Podcast – Heavy Topspin

Podcast Episode 116: Tennis 128 Wrap-Up

This year, I ranked the top 128 players of the last 100 years. I wrote long-form essays about each one, which I’ve published over the last eleven months. You can see the introduction to the project here, jump into the middle with Helen Jacobs, or skip to the end and read about the greatest player of all time, Rod Laver.

Carl Bialik joined me for a podcast episode to mark the end of the project. We solicited questions, and many of you came through–we ended up with a list of over 200 questions! Spoiler alert: Even after three hours, we didn’t get through them all. I may write something in the next couple of weeks touching on some of the questions we didn’t have time for.

We talk about the algorithm, players with controversial rankings (or no rankings at all), reactions to the project, and much, much more. The full list of questions, with time stamps, is below. Surely, though, you’ll want to listen to the whole thing. Thanks to Carl for hosting and organizing the episode, and to all of those who made suggestions.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 2 hours, 54 minutes minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use the feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

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The algorithm

What is and isn’t your ranking system, concisely? (00:04:30)
Why did you settle on the three main components? (00:08:10)
Is the 128 your answer to the GOAT debate? (00:12:30)
Are there ways you’d consider improving the algorithm? (00:14:20)
Do Suzanne Lenglen and Bill Tilden have a disadvantage in the algorithm (compared to modern players) because there weren’t a lot of established players with “deep” Elo rankings for them to beat? (00:15:35)
Did you change any rankings based on what you found after you started to research players? (00:20:30)
You mentioned that a few players got a slight bump thanks to off-court contributions/legacy. Which players (other than Ora Washington), and how much? (00:22:45)
How soon will the pre-Open era men’s Elo ratings become public on the website? (And other info including all data for selecting/ranking 128) (00:25:40)
Do you feel different about your methodology after researching all 128 players than at the start? (00:28:25)
Is it a weakness of the algorithm that the importance of the tournament and round doesn’t make a difference to the impact of a match on Elo? (00:31:40)
Why put men and women on the same list? (00:35:15)

Second-guessing

Who is the most underrated player in tennis history? (00:39:00)
Who is the most overrated player in tennis history? (00:41:50)
What do people most often get wrong when trying to rank the GOATs? (00:43:10)
What player ranking (either in absolute terms or relative to another player) do you disagree with the most? (00:47:40)
Who didn’t make the cut who most surprised you? (00:51:15)

Hypotheticals

From the 128 algorithm is there any indication how the level among the (1926-68) pro men’s players compared to the amateur players of the time? (00:53:40)
Do you think the men’s pro game served to delay the start of the open era? Or is it possible that without the pro game, tennis might never have gone open, and become like so many Olympic sports that have no money – such as skating or many track and field events? (00:57:55)
With the return of career length to pre-1970 levels, is it fair to say that the inability of the top players in the 1980s and ’90s to stay at the top was due to rapid changes in equipment technology? (that have since slowed down) (01:00:35)
Modern players have both better equipment and better coaching/training/analytics than past players did. Which do you think gives modern players a greater advantage over their past peers, equipment or coaching/training/analytics? (01:03:35)

Laver and Graf

What happened to Laver at Slams after 1969? (01:05:05)
Realistically how possible is it for Djokovic to catch up to Laver? Working on the assumption he won’t be improving on his peak metrics at this stage of his career, how many 2019-2022 type seasons does he need to put up to close the gap? (01:07:20)
If Monica Seles had not been stabbed, do you think Graf would still have been the top woman in the 128? (01:09:00)
What do you think would happen if Graf were to play Helen Wills or Suzanne Lenglen? (01:11:15)

Rankings of note (or not)

Michael Stich (01:13:25)
David Ferrer (01:15:30)
Pam Shriver (01:16:20)
Gabriela Sabatini (01:18:00)
Marat Safin (and Kuerten and Kafelnikov) (01:20:00)
Adriano Panatta (01:22:25)
Amanda Coetzer (01:24:00)
Barbara Schett (01:25:45)
Carlos Alcaraz (01:25:00)
Dominic Thiem (01:28:05)
Angelique Kerber (01:28:50)
Iga Swiatek (01:29:10)
Doubles specialists (01:30:25)
Wheelchair players (01:31:25)
If Ora Washington merited a spot, are there pre-integration Black men players who belong on the list as well? (01:32:35)

Essays and research

Which player do you think overcame the most to get to the top? (01:34:35)
Which match do you most wish you had attended? (01:37:35)
Why are there so few LGBT men in the 128? And why are the ones we know about (Tilden, von Cramm) from so long ago? (01:38:55)
What was your least favorite newspaper or writer or other source? (01:41:50)
There are only six black athletes in the 128 and another seven or so who might be identified as people of color by some standard. Does tennis have a racism problem? Is it improving? (01:44:30)
Why do you hate Justine Henin so much? (01:47:10)
Who is your favorite pre-WW1 women’s player and why? (01:51:30)
Which tennis era did you most enjoy researching and writing about? (01:53:45)
What player would you most have liked to write an essay about, but didn’t get the chance to because they didn’t make the list? (01:57:55)

Reactions

Do you receive a lot of criticism when fans think you’ve placed their favorite player too low? (02:00:35)
Which player’s placement generated the most controversy? (02:03:05)
Have you gotten any reactions from players themselves? (02:04:35)
What has been the oddest reaction to a post? (02:05:30)
How many people do you think have read every word? (02:06:30)
Have you heard from Joe Posnanski about the project? (02:08:35)

Jeff, post-128

Has the 128 scratched an itch and can you now stop thinking about the best of all times as much? (02:09:20)
What are your goals for the tennisabstract.com website? (02:12:55)
What advice would you give yourself in January, looking back? (02:14:40)
Do you foresee re-running the 128 calculation ever again? More than once? (02:20:45)
What number do you wish you’d done? (02:22:15)
How much will you miss doing the 128? (02:25:25)
How proud are you of the result? (02:26:50)
Will you publish the results and essays in a book? (02:33:25)
Who would you like to thank for support in this journey? (02:35:30)
What will you do next? (02:41:25)

Podcast Episode 115: Jeff McFarland on Jim Courier and GOAT Algorithms

Jeff McFarland is the proprietor of the analytics site Hidden Game of Tennis, and like me, he has tried his hand at various mathematical approaches to rank the best players of all time, in both tennis and baseball.

We start this jumbo episode by talking about Jim Courier–#107 on my Tennis 128 list–a player with a reputation that outstrips his career record, though both are outstanding. Jeff weighs in on the Courier-Chang comparison, and we talk about how Jimbo’s inside-out forehand changed the game. We consider whether the early 1990s were a deceptively weak era, how much weight the slams deserve, which current players are most like Courier, some possible limitations of Elo for GOAT rankings, and–in more than one and half hours of tennis talk–a whole lot more.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 103 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use the feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Podcast Episode 114: Ana Mitrić on Goran Ivanišević and Tennis in the Former Yugoslavia

Serbian-American writer Ana Mitrić joins me to discuss the latest entry in my Tennis 128, Goran Ivanišević. Ana was a Goran fan even before she took a broader interest in tennis, and she is particularly sensitive to how the breakup of the former Yugoslavia affected players on all sides of the conflict.

We talk about the state of Yugoslav tennis before the wars, Goran’s status in his native Croatia, and how his attitude to the conflict differed from older players. We also discuss how Ivanišević attracted so many fans despite a one-dimensional game that was often boring in less-mercurial hands, why his outspokenness didn’t seem to turn people off, and what he now brings to Team Djoković.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 69 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use the feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Podcast Episode 113: Grace Lichtenstein on A Long Way, Baby and Women’s Tennis in 1973

In 1973, New York Times reporter Grace Lichtenstein was approached to write a book, A Long Way, Baby, about the fledgling women’s professional tour. It turned out to be a pivotal season in the sport’s history, and the book concludes with an in-person account of the famous Battle of the Sexes match between Billie Jean King and Bobby Riggs.

The subtitle of the book is, “Behind the Scenes in Women’s Pro Tennis,” and Grace got to know the players–including Billie Jean–well enough to deliver exactly that. In our conversation, we talk about how the book came about, how it was received, and what press coverage was like for women’s tennis in 1973. We also discuss how Billie Jean King has changed in the last half-century, the difficulty of covering tennis in such an intimate way today, and what it would take to write a behind-the-scenes look at a contemporary player such as Serena Williams.

If you have any interest at all in tennis in the 1970s, you should read A Long Way, Baby. It is out of print, but used copies are readily available. You can also read it on the web at the Internet Archive.

Carl Bialik and I also discussed the book in Episode 112, and it was a key part of the research for my Tennis 128 essay on Rosie Casals.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 23 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use the feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Podcast Episode 112: Carl Bialik on Rosie Casals and A Long Way, Baby

In this episode, Tennis Abstract Podcast veteran Carl Bialik joins me to talk about 1970s women’s tennis. The occasion for the discussion is the 115th player on my Tennis 128 list, Rosie Casals, and we also (sort of) bring back the book club to talk about Grace Lichtenstein’s 1974 book, A Long Way, Baby: Behind the Scenes in Women’s Pro Tennis.

Carl and I talk about whether the 2020s game would allow for such an insider’s account of a year on tour, why players seem less unique than Rosie and her peers did, and whether Casals’s reputation does her justice. We consider whether today’s game would be better off with top players who are more committed to competing week-in, week-out, whether 1970s-style barnstorming would open up new markets for tennis, and why Margaret Court got massacred on Mother’s Day when Billie Jean King straight-setted the same opponent a few months later. Also, Carl asks me a few questions about The Tennis 128 so far.

A Long Way, Baby–which I highly recommend–is long out of print, but used copies are readily available. You can also read it on the web at the Internet Archive.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 72 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use the feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Podcast Episode 111: Tim Böseler on Michael Stich and Serve-and-Volley Tennis

Tim Böseler is a senior editor at Germany’s Tennis Magazin, where he writes about all things tennis. Tim joins me for the latest episode of the Tennis Abstract Podcast to talk about Michael Stich, the man ranked 123rd on my Tennis 128 list.

We discuss the German tennis scene before Stich arrived, how Stich was more than just another serve-and-volleyer, and the nature of Michael’s relationship with Boris Becker–not a close one, but one that allowed them to team up to win a gold medal.

We also get into the serve and volley and the strategy’s best-known current exponent, Maxime Cressy. We talk s-and-v strategy, both for guys like Cressy and for other players who might benefit from mixing it up a little bit more. Finally, we dig into the nuts and bolts of how the German tennis federation works, and how it is changing.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 45 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use the feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Podcast Episode 110: Carl Bialik on Stan Wawrinka

Long-time Tennis Abstract Podcast favorite Carl Bialik joins me to discuss player #127 on The Tennis 128, Stan Wawrinka.

We consider how Wawrinka improved so late in his career, what role Magnus Norman played in the transformation, how good the backhand really is, how he might have fared in other eras, and much more.

It’s not all Stan: we start by recapping some highlights from the Australian Open, particularly the domination of Ashleigh Barty and the difficulty of forecasting a return to form such as the one we saw from Rafael Nadal. If you’ve had enough Australian Open talk by now, feel free to skip to start of the Wawrinka discussion at the 28:15 mark.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 54 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use the feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Podcast Episode 109: Joe Posnanski on the Australian Open and GOAT Lists

The podcast returns for 2022 from a long layoff to welcome back Joe Posnanski, author of the Baseball 100 and many other wonderful books. Joe covers all sports on Substack, where you can subscribe, even if he doesn’t write about tennis as much as he ought to.

We start by talking about all things Australian Open–what it means for Rafa’s case as the greatest of all time, if we’ll ever forget about the saga that kept Djokovic out of the tournament, how Daniil Medvedev stacks up against the rest of the field, whether Ashleigh Barty is pulling away from the WTA pack, and which other women we’re expecting to see emerge to challenge her.

We also dive into the general subject of Greatest-of-All-Time lists, the subject of Joe’s book, his current American football project, and my just-launched Tennis 128. We consider how tennis greatness differs from that of other sports, how to handle career gaps such as wars and injuries, and balancing algorithms with gut feelings. We wrap up by giving Joe a speed round of tennis GOAT questions, one toughie after another asking him to untangle the trickiest debates in the sport’s history.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 91 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use the feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Podcast Episode 108: Gerry Marzorati on Serena Williams and Tennis Coverage in the 21st Century

My latest episode features Gerry Marzorati, author of the new book Seeing Serena. You might also know him from the pages of The New York and Racquet magazine, as well as his earlier book, Late to the Ball.

The book follows Serena Williams throughout the 2019 season as she seeks her first grand slam title as a mother. We talk about the challenges and opportunities of getting to know players through press conferences, the role of print media when players can speak directly to their fans, and how Serena compares to other mega-icons. Gerry expands on his contention in the book that Williams is the most consequential player in tennis today–perhaps of all time–as someone that not only set records, but changed the way the game was played.

Gerry’s book is a rewarding read, a deep dive into one of the most important and fascinating figures in sports. Check it out.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 58 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 107: Book Club: Sudden Death, by Alvaro Enrigue

Episode 107 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, is our fourth book club episode, a discussion of Alvaro Enrigue’s novel, Sudden Death.

The book is set around the year 1600, and a central feature is a real tennis match between the Italian painter Caravaggio and the Spanish poet Francisco de Quevedo. Enrigue is fascinated by the various ways tennis pops up in the documentary record of the era, a mix of high and low culture, cutting across continents and national borders.

The novel is digressive, so we follow suit and stray far afield from the contents of the book itself. Carl and I get into the advantages and difficulties of writing blow-by-blow descriptions of points, how many numbers is too many numbers, the various ways theatrical productions depict tennis, and why tennis fans seem so insecure.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this episode is about 52 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.