Rankings – Page 6 – Heavy Topspin

Hard Court Singles Rankings, 3/21/11

About two weeks ago, I introduced my ranking system. Much of the rationale is explained here. The important thing to keep in mind is that the system is designed to be predictive–that is, it values the things that tend to correctly forecast the outcome of matches.

Since then, I’ve made a few tweaks under the hood. For the most part, the changes don’t affect the rankings, they just adjust the differences between players to better reflect surface-specific skills.

Still, Roger Federer is hanging on at the top, though it’s so close that it should be considered virtually a tie. My algorithm to predict the outcome of individual matches also takes head-to-head results into account, and given Novak Djokovic’s recent dominance, that algorithm now gives Djokovic the slight edge in a battle with Federer.

The real value, here, is a little further down the list, as this system is much better than the ATP rankings at measuring the skill level of players who are scoring big upsets and enjoying recent success. To wit, Ivo Karlovic is up to #33 here, in part thanks to his giant-killing run last week. Also, my system places Ryan Harrison at #71 and Donald Young at #82 for similar reasons.

I intended for this to be a top 100, but #101 is Somdev Devvarman, notable due to his string of upsets, which moved him all the way up from #147.

1   Roger Federer          8191 
2   Novak Djokovic         8076 
3   Andy Murray            4749 
4   Rafael Nadal           4654 
5   Robin Soderling        4205 
6   Juan Martin del Potro  4047 
7   Nikolay Davydenko      2853 
8   David Ferrer           2772 
9   Stanislas Wawrinka     2660 
10  Andy Roddick           2494 
11  Tomas Berdych          2268 
12  Gael Monfils           2088 
13  Marcos Baghdatis       1879 
14  Mardy Fish             1838 
15  Marin Cilic            1666 
16  Fernando Verdasco      1603 
17  Jurgen Melzer          1565 
18  David Nalbandian       1547 
19  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     1475 
20  Ivan Ljubicic          1449 

21  Michael Llodra         1385 
22  Richard Gasquet        1367 
23  Florian Mayer          1335 
24  Milos Raonic           1308 
25  Mikhail Youzhny        1276 
26  Gilles Simon           1235 
27  Nicolas Almagro        1209 
28  Alexander Dolgopolov   1124 
29  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1038 
30  Philipp Kohlschreiber  1030 
31  Viktor Troicki         1020 
32  Juan Monaco            1011 
33  Ivo Karlovic            994 
34  Radek Stepanek          989 
35  Albert Montanes         974 
36  Tommy Robredo           885 
37  Samuel Querrey          840 
38  Lleyton Hewitt          835 
39  John Isner              834 
40  Ernests Gulbis          782 

41  Jeremy Chardy           780 
42  Feliciano Lopez         765 
43  Janko Tipsarevic        728 
44  Julien Benneteau        695 
45  Kei Nishikori           666 
46  Xavier Malisse          634 
47  Jarkko Nieminen         624 
48  Dmitry Tursunov         603 
49  Fernando Gonzalez       597 
50  Juan Carlos Ferrero     596 
51  Thomaz Bellucci         586 
52  Andrei Goloubev         513 
53  Andreas Seppi           484 
54  Benjamin Becker         482 
55  Michael Berrer          465 
56  Thiemo de Bakker        453 
57  Juan Ignacio Chela      450 
58  Olivier Rochus          444 
59  Pablo Cuevas            441 
60  Igor Andreev            430 

61  Fabio Fognini           427 
62  Philipp Petzschner      423 
63  Santiago Giraldo        417 
64  James Blake             416 
65  Sergey Stakhovsky       399 
66  Ivan Dodig              384 
67  Denis Istomin           382 
68  Michael Zverev          369 
69  Robin Haase             364 
70  Arnaud Clement          364 
71  Ryan Harrison           360 
72  Daniel Gimeno           350 
73  Marcel Granollers       346 
74  Leonardo Mayer          343 
75  Robby Ginepri           338 
76  Paul-Henri Mathieu      335 
77  Lukasz Kubot            332 
78  Daniel Brands           330 
79  Alejandro Falla         327 
80  Mikhail Kukushkin       320 

81  Dudi Sela               309 
82  Donald Young            304 
83  Victor Hanescu          296 
84  Teimuraz Gabashvili     295 
85  Grigor Dimitrov         280 
86  Florent Serra           277 
87  Lukas Lacko             276 
88  Horacio Zeballos        276 
89  Ryan Sweeting           273 
90  Adrian Mannarino        272 
91  Yen-Hsun Lu             271 
92  Kevin Anderson          269 
93  Rainer Schuettler       267 
94  Edouard Roger-Vasselin  266 
95  Richard Berankis        266 
96  Bernard Tomic           263 
97  Marco Chiudinelli       261 
98  Nicolas Mahut           261 
99  Simon Greul             259 
100 Frederico Gil           258 
101 Somdev K. Dev Varman    258

Monday Topspin: Djokovic Keeps Winning

Another day at the office: Novak Djokovic is still undefeated in 2011. For the second time, he earned a championship the hard way, beating Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the same tournament. He wins the Indian Wells crown for the second time as well, and his victory moves him into the #2 spot in the ATP rankings.

Nadal may not be playing his best tennis, but the first set, at least, was absolutely gripping. Both players are so athletic and skilled on the defense that many rallies made them look like counterpunchers, except both guys were hitting the ball too hard for that. In the first set and the beginning of the second, Djokovic appeared to suffer the same lapse that lost him a set against Federer. But as in the semifinal, he came back in plenty of time.

It was Nadal whose racquet ultimately let him down. The biggest difference between the Rafa of last September and the Rafa of right now is his serve. In the sets he lost, the first serve percentage was dreadful: 25% in the second and 45% in the third. Even when it was going in, it was hardly a weapon. Nadal’s return game alone is good enough to beat most people, but not Djokovic, certainly not right now.

In Miami, Djokovic can pad his lead over Federer, but #2 remains in play. Last year, Djokovic lost in the 2nd round to Olivier Rochus, while Federer fell in the 4th to Tomas Berdych. To take back #2, Federer needs to win the tournament, and even then, he’ll need Novak to lose in the semis or earlier.

Federer at #3 makes every tournament draw a little more interesting: There’s the possibility of a Nadal-Federer semifinal. If not, Federer could line up to face Djokovic is the semi. The latter is a familiar sight, and it’s still an exciting one.

New rankings: With Indian Wells on the board along with two weeks worth of challengers, there is an enormous amount of movement. The biggest winner is Djokovic, moving one spot closer to #1. Both Juan Martin del Potro and Ivo Karlovic made big strides in their comebacks: Delpo jumped 39 spots to #51, and Karlovic is up 86 places to 153.

Four players reached a new career high thanks to their performances in California: Milos Raonic gained three more places to #34, Somdev Devvarman goes up to #73, Ryan Sweeting breaks into the top 100 at #91, and Ryan Harrison advances 22 spots to #130.

Several players made triple-digit jumps as well. Cedrik-Marcel Stebe moves into the top 250, landing at #234 after challenger semifinal appearances in two consecutive weeks. Amer Delic, a former top-60 player returning from injury, gains 141 places to #303 after his championship in Sarajevo. Rohan Bopanna, on the strength of qualifying for Indian Wells, jumps 119 spots to #510, and Wayne Odesnik, winner at USA F7 two weeks ago, lands at #538, an 135-place improvement.

Challenger results: Yesterday I reported on the final in Guangzhou, which leaves us four more challengers to touch on. In Le Gosier, Olivier Rochus triumphed over countryman Stephane Robert. It’s a bigger accomplishment than the usual victory at that level: Le Gosier is at one of the highest rungs of prize money ($100,000), and the draw was full of top-100 players who made early exits from Indian Wells.

In fact, while Rochus won the title and advanced back into the top 100, Robert could be said to have had the better week. En route to the final, he defeated Dustin Brown, Pablo Andujar, Marsel Ilhan, and top seed Jarkko Nieminen. As if that wasn’t enough, he teamed with Riccardo Ghedin to win the doubles–over Rochus and Arnaud Clement.

At an indoor tourney in Rimouski, Canada, the field wasn’t nearly as strong. The title match was plenty exciting, as Fritz Wolmarans defeated Bobby Reynolds in a third-set tiebreak.

The San Jose challenger, in Costa Rica, attracted plenty of South American talent, despite its hard courts. Returning to the winner’s circle was Ecuador’s Giovanni Lapentti, who won in straight sets over Igor Kunitsyn.

Finally, a clay court challenger took place in Rabat, where the Czech Ivo Minar won the title, getting past Peter Luczak in the final. The surprise performance of the week belongs to the unheralded Tunisian Malek Jaziri, who entered on a wild card. His second and third round opponents were a wild card and a qualifier, respectively, but to get there, he had to defeat fourth-seed Jaroslav Pospisil in his opening match.

Tomorrow we’ll take a look at the fields in the coming week. See you then!

Hard-Court Singles Rankings

If you’ve found your way here from the Wall Street Journal, welcome! If you don’t know what I’m talking about, go read what Carl Bialik has to say in today’s paper, and in an online follow-up. I’ve written at length about my rankings and prediction system and published full odds for Indian Wells here.

As you may have read in the Wall Street Journal, my ranking system rates Federer number one. The difference between Fed and Nadal is even more striking if we use my hard-court-specific rankings. However, in the hard-court-specific rankings, Djokovic closes the gap quite a bit.

Before you email me to tell me what an idiot I am for publishing something so blatantly wrong, please read my description of what the system does.

The goal of these rankings isn’t to say who is the greatest of all time, or to say that any player here is guaranteed to beat anyone below him. Instead, they are the result of an algorithm that is better than anything else I’ve seen at predicting the outcome of tennis matches.

Here are the current top 100 hard-court players, along with the hard-court rankings of several other players who are in the Indian Wells main draw:

1   Roger Federer          8579 
2   Novak Djokovic         6853 
3   Andy Murray            5013 
4   Rafael Nadal           4892 
5   Robin Soderling        4363 
6   Juan Martin del Potro  3624 
7   Nikolay Davydenko      3118 
8   David Ferrer           2913 
9   Andy Roddick           2671 
10  Tomas Berdych          2284 
11  Gael Monfils           2226 
12  Stanislas Wawrinka     2094 
13  Marcos Baghdatis       2062 
14  David Nalbandian       1967 
15  Mardy Fish             1961 
16  Marin Cilic            1779 
17  Fernando Verdasco      1709 
18  Jurgen Melzer          1615 
19  Ivan Ljubicic          1602 
20  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     1565 

21  Michael Llodra         1475 
22  Mikhail Youzhny        1317 
23  Gilles Simon           1314 
24  Florian Mayer          1312 
25  Nicolas Almagro        1305 
26  Milos Raonic           1231 
27  Alexander Dolgopolov   1223 
28  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1109 
29  Juan Monaco            1102 
30  Richard Gasquet        1091 
31  Radek Stepanek         1044 
32  Viktor Troicki         1021 
33  John Isner              901 
34  Lleyton Hewitt          883 
35  Tommy Robredo           867 
36  Albert Montanes         841 
37  Jeremy Chardy           840 
38  Ernests Gulbis          820 
39  Philipp Kohlschreiber   796 
40  Feliciano Lopez         787 

41  Samuel Querrey          773 
42  Janko Tipsarevic        734 
43  Fernando Gonzalez       711 
44  Julien Benneteau        695 
45  Kei Nishikori           686 
46  Jarkko Nieminen         638 
47  Juan Carlos Ferrero     635 
48  Dmitry Tursunov         633 
49  Xavier Malisse          588 
50  Thomaz Bellucci         578 
51  Ivo Karlovic            559 
52  Andreas Seppi           507 
53  Andrei Goloubev         488 
54  Benjamin Becker         487 
55  Michael Berrer          466 
56  Thiemo de Bakker        457 
57  Igor Andreev            455 
58  Olivier Rochus          449 
59  Philipp Petzschner      447 
60  Juan Ignacio Chela      434 

61  Fabio Fognini           434 
62  James Blake             432 
63  Pablo Cuevas            426 
64  Santiago Giraldo        413 
65  Sergey Stakhovsky       402 
66  Denis Istomin           400 
67  Ivan Dodig              389 
68  Arnaud Clement          375 
69  Michael Zverev          367 
70  Robin Haase             367 
71  Leonardo Mayer          352 
72  Robby Ginepri           351 
73  Marcel Granollers       350 
74  Daniel Brands           345 
75  Alejandro Falla         341 
76  Daniel Gimeno           341 
77  Paul-Henri Mathieu      341 
78  Mikhail Kukushkin       330 
79  Dudi Sela               325 
80  Lukasz Kubot            324 

81  Teimuraz Gabashvili     303 
82  Victor Hanescu          288 
83  Grigor Dimitrov         284 
84  Lukas Lacko             282 
85  Adrian Mannarino        279 
86  Kevin Anderson          275 
87  Florent Serra           275 
88  Simon Greul             274 
89  Potito Starace          270 
90  Edouard Roger-Vasselin  269 
91  Frank Dancevic          269 
92  Horacio Zeballos        268 
93  Richard Berankis        266 
94  Marco Chiudinelli       264 
95  Rainer Schuettler       263 
96  Ryan Harrison           262 
97  Frederico Gil           261 
98  Bernard Tomic           260 
99  Nicolas Mahut           259 
100 Tobias Kamke            259 

102 Yen-Hsun Lu             255 
104 Bjorn Phau              248 
106 Chris Guccione          247 
107 Ryan Sweeting           246 
112 Ricardo Mello           240 
114 Ilia Marchenko          236 
116 Matt Ebden              233 
120 Alex Bogomolov          228 
121 Michael Russell         226 
133 Marinko Matosevic       221 
141 Dustin Brown            217 
144 Donald Young            216 
145 Tim Smyczek             215 
147 Somdev Devvarman        215 
156 Rik de Voest            212 
174 Marsel Ilhan            208 
196 Flavio Cipolla          202 
261 Rohan Bopanna           109 
319 Pere Riba                55 
354 Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo    22

Indian Wells Projections

I’ve developed a fairly sophisticated algorithm to predict the outcome of tennis matches. It seeks to remedy some of the flaws in the present ranking system and do a better job of forecasting which players will perform better at certain times, on certain surfaces, against certain opponents.

In the past, I’ve written about the predictiveness of ATP ranking points–which are pretty darn good, for all their flaws. By just about any standard, however, my system is better. It’s not perfect–it’s far, far from it–but it does give you a valid second opinion on a player’s abilities at any given time.

The components

My algorithm does several things that traditional ranking points do not. Here are a few of the components:

Points are awarded based on the quality of opponents, not on the round or tournament. Thus, beating Mikhail Youhzny in the quarterfinals in Moscow is worth the same as the semifinals of Indian Wells. Losing to a low-ranked player counts against you more than losing against Roger Federer.
These points, and everything else, are adjusted for surface. Beating Federer counts for more on hard courts than on clay; beating Juan Carlos Ferrero is the opposite.
The algorithm generates a set of overall rankings, and it also generates two sets of surface-specific rankings, one for clay courts, one for everything else. (There isn’t enough data on indoor hard courts or grass courts to treat them separately from any other type of fast court.) So for Indian Wells, I’m using the hard-court rankings. Of course, this drastically impacts the chances of many players.
The points awarded for any tournament are also based on how recent the event was. Beating Andy Murray last week is more relevant than beating him last year. Thus, Milos Raonic does better in my rankings (24th overall) than in the ATP rankings (37th). Sure, it would help if Raonic had played more ATP-level events last year, but my algorithm recognizes that February results count for more than wins from last June.
My system considers matches from the last two years, not just one year, as the ATP rankings do. This and the ‘recency’ adjustment remedy what I consider to be the most ridiculous part of the ATP ranking system. A player can fall dozens of spots in the rankings simply because a tournament result “falls off.”

So, a match from 51 weeks ago tells us a lot about a player’s current skill level, but a match from 53 weeks ago does not? In my system, both are counted; a match from 51 weeks ago counts for about 55-60% of the value of a match from last week, while a match from a few weeks earlier counts for a little less.
Grand slams count for a bit more, but not a lot more. The main reason for this is that the winner of a five-setter is more likely to the more skilled player than the winner of a three-setter. A couple of bad bounces in a tiebreak can turn a three-setter against you, but it’s awfully hard to win a five-setter with luck.
There is a bit of home court advantage in tennis, though with the increasing use of the challenge system (which limits officiating bias), it seems to be decreasing. It still exists, and it’s considered.
For whatever reason, it appears that qualifiers and wild cards do worse in ATP main draw matches than my system would otherwise expect. So they are penalized a small amount.
Finally, there is a head-to-head component. It turns out that the head-to-head component can’t improve that much on the rankings-based algorithm, but it does have some value. So I do consider the history of each matchup, giving a slight edge to the player who has won more matches in the past. (Depending, of course, on how long ago it was, what surface the matches were on, and so on.)

Whew!

Thanks for reading this far.

As I post this, a few matches have already been played. But these numbers were generated this morning, after the full draw was released. It shows the probability that each player reaches each round of the tournament. I’ll have a little more to say at the bottom.

Player            R64   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Nadal         100% 94.6% 78.3% 56.3% 40.1% 24.1% 13.0% 
(q)De Voest       54%  3.1%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Riba              46%  2.3%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Sweeting       42%  8.4%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Granollers        58% 17.2%  2.0%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(27)Monaco       100% 74.4% 17.7%  7.5%  2.9%  0.8%  0.2% 
(19)Baghdatis    100% 86.1% 52.9% 21.3% 11.3%  4.7%  1.6% 
(q)Devvarman      43%  5.0%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mannarino         57%  8.9%  2.2%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Cipolla        28%  4.0%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Malisse           72% 22.1%  6.6%  1.5%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(15)Tsonga       100% 73.9% 36.7% 12.2%  5.9%  2.0%  0.6% 

(11)Almagro      100% 81.5% 51.0% 22.4%  7.8%  2.7%  0.8% 
(q)Russell        45%  8.1%  2.0%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Anderson          55% 10.4%  3.1%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Istomin           41% 13.1%  4.6%  1.0%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Nieminen          59% 24.4%  9.3%  2.8%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
(23)Montanes     100% 62.5% 30.2% 10.8%  3.1%  0.8%  0.2% 
(28)Simon        100% 73.1% 27.2% 14.5%  4.6%  1.4%  0.4% 
Schuettler        40%  8.3%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Haase             60% 18.7%  4.0%  1.3%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Matosevic      29%  2.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Karlovic          71% 12.7%  5.0%  1.8%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(6)Ferrer        100% 84.6% 61.9% 44.1% 22.2% 10.8%  4.4% 

(4)Soderling     100% 89.0% 71.0% 46.8% 27.3% 15.8%  7.6% 
Phau              37%  3.0%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Berrer            63%  8.0%  3.4%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Smyczek        48% 10.5%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Marchenko         52% 13.4%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(32)Kohlsch.     100% 76.1% 22.0%  7.7%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1% 
(20)Dolgopolov   100% 68.8% 24.4%  8.9%  2.8%  0.9%  0.3% 
Hanescu           39% 10.5%  1.8%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Seppi             61% 20.8%  4.9%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Stepanek          30% 12.1%  6.7%  2.3%  0.8%  0.2%  0.1% 
(PR)Del Potro     70% 46.4% 35.6% 20.8% 11.1%  6.1%  2.9% 
(14)Ljubicic     100% 41.6% 26.5% 10.6%  4.4%  1.7%  0.5% 

(9)Verdasco      100% 86.2% 60.7% 23.2% 10.1%  4.2%  1.3% 
(WC)Berankis      52%  7.4%  2.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Bogomolov      48%  6.3%  1.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Tipsarevic        71% 34.2% 12.2%  3.3%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
Kamke             29%  8.2%  1.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(21)Querrey      100% 57.6% 21.5%  5.8%  1.5%  0.4%  0.1% 
(25)Robredo      100% 70.8% 16.9%  7.6%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1% 
Zverev            62% 20.9%  2.9%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Ebden          38%  8.3%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Young          37%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Starace           63%  6.3%  2.6%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(5)Murray        100% 91.4% 76.3% 57.7% 35.6% 21.5% 11.1% 

(8)Roddick       100% 84.9% 63.0% 43.4% 21.7%  8.7%  3.9% 
(WC)Blake         63% 11.3%  4.5%  1.4%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Guccione       37%  3.8%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Ram-Hidalgo       34%  5.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mello             66% 16.4%  2.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(30)Isner        100% 78.4% 28.1% 12.6%  3.6%  0.8%  0.2% 
(18)Gasquet      100% 73.4% 34.8% 14.2%  4.6%  1.2%  0.3% 
Cuevas            72% 22.8%  6.7%  1.7%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Andujar           28%  3.9%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Benneteau         46% 16.1%  7.1%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
Lopez             54% 18.9%  9.0%  3.1%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0% 
(10)Melzer       100% 65.0% 41.9% 20.4%  8.2%  2.7%  0.9% 

(16)Troicki      100% 82.3% 40.1% 10.5%  4.3%  1.1%  0.3% 
(q)Bopanna        30%  3.1%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Tomic         70% 14.6%  3.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Giraldo           55% 14.6%  6.0%  1.0%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Gim-Traver        45% 10.9%  3.8%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(24)Llodra       100% 74.5% 46.7% 15.8%  7.1%  2.2%  0.7% 
(31)Gulbis       100% 56.7% 12.5%  6.0%  2.3%  0.6%  0.1% 
Hewitt            75% 37.3%  7.5%  3.7%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1% 
Lu                25%  6.0%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mayer             66% 12.7%  7.2%  3.8%  1.6%  0.4%  0.1% 
Golubev           34%  3.7%  1.5%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(3)Djokovic      100% 83.6% 70.8% 57.7% 42.5% 24.8% 15.4% 

(7)Berdych       100% 84.1% 64.8% 33.2% 12.6%  5.6%  2.3% 
Kukushkin         48%  7.6%  2.8%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Kubot             52%  8.3%  3.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
De Bakker         48% 20.6%  5.3%  1.3%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Becker            52% 21.9%  5.9%  1.5%  0.2%  0.1%  0.0% 
(26)Bellucci     100% 57.4% 18.1%  4.9%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
(17)Cilic        100% 81.7% 37.2% 20.7%  6.6%  2.6%  1.0% 
Gabashvili        49%  9.6%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Serra             51%  8.7%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Davydenko         84% 49.6% 32.8% 21.0%  8.7%  4.4%  2.1% 
Fognini           16%  3.5%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(12)Wawrinka     100% 47.0% 26.2% 15.5%  5.2%  2.2%  0.9% 

(13)Fish         100% 64.5% 41.9% 13.0%  6.4%  2.7%  1.1% 
(WC)Raonic        81% 33.0% 17.9%  4.3%  1.7%  0.6%  0.2% 
Ilhan             19%  2.5%  0.6%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Harrison      26%  5.7%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Chardy            74% 32.1% 12.0%  2.4%  0.8%  0.2%  0.1% 
(22)Garcia-Lopez 100% 62.2% 26.6%  5.9%  2.3%  0.8%  0.2% 
(29)Chela        100% 59.2%  7.7%  2.6%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% 
Petzschner        66% 30.5%  3.4%  1.1%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Brown             34% 10.3%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Andreev           41%  3.0%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Nishikori         59%  6.4%  3.7%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0% 
(2)Federer       100% 90.6% 83.1% 68.7% 52.4% 36.7% 24.5%

You’ll probably notice right off that Federer and Djokovic have the best chances of winning. Indeed, they are the top two players on hard courts, according to my rankings. Yes, Nadal has won the slams lately, but he has also lost to a few players he shouldn’t have (Baghdatis, Melzer, Garcia-Lopez) in the recent past. I personally wouldn’t put money on Federer over Nadal in the final, but my algorithm disagrees.

A few other players my system likes are Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, and Marcos Baghdatis. It picks out some players for scoring wins over top-ranked players. It likes Del Potro both because of his strong record in the last few weeks and because the algorithm still considers his torrid summer of 2009, leading up to his U.S. Open win.

One more thing, and then I’ll shut up for now. In the first-round matches, there are very few that stray beyond a 70/30 split. Even Tomic-Bopanna is 70/30, and Bopanna barely plays singles. The narrow divides are partly because no top players are involved in the first round, but it also shows you the depth of the men’s game — even someone ranked outside of the top 150, like Flavio Cipolla, has a decent chance of advancing.

Of course, Flavio doesn’t have quite the same odds against Tsonga, and you can tell from Nadal’s second round odds that neither Pere Riba nor Rik de Voest stand much of a chance against him.

Enjoy the tennis … and the numbers.

Tuesday Topspin: Back in the USSR

This is what we in the tennis blogging world call a “slow news day.” Davis Cup is over, and the Indian Wells main draw hasn’t been released. Oh well, we’ll make do.

Star maps: Indian Wells has done a great job ensuring that the game’s young stars are in the main draw, granting wild cards to Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Ryan Harrison, and Richard Berankis. Any tournament that gives more than half of its wild cards to foreign players gets a thumbs up from me.

Missing from the draw, however, is Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian followed the European challenger circuit to Sarajevo, where he will again be the top seed. Also following the circuit is Nicholas Mahut, Dimitrov’s opponent in last week’s final. The more interesting potential opponent for the Bulgarian, though, is in his half of the draw: fourth-seeded Russian Dmitri Tursunov.

Others to watch: Like I said, slow news day, so let’s glance through the futures draws. Bizarrely, Marc Gicquel is playing France F4 in Lille. His stock has fallen in the last couple of years, but one would hope that (a) he’s getting a nice appearance fee, and (b) he wins easily.

In McAllen, Texas, at USA F7, here’s an unlikely pair of wild cards: 16-year-old Thai-Son Kwiatkowski and drug cheat Wayne Odesnik. Odesnik has been on entry lists the last couple of weeks but hasn’t played; I wonder if he decided he wouldn’t play qualifying and has waited for his next wild card. It’s an interesting draw beyond those two, as well. Joining the Texas futures swing are two American 19-year-olds, Jordan Cox and Andrea Collarini.

That Russian Davis Cup team: Without Nikolay Davydenko and Mikhail Youhzny, Russia’s Davis Cup team last weekend was the weakest it has put forth in a long time. While Russia lost to Sweden, Kazakhstan triumphed over the Czechs and moved into the quarterfinals.

Of course, Kazahstan (among many other countries in Europe and Asia) used to be part of the USSR. The Soviets were generally not much of a factor, spending only five years in the World Group. But my oh my, what a team they would have right now.

Of course, the Russian contingent isn’t that bad. You have the Kazakhs. There are two Ukrainians in the top 40. Belarus sports one of the best doubles players in the world in Max Mirnyi. Even Latvia and Lithuania each have a player in the top 100.

Which got me wondering: What would Russian tennis look like if it still spanned the entire USSR? Here are the singles rankings:

13   Mikhail Youzhny         RUS  
23   Alexander Dolgopolov    UKR  
34   Ernests Gulbis          LAT  
38   Sergey Stakhovsky       UKR  
39   Andrei Goloubev         KAZ  
42   Nikolay Davydenko       RUS  
55   Denis Istomin           UZB  
62   Mikhail Kukushkin       KAZ  
74   Richard Berankis        LTU  
77   Teimuraz Gabashvili     RUS  
96   Igor Andreev            RUS  
99   Ilia Marchenko          UKR  
103  Igor Kunitsyn           RUS  
104  Dmitry Tursunov         RUS  
125  Yuri Schukin            KAZ  
144  Alexandre Koudriavtsev  RUS  
153  Konstantin Kravchuk     RUS  
197  Jurgen Zopp             EST  
200  Vladimir Ignatik        BLR

Pretty impressive, huh? With a potential doubles team of Mirnyi/Stakhovsky, you could come with a Davis Cup team on par with anyone except for a healthy Spain or France.

Alas, the Russians will have to settle for watching their former compatriots.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Topspin: Kazakhstan is not weak

(Yes, I know the Seinfeld reference is about the Ukraine. It seemed appropriate nonetheless.)

Sure, Radek Stepanek didn’t play, and Tomas Berdych may not have been 100 percent. But really, did anybody see Kazakhstan advancing to the World Group quarterfinals? Wow.

The hero for the Kazakhs was Andrey Golubev who, astonishingly, defeated Berdych in yesterday’s fourth rubber to even the tie. That set the stage for the underrated Mikhail Kukushkin to clinch the victory by winning his match against Jan Hajek, exhausted from his five-set effort on Friday. Next, the Kazakhs will play in Argentina, which may just be winnable for them, depending on who is healthy enough to represent the Argentine side.

The other drama-filled tie yesterday was in Zagreb, between Croatia and Germany. After Marin Cilic handily won the fourth rubber, both captains went with substitutes, so the tie was decided by Ivo Karlovic and Philipp Petzschner. It’s too bad Ivan Dodig was too worn out to play again; I’m liking this guy more every week, and I suspect he could’ve beaten either Petzchner or Florian Mayer. As it was, Karlovic wasn’t strong enough, and the Germans advance to a tough quarterfinal matchup with France.

Elsewhere: In Cherbourg, Grigor Dimitrov took the final in straight sets against Nicholas Mahut. It must have felt good: In Dimitrov’s last final, he played Mahut and lost in three. In Dallas, Alex Bogomolov Jr. beat Ranier Schuettler for his second challenger-level championship since November.

Rankings update: Since it was a Davis Cup weekend, there’s very little movement at the top of the rankings. Juan Monaco, Golubev, Jeremy Chardy, and Somdev Devvarman all gained a few spots thanks to their wins in live rubbers, while Joachim Johansson lept more than 200 places to 537th.

With his victory in Cherbourg, Dimitrov ascends to 71st, a new career high for the Bulgarian. Bogomolov gains 24 spots to #128, and Andres Molteni, champion in Salinas, breaks into the top 200 for the first time, landing at #185.

Indian Wells: Another day, another withdrawal: It seems like I just mentioned Tommy Haas‘s comeback, to find out that he isn’t playing this week after all.

Looking at the entry lists, what’s fun about the upcoming tournament is that nearly everyone is playing doubles. In addition to the usual pairs, Rafael Nadal is teaming with Marc Lopez, Novak Djokovic with Viktor Troicki, Robin Soderling with Jarkko Nieminen, Andy Murray with brother Jamie, and Tomas Berdych with Janko Tipsarevic. I’m sure we’ll see a few of these teams withdraw, but for now, all that’s missing is Federer/Wawrinka.

Check back later today–I’ve got an interesting new feature I’ll be adding to the site.

Monday Topspin: A Title for Del Potro

Long-awaited return: Juan Martin Del Potro won his first title since the 2009 U.S. Open, defeating Janko Tipsarevic in straight sets in the final at Delray Beach. The 6-4 6-4 result isn’t surprising, but it is gratifying to see Del Potro continue his ascent back to the top level of the game.

It was a tighter match than I expected. Tipsarevic rushed out to a 4-1 lead, but Del Potro reeled off the next five games to win the set. The Serbian had more success with his first serve, while Delpo won an impressive 63% of his second serve points. The Argentine also fought off 10 of 11 break points–impressive enough, but if Tipsarevic hadn’t been playing well, he wouldn’t have had to work so hard.

The tournament win rockets Del Potro up the rankings–he now sits at 89th, 77 spots up from last week. Of course, few rankings are less meaningful at this point than his. He’ll get a wild card into any tournament he wants, at least for the next few months, and it’s just a matter of time before he works himself back into the top 20. If not higher.

Other rankings movement: Other big movers this Monday are Richard Gasquet and Thomaz Bellucci, both of whom lost in semifinals last week. They each gain 7 spots: Gasquet to 21, Bellucci to 29.

Evgeny Donskoy, who I’ve been writing about for the last few days, jumped to 200th in the world with his win in Casablance. Belgian Ruben Bemelmans, who won in Wolfsburg, gains 36 spots to #144.

From the challengers, the biggest gainer is someone who didn’t make a final. That’s Stefan Seifert, a 25-year-old German who came into the tournament ranked outside of the top 1,000. He was wild-carded into qualifying and ultimately lost a three-setter to Bemelmans in the semis of the main draw. He ascends to #591. Best of all, his semifinal performance earned his entry to the main draw in Cherbourg, where he’ll face Arnaud Clement in the first round.

Davis Cup this week: Some first-round matches in the World Group are shaping up to be more unpredictable than usual. The Russians and Czechs are limited by injuries, while the U.S. must compete on clay, without last year’s hero Mardy Fish. Except for India-Serbia and Belgium-Spain, every tie is within reach of both countries.

I’ll preview some of the matchups in more detail starting tomorrow.

At the Challengers: With no ATP events this week, we have to look to the minor leagues for tournament action. Fortunately, there are three such tourneys starting today.

Of the three, Dallas probably has the strongest field. Among the seeds is the usual mix of veteran Americans, such as Robert Kendrick and Michael Russell. What makes the event interesting is the smattering of young players. Ryan Harrison is in the mix, and wild cards were awarded to Denis Kudla, Jack Sock, and Bernard Tomic.

Most of the Europeans, including a vast array of Frenchmen, are playing in Cherbourg. Headlined by Grigor Dimitrov, the seeds include Nicolas Mahut, Clement, and Benoit Paire.

Finally, there’s clay court action in Salinas, with a draw including two of my favorites, Horacio Zeballos and Federico Del Bonis. Plenty of tennis to follow between now and the weekend Davis Cup action.

See you tomorrow!

Thursday Topspin: Challenges and 21-year-olds

Unusual challenge: In his match yesterday against Marcel Granollers, Roger Federer used a challenge on his own first serve–nothing unusual there. But in this case, the original call had been “in!” Fed thought it was out and stopped playing the point accordingly.

He challenged, and he was right. On his second delivery, he ended up losing the point anyway.

More Americans out: I mentioned yesterday that the way things have turned out, it hasn’t been a promoter’s dream in Delray Beach. Andy Roddick withdrew, John Isner lost in the first round, and yesterday, both Sam Querrey and James Blake were defeated. Blake, at least, fell to the popular Kei Nishikori, arguably the best young player not named Milos.

In fact, I was playing with rankings last night, and came up with something interesting. Of players who have not yet reached their 22nd birthday, this is the top 10 in the world:

37   Milos Raonic        CAN  12/27/90  
66   Kei Nishikori       JPN  12/29/89  
74   Richard Berankis    LTU   6/21/90  
81   Grigor Dimitrov     BUL   5/16/91  
120  Benoit Paire        FRA    5/8/89  
138  Donald Young        USA   7/23/89  
143  Federico del Bonis  ARG   10/5/90  
148  Jerzy Janowicz      POL  11/13/90  
150  Ryan Harrison       USA    5/7/92  
160  Thomas Schoorel     NED    4/8/89

That’s pretty much a “who’s who” of up-and-coming young stars. What it highlights for me is just how young some of these guys still are. Sure, we all know that Raonic and Dimitrov are the wave of the future, but we’ve been following Nishikori for years. He’s still this young, and if he can stay injury-free, he has a lot of time to climb to the top.

It’s even more surprising to see Donald Young here. He’s been around forever, but he doesn’t turn 22 until July. Put that in perspective: Had he gone to college and stayed for four years, he’d be in his junior or senior year right now, probably leading Georgia to the national title.

Seedless: The top-ranked players are having a tough time in Wolfsburg this week. In the first round alone, the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd seeds feel. 5th-seeded Steve Darcis lost in the second round, leaving HT.com favorite Jesse Huta Galung as the presumptive favorite.

Yesterday: The biggest upset of the day was Ryan Sweeting‘s victory over Querrey. In a minor coup, Sergey Stakhovsky defeated Ernests Gulbis in Dubai; for his efforts, he gets to face Federer in a few hours. In Acupulco, Stanislas Wawrinka had to work hard, but he eventually got past Fabio Fognini 7-5 in the third.

Today: We’re mostly in quarterfinals now, so things are starting to get interesting. After the Fed-Stakhovsky match, Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon duke it out for a spot in the semis. I’ll be watching.

In Mexico, Wawrinka next has to face Alexander Dolgopolov, the most compelling matchup of the day in that tournament. And in Delray, they are finishing up the second round. Mardy Fish has what should be an easy match against Ricardo Mello, while Juan Martin Del Potro will be challenged by Teymuraz Gabashvili.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Morning: Roddick, Raonic, Rankings

Raonic and Roddick: The big story from the weekend is, once again, Milos Raonic. He fought Andy Roddick to a third set in the Memphis final, before falling to this highlight reel shot. While he didn’t match his result from San Jose, his run in Memphis was more impressive, as he beat Fernando Verdasco (again), Radek Stepanek, and Mardy Fish to get as far as he did.

Raonic has climbed all the way to 37 in the ATP rankings, guaranteeing him entry to just about every tournament for the rest of the year. This week, he’s one of the few players jumping to Acupulco, where he’ll meet Carlos Berlocq in the first round and face a possible second-round matchup with Alexander Dolgopolov.

Given Milos’s extreme serve-oriented game, it’s tough to imagine him having much success on clay–at least right now. Indeed, he only played two matches on clay in all of 2010, and those were Davis Cup against Colombia. (He lost both.) You have to go back to 2009 to find some tournament results on clay, and let’s just say those aren’t pretty.

Elsewhere: In other finals yesterday, Robin Soderling beat Marin Cilic, and Nicholas Almagro beat Juan Ignacio Chela. Both men won their second consecutive tournament. Raonic ensured that the US circuit has gotten the most attention, but the quality of play in Europe and South America has probably been higher. Marseilles was only an ATP 250, but four of the top 11 players, plus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, were in the draw.

Wozniacki #1: Caroline Wozniacki won in Dubai, giving her the #1 spot in the WTA rankings. That sparked a lengthy back-and-forth at Tennis.com which reveals one problem with any ranking system: It’s not at all clear what it’s supposed to accomplish. It is supposed to be fair, whatever that means? Should it work like a club ladder? Which sorts of players should it allow into tournaments?

These are all tough questions, and the presence of Kim Clijsters and the Williams sisters–extremely talented players who are not #1 but could win any tournament they enter–makes it all the more complicated on the women’s side.

I’ve tinkered a fair bit with alternative methods of ranking players, and a frequent surprise is that the rankings are actually pretty good at predicting who will win any given match. There are various ways to make them a little better, but if a primary goal of the rankings is to present an understandable system to the fans, nothing I’ve devised constitutes an improvement.

This week: The men are playing in Acupulco, Delray Beach, and Dubai. The lineups in Acupulco and Delray Beach look familiar, since they aren’t that different from Buenos Aires and Memphis, respectively.

Dubai, though, looks like they spent some serious money on appearance fees, with both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on board. It’s too bad Soderling is taking the week off; it would be nice to see him in his current form against one or both of those guys.

Most of the top women are in Doha, including Wozniacki, while Acupulco is hosting a WTA event as well.

Check back tomorrow for updates on these tournaments, and more.