Category: Prospect Rankings

Prospect Rankings: January 2012

With the 2012 season underway, it’s time for a look at the highest-ranked youngsters. In the “Under 23” category, you’ll see mostly familiar names. I like this list because it’s a useful reminder of who is still on the way up–Donald Young was disappointing for so long that we forget he could still mount an impressive career. To a lesser extent, the same can be said about Benoit Paire.

After Bernard Tomic’s and Benjamin Mitchell’s birthdays in the last few months, the “Under 19” cupboard is bare. It will be interesting to see who emerges from that group.

UNDER 23
25   Kei Nishikori         JPN  12/29/89  
31   Milos Raonic          CAN  12/27/90  
39   Donald Young          USA   7/23/89  
42   Bernard Tomic         AUS  10/21/92  
76   Grigor Dimitrov       BUL   5/16/91  
79   Ryan Harrison         USA    5/7/92  
81   Cedrik-Marcel Stebe   GER   10/9/90  
95   Benoit Paire          FRA    5/8/89  
117  Martin Klizan         SVK   7/11/89  
119  Vasek Pospisil        CAN   6/23/90  
125  Richard Berankis      LTU   6/21/90  
133  Thomas Schoorel       NED    4/8/89  
135  Alessandro Giannessi  ITA   5/30/90  
136  Pablo Carreno         ESP   7/12/91  
144  Evgeny Donskoy        RUS    5/9/90  
157  Facundo Bagnis        ARG   2/27/90  
163  Maxime Teixeira       FRA   1/18/89  
165  Aljaz Bedene          SLO   7/18/89  
166  Federico del Bonis    ARG   10/5/90  
172  Gastao Elias          POR  11/24/90  
UNDER 21
42   Bernard Tomic      AUS  10/21/92  
76   Grigor Dimitrov    BUL   5/16/91  
79   Ryan Harrison      USA    5/7/92  
136  Pablo Carreno      ESP   7/12/91  
173  Tsung-Hua Yang     TPE   3/20/91  
184  Javier Marti       ESP   1/11/92  
198  Laurynas Grigelis  LTU   8/14/91  
222  Andrey Kuznetsov   RUS   2/22/91  
227  Benjamin Mitchell  AUS  11/30/92  
275  James Duckworth    AUS   1/21/92  
276  Denis Kudla        USA   8/17/92  
277  Facundo Arguello   ARG    8/4/92  
287  Guilherme Clezar   BRA  12/31/92  
290  Mirza Basic        BIH   7/12/91  
293  Julien Obry        FRA    9/4/91  
321  Nicolas Pastor     ARG   3/12/91  
328  Agustin Velotti    ARG   5/24/92  
331  Kevin Krawietz     GER   1/24/92  
339  Damir Dzumhur      BIH   5/20/92  
345  Yuki Bhambri       IND    7/4/92
UNDER 19
453  Roberto Carballes-Baena      ESP    3/23/93  
463  Tiago Fernandes              BRA    1/29/93  
466  Taro Daniel                  JPN    1/27/93  
486  Andres Artunedo-Martinavarr  ESP    9/14/93  
530  Jason Kubler                 AUS    5/19/93  
569  Bruno Sant'Anna              BRA    7/12/93  
578  Edoardo Eremin               ITA    10/5/93  
603  Jiri Vesely                  CZE    7/10/93  
612  Joao Pedro Sorgi             BRA   10/18/93  
638  Dominic Thiem                AUT     9/3/93  
643  Oliver Golding               GBR    9/29/93  
662  Liam Broady                  GBR     1/4/94  
680  Juan Ignacio Londero         ARG    8/15/93  
715  Hong Chung                   KOR    5/16/93  
726  George Morgan                GBR     2/7/93  
728  Sebastien Boltz              FRA     4/5/93  
739  Denis Yevseyev               KAZ    5/22/93  
785  Bjorn Fratangelo             USA    7/19/93  
788  Matias Sborowitz             CHI     7/9/93

Prospect Rankings, 8 August 2011

I can’t believe it’s been three months and two grand slams since I’ve done one of these! Plenty has happened in the meantime, especially for Bernard Tomic, Wimbledon quarterfinalist. Tomic’s achievements have moved him into the top 100, into the top 3 20-and-unders, and the top 10 22-and-unders–quite a mark for an 18-year-old.

Note also that at the bottom of the 18-and-under list, there are a couple of 17-year-olds, plus Jiri Vesely, who only recently turned 18. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vesely at the top of the 18-and-under list before his next birthday.

18 AND UNDER
68   Bernard Tomic                AUS   10/21/92  
326  Denis Kudla                  USA    8/17/92  
347  Diego Schwartzman            ARG    8/16/92  
356  Benjamin Mitchell            AUS   11/30/92  
390  Guilherme Clezar             BRA   12/31/92  
406  Tiago Fernandes              BRA    1/29/93  
418  Alexander Rumyantsev         RUS    8/16/92  
440  Roberto Carballes-Baena      ESP    3/23/93  
510  Jozef Kovalik                SVK    11/4/92  
531  Victor Baluda                RUS    9/30/92  
549  Jack Sock                    USA    9/24/92  
576  Taro Daniel                  JPN    1/27/93  
628  Micke Kontinen               FIN   12/18/92  
629  Jiri Vesely                  CZE    7/10/93  
648  Suk-Young Jeong              KOR    4/12/93  
669  Liam Broady                  GBR     1/4/94  
673  Edoardo Eremin               ITA  10/5/1993  
684  Jason Kubler                 AUS    5/19/93  
685  Mitchell Frank               USA   10/16/92  
698  Andres Artunedo-Martinavarr  ESP    9/14/93  

20 AND UNDER
26   Milos Raonic         CAN  12/27/90  
56   Grigor Dimitrov      BUL   5/16/91  
68   Bernard Tomic        AUS  10/21/92  
76   Ryan Harrison        USA    5/7/92  
140  Jerzy Janowicz       POL  11/13/90  
150  Cedrik-Marcel Stebe  GER   10/9/90  
185  Pablo Carreno        ESP   7/12/91  
197  Federico del Bonis   ARG   10/5/90  
209  Tsung-Hua Yang       TPE   3/20/91  
211  Facundo Arguello     ARG    8/4/92  
230  Javier Marti         ESP   1/11/92  
233  Marius Copil         ROU  10/17/90  
239  Laurynas Grigelis    LTU   8/14/91  
271  Axel Michon          FRA  12/16/90  
283  Gastao Elias         POR  11/24/90  
284  Alexander Lobkov     RUS   10/7/90  
305  Christian Lindell    SWE  11/20/91  
318  Daniel Cox           GBR   9/28/90  
319  Stefano Travaglia    ITA  12/28/91  
325  Andrey Kuznetsov     RUS   2/22/91  

22 AND UNDER
19   Juan Martin del Potro  ARG   9/23/88  
21   Alexander Dolgopolov   UKR   11/7/88  
26   Milos Raonic           CAN  12/27/90  
29   Marin Cilic            CRO   9/28/88  
48   Kei Nishikori          JPN  12/29/89  
55   Ernests Gulbis         LAT   8/30/88  
56   Grigor Dimitrov        BUL   5/16/91  
68   Bernard Tomic          AUS  10/21/92  
76   Ryan Harrison          USA    5/7/92  
89   Donald Young           USA   7/23/89  
107  Thiemo de Bakker       NED   9/19/88  
115  Thomas Schoorel        NED    4/8/89  
119  Benoit Paire           FRA    5/8/89  
134  Richard Berankis       LTU   6/21/90  
138  Martin Klizan          SVK   7/11/89  
140  Jerzy Janowicz         POL  11/13/90  
150  Cedrik-Marcel Stebe    GER   10/9/90  
155  Vasek Pospisil         CAN   6/23/90  
156  Evgeny Donskoy         RUS    5/9/90  
161  Vladimir Ignatik       BLR   7/14/90

Breaking In and Breaking Through

Yesterday we looked at players who broke into the top 100 when they were teenagers.  As expected, those guys generally went on to great success–17 of the last 25 eventually reached the top 10, and at least two more may still do so.

We can gain a broader perspective by analyzing more than just teenagers.  If a 19-year-old entering the top 100 is likely to become a top-10 player, what chances do 22-year-olds or 26-year-olds have?  By examining a few decades of the ATP ranking system, we can begin to answer these questions.

I used a sample of 590 players–everyone who entered the top 100 between 1980 and 2005.  (It’s possible that a few recent players will continue to improve, but the vast majority of players get close to their peak within five years, so 2005 seems like  a reasonable cutoff date.)  A bit less than half of those 590 broke into the top 100 between the ages of 20 and 22, about a third were older, and the remainder were teenagers.

As you can see in the table below, there is a clear correlation between breaking into the top 100 at an early age and reaching the higher echelons of the pro game.  In the last 30 years, only one #1-ranked player (Pat Rafter) hadn’t reached the top 100 as a teenager, and he made it into the top 100 when he was 20.  Almost every eventual top-10 player had broken into the top 100 by age 21.

Age  Players  Top50  Top20  Top10  Top5  Top1
16         4   100%   100%   100%   75%   50%
17        16   100%    88%    69%   56%   38%
18        38    87%    76%    61%   34%   11%
19        61    89%    48%    41%   20%    8%
20        88    86%    48%    25%   13%    1%
21        99    63%    22%    12%    7%    0%
22        83    47%     8%     5%    2%    0%
23        61    44%    16%     3%    0%    0%
24        62    31%     3%     0%    0%    0%
25        32    25%     0%     0%    0%    0%
26        10    60%    10%     0%    0%    0%
27        16    31%     0%     0%    0%    0%
28        10    20%     0%     0%    0%    0%
29+       10     0%     0%     0%    0%    0%

It’s not entirely clear that these trends are consistent from decade to decade–yesterday, I noted that fewer teenagers had reached the top 100 in the last ten years or so.  It’s possible that as the quality of the game improves and a larger amount of training is necessary to prepare for the pro tour, there will be fewer prodigies like Nadal, who broke in at age 16, and Richard Gasquet, who arrived as a 17-year-old.

But even if the ages shift by a year or two, the overall conclusions should hold.  The older you are when you arrive in the top 100, the less likely it is that you will advance considerably further.

One obvious application of this data is to make predictions regarding players as they enter the top 100.  The last two men to break in are Benoit Paire (age 22) and Matthias Bachinger (age 24).  Paire is still young enough to have an outside shot at the top 10; Bachinger will have a hard time doing much better than #50.  Another recent newbie is Go Soeda, a 26-year-old.  To find someone who made a top-20 success out of so late a breakthrough, you have to go back to Steve Denton in the mid-80s.

Another way to use this information is to find top prospects among current players.  Among active tour pros, the four men who broke in at the youngest ages are Nadal, Gasquet, Juan Martin del Potro, and Novak Djokovic.  The next two might surprise you: Kei Nishikori and Donald Young.  Nishikori has only now recovered from battles with injury–perhaps he will start to make good on his promise.  Young may be a unique case–were it not for his many, many wildcards, he would not have reached the top 100 so early.

Another surprise is the active player with the 10th-youngest age-of-reaching-100: Evgeny Korolev.  The Russian has also struggled with injury, but he did crack the top 50 last year.

The more oft-mentioned “prospects” are a little further down the list.  Grigor Dimitrov broke in at 19.7 years of age, while Milos Raonic appeared just after his 20th birthday–a few days older than the first appearance of Mischa Zverev.  Alexander Dolgopolov is further down than you might expect, having broken in at age 21.3, while Ryan Sweeting didn’t get there until 23.5.

Of course, “age of first appearance in the top 100” is just one metric, and it doesn’t tell the whole story.  Perhaps players who spend several years in college account for that blip in the table at age 23–John Isner, for instance, didn’t reach the top 100 until he was nearly 23, and he has already hit a peak ranking of #18.  The metric might also underrate the chances of those who suffer prolonged injury at an early age–perhaps if Nishikori had lost his two years to injury one season sooner, he would have only recently reached the top 100 with the same skills and potential.

Warts and all, this angle is a good reminder of why we should keep a close eye on youngsters in the futures and challenger tours–the latest, greatest 23-year-old is almost guaranteed not to be the future of the sport.

Teenagers in the Top 100

If Ryan Harrison qualifies for the French Open and reaches the second round, he’ll probably break into the top 100. I wouldn’t bet on that degree of success at Roland Garros, but the relevant point is that the young American is close–if he falters in Paris, a couple of deep runs at challenger events will do the trick.

Harrison just turned 19, and he is the youngest player in the top 150. When Grigor Dimitrov turns 20 next Monday, Harrison will the be the top-ranked 19-year-old in the world. There is a widespread sense that reaching the top 100 is one measure of “making it,” and an equally popular notion that if a player hits that benchmark at such a young age, he is probably destined for success.

Indeed, hitting the top 100 as a teenager is rare, and it’s getting even less common.  Of the 940 players who have spent time in the top 100 in the history of the ATP ranking computer, fewer than 150 (16%) broke in when they were teenagers.  Since the beginning of 2001, 209 players have broken in, including only 25 teenagers (12%).

As you might expect, those 25 have generally gone on to very successful careers.  20 have reached the top 20, and 17 have climbed into the top 10.  It’s even better than that, since in time, Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori seem likely to make those numbers 22 and 19 out of 25.

If Harrison breaks into the top 100 by the end of July, he’ll become the 20th youngest player to do so since the beginning of 2001.  If we want to get technical and limit the span to exactly 10 years, he’ll become the 16th youngest player since mid-2001.  (Early 2001 was a good time for teenagers, with Jose Acasuso, Andy Roddick, Mikhail Youhzny, and Tommy Robredo all reaching the top 100 in the span of three months.)

Incidentally, Bernard Tomic has a chance to make an even more impressive mark, as he is five and a half months younger than Harrison.  However, he’s 50 spots and 130 points lower on the ranking computer, so his appearance in the top 100 as a teenager seems far less assured.

After the jump, see the full list of teenagers who reached the top 100 since 2001.

Continue reading Teenagers in the Top 100

Prospect Rankings, 5/9/11

Haven’t done one of these in a while.  Last week, Ryan Harrison turned 19, which moved Bernard Tomic up to #1 on the 18-and-under list.  Milos Raonic keeps climbing the charts, and may well be #1 on the 22-and-under list the next time I publish this.

18 AND UNDER
174 Bernard Tomic           AUS 10/21/92 
308 Facundo Arguello        ARG   8/4/92 
369 Diego Schwartzman       ARG  8/16/92 
394 Tiago Fernandes         BRA  1/29/93 
395 Yuki Bhambri            IND   7/4/92 
428 Benjamin Mitchell       AUS 11/30/92 
440 Denis Kudla             USA  8/17/92 
471 Alexander Rumyantsev    RUS  8/16/92 
477 Agustin Velotti         ARG  5/24/92 
481 Roberto Carballes-Baena ESP  3/23/93 
561 Carlos Boluda           ESP  1/22/93 
563 Guilherme Clezar        BRA 12/31/92 
575 Jack Sock               USA  9/24/92 
597 Jason Kubler            AUS  5/19/93 
640 Victor Baluda           RUS  9/30/92 
654 Suk-Young Jeong         KOR  4/12/93 
671 Micke Kontinen          FIN 12/18/92 
673 Jozef Kovalik           SVK  11/4/92 
692 Robert Rumler           CZE  12/1/93 
693 Sami Reinwein           GER  5/29/92 

20 AND UNDER
26  Milos Raonic        CAN 12/27/90 
64  Grigor Dimitrov     BUL  5/16/91 
81  Richard Berankis    LTU  6/21/90 
121 Ryan Harrison       USA   5/7/92 
166 Jerzy Janowicz      POL 11/13/90 
167 Vladimir Ignatik    BLR  7/14/90 
174 Bernard Tomic       AUS 10/21/92 
192 Federico del Bonis  ARG  10/5/90 
198 Andrey Kuznetsov    RUS  2/22/91 
204 Marius Copil        ROU 10/17/90 
214 Cedrik-Marcel Stebe GER  10/9/90 
216 David Goffin        BEL  7/12/90 
239 Jonathan Eysseric   FRA  5/27/90 
245 Javier Marti        ESP  1/11/92 
252 Guillaume Rufin     FRA  5/26/90 
257 Vasek Pospisil      CAN  6/23/90 
259 Alexander Lobkov    RUS  10/7/90 
279 Daniel Cox          GBR  9/28/90 
282 Pablo Carreno       ESP  7/12/91 
284 Gastao Elias        POR 11/24/90 

22 AND UNDER
20  Alexander Dolgopolov  UKR  11/7/88 
23  Marin Cilic           CRO  9/28/88 
26  Milos Raonic          CAN 12/27/90 
31  Juan Martin del Potro ARG  9/23/88 
53  Kei Nishikori         JPN 12/29/89 
54  Adrian Mannarino      FRA  6/29/88 
63  Ernests Gulbis        LAT  8/30/88 
64  Grigor Dimitrov       BUL  5/16/91 
74  Thiemo de Bakker      NED  9/19/88 
81  Richard Berankis      LTU  6/21/90 
94  Donald Young          USA  7/23/89 
98  Benoit Paire          FRA   5/8/89 
111 Thomas Schoorel       NED   4/8/89 
121 Ryan Harrison         USA   5/7/92 
130 Tatsuma Ito           JPN  5/18/88 
146 Joao Souza            BRA  5/27/88 
154 Martin Klizan         SVK  7/11/89 
166 Jerzy Janowicz        POL 11/13/90 
167 Vladimir Ignatik      BLR  7/14/90 
174 Bernard Tomic         AUS 10/21/92

Prospect Rankings, 3/21/11

Some of the ATP’s top young stars have put up great results in the last two weeks, so I figured it’s time to revisit the prospect rankings.  You can see the lists from two weeks ago here.

18 AND UNDER
130 Ryan Harrison           USA   5/7/92 
180 Bernard Tomic           AUS 10/21/92 
334 Facundo Arguello        ARG   8/4/92 
397 Diego Schwartzman       ARG  8/16/92 
436 Benjamin Mitchell       AUS 11/30/92 
447 David Souto             VEN  3/26/92 
462 Denis Kudla             USA  8/17/92 
490 Alexander Rumyantsev    RUS  8/16/92 
499 Yuki Bhambri            IND   7/4/92 
512 Tiago Fernandes         BRA  1/29/93 
543 Jason Kubler            AUS  5/19/93 
551 Agustin Velotti         ARG  5/24/92 
565 Carlos Boluda           ESP  1/22/93 
595 Jack Sock               USA  9/24/92 
610 Yasutaka Uchiyama       JPN   8/5/92 
628 Suk-Young Jeong         KOR  4/12/93 
657 Roberto Carballes-Baena ESP  3/23/93 
673 Micke Kontinen          FIN 12/18/92 
678 Stanislav Poplavskiy    UKR   4/2/92 
695 Robert Rumler           CZE  12/1/93 

20 AND UNDER
34  Milos Raonic        CAN 12/27/90 
70  Grigor Dimitrov     BUL  5/16/91 
75  Richard Berankis    LTU  6/21/90 
130 Ryan Harrison       USA   5/7/92 
138 Federico del Bonis  ARG  10/5/90 
168 Jerzy Janowicz      POL 11/13/90 
176 Vladimir Ignatik    BLR  7/14/90 
180 Bernard Tomic       AUS 10/21/92 
200 Evgeny Donskoy      RUS   5/9/90 
216 Marius Copil        ROU 10/17/90 
226 Andrey Kuznetsov    RUS  2/22/91 
227 David Goffin        BEL  7/12/90 
234 Cedrik-Marcel Stebe GER  10/9/90 
242 Filip Krajinovic    SRB  2/27/92 
257 Alexander Lobkov    RUS  10/7/90 
263 Jonathan Eysseric   FRA  5/27/90 
271 Gastao Elias        POR 11/24/90 
272 Pablo Carreno       ESP  7/12/91 
277 Ilya Belyaev        RUS   8/9/90 
290 Daniel Cox          GBR  9/28/90 

22 AND UNDER
20  Marin Cilic           CRO  9/28/88 
23  Alexander Dolgopolov  UKR  11/7/88 
31  Ernests Gulbis        LAT  8/30/88 
34  Milos Raonic          CAN 12/27/90 
51  Juan Martin del Potro ARG  9/23/88 
52  Thiemo de Bakker      NED  9/19/88 
60  Adrian Mannarino      FRA  6/29/88 
62  Kei Nishikori         JPN 12/29/89 
70  Grigor Dimitrov       BUL  5/16/91 
74  Pere Riba             ESP   4/7/88 
75  Richard Berankis      LTU  6/21/90 
124 Benoit Paire          FRA   5/8/89 
125 Joao Souza            BRA  5/27/88 
128 Donald Young          USA  7/23/89 
130 Ryan Harrison         USA   5/7/92 
138 Federico del Bonis    ARG  10/5/90 
164 Martin Klizan         SVK  7/11/89 
168 Jerzy Janowicz        POL 11/13/90 
169 Tatsuma Ito           JPN  5/18/88 
174 Thomas Schoorel       NED   4/8/89

Prospect Rankings, 3/7/11

I’m always on the lookout for promising young tennis talent, and I know I’m not the only one. According to the most recent ATP rankings, here are the top 20 players in the world who are, respectively, 18 or younger, 20 or younger, and 22 or younger. It’s a great way to get some perspective on guys like Marin Cilic and Donald Young–it’s easy to forget that they are still so young.

One note on the 18-and-under list: As far as I can tell, the Australia F2 results didn’t go on the computer this week, so next week Benjamin Mitchell will get credit for his tournament win. I believe that will move him into 5th place, ahead of David Souto.

18 AND UNDER
152  Ryan Harrison            USA    5/7/92  
187  Bernard Tomic            AUS  10/21/92  
334  Facundo Arguello         ARG    8/4/92  
405  Diego Schwartzman        ARG   8/16/92  
443  David Souto              VEN   3/26/92  
460  Denis Kudla              USA   8/17/92  
491  Yuki Bhambri             IND    7/4/92  
519  Alexander Rumyantsev     RUS   8/16/92  
524  Benjamin Mitchell        AUS  11/30/92  
535  Jason Kubler             AUS   5/19/93  
545  Agustin Velotti          ARG   5/24/92  
559  Carlos Boluda            ESP   1/22/93  
582  Tiago Fernandes          BRA   1/29/93  
592  Jack Sock                USA   9/24/92  
607  Renzo Olivo              ARG   3/15/92  
624  Suk-Young Jeong          KOR   4/12/93  
639  Yasutaka Uchiyama        JPN    8/5/92  
652  Roberto Carballes-Baena  ESP   3/23/93  
656  Richard Muzaev           RUS   3/21/92  
675  Micke Kontinen           FIN  12/18/92  

20 AND UNDER
37   Milos Raonic        CAN  12/27/90  
71   Grigor Dimitrov     BUL   5/16/91  
74   Richard Berankis    LTU   6/21/90  
140  Federico del Bonis  ARG   10/5/90  
152  Ryan Harrison       USA    5/7/92  
165  Jerzy Janowicz      POL  11/13/90  
187  Bernard Tomic       AUS  10/21/92  
200  Vladimir Ignatik    BLR   7/14/90  
205  Evgeny Donskoy      RUS    5/9/90  
213  Marius Copil        ROU  10/17/90  
219  David Goffin        BEL   7/12/90  
224  Andrey Kuznetsov    RUS   2/22/91  
229  Filip Krajinovic    SRB   2/27/92  
252  Alexander Lobkov    RUS   10/7/90  
273  Jonathan Eysseric   FRA   5/27/90  
275  Ilya Belyaev        RUS    8/9/90  
289  Rafael Camilo       BRA   3/13/90  
290  Guillaume Rufin     FRA   5/26/90  
292  Pablo Carreno       ESP   7/12/91  
295  Javier Marti        ESP   1/11/92  

22 AND UNDER
20   Marin Cilic            CRO   9/28/88  
23   Alexander Dolgopolov   UKR   11/7/88  
34   Ernests Gulbis         LAT   8/30/88  
37   Milos Raonic           CAN  12/27/90  
53   Thiemo de Bakker       NED   9/19/88  
59   Adrian Mannarino       FRA   6/29/88  
63   Kei Nishikori          JPN  12/29/89  
71   Grigor Dimitrov        BUL   5/16/91  
72   Pere Riba              ESP    4/7/88  
74   Richard Berankis       LTU   6/21/90  
90   Juan Martin del Potro  ARG   9/23/88  
117  Benoit Paire           FRA    5/8/89  
124  Joao Souza             BRA   5/27/88  
140  Federico del Bonis     ARG   10/5/90  
143  Donald Young           USA   7/23/89  
152  Ryan Harrison          USA    5/7/92  
165  Jerzy Janowicz         POL  11/13/90  
167  Thomas Schoorel        NED    4/8/89  
169  Martin Klizan          SVK   7/11/89  
172  Roberto Bautista       ESP   4/14/88