Category: Rankings

Rik De Voest, Man on the Cusp

You don’t have to read much of this site to know that I am particularly interested in the second tier of pros.  Some of that is due to spending countless hours at the U.S. Open qualifying tournament; the rest may be attributable to a general tendency to root for the underdog.  So, I tend to be as familiar with guys in the 140s of the rankings as I am with the men in the 40s.

One of those men is South African Rik De Voest.  If you’ve followed the ATP for long, you’ve doubtless seen his name.  He’s a lock for a wild card at the Johannesburg event, he plays many events on the U.S. challenger circuits, and he occasionally qualifies for other top-level tourneys.  He’s a strong all-around player, though perhaps mentally weak–I’ve seen him play a handful of times, and while he’s rarely blown out, he’s prone to giving up the lead.

The impetus for this mini-post is my discovery that Rik De Voest has never cracked the singles top 100.  He broke into the top 200 almost nine years ago, has not fallen out of the top 300 in that time, and reached a peak of 110 in 2006.  He turned 31 last month, so while he currently sits at 130, moving into double-digits gets more difficult every day.

I suspect that De Voest’s record as a sub-top-100 player is very uncommon.  Each year, many players reach the top 100 with nothing more than a handful of solid showings at challenger events–two of the many current players to fit that mold are Steve Darcis (#95) and Matthias Bachinger (#93).  While the top 100 may be a mental hurdle, the difference between 110 (De Voest’s peak) and 99 is almost meaningless.  In the rankings right now, it’s 17 points–less than the difference between winning and losing in the quarterfinals of many challengers.

Right now, about 80 points stand between the South African and the top 100.  That’s a taller order, but still an achievable one for a player of De Voest’s caliber over the course of a few months.  Depending on which statistical oddity you prefer, you may or may not want to root for him.  If he reaches the top 100, he’ll be one of the oldest players ever to do so.  If he doesn’t, he may well end up with the record for most weeks inside the top 200 (or 150, or 250, or 300) without ascending to the slightly-more-rarefied first page of the ATP singles rankings.

Bernard Tomic and the ATP Top 100: In Perspective

With his quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon, Bernard Tomic will break into the ATP top 100 for the first time on Monday.  He’ll do so with style, jumping from #158 to approximately #70.  (He will be considerably higher in my rankings–before the tournament, I had him just inside the top 50.)

As I’ve written before, a player’s chances of reaching the top of the men’s game have a lot to do with how early he cracks the top 100.  If you’re going to be a top-tenner, odds are you’re flashing some measure of those skills as a teenager.  In fact, to quote myself:

In the last 30 years, only one #1-ranked player (Pat Rafter) hadn’t reached the top 100 as a teenager, and he made it into the top 100 when he was 20.  Almost every eventual top-10 player had broken into the top 100 by age 21.

In that sense, Tomic is well ahead of the curve.  He doesn’t turn 19 until October, making him five months younger than Ryan Harrison, another teenager soon to break into the top 100.  Reaching #70 at such a young age isn’t a guarantee of future success, but it strongly points in that direction.  Again from my earlier post: 11% of players who cracked the top 100 at age 18 went on to become #1, and more than half (61%) eventually reached the top ten.

Tomic’s “comps”

Let’s take a narrower look and examine the 20 players who broke into the top 100 at ages closest to Tomic’s current age of 18.7 years.  It’s an impressive list, including Andy Roddick and Ivan Lendl, along with another 11 top-tenners.  Of these players the only “busts” were Andreas Vinciguerra (peak ranking: 33), Richard Fromberg (peak: 24), and Evgeny Korolev, who may yet improve on his peak ranking of 46.

In this group of 20 players, the average peak ranking is 11, and the median peak ranking is 8.  The average number of weeks in the top 100 is 362 (roughly eight years) and the median number of weeks is 410 (more than nine years).  Even 410 slightly understates a reasonable projection, since a few of these players (Roddick, Gael Monfils, Tommy Robredo, and Mikhail Youzhny) are guaranteed to add to their totals.

What may be most impressive about Tomic’s ranking at such a young age is that he has accomplished it the hard way.  He’s gotten plenty of wild cards–including at the Australian Open, where he reached the third round–but he qualified at Wimbledon, and a substantial chunk of his ranking points come from the challenger level, where he has reached four semifinals in 2011 alone.  His only “cheap” points are from Indian Wells, where he was wildcarded in, then beat Rohan Bopanna in the first round.

Now, Tomic’s ranking ensures that wild cards won’t be an issue, except at a few Masters 1000 tournaments.  If history is any guide, he’ll be a regular feature in the top echelon of the tour for most of this decade.

WTA Hard Court Rankings, pre-Wimbledon

Watch out, ladies, this site isn’t just for the ATP anymore.

It was a bit of a struggle, but I was able to assemble a ranking and results database for women’s tennis (both WTA and ITF) going back several years.  That allowed me to apply my ranking algorithm to WTA players.  This is still a work in progress–I’ve had to borrow a few assumptions from my ATP research–but I think the results generally make a lot of sense.

For newcomers, here are a few of the key differences between my rankings and the official WTA rankings:

  • My system considers matches going back two years–not just one.  Incidentally, this helps us better evaluate the Williams sisters, just as it helps us with Juan Martin del Potro in the ATP numbers.
  • The more recent the tournament, the more it counts in the rankings.
  • Points are based almost entirely on the quality of opponents, not on the level of the event.  If you beat Vera Zvonereva, it’s worth the same number of points whether it’s at Indian Wells or in Brussels.  (There is a slight boost for grand slams, on the assumption that players plan their seasons to peak at the slams.)
  • Surface is considered.  For these hard/grass-court rankings, hard-court results are weighted more heavily than clay-court results.  For instance, Francesca Schiavone is #26 here, but #10 in the clay-court rankings.

Here is the HeavyTopspin.com WTA hard-court top 100:

RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
1     Kim Clijsters                  9286  
2     Caroline Wozniacki             7888  
3     Victoria Azarenka              7040  
4     Vera Zvonareva                 6222  
5     Na Li                          5167  
6     Serena Williams                5142  
7     Petra Kvitova                  4854  
8     Maria Sharapova                4596  
9     Svetlana Kuznetsova            3607  
10    Venus Williams                 3551  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
11    Andrea Petkovic                3514  
12    Shuai Peng                     3498  
13    Marion Bartoli                 3332  
14    Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova       3268  
15    Agnieszka Radwanska            3207  
16    Samantha Stosur                3137  
17    Ana Ivanovic                   3129  
18    Flavia Pennetta                3074  
19    Alisa Kleybanova               3005  
20    Dominika Cibulkova             2931  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
21    Jelena Jankovic                2693  
22    Daniela Hantuchova             2505  
23    Yanina Wickmayer               2452  
24    Shahar Peer                    2318  
25    Kaia Kanepi                    2252  
26    Francesca Schiavone            2229  
27    Ekaterina Makarova             2010  
28    Sabine Lisicki                 1997  
29    Julia Goerges                  1970  
30    Maria Kirilenko                1961  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
31    Lucie Safarova                 1913  
32    Elena Vesnina                  1912  
33    Gisela Dulko                   1835  
34    Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez    1764  
35    Nadia Petrova                  1717  
36    Virginie Razzano               1673  
37    Dinara Safina                  1626  
38    Jie Zheng                      1619  
39    Anastasija Sevastova           1484  
40    Klara Zakopalova               1450  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
41    Aravane Rezai                  1420  
42    Kateryna Bondarenko            1370  
43    Bethanie Mattek-Sands          1345  
44    Roberta Vinci                  1320  
45    Anna Chakvetadze               1294  
46    Alona Bondarenko               1277  
47    Jarmila Gajdosova              1263  
48    Melanie Oudin                  1247  
49    Vera Dushevina                 1168  
50    Iveta Benesova                 1166  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
51    Alize Cornet                   1157  
52    Sara Errani                    1102  
53    Magdalena Rybarikova           1048  
54    Timea Bacsinszky               1038  
55    Agnes Szavay                    991  
56    Tsvetana Pironkova              986  
57    Barbora Zahlavova Strycova      953  
58    Bojana Jovanovski               952  
59    Kimiko Date-Krumm               917  
60    Alexandra Dulgheru              905  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
61    Greta Arn                       891  
62    Simona Halep                    889  
63    Tamira Paszek                   868  
64    Vania King                      856  
65    Polona Hercog                   848  
66    Angelique Kerber                820  
67    Jelena Dokic                    818  
68    Christina McHale                800  
69    Elena Baltacha                  784  
70    Sorana Cirstea                  771  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
71    Carla Suarez Navarro            751  
72    Yaroslava Shvedova              749  
73    Kirsten Flipkens                741  
74    Lucie Hradecka                  738  
75    Sybille Bammer                  737  
76    Aleksandra Wozniak              728  
77    Johanna Larsson                 722  
78    Alla Kudryavtseva               716  
79    Regina Kulikova                 693  
80    Monica Niculescu                677  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
81    Petra Martic                    671  
82    Kristina Barrois                656  
83    Ayumi Morita                    654  
84    Urszula Radwanska               638  
85    Olga Govortsova                 635  
86    Sofia Arvidsson                 630  
87    Coco Vandeweghe                 602  
88    Anastasiya Yakimova             592  
89    Anabel Medina Garrigues         590  
90    Kai-Chen Chang                  570  
                                           
RANK  PLAYER                       POINTS  
91    Eleni Daniilidou                566  
92    Rebecca Marino                  564  
93    Anastasia Rodionova             560  
94    Melinda Czink                   550  
95    Arantxa Rus                     535  
96    Ksenia Pervak                   527  
97    Michaella Krajicek              522  
98    Vesna Dolonts                   512  
99    Tamarine Tanasugarn             508  
100   Alison Riske                    501

Hard Court Rankings, Post French-Open

It’s been a little while since I’ve posted anything from my ranking system.  If you’re new around here and don’t know what I’m talking about, you can read up on how my rankings are calculated here.  The short version is that they take into account results, giving you more points for beating good players than beating weaker players.  There are many other factors that go into it, and once the stew is stirred, these rankings do a better job of predicting match results than do the ATP rankings.

One odd thing about surface rankings is that they are most interesting when they are most unreliable.  Right now, we’re shifting gears from clay to grass, and no one has played a match on a hard court since Miami.  But because we’ve switched over, hard court results matter.  (Because there are so few grass-court events, I have to group hard and grass together.)

Without further ado, here is the top 40 through the French Open, rated for current hard-court ability level.

1   Novak Djokovic          6836  
2   Rafael Nadal            5090  
3   Roger Federer           4902  
4   Juan Martin del Potro   4207  
5   Andy Murray             3726  
6   Robin Soderling         2682  
7   Stanislas Wawrinka      2244  
8   Mardy Fish              2072  
9   Gael Monfils            1909  
10  Tomas Berdych           1862  
                                  
11  Andy Roddick            1858  
12  Marin Cilic             1826  
13  David Ferrer            1742  
14  Nikolay Davydenko       1721  
15  Marcos Baghdatis        1603  
16  Milos Raonic            1477  
17  Alexander Dolgopolov    1416  
18  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      1393  
19  Richard Gasquet         1389  
20  Florian Mayer           1354  
                                  
21  Gilles Simon            1333  
22  Viktor Troicki          1226  
23  Fernando Verdasco       1192  
24  Kei Nishikori           1180  
25  Mikhail Youzhny         1156  
26  Jurgen Melzer           1116  
27  Samuel Querrey          1031  
28  Janko Tipsarevic        1015  
29  Ivan Ljubicic            993  
30  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez   983  
                                  
31  Juan Monaco              967  
32  Michael Llodra           914  
33  John Isner               907  
34  Philipp Kohlschreiber    890  
35  Jeremy Chardy            872  
36  Nicolas Almagro          852  
37  David Nalbandian         846  
38  Feliciano Lopez          784  
39  Radek Stepanek           759  
40  Lleyton Hewitt           753

(The points don’t mean anything concrete, though they do give you an idea of the differences between adjacent players.)

The biggest surprise in the top 10 is Stanislas Wawrinka, and of course, he’s made me look dumb by losing in his first match to British wild card James Ward.  Yikes.  That will probably knock him down a spot or three before next week’s rankings.  Seeing Lleyton Hewitt at the bottom of this list is a reminder that he’s only a year removed from some very good hard-court results, and if healthy, he could generate some upsets at Halle and Wimbledon.

Updated Clay Rankings and Roland Garros Qualifying Threats

Last week, I wrote up a piece for ESPN.com that is supposed to run today.  I’ll post a link as soon as it’s up.  The article uses my ranking system to order the top players on clay, and of course, between last week’s deadline and this week’s publication, the ranking changed.

Here are some gainers and losers in my system heading into the French:

  • Djokovic is #1.  Now that he’s beaten Nadal twice in a row, it isn’t even close.  In Rome, my system gave Rafa a slight edge; if they meet in the French Open final, it thinks Novak has a 58% chance of winning.  Oddly enough, that percentage is a little stronger on clay now than it is on hard courts, though of course Djokovic is favored on all surfaces.
  • Murray is at #6, but basically tied for #5 with Soderling.  Coming into the clay season, he was outside the top ten on the surface; a couple of good results and he’s moving up the list.  If anything, his ranking underrates him, as we saw in his match against Djokovic last week.
  • Richard Gasquet is #8.  He’s been going deep almost every week, and he has lost only to the best.  If I were a top-8 player, I wouldn’t want to see him in my quarter of the draw.
  • A trio of disappointment: Mikhail Youzhny, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Juan Monaco.  Three very different players, none of whom are posting any results to be proud of.  Dolgo, especially, should do better–this could have been his season to break through. They sit at #33, #37, and #41, respectively.
Here are a handful of players who do well in my ranking system and are fighting through Roland Garros qualifying this week:
  • #60 Thomas Schoorel — he’s been a beast on the European challenger circuit lately, and he could make trouble for players who have yet to face the big serving of this tall lefty.
  • #66 Ryan Harrison
  • #71 Ilya Marchenko
  • #73 Andrey Kuznetsov (he’ll play Marchenko in the second round)
  • #87 Horacio Zeballos — I’ve mostly given up hope on the Argentine breaking through, but you never know.
  • All between #90 and #100, all into the second round: Facundo Bagnis, Evgeny Donskoy, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, and Federico del Bonis.
As soon as the qualifiers are placed in the main draw, I’ll run a simulation for the entire tournament.

Breaking In and Breaking Through

Yesterday we looked at players who broke into the top 100 when they were teenagers.  As expected, those guys generally went on to great success–17 of the last 25 eventually reached the top 10, and at least two more may still do so.

We can gain a broader perspective by analyzing more than just teenagers.  If a 19-year-old entering the top 100 is likely to become a top-10 player, what chances do 22-year-olds or 26-year-olds have?  By examining a few decades of the ATP ranking system, we can begin to answer these questions.

I used a sample of 590 players–everyone who entered the top 100 between 1980 and 2005.  (It’s possible that a few recent players will continue to improve, but the vast majority of players get close to their peak within five years, so 2005 seems like  a reasonable cutoff date.)  A bit less than half of those 590 broke into the top 100 between the ages of 20 and 22, about a third were older, and the remainder were teenagers.

As you can see in the table below, there is a clear correlation between breaking into the top 100 at an early age and reaching the higher echelons of the pro game.  In the last 30 years, only one #1-ranked player (Pat Rafter) hadn’t reached the top 100 as a teenager, and he made it into the top 100 when he was 20.  Almost every eventual top-10 player had broken into the top 100 by age 21.

Age  Players  Top50  Top20  Top10  Top5  Top1
16         4   100%   100%   100%   75%   50%
17        16   100%    88%    69%   56%   38%
18        38    87%    76%    61%   34%   11%
19        61    89%    48%    41%   20%    8%
20        88    86%    48%    25%   13%    1%
21        99    63%    22%    12%    7%    0%
22        83    47%     8%     5%    2%    0%
23        61    44%    16%     3%    0%    0%
24        62    31%     3%     0%    0%    0%
25        32    25%     0%     0%    0%    0%
26        10    60%    10%     0%    0%    0%
27        16    31%     0%     0%    0%    0%
28        10    20%     0%     0%    0%    0%
29+       10     0%     0%     0%    0%    0%

It’s not entirely clear that these trends are consistent from decade to decade–yesterday, I noted that fewer teenagers had reached the top 100 in the last ten years or so.  It’s possible that as the quality of the game improves and a larger amount of training is necessary to prepare for the pro tour, there will be fewer prodigies like Nadal, who broke in at age 16, and Richard Gasquet, who arrived as a 17-year-old.

But even if the ages shift by a year or two, the overall conclusions should hold.  The older you are when you arrive in the top 100, the less likely it is that you will advance considerably further.

One obvious application of this data is to make predictions regarding players as they enter the top 100.  The last two men to break in are Benoit Paire (age 22) and Matthias Bachinger (age 24).  Paire is still young enough to have an outside shot at the top 10; Bachinger will have a hard time doing much better than #50.  Another recent newbie is Go Soeda, a 26-year-old.  To find someone who made a top-20 success out of so late a breakthrough, you have to go back to Steve Denton in the mid-80s.

Another way to use this information is to find top prospects among current players.  Among active tour pros, the four men who broke in at the youngest ages are Nadal, Gasquet, Juan Martin del Potro, and Novak Djokovic.  The next two might surprise you: Kei Nishikori and Donald Young.  Nishikori has only now recovered from battles with injury–perhaps he will start to make good on his promise.  Young may be a unique case–were it not for his many, many wildcards, he would not have reached the top 100 so early.

Another surprise is the active player with the 10th-youngest age-of-reaching-100: Evgeny Korolev.  The Russian has also struggled with injury, but he did crack the top 50 last year.

The more oft-mentioned “prospects” are a little further down the list.  Grigor Dimitrov broke in at 19.7 years of age, while Milos Raonic appeared just after his 20th birthday–a few days older than the first appearance of Mischa Zverev.  Alexander Dolgopolov is further down than you might expect, having broken in at age 21.3, while Ryan Sweeting didn’t get there until 23.5.

Of course, “age of first appearance in the top 100” is just one metric, and it doesn’t tell the whole story.  Perhaps players who spend several years in college account for that blip in the table at age 23–John Isner, for instance, didn’t reach the top 100 until he was nearly 23, and he has already hit a peak ranking of #18.  The metric might also underrate the chances of those who suffer prolonged injury at an early age–perhaps if Nishikori had lost his two years to injury one season sooner, he would have only recently reached the top 100 with the same skills and potential.

Warts and all, this angle is a good reminder of why we should keep a close eye on youngsters in the futures and challenger tours–the latest, greatest 23-year-old is almost guaranteed not to be the future of the sport.

Teenagers in the Top 100

If Ryan Harrison qualifies for the French Open and reaches the second round, he’ll probably break into the top 100. I wouldn’t bet on that degree of success at Roland Garros, but the relevant point is that the young American is close–if he falters in Paris, a couple of deep runs at challenger events will do the trick.

Harrison just turned 19, and he is the youngest player in the top 150. When Grigor Dimitrov turns 20 next Monday, Harrison will the be the top-ranked 19-year-old in the world. There is a widespread sense that reaching the top 100 is one measure of “making it,” and an equally popular notion that if a player hits that benchmark at such a young age, he is probably destined for success.

Indeed, hitting the top 100 as a teenager is rare, and it’s getting even less common.  Of the 940 players who have spent time in the top 100 in the history of the ATP ranking computer, fewer than 150 (16%) broke in when they were teenagers.  Since the beginning of 2001, 209 players have broken in, including only 25 teenagers (12%).

As you might expect, those 25 have generally gone on to very successful careers.  20 have reached the top 20, and 17 have climbed into the top 10.  It’s even better than that, since in time, Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori seem likely to make those numbers 22 and 19 out of 25.

If Harrison breaks into the top 100 by the end of July, he’ll become the 20th youngest player to do so since the beginning of 2001.  If we want to get technical and limit the span to exactly 10 years, he’ll become the 16th youngest player since mid-2001.  (Early 2001 was a good time for teenagers, with Jose Acasuso, Andy Roddick, Mikhail Youhzny, and Tommy Robredo all reaching the top 100 in the span of three months.)

Incidentally, Bernard Tomic has a chance to make an even more impressive mark, as he is five and a half months younger than Harrison.  However, he’s 50 spots and 130 points lower on the ranking computer, so his appearance in the top 100 as a teenager seems far less assured.

After the jump, see the full list of teenagers who reached the top 100 since 2001.

Continue reading Teenagers in the Top 100

Monday Topspin: Seven in a Row

King of Clay: It’s no shocker, but it’s still mighty impressive.  Rafael Nadal won his 7th consecutive Monte Carlo championship, defeating David Ferrer in a tight match.  It’s a sign of just how dominant Rafa is on clay that his last two matches actually represent a step forward for the field–Andy Murray took a set on Saturday, and there was very little separating Nadal and Ferrer yesterday.

In fact, if I were a fellow player watching those matches, I might think–for the first time in at least a year–that Nadal can be beaten.  Murray showed that you can beat him (at least for a string of several games) at his own game, with a heavy dose of patient defense and the occasional attack.  Yesterday, Rafa was off his game, and it was enough to give Ferrer several chances.  In fact, here’s a bold prediction for you: I’m going on record saying that Nadal will lose a match on clay this year.

Betting on it: I don’t think the oddsmakers agree with me.  The betting lines on Nadal’s matches last week were absolutely off the charts.  Before Rafa’s second-rounder with Jarkko Nieminen, at one point you could have gotten 120-1 odds on the Finn.  Sportsbooks were giving both Richard Gasquet and Ivan Ljubicic about a 3.5% chance of winning, and even Andy Murray merited only a 9% chance.  Hey, maybe those odds are correct, but … a top 5 player going off at 11-1?  Amazing.

Rankings: The biggest points gainer of the week is Ferrer, who improved on his previous result in Monte Carlo, but he stays at #6, merely closing the gap separating him from Robin Soderling.  Other players whose rankings benefited from the tournament include Milos Raonic, up 6 places to #28, Ivan Ljubicic, up 7 to #33, and surprise quarterfinalist Frederico Gil, up 18 to a new career high of #64.

Two challenger winners climbed to new career highs: Matthias Bachinger, champion in Athens, breaks into the top 100 for the first time at #99, while Thomas Schoorel, the Rome titlist, jumps 36 places to 126.  Also notable is Tallahassee winner Donald Young, up 24 to #98.

The loser of the week is, without question, Fernando Verdasco.  Finalist last year in Monte Carlo, he lost his first match and his place in the top 10, falling four places to #12.

Barcelona: The first round in Spain is in progress, and after the star-studded cast in Monte Carlo, it’s a bit of a letdown.  While there’s plenty of firepower at the top of the draw–Nadal, Murray, Ferrer, and Soderling are all present–the top eight seeds have byes in the first round, leaving something that looks more like Monte Carlo qualifying.  The highlight of today’s action is probably the last match of the day, between Juan Monaco and Grigor Dimitrov.

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the biggest story of the opening round: the return of Juan Carlos Ferrero.  He hasn’t played since last year’s U.S. Open, and has seen his ranking fall to #77 in that time.  He’ll begin with a match against Xavier Malisse for a chance to play Murray.

Beyond that, it’s a clay-courter’s paradise.  14 of the 56 men in the main draw are Spainards, and the percentage of locals may climb even higher after the first round.  Also of interest in the country count: There’s only one American in the draw, and it’s Robert Kendrick.  That must be a first for him at the ATP level.

Housekeeping: As regular readers surely noticed, I wasn’t able to keep up my daily schedule last week.  Unfortunately, that’s probably a sign of things to come.  I’ll keep posting as much as my schedule allows.

Also, later today, as soon as I can get my databases updated, I’ll post my projections for Barcelona.  It will be a little silly with so much of the first round on record, but I like to get this stuff on record.

Monday Topspin: Thriller

Djokovic undefeated: Novak Djokovic has yet to lose a match this season, and now holds two consecutive masters crowns.  In the process, he opened up some distance between himself and Roger Federer in the ATP rankings, and planted the seed in some people’s minds that he might be deserving of the #1 spot.  By just about any standard, he’s already the best player in the world on hard courts.

It wasn’t easy.  As in Indian Wells two weeks ago, Rafael Nadal came out in fine form, taking the first set after racing to a 5-1, double-break lead.  Djokovic narrowed the gap but was unable to make up the difference.  The Serbian won a hard-fought second set, then the two players settled in to trade service holds up to a tiebreak.  Djokovic got a couple of mini-breaks, including one on a Nadal double fault, and won the match 4-6 6-3 7-6(4).

What amazes me is how anybody beats either of these guys, particularly Nadal.  I know from the stats that he made his share of unforced errors (including several double faults), but I can’t remember very many of them.  What sticks in the mind is Rafa running down everything, turning defensive positions into offensive shots, over and over again.  Both players were near the top of their game yesterday, and Djokovic was able to rack up a just a few more winners.

The one baffling thing is Nadal’s reluctance to come to net.  (I know, I’m starting to sound like a TV announcer–I promise it’s just a coincidence that I’m making this sort of comment two days in a row.)  He was often standing right on the baseline, even hitting groundstrokes from a step inside the baseline.  Yet he almost never came forward unless forced.  Even with an imperfect net game, even against the passing-shot machine that is Djokovic, I think he would’ve been more successful taking advantage of some of those offensive positions.

Now, we have two streaks to watch going into the clay-court season.  Both players will be at the Monte Carlo Masters, where Djokovic will try to build on his 26-match winning streak.  Nadal has a 24-match winning streak on clay, including every match he played last year plus two Davis Cup rubbers in 2009.  One of them will have to fall by this time two weeks from now, and I suspect it will be Djokovic’s turn to play runner-up.

Rankings: The major storyline this week is the arrival of a new American #1.  Mardy Fish jumped four spots to #11 with his semifinal showing in Miami, while Andy Roddick fell to #14 by failing to defend his title.  That’s Roddick’s lowest ranking since Wimbledon, 2002, and it’s Fish’s career high.

Robin Soderling also failed to defend his 2010 points, and handed the #4 spot back to Andy Murray.

Other gainers this week are Gilles Simon (up 4 to #23), Kevin Anderson (up 7 to #33), Janko Tipsarevic (up 6 to #38), Juan Martin del Potro (up 6 to #45), and Olivier Rochus (up 13 to #73).

Four players hit important milestones with Challenger-level wins.  Andreas Haider-Maurer broke into the top 100 for the first time with a win at Caltanissetta and a semifinal showing at Barletta.  Facundo Bagnis and Maxime Teixeira won tournaments in Barranquilla and St. Brieuc, respectively, each reaching the top 200 for the first time in their young careers.  The most remarkable result belongs to Aljaz Bedene, a Slovenian who won in Barletta on a wild card.  Bedene ascends 206 ranking spots to #282, only 16 off his career high.

Houston qualifying: By the end of the day, the last four players will be entered into the draw at the U.S. Clay Court Championships.  The final four qualifying matches each have one American, with Alex Bogomolov, Donald Young, Tim Smyczek, and Rajeev Ram still in the running.  It won’t be easy for these guys to make the main draw, however, as Young must defeat Ivo Karlovic, and Ram needs to beat Paul Capdeville.

With less tennis to watch this week, I’m hoping to break out some clay-court rankings by next Monday, as well as a couple of other mini-studies I’m working on.  Stay tuned!