Forecasting – Page 9 – Heavy Topspin

2012 Miami Projections: Fourth Round

Men’s tennis may be predictable these days, but it’s not that predictable. Andy Roddick beat Roger Federer last night, handing Federer his first loss in a best-of-three since August, sending home the hottest player in the game. (It’s also Fed’s first lost to anyone outside of the top 20 in almost two years. The last one was his 2010 loss to Lleyton Hewitt in Halle.) Federer’s exit makes life easier for Novak Djokovic, who would’ve faced Fed in the semis, and does an even bigger favor for Mardy Fish, who would’ve played Roger in the quarters.

11 of the top 16 seeds are still alive, but things have definitely gotten more interesting.

Player                        QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          80.5%  56.5%  45.4%  30.0%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        19.5%   7.2%   3.6%   1.2%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  62.6%  25.2%  17.1%   8.7%  
(5)David Ferrer            37.4%  11.1%   6.2%   2.4%  

(31)Andy Roddick           55.6%  25.6%   6.8%   2.2%  
(21)Juan Monaco            44.4%  18.0%   4.0%   1.1%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        41.0%  21.0%   5.4%   1.6%  
(8)Mardy Fish              59.0%  35.5%  11.5%   4.5%  

Player                        QF     SF      F      W  
Grigor Dimitrov            35.3%   7.7%   1.8%   0.4%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        64.7%  21.5%   7.4%   2.5%  
(13)Gilles Simon           27.0%  14.9%   5.2%   1.7%  
(4)Andy Murray             73.0%  55.9%  32.5%  17.9%  

(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      65.4%  29.2%  14.9%   6.7%  
(19)Florian Mayer          34.6%  10.5%   3.8%   1.2%  
(16)Kei Nishikori          31.4%  14.9%   6.5%   2.5%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            68.6%  45.4%  27.9%  15.5%

2012 Miami Projections: 3rd Round

The 2nd round went almost precisely according to script, leaving us with some high-profile matchups for a mere third round. The closest third-rounders on paper (my paper, anyway) are Almagro/Verdasco and Tipsarevic/Dolgopolov. While Federer and (particularly) Murray have big-serving challenges this round, Djokovic and Nadal are set to coast. The only question is: How many games will Novak allow Troicki to win this time?

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          85.0%  70.8%  52.1%    25.2%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         15.0%   7.3%   2.5%     0.2%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        79.2%  20.0%   8.4%     1.1%  
Albert Ramos               20.8%   1.9%   0.3%     0.0%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  67.7%  45.2%  20.0%     6.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            32.3%  15.9%   4.7%     0.6%  
(30)Julien Benneteau       36.1%  11.0%   2.6%     0.2%  
(5)David Ferrer            63.9%  27.9%   9.4%     1.6%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(3)Roger Federer           75.0%  52.3%  38.6%    12.3%  
(31)Andy Roddick           25.0%  11.1%   5.4%     0.5%  
(21)Juan Monaco            33.2%   9.0%   3.9%     0.3%  
(14)Gael Monfils           66.8%  27.7%  16.8%     2.9%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        50.8%  23.0%   7.5%     0.7%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      49.2%  21.8%   7.0%     0.6%  
(28)Kevin Anderson         38.7%  18.7%   5.8%     0.5%  
(8)Mardy Fish              61.3%  36.5%  15.0%     2.2%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           74.7%  47.0%  23.3%     4.7%  
Grigor Dimitrov            25.3%   9.0%   2.2%     0.1%  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    48.8%  21.1%   7.8%     0.8%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        51.2%  23.0%   8.7%     1.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon           57.8%  19.2%   8.8%     1.0%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          42.2%  11.3%   4.3%     0.3%  
(26)Milos Raonic           27.1%  14.5%   6.8%     0.8%  
(4)Andy Murray             72.9%  54.9%  38.1%    12.1%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      68.1%  40.5%  19.5%     4.4%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  31.9%  13.1%   4.2%     0.4%  
(19)Florian Mayer          39.8%  16.2%   5.5%     0.6%  
(10)John Isner             60.2%  30.2%  13.0%     2.4%  
(16)Kei Nishikori          77.3%  29.0%  14.1%     2.3%  
Lukas Rosol                22.7%   3.9%   0.9%     0.0%  
(25)Radek Stepanek         16.0%   5.7%   1.6%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            84.0%  61.5%  41.2%    13.9%

2012 Miami Projections: 2nd Round

Every 2nd-rounder in Miami is between a seed and a non-seed, so we’re on full-time upset watch for the next two days. (Barring withdrawals, anyway.) There are plenty to keep an eye out for:

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Viktor Troicki. Troicki has never been a very convincing seed, and GGL is coming off of a big win over Andy Murray at Indian Wells. Qualifiers don’t come any tougher than the Spainard.
Bernard Tomic vs David Ferrer. The surface is on Tomic’s side; everything else tilts to Ferrer. But my algorithm like’s the Aussie’s chances, setting the match awfully close to equal.
Nicolas Almagro vs David Goffin. 62/38 usually doesn’t qualify as an upset-in-the-making. This one’s closer than I would’ve expected, thanks to Almagro’s inconsistency on hardcourts. Goffin doesn’t have much in the way of weapons, but that didn’t stop him from taking out Donald Young yesterday.
Kevin Anderson vs Sam Querrey. Almost dead-even. As if you didn’t already one this one would be decided in two or three tiebreaks.
David Nalbandian vs Janko Tipsarevic. In case you ever need an example of when ATP rankings aren’t enough. My algorithm gives Nalbandian the slight edge; I have to imagine that any fan would give the Argentine a bigger one.
Nikolay Davydenko vs John Isner. I have this one set at 69/31 in Isner’s favor, but Davydenko does have the sort of game that gives the big man trouble.

Here’s the full table:

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          79.9%  68.5%  57.5%    21.5%  
Marcos Baghdatis           20.1%  12.1%   7.0%     0.5%  
(q)Guillermo Garcia Lopez  46.0%   8.3%   3.8%     0.1%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         54.0%  11.0%   5.4%     0.2%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        65.6%  40.8%  12.6%     0.9%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe        34.4%  16.3%   3.3%     0.1%  
Albert Ramos               25.6%   6.5%   0.8%     0.0%  
(15)Feliciano Lopez        74.4%  36.4%   9.5%     0.4%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  77.9%  56.3%  38.7%     6.0%  
Ivo Karlovic               22.1%   9.8%   3.8%     0.1%  
Igor Kunitsyn              22.3%   3.7%   0.9%     0.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            77.7%  30.3%  15.6%     0.8%  
(30)Julien Benneteau       63.0%  24.0%   8.3%     0.2%  
Benjamin Becker            37.0%   9.8%   2.5%     0.0%  
Bernard Tomic              45.7%  29.3%  12.7%     0.7%  
(5)David Ferrer            54.3%  36.9%  17.6%     1.3%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(3)Roger Federer           81.7%  64.4%  46.7%    12.2%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison          18.3%   8.4%   3.2%     0.1%  
Gilles Muller              30.2%   5.3%   1.6%     0.0%  
(31)Andy Roddick           69.8%  21.9%  10.5%     0.6%  
(21)Juan Monaco            65.0%  26.0%   8.0%     0.3%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                35.0%   9.4%   1.9%     0.0%  
(q)Sergei Bubka            18.9%   7.0%   1.4%     0.0%  
(14)Gael Monfils           81.1%  57.6%  26.6%     3.2%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        62.1%  35.3%  17.3%     0.7%  
(q)David Goffin            37.9%  17.3%   6.3%     0.1%  
(q)Bjorn Phau              24.9%   7.1%   1.8%     0.0%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      75.1%  40.2%  19.1%     0.7%  
(28)Kevin Anderson         51.3%  23.3%  12.1%     0.4%  
Sam Querrey                48.7%  21.6%  11.0%     0.3%  
(q)Frank Dancevic          23.9%   8.1%   2.9%     0.0%  
(8)Mardy Fish              76.1%  47.1%  29.5%     2.1%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           81.5%  63.9%  40.1%     4.6%  
Nicolas Mahut              18.5%   8.8%   2.5%     0.0%  
Grigor Dimitrov            74.3%  23.6%   8.6%     0.1%  
(29)Juan Ignacio Chela     25.7%   3.7%   0.6%     0.0%  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    83.4%  40.1%  19.0%     1.0%  
(q)Antonio Veic            16.6%   2.5%   0.4%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian           51.3%  29.6%  15.0%     0.9%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        48.7%  27.8%  13.7%     0.7%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(13)Gilles Simon           73.8%  45.2%  16.6%     1.1%  
(q)Roberto Bautista Agut   26.2%   9.5%   1.8%     0.0%  
Robin Haase                40.9%  16.4%   3.7%     0.1%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          59.1%  28.9%   8.8%     0.3%  
(26)Milos Raonic           79.5%  26.2%  15.1%     0.9%  
(q)Arnaud Clement          20.5%   2.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla            14.1%   5.2%   2.0%     0.0%  
(4)Andy Murray             85.9%  65.9%  51.4%    12.6%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      79.2%  57.5%  36.3%     4.6%  
Xavier Malisse             20.8%   8.8%   2.7%     0.0%  
Frederico Gil              22.4%   3.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  77.6%  30.1%  13.6%     0.5%  
(19)Florian Mayer          58.7%  26.8%  12.0%     0.6%  
Ivan Dodig                 41.3%  15.7%   5.8%     0.1%  
Nikolay Davydenko          31.4%  14.0%   5.1%     0.1%  
(10)John Isner             68.6%  43.5%  23.7%     2.2%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(16)Kei Nishikori          67.7%  44.1%  18.9%     1.7%  
Lukas Lacko                32.3%  15.3%   4.3%     0.1%  
Lukas Rosol                30.8%   8.6%   1.8%     0.0%  
(24)Marcel Granollers      69.2%  32.0%  11.0%     0.5%  
(25)Radek Stepanek         81.6%  17.4%   6.4%     0.1%  
Tommy Haas                 18.4%   1.1%   0.1%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo           17.9%  10.6%   4.4%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            82.2%  70.9%  53.1%    13.2%

2012 Miami Masters Projections

This week, the semifinals are swapped: If Federer is to continue his streak, he’ll need to go through Djokovic just to reach the final. The most dangerous lower-ranked players seem to be well distributed throughout the draw: Del Potro would face Djokovic in the quarters; Roddick could hit Federer in the third; Raonic could face Murray in the third, and Isner is lurking in Nadal’s quarter.

If Fernando Gonzalez wants to make a run in his final tournament, he’ll have to go through Tomas Berdych in the second round–not exactly the easiest ask, even at the South American slam.

Here are the complete projections for the draw as it stands now, without qualifiers placed:

Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          100.0%  82.4%  71.6%    22.5%  
Leonardo Mayer              17.5%   0.9%   0.2%     0.0%  
Marcos Baghdatis            82.5%  16.8%  10.6%     0.4%  
Qualifier1                  49.9%  16.7%   2.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier2                  50.1%  16.5%   1.9%     0.0%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         100.0%  66.8%  13.7%     0.3%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(17)Richard Gasquet        100.0%  67.7%  42.0%     0.9%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe         55.5%  19.2%   9.0%     0.1%  
Flavio Cipolla              44.5%  13.1%   5.5%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos-Vinolas        42.0%  10.7%   2.7%     0.0%  
Qualifier3                  58.0%  18.6%   5.9%     0.0%  
(15)Feliciano Lopez        100.0%  70.6%  34.9%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  100.0%  79.0%  57.1%     6.0%  
Lukasz Kubot                45.8%   9.0%   3.7%     0.0%  
Ivo Karlovic                54.2%  12.0%   5.2%     0.0%  
Igor Kunitsyn               42.4%   9.1%   1.6%     0.0%  
(WC)Jesse Levine            57.6%  16.0%   3.3%     0.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            100.0%  74.9%  29.1%     0.7%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(30)Julien Benneteau       100.0%  61.7%  24.6%     0.2%  
Benjamin Becker             47.4%  17.5%   5.1%     0.0%  
Olivier Rochus              52.6%  20.8%   6.1%     0.0%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           34.2%  10.4%   4.9%     0.0%  
Bernard Tomic               65.8%  30.0%  19.0%     0.5%  
(5)David Ferrer            100.0%  59.6%  40.4%     1.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(3)Roger Federer           100.0%  84.8%  66.5%    12.4%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison           77.5%  13.9%   6.5%     0.1%  
Potito Starace              22.5%   1.4%   0.3%     0.0%  
Alex Bogomolov              54.9%  18.9%   3.7%     0.0%  
Gilles Muller               45.1%  13.6%   2.3%     0.0%  
(31)Andy Roddick           100.0%  67.5%  20.6%     0.6%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(21)Juan Monaco            100.0%  61.3%  23.9%     0.3%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 43.1%  15.1%   3.9%     0.0%  
Jarkko Nieminen             56.9%  23.6%   7.5%     0.0%  
Qualifier4                  31.8%   6.2%   2.3%     0.0%  
Ernests Gulbis              68.2%  23.7%  13.1%     0.2%  
(14)Gael Monfils           100.0%  70.1%  49.3%     2.6%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        100.0%  64.3%  36.5%     0.7%  
Qualifier5                  38.3%  11.1%   4.1%     0.0%  
Donald Young                61.7%  24.6%  11.6%     0.1%  
Qualifier6                  66.9%  20.1%   6.7%     0.0%  
Carlos Berlocq              33.1%   5.8%   1.2%     0.0%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      100.0%  74.1%  40.0%     0.7%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(28)Kevin Anderson         100.0%  54.9%  24.6%     0.4%  
Sam Querrey                 59.2%  28.9%  12.5%     0.2%  
Matthew Ebden               40.8%  16.3%   5.8%     0.0%  
Qualifier7                  37.2%   8.2%   2.7%     0.0%  
Jeremy Chardy               62.8%  20.6%   9.3%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish              100.0%  71.2%  45.1%     2.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           100.0%  83.6%  65.0%     5.0%  
Nicolas Mahut               85.8%  15.9%   7.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Fernando Gonzalez       14.2%   0.5%   0.1%     0.0%  
Grigor Dimitrov             47.7%  35.6%  11.0%     0.1%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           52.3%  39.8%  13.2%     0.1%  
(29)Juan Ignacio Chela     100.0%  24.5%   3.4%     0.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    100.0%  69.7%  35.0%     0.8%  
Qualifier8                  43.4%  11.8%   3.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla             56.6%  18.5%   6.2%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian            66.0%  34.0%  19.7%     0.6%  
Steve Darcis                34.0%  11.9%   4.9%     0.0%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        100.0%  54.1%  30.8%     0.8%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(13)Gilles Simon           100.0%  66.6%  41.5%     0.9%  
Qualifier9                  36.5%   9.4%   3.5%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi               63.5%  24.0%  12.2%     0.1%  
Robin Haase                 58.0%  24.0%   9.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Marinko Matosevic       42.0%  14.0%   4.4%     0.0%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          100.0%  62.0%  29.1%     0.3%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(26)Milos Raonic           100.0%  69.3%  23.2%     0.8%  
Dudi Sela                   59.0%  20.0%   4.3%     0.0%  
Qualifier10                 41.0%  10.7%   1.7%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla             42.5%   6.0%   2.2%     0.0%  
Denis Istomin               57.5%  10.7%   4.6%     0.1%  
(4)Andy Murray             100.0%  83.3%  64.0%    12.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      100.0%  80.8%  57.6%     4.5%  
Qualifier11                 43.8%   7.4%   2.5%     0.0%  
Xavier Malisse              56.2%  11.8%   4.8%     0.0%  
Thomaz Bellucci             70.8%  28.9%   9.0%     0.1%  
Frederico Gil               29.2%   6.5%   1.1%     0.0%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  100.0%  64.5%  24.9%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(19)Florian Mayer          100.0%  60.2%  27.7%     0.6%  
Philipp Petzschner          45.4%  17.0%   5.9%     0.0%  
Ivan Dodig                  54.6%  22.7%   8.7%     0.1%  
Nikolay Davydenko           59.5%  18.7%   8.4%     0.1%  
James Blake                 40.5%   9.7%   3.5%     0.0%  
(10)John Isner             100.0%  71.6%  45.8%     2.2%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(16)Kei Nishikori          100.0%  70.2%  44.6%     1.7%  
Ryan Sweeting               42.7%  11.3%   4.4%     0.0%  
Lukas Lacko                 57.3%  18.5%   8.4%     0.1%  
Michael Llodra              63.8%  27.7%  11.2%     0.1%  
Lukas Rosol                 36.2%  11.0%   3.1%     0.0%  
(24)Marcel Granollers      100.0%  61.3%  28.3%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(25)Radek Stepanek         100.0%  64.8%  13.3%     0.1%  
Qualifier12                 75.1%  30.6%   4.8%     0.0%  
Tommy Haas                  24.9%   4.6%   0.3%     0.0%  
Pablo Andujar               28.6%   2.3%   0.9%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo            71.4%  12.7%   7.4%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            100.0%  84.9%  73.3%    14.0%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Quarterfinals

A couple of days ago, I wrote about how the cluster of players after the big four was itself cementing its hold on the next few ranking spots. Since then, Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga have all lost. Oops!

Of that group, only Juan Martin del Potro has survived, and according to my numbers, he poses a serious challenge to Roger Federer tomorrow. But that isn’t the tightest match. That honor goes to Isner/Simon, the most dramatic contrast of playing styles in the quarterfinals. They’ve played once before, at last year’s US Open, when Isner won in four sets, including three tiebreaks. It was even closer than it sounds–Simon won more than half of the points that day.

Here are the full odds for the rest of the tournament:

Player                       SF      F      W
(1)Novak Djokovic         84.8%  69.0%  44.5%
(12)Nicolas Almagro       15.2%   6.7%   1.6%
(13)Gilles Simon          48.1%  11.5%   3.4%
(11)John Isner            51.9%  12.8%   4.0%  

(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  44.6%  21.0%   8.9%
(3)Roger Federer          55.4%  29.2%  13.9%
David Nalbandian          23.3%   6.5%   1.8%
(2)Rafael Nadal           76.7%  43.2%  21.9%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Round of 16

As big days in men’s tennis go, Super Wednesday at Indian Wells is right up there. Six of the top ten are in action, along with ten other guys, some of whom belong here. According to my simulations, it is increasingly Novak Djokovic’s tournament to win. At the very least, it’s Novak’s quarterfinal to reach.

Player                       QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         95.6%  72.6%  60.6%  40.4%  
Pablo Andujar              4.4%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       31.4%   5.7%   2.7%   0.8%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          68.6%  21.1%  14.1%   6.3%  
                                                      
Ryan Harrison             39.7%  17.5%   3.2%   0.7%  
(13)Gilles Simon          60.3%  32.8%   8.0%   2.6%  
(11)John Isner            70.8%  39.5%  10.1%   3.4%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          29.2%  10.1%   1.3%   0.2%  
                                                      
Player                       QF     SF      F      W  
Denis Istomin             23.4%   6.1%   1.5%   0.3%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  76.6%  38.9%  19.2%   8.3%  
Thomaz Bellucci           17.5%   4.6%   0.9%   0.2%  
(3)Roger Federer          82.5%  50.4%  27.7%  13.5%  
                                                      
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     67.3%  30.4%  14.7%   6.0%  
David Nalbandian          32.7%   9.6%   3.0%   0.8%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   25.0%  10.1%   3.3%   1.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           75.0%  49.9%  29.7%  15.3%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Round of 32

Andy Murray is out, and the clear winner is … Novak Djokovic. Djokovic’s chances of winning the tournament leapt to 36.2%, almost triple Nadal’s. The Djokovic factor produces an interesting quirk: the only two players of the remaining 32 whose chances round to 0.0% play each other in the 3rd round. One of them, of course, is guaranteed to reach the round of 16, but their chances of beating Djokovic (or Kevin Anderson, come to that) are awfully small.

Aside from the top seeds, there aren’t many overwhelming favorites this round, according to my odds. It often seems to happen that way at Masters and even Grand Slam events–there’s a slew of compelling matchups in the third and fourth rounds, then in the quarters, we watch the top seeds rip apart guys outside of the top four.

Here are the odds for today’s and tomorrow’ matches:

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         85.8%  81.6%  64.4%    36.2%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        14.2%  10.8%   4.2%     0.5%  
Pablo Andujar             45.9%   3.2%   0.5%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos              54.1%   4.3%   0.8%     0.0%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       58.4%  21.2%   5.1%     0.7%  
Santiago Giraldo          41.7%  12.0%   2.3%     0.2%  
(30)Andy Roddick          35.8%  20.8%   5.6%     1.0%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          64.2%  46.0%  17.0%     5.2%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez    48.2%  16.8%   6.1%     0.3%  
Ryan Harrison             51.8%  19.1%   7.3%     0.4%  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    55.0%  36.4%  19.4%     2.4%  
(13)Gilles Simon          45.0%  27.6%  13.4%     1.4%  
(11)John Isner            57.3%  28.5%  15.3%     1.6%  
(22)Juan Monaco           42.7%  18.4%   8.6%     0.7%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          24.2%   7.8%   2.6%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish             75.8%  45.2%  27.4%     4.1%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(5)David Ferrer           69.0%  32.2%  15.2%     2.5%  
Denis Istomin             31.0%   8.9%   2.7%     0.2%  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     30.6%  13.9%   5.3%     0.5%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  69.4%  45.1%  25.3%     6.3%  
Nikolay Davydenko         57.8%  15.9%   5.4%     0.4%  
Thomaz Bellucci           42.3%   9.3%   2.6%     0.1%  
(27)Milos Raonic          31.2%  19.9%   8.9%     1.2%  
(3)Roger Federer          68.8%  54.8%  34.6%    10.3%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     76.9%  50.1%  25.0%     5.9%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        23.1%   8.2%   2.0%     0.1%  
David Nalbandian          44.8%  17.6%   5.9%     0.7%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      55.2%  24.1%   9.3%     1.3%  
Marcos Baghdatis          53.5%  18.4%   8.5%     1.2%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   46.5%  14.7%   6.3%     0.7%  
(26)Marcel Granollers     24.5%  11.4%   4.8%     0.6%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           75.5%  55.5%  38.1%    13.2%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Field of 64

When I initially posted odds for Indian Wells, the qualifiers weren’t placed. In the space of a couple days, the draw was filled out, and then most of the qualifiers were gone. Frederico Gil, Marinko Matosevic, and Andrey Golubev got from qualifying to the second round, but they faced other qualifiers in the first round. The only other qualifying survivor was Matthew Ebden, who advanced past the always-beatable Igor Kunitsyn.

With the big names, little has changed–after all, the top 32 have yet to play a match. The simulation is just a little more nuanced, now that the actual rating of each player is included.

Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         89.6%  75.8%  62.3%    25.8%  
(Q)Andrey Golubev         10.4%   4.1%   1.5%     0.0%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber     53.7%  11.4%   5.5%     0.3%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        46.3%   8.8%   3.9%     0.2%  
(18)Florian Mayer         82.7%  44.6%  12.4%     0.9%  
Pablo Andujar             17.3%   3.7%   0.3%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos              18.4%   4.7%   0.4%     0.0%  
Richard Gasquet           81.6%  47.0%  13.7%     1.1%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       51.3%  21.9%   9.0%     0.3%  
(WC)Sam Querrey           48.7%  19.9%   7.9%     0.2%  
Santiago Giraldo          28.6%  12.1%   4.0%     0.1%  
(17)Kei Nishikori         71.4%  46.1%  25.2%     2.2%  
(30)Andy Roddick          64.6%  27.3%  13.5%     0.6%  
Lukasz Kubot              35.4%  10.5%   3.8%     0.1%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky         24.8%  10.5%   3.8%     0.1%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          75.2%  51.7%  32.8%     3.8%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(4)Andy Murray            80.7%  62.3%  44.5%     9.7%  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez    19.3%   8.5%   3.3%     0.1%  
Ryan Harrison             44.2%  11.8%   4.8%     0.1%  
(25)Viktor Troicki        55.8%  17.4%   8.0%     0.3%  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    84.0%  50.8%  22.5%     1.9%  
(WC)Robby Ginepri         16.0%   3.8%   0.6%     0.0%  
Dudi Sela                 33.8%  11.8%   3.2%     0.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon          66.2%  33.6%  13.2%     0.8%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(11)John Isner            84.1%  52.4%  27.7%     1.5%  
(LL)Federico Gil          15.9%   3.9%   0.7%     0.0%  
Nicolas Mahut             34.4%  11.8%   3.8%     0.0%  
(22)Juan Monaco           65.6%  31.9%  14.7%     0.5%  
(32)Julien Benneteau      63.7%  26.7%  12.9%     0.4%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          36.3%  10.7%   3.7%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi             32.2%  16.3%   7.3%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish             67.8%  46.3%  29.1%     2.4%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(5)David Ferrer           70.0%  51.3%  25.6%     2.1%  
Grigor Dimitrov           30.0%  16.5%   5.2%     0.1%  
Denis Istomin             73.6%  27.5%   8.9%     0.2%  
(31)Juan Ignacio Chela    26.4%   4.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     65.3%  24.1%  12.1%     0.5%  
Ryan Sweeting             34.7%   8.6%   3.1%     0.0%  
(Q)Marinko Matosevic      14.3%   4.6%   1.3%     0.0%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  85.7%  62.8%  43.2%     6.4%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(14)Gael Monfils          69.1%  48.2%  23.2%     2.7%  
Nikolay Davydenko         30.9%  15.8%   4.8%     0.1%  
Thomaz Bellucci           39.1%  11.8%   3.0%     0.0%  
(20)Jurgen Melzer         60.9%  24.2%   8.2%     0.3%  
(27)Milos Raonic          86.8%  32.7%  16.9%     1.1%  
Carlos Berlocq            13.2%   1.3%   0.2%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla           16.6%   6.0%   1.9%     0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer          83.4%  60.1%  41.8%     8.5%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     72.4%  56.4%  36.9%     4.8%  
Michael Llodra            27.6%  15.9%   6.7%     0.2%  
Xavier Malisse            47.2%  12.7%   4.3%     0.0%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        52.8%  15.0%   5.4%     0.1%  
(24)Marin Cilic           54.8%  30.7%  15.1%     0.8%  
David Nalbandian          45.2%  23.2%  10.3%     0.4%  
Gilles Muller             26.5%   7.6%   2.2%     0.0%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      73.5%  38.4%  19.2%     1.1%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(15)Feliciano Lopez       42.6%  21.8%   6.6%     0.3%  
Marcos Baghdatis          57.4%  33.5%  12.0%     0.9%  
Steve Darcis              35.9%  12.8%   2.9%     0.1%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   64.1%  31.9%  10.6%     0.6%  
(26)Marcel Granollers     91.1%  25.9%  13.0%     0.7%  
Tommy Haas                 8.9%   0.4%   0.0%     0.0%  
Leonardo Mayer             7.4%   1.8%   0.4%     0.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           92.7%  71.9%  54.5%    14.3%

2012 Indian Wells Draw Predictions

The Indian Wells draw is out. With my latest hard-court rankings, I’ve run simulations on the draw. Qualifiers aren’t yet placed, so I set all of the qualifiers equal to the 100th-ranked player.

I’d like to have some flashy, controversial projections, but the numbers don’t look much different than they did before the Australian Open. Djokovic has a 27% chance of winning, Nadal 13.2%, with Murray a bit ahead of Federer. Murray not only rates a bit higher in my ranking system after his latest win over Novak, but he has a somewhat easier draw here.

Here are the full projections:

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         100.0%  92.2%  78.9%    27.2%  
Qualifier1                 50.0%   3.9%   1.3%     0.0%  
Qualifier2                 50.0%   3.9%   1.3%     0.0%  
Matthias Bachinger         34.5%  13.1%   1.7%     0.0%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber      65.5%  35.2%   7.3%     0.2%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        100.0%  51.6%   9.5%     0.2%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(18)Florian Mayer         100.0%  69.5%  37.6%     0.7%  
Robin Haase                72.5%  25.8%  10.4%     0.0%  
Pablo Andujar              27.5%   4.7%   1.0%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos               36.8%   6.7%   1.6%     0.0%  
(WC)Jesse Levine           63.2%  17.8%   6.3%     0.0%  
Richard Gasquet           100.0%  75.5%  43.1%     1.0%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       100.0%  56.8%  23.8%     0.3%  
Qualifier3                 33.1%  10.6%   2.8%     0.0%  
(WC)Sam Querrey            66.9%  32.6%  13.1%     0.1%  
Santiago Giraldo           80.6%  23.1%  10.2%     0.1%  
(WC)Jack Sock              19.4%   1.8%   0.3%     0.0%  
(17)Kei Nishikori         100.0%  75.1%  49.8%     2.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(30)Andy Roddick          100.0%  62.1%  26.4%     0.6%  
Ivo Karlovic               54.8%  22.0%   7.4%     0.1%  
Lukasz Kubot               45.2%  15.9%   4.6%     0.0%  
Alex Bogomolov Jr.         48.3%  11.3%   4.6%     0.0%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky          51.7%  12.8%   5.3%     0.0%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          100.0%  75.8%  51.7%     3.8%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(4)Andy Murray            100.0%  83.3%  64.7%    10.0%  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez     80.3%  15.5%   7.3%     0.1%  
Rui Machado                19.7%   1.2%   0.2%     0.0%  
Flavio Cipolla             40.2%  13.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
Ryan Harrison              59.8%  26.5%   6.8%     0.1%  
(25)Viktor Troicki        100.0%  59.6%  18.2%     0.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    100.0%  79.2%  48.0%     1.8%  
Qualifier4                 61.7%  14.7%   4.9%     0.0%  
(WC)Robby Ginepri          38.3%   6.1%   1.5%     0.0%  
Qualifier5                 42.6%  11.7%   3.5%     0.0%  
Dudi Sela                  57.4%  19.3%   6.8%     0.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon          100.0%  69.1%  35.4%     0.8%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(11)John Isner            100.0%  73.7%  46.1%     1.2%  
Qualifier6                 50.0%  13.2%   5.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier7                 50.0%  13.1%   5.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier8                 48.0%  15.5%   5.0%     0.0%  
Nicolas Mahut              52.0%  17.8%   6.1%     0.0%  
(22)Juan Monaco           100.0%  66.7%  32.9%     0.4%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(32)Julien Benneteau      100.0%  69.1%  29.4%     0.4%  
Qualifier9                 54.2%  17.7%   4.7%     0.0%  
Igor Kunitsyn              45.8%  13.2%   3.1%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi              56.1%  18.0%   9.4%     0.1%  
Olivier Rochus             43.9%  12.0%   5.5%     0.0%  
(8)Mardy Fish             100.0%  70.0%  48.0%     2.5%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(5)David Ferrer           100.0%  67.6%  51.5%     2.2%  
Ivan Dodig                 54.9%  18.8%  11.7%     0.1%  
Grigor Dimitrov            45.1%  13.6%   7.9%     0.0%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                40.7%  26.7%   7.7%     0.0%  
Denis Istomin              59.3%  43.7%  16.0%     0.1%  
(31)Juan Ignacio Chela    100.0%  29.6%   5.2%     0.0%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     100.0%  62.3%  23.1%     0.4%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe        56.1%  22.5%   6.5%     0.0%  
Ryan Sweeting              43.9%  15.2%   3.8%     0.0%  
Qualifier10                50.1%   7.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
Qualifier11                49.9%   7.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  100.0%  84.2%  61.3%     6.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(14)Gael Monfils          100.0%  72.9%  51.1%     2.8%  
Nikolay Davydenko          65.9%  20.6%  10.7%     0.1%  
Qualifier12                34.1%   6.5%   2.4%     0.0%  
Lukas Rosol                42.2%  13.4%   3.2%     0.0%  
Thomaz Bellucci            57.8%  22.6%   6.9%     0.0%  
(20)Jurgen Melzer         100.0%  64.0%  25.6%     0.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(27)Milos Raonic          100.0%  74.4%  28.2%     1.0%  
Carlos Berlocq             26.0%   3.4%   0.3%     0.0%  
Benoit Paire               74.0%  22.2%   4.9%     0.0%  
Dmitry Tursunov            49.9%   8.4%   3.0%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla            50.1%   8.3%   3.0%     0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer          100.0%  83.4%  60.7%     8.7%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     100.0%  71.2%  56.0%     4.6%  
Michael Llodra             46.4%  12.6%   7.4%     0.1%  
Ernests Gulbis             53.6%  16.1%   9.9%     0.1%  
Xavier Malisse             56.9%  27.0%   7.2%     0.0%  
Qualifier13                43.1%  17.4%   3.7%     0.0%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        100.0%  55.6%  15.8%     0.1%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(24)Marin Cilic           100.0%  60.1%  30.6%     0.9%  
Potito Starac              17.1%   2.5%   0.4%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian           82.9%  37.4%  17.3%     0.3%  
Bernard Tomic              74.2%  38.0%  20.7%     0.7%  
Gilles Muller              25.8%   7.0%   2.1%     0.0%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      100.0%  55.0%  29.1%     0.9%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(15)Feliciano Lopez       100.0%  47.8%  24.2%     0.3%  
Jeremy Chardy              36.0%  15.5%   6.8%     0.0%  
Marcos Baghdatis           64.0%  36.7%  21.2%     0.6%  
Donald Young               54.1%  21.5%   9.0%     0.1%  
Steve Darcis               45.9%  16.6%   6.2%     0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   100.0%  61.9%  32.5%     0.7%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(26)Marcel Granollers     100.0%  67.6%  20.2%     0.6%  
Jarkko Nieminen            85.5%  31.1%   6.5%     0.0%  
Tommy Haas                 14.5%   1.3%   0.1%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla            68.3%  10.0%   3.9%     0.0%  
Leonardo Mayer             31.7%   2.4%   0.5%     0.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           100.0%  87.7%  68.8%    13.2%

(For those eagle-eyed readers, qualifiers don’t all have identical chances against each other because I’m running a Monte Carlo simulation, running the bracket 100,000 times. This method occasionally results in slight errors, or tiny changes from one simulation to the next.)

Australian Open Men’s Quarterfinal Projections

The field is down to eight. It still includes the top five seeds and seven of the top ten players in the game, so there’s still plenty of uncertainty. Novak Djokovic showed some chinks in the armor during yesterday’s match against Lleyton Hewitt; Rafael Nadal is never a lock on a hard court; Roger Federer has what may be the toughest quarterfinal draw of the top four; and despite a drubbing last time he played Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori is playing as well as ever.

Oddly enough for such a steady player, this is only David Ferrer‘s second grand slam quarterfinal since 2008 and just his sixth quarterfinal in 36 career slams. In his last slam quarter–Melbourne last year–he beat world number one Nadal. The odds will be even steeper against him this week.

Player                        SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          75.4%  49.2%  31.0%  
(5)David Ferrer            24.6%   9.6%   3.4%  
(4)Andy Murray             66.5%  30.9%  16.2%  
(24)Kei Nishikori          33.5%  10.4%   3.8%  

(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  36.0%  14.0%   4.9%  
(3)Roger Federer           64.0%  34.0%  16.4%  
(7)Tomas Berdych           36.6%  15.9%   6.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            63.4%  36.1%  18.3%