4% 

(4)Soderling     100% 89.0% 71.0% 46.8% 27.3% 15.8%  7.6% 
Phau              37%  3.0%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Berrer            63%  8.0%  3.4%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Smyczek        48% 10.5%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Marchenko         52% 13.4%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(32)Kohlsch.     100% 76.1% 22.0%  7.7%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1% 
(20)Dolgopolov   100% 68.8% 24.4%  8.9%  2.8%  0.9%  0.3% 
Hanescu           39% 10.5%  1.8%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Seppi             61% 20.8%  4.9%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Stepanek          30% 12.1%  6.7%  2.3%  0.8%  0.2%  0.1% 
(PR)Del Potro     70% 46.4% 35.6% 20.8% 11.1%  6.1%  2.9% 
(14)Ljubicic     100% 41.6% 26.5% 10.6%  4.4%  1.7%  0.5% 

(9)Verdasco      100% 86.2% 60.7% 23.2% 10.1%  4.2%  1.3% 
(WC)Berankis      52%  7.4%  2.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Bogomolov      48%  6.3%  1.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Tipsarevic        71% 34.2% 12.2%  3.3%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
Kamke             29%  8.2%  1.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(21)Querrey      100% 57.6% 21.5%  5.8%  1.5%  0.4%  0.1% 
(25)Robredo      100% 70.8% 16.9%  7.6%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1% 
Zverev            62% 20.9%  2.9%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Ebden          38%  8.3%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Young          37%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Starace           63%  6.3%  2.6%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(5)Murray        100% 91.4% 76.3% 57.7% 35.6% 21.5% 11.1% 

(8)Roddick       100% 84.9% 63.0% 43.4% 21.7%  8.7%  3.9% 
(WC)Blake         63% 11.3%  4.5%  1.4%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Guccione       37%  3.8%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Ram-Hidalgo       34%  5.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mello             66% 16.4%  2.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(30)Isner        100% 78.4% 28.1% 12.6%  3.6%  0.8%  0.2% 
(18)Gasquet      100% 73.4% 34.8% 14.2%  4.6%  1.2%  0.3% 
Cuevas            72% 22.8%  6.7%  1.7%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Andujar           28%  3.9%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Benneteau         46% 16.1%  7.1%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
Lopez             54% 18.9%  9.0%  3.1%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0% 
(10)Melzer       100% 65.0% 41.9% 20.4%  8.2%  2.7%  0.9% 

(16)Troicki      100% 82.3% 40.1% 10.5%  4.3%  1.1%  0.3% 
(q)Bopanna        30%  3.1%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Tomic         70% 14.6%  3.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Giraldo           55% 14.6%  6.0%  1.0%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Gim-Traver        45% 10.9%  3.8%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(24)Llodra       100% 74.5% 46.7% 15.8%  7.1%  2.2%  0.7% 
(31)Gulbis       100% 56.7% 12.5%  6.0%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1% 
Hewitt            75% 37.3%  7.5%  3.7%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1% 
Lu                25%  6.0%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mayer             66% 12.7%  7.2%  3.8%  1.6%  0.4%  0.1% 
Golubev           34%  3.7%  1.5%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(3)Djokovic      100% 83.6% 70.8% 57.7% 42.5% 24.8% 15.4% 

(7)Berdych       100% 84.1% 64.8% 33.2% 12.6%  5.6%  2.3% 
Kukushkin         48%  7.6%  2.8%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Kubot             52%  8.3%  3.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
De Bakker         48% 20.6%  5.3%  1.3%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Becker            52% 21.9%  5.9%  1.5%  0.2%  0.1%  0.0% 
(26)Bellucci     100% 57.4% 18.1%  4.9%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
(17)Cilic        100% 81.7% 37.2% 20.7%  6.6%  2.6%  1.0% 
Gabashvili        49%  9.6%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Serra             51%  8.7%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Davydenko         84% 49.6% 32.8% 21.0%  8.7%  4.4%  2.1% 
Fognini           16%  3.5%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(12)Wawrinka     100% 47.0% 26.2% 15.5%  5.2%  2.2%  0.9% 

(13)Fish         100% 64.5% 41.9% 13.0%  6.4%  2.7%  1.1% 
(WC)Raonic        81% 33.0% 17.9%  4.3%  1.7%  0.6%  0.2% 
Ilhan             19%  2.5%  0.6%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Harrison      26%  5.7%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Chardy            74% 32.1% 12.0%  2.4%  0.8%  0.2%  0.1% 
(22)Garcia-Lopez 100% 62.2% 26.6%  5.9%  2.3%  0.8%  0.2% 
(29)Chela        100% 59.2%  7.7%  2.6%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% 
Petzschner        66% 30.5%  3.4%  1.1%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Brown             34% 10.3%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Andreev           41%  3.0%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Nishikori         59%  6.4%  3.7%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(2)Federer       100% 90.6% 83.1% 68.7% 52.4% 36.7% 24.5%

You’ll probably notice right off that Federer and Djokovic have the best chances of winning. Indeed, they are the top two players on hard courts, according to my rankings. Yes, Nadal has won the slams lately, but he has also lost to a few players he shouldn’t have (Baghdatis, Melzer, Garcia-Lopez) in the recent past. I personally wouldn’t put money on Federer over Nadal in the final, but my algorithm disagrees.

A few other players my system likes are Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, and Marcos Baghdatis. It picks out some players for scoring wins over top-ranked players. It likes Del Potro both because of his strong record in the last few weeks and because the algorithm still considers his torrid summer of 2009, leading up to his U.S. Open win.

One more thing, and then I’ll shut up for now. In the first-round matches, there are very few that stray beyond a 70/30 split. Even Tomic-Bopanna is 70/30, and Bopanna barely plays singles. The narrow divides are partly because no top players are involved in the first round, but it also shows you the depth of the men’s game — even someone ranked outside of the top 150, like Flavio Cipolla, has a decent chance of advancing.

Of course, Flavio doesn’t have quite the same odds against Tsonga, and you can tell from Nadal’s second round odds that neither Pere Riba nor Rik de Voest stand much of a chance against him.

Enjoy the tennis … and the numbers.

Tuesday Topspin: Back in the USSR

This is what we in the tennis blogging world call a “slow news day.” Davis Cup is over, and the Indian Wells main draw hasn’t been released. Oh well, we’ll make do.

Star maps: Indian Wells has done a great job ensuring that the game’s young stars are in the main draw, granting wild cards to Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Ryan Harrison, and Richard Berankis. Any tournament that gives more than half of its wild cards to foreign players gets a thumbs up from me.

Missing from the draw, however, is Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian followed the European challenger circuit to Sarajevo, where he will again be the top seed. Also following the circuit is Nicholas Mahut, Dimitrov’s opponent in last week’s final. The more interesting potential opponent for the Bulgarian, though, is in his half of the draw: fourth-seeded Russian Dmitri Tursunov.

Others to watch: Like I said, slow news day, so let’s glance through the futures draws. Bizarrely, Marc Gicquel is playing France F4 in Lille. His stock has fallen in the last couple of years, but one would hope that (a) he’s getting a nice appearance fee, and (b) he wins easily.

In McAllen, Texas, at USA F7, here’s an unlikely pair of wild cards: 16-year-old Thai-Son Kwiatkowski and drug cheat Wayne Odesnik. Odesnik has been on entry lists the last couple of weeks but hasn’t played; I wonder if he decided he wouldn’t play qualifying and has waited for his next wild card. It’s an interesting draw beyond those two, as well. Joining the Texas futures swing are two American 19-year-olds, Jordan Cox and Andrea Collarini.

That Russian Davis Cup team: Without Nikolay Davydenko and Mikhail Youhzny, Russia’s Davis Cup team last weekend was the weakest it has put forth in a long time. While Russia lost to Sweden, Kazakhstan triumphed over the Czechs and moved into the quarterfinals.

Of course, Kazahstan (among many other countries in Europe and Asia) used to be part of the USSR. The Soviets were generally not much of a factor, spending only five years in the World Group. But my oh my, what a team they would have right now.

Of course, the Russian contingent isn’t that bad. You have the Kazakhs. There are two Ukrainians in the top 40. Belarus sports one of the best doubles players in the world in Max Mirnyi. Even Latvia and Lithuania each have a player in the top 100.

Which got me wondering: What would Russian tennis look like if it still spanned the entire USSR? Here are the singles rankings:

13   Mikhail Youzhny         RUS  
23   Alexander Dolgopolov    UKR  
34   Ernests Gulbis          LAT  
38   Sergey Stakhovsky       UKR  
39   Andrei Goloubev         KAZ  
42   Nikolay Davydenko       RUS  
55   Denis Istomin           UZB  
62   Mikhail Kukushkin       KAZ  
74   Richard Berankis        LTU  
77   Teimuraz Gabashvili     RUS  
96   Igor Andreev            RUS  
99   Ilia Marchenko          UKR  
103  Igor Kunitsyn           RUS  
104  Dmitry Tursunov         RUS  
125  Yuri Schukin            KAZ  
144  Alexandre Koudriavtsev  RUS  
153  Konstantin Kravchuk     RUS  
197  Jurgen Zopp             EST  
200  Vladimir Ignatik        BLR

Pretty impressive, huh? With a potential doubles team of Mirnyi/Stakhovsky, you could come with a Davis Cup team on par with anyone except for a healthy Spain or France.

Alas, the Russians will have to settle for watching their former compatriots.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Topspin: Kazakhstan is not weak

(Yes, I know the Seinfeld reference is about the Ukraine. It seemed appropriate nonetheless.)

Sure, Radek Stepanek didn’t play, and Tomas Berdych may not have been 100 percent. But really, did anybody see Kazakhstan advancing to the World Group quarterfinals? Wow.

The hero for the Kazakhs was Andrey Golubev who, astonishingly, defeated Berdych in yesterday’s fourth rubber to even the tie. That set the stage for the underrated Mikhail Kukushkin to clinch the victory by winning his match against Jan Hajek, exhausted from his five-set effort on Friday. Next, the Kazakhs will play in Argentina, which may just be winnable for them, depending on who is healthy enough to represent the Argentine side.

The other drama-filled tie yesterday was in Zagreb, between Croatia and Germany. After Marin Cilic handily won the fourth rubber, both captains went with substitutes, so the tie was decided by Ivo Karlovic and Philipp Petzschner. It’s too bad Ivan Dodig was too worn out to play again; I’m liking this guy more every week, and I suspect he could’ve beaten either Petzchner or Florian Mayer. As it was, Karlovic wasn’t strong enough, and the Germans advance to a tough quarterfinal matchup with France.

Elsewhere: In Cherbourg, Grigor Dimitrov took the final in straight sets against Nicholas Mahut. It must have felt good: In Dimitrov’s last final, he played Mahut and lost in three. In Dallas, Alex Bogomolov Jr. beat Ranier Schuettler for his second challenger-level championship since November.

Rankings update: Since it was a Davis Cup weekend, there’s very little movement at the top of the rankings. Juan Monaco, Golubev, Jeremy Chardy, and Somdev Devvarman all gained a few spots thanks to their wins in live rubbers, while Joachim Johansson lept more than 200 places to 537th.

With his victory in Cherbourg, Dimitrov ascends to 71st, a new career high for the Bulgarian. Bogomolov gains 24 spots to #128, and Andres Molteni, champion in Salinas, breaks into the top 200 for the first time, landing at #185.

Indian Wells: Another day, another withdrawal: It seems like I just mentioned Tommy Haas‘s comeback, to find out that he isn’t playing this week after all.

Looking at the entry lists, what’s fun about the upcoming tournament is that nearly everyone is playing doubles. In addition to the usual pairs, Rafael Nadal is teaming with Marc Lopez, Novak Djokovic with Viktor Troicki, Robin Soderling with Jarkko Nieminen, Andy Murray with brother Jamie, and Tomas Berdych with Janko Tipsarevic. I’m sure we’ll see a few of these teams withdraw, but for now, all that’s missing is Federer/Wawrinka.

Check back later today–I’ve got an interesting new feature I’ll be adding to the site.