Forecasting – Page 9 – Heavy Topspin

2012 French Open Projections

Yesterday we saw who gained and lost from the French Open draw. Today we get to what you really care about: Each player’s odds of progressing through the tournament.

According to my ranking system, combined with the actual draw, this year’s favorite is … a tie. How’s that for a cop out–virtually even odds for Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, both with roughly 30% chances of winning the event. Roger Federer is in a distant third at 12%, with the unlikely Janko Tipsarevic far behind him in fourth with 5.7%. No one (including myself) cares much for Janko’s chances, but this is a man who has beaten both Djokovic and Tomas Berdych on clay. With the exception of David Ferrer (languishing as 8th favorite, below 3%), no one in the following pack has shown much clay-court consistency.

The highest-rated non-seeds are David Nalbandian, Thomaz Bellucci, and Marcos Baghdatis. Nalbandian, of course, has a probable second-rounder with Federer, but if he gets through it, he’ll have the benefits of Federer’s easy early-round draw. Baghdatis will have an early test in Nicolas Almagro, a man who is in form but may have spent his energy in the wrong French city. And Bellucci drew Viktor Troicki, one of the weakest seeds, despite the Serb’s strong showing in Dusseldorf this week.

The full odds are below. By Tuesday or Wednesday, I should have a page published that will update odds throughout the tournament.

    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
1   Novak Djokovic          96.6%  93.4%  88.1%    30.2%  
    Potito Starace           3.4%   1.8%   0.7%     0.0%  
    Blaz Kavcic             78.1%   4.5%   2.0%     0.0%  
WC  Lleyton Hewitt          21.9%   0.4%   0.1%     0.0%  
q   Filip Krajinovic        59.1%  18.6%   1.1%     0.0%  
q   Nicolas Devilder        40.9%   9.9%   0.4%     0.0%  
q   Michael Berrer          30.1%  17.8%   1.2%     0.0%  
30  Jurgen Melzer           69.9%  53.7%   6.5%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
22  Andreas Seppi           56.5%  33.5%  16.1%     0.0%  
    Nikolay Davydenko       43.5%  23.0%   9.8%     0.0%  
    Mikhail Kukushkin       49.4%  21.3%   8.4%     0.0%  
    Ernests Gulbis          50.6%  22.2%   8.9%     0.0%  
q   Igor Sijsling           51.1%  15.2%   6.2%     0.0%  
    Gilles Muller           48.9%  14.3%   5.7%     0.0%  
    Steve Darcis            24.1%  12.3%   5.1%     0.0%  
14  Fernando Verdasco       75.9%  58.2%  39.9%     0.2%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
11  Gilles Simon            73.8%  59.4%  32.4%     0.3%  
    Ryan Harrison           26.2%  15.7%   5.1%     0.0%  
    Xavier Malisse          70.7%  20.5%   6.0%     0.0%  
WC  Brian Baker             29.3%   4.4%   0.7%     0.0%  
    Pablo Andujar           57.2%  13.7%   4.5%     0.0%  
    Victor Hanescu          42.8%   8.3%   2.3%     0.0%  
    Flavio Cipolla          15.4%   7.4%   2.1%     0.0%  
18  Stanislas Wawrinka      84.6%  70.6%  46.8%     0.8%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
28  Viktor Troicki          41.9%  25.6%   6.2%     0.0%  
    Thomaz Bellucci         58.1%  39.7%  11.8%     0.0%  
    Fabio Fognini           54.9%  20.2%   3.9%     0.0%  
WC  Adrian Mannarino        45.1%  14.5%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Cedrik-Marcel Stebe     58.0%   9.3%   3.9%     0.0%  
    Joao Souza              42.0%   5.2%   1.8%     0.0%  
q   Andrey Kuznetsov        10.2%   5.1%   2.0%     0.0%  
5   Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      89.8%  80.5%  68.0%     4.5%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
3   Roger Federer           93.5%  81.7%  73.8%    12.0%  
    Tobias Kamke             6.5%   2.2%   0.8%     0.0%  
    Adrian Ungur            24.7%   2.0%   0.8%     0.0%  
    David Nalbandian        75.3%  14.1%   9.0%     0.1%  
    Frank Dancevic          43.6%  17.7%   2.1%     0.0%  
    Martin Klizan           56.4%  25.9%   3.8%     0.0%  
    Nicolas Mahut           27.8%  11.0%   1.0%     0.0%  
26  Andy Roddick            72.2%  45.4%   8.7%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
23  Radek Stepanek          46.6%  27.7%  13.2%     0.0%  
LL  David Goffin            53.4%  33.8%  17.3%     0.0%  
WC  Arnaud Clement          36.0%  10.9%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Alex Bogomolov Jr.      64.0%  27.5%  11.8%     0.0%  
    Karol Beck              33.9%   9.3%   3.1%     0.0%  
    Lukasz Kubot            66.1%  27.4%  13.6%     0.0%  
q   Florent Serra           26.0%  11.9%   4.7%     0.0%  
15  Feliciano Lopez         74.0%  51.4%  32.9%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
9   Juan Martin Del Potro   87.7%  78.8%  63.9%     3.2%  
    Albert Montanes         12.3%   6.7%   2.6%     0.0%  
    E. Roger-Vasselin       50.0%   7.3%   2.6%     0.0%  
    Vasek Pospisil          50.0%   7.2%   2.5%     0.0%  
    Juan Carlos Ferrero     63.6%  27.3%   6.6%     0.0%  
WC  J. Dasnieres De Veigy   36.4%  11.3%   2.0%     0.0%  
q   D. Munoz-De La Nava     21.4%   7.9%   1.2%     0.0%  
21  Marin Cilic             78.6%  53.5%  18.5%     0.1%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
31  Kevin Anderson          70.0%  50.1%  15.9%     0.0%  
    Rui Machado             30.0%  15.8%   2.9%     0.0%  
WC  Eric Prodon             41.2%  12.2%   1.8%     0.0%  
q   Horacio Zeballos        58.8%  21.9%   4.3%     0.0%  
    Michael Llodra          46.9%  10.0%   5.2%     0.0%  
    Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  53.1%  12.5%   6.8%     0.0%  
    Dudi Sela               12.3%   4.8%   2.1%     0.0%  
7   Tomas Berdych           87.7%  72.6%  61.0%     2.3%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
6   David Ferrer            84.0%  70.2%  55.9%     2.4%  
    Lukas Lacko             16.0%   7.8%   3.4%     0.0%  
    Benoit Paire            49.1%  10.7%   4.7%     0.0%  
    Albert Ramos            50.9%  11.2%   5.0%     0.0%  
    Ivan Dodig              56.2%  31.3%  10.5%     0.0%  
    Robin Haase             43.8%  21.6%   6.2%     0.0%  
    James Blake             31.1%  10.6%   2.0%     0.0%  
27  Mikhail Youzhny         68.9%  36.5%  12.2%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
20  Marcel Granollers       66.9%  44.7%  22.7%     0.1%  
q   Joao Sousa              33.1%  16.4%   5.9%     0.0%  
    Malek Jaziri            45.3%  16.6%   5.6%     0.0%  
    Philipp Petzschner      54.7%  22.3%   8.6%     0.0%  
WC  Paul-Henri Mathieu      50.0%  11.4%   3.7%     0.0%  
    Bjorn Phau              50.0%  11.4%   3.6%     0.0%  
q   Rogerio Dutra Silva     18.5%   9.7%   3.4%     0.0%  
10  John Isner              81.5%  67.5%  46.5%     0.5%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
16  Alexandr Dolgopolov     70.8%  58.8%  27.9%     0.2%  
    Sergiy Stakhovsky       29.3%  19.4%   5.7%     0.0%  
    Filippo Volandri        62.9%  15.5%   3.2%     0.0%  
q   Tommy Haas              37.1%   6.2%   0.9%     0.0%  
    Donald Young            43.2%   9.8%   3.8%     0.0%  
    Grigor DiMitrov         56.8%  15.5%   6.8%     0.0%  
q   Jurgen Zopp             17.8%   8.5%   3.3%     0.0%  
17  Richard Gasquet         82.2%  66.2%  48.5%     1.4%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
25  Bernard Tomic           73.8%  47.6%  17.1%     0.1%  
q   Andreas Haider-Maurer   26.2%  10.4%   1.9%     0.0%  
    Santiago Giraldo        63.3%  29.5%   8.5%     0.0%  
    Alejandro Falla         36.7%  12.5%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Jarkko Nieminen         48.3%   8.4%   3.2%     0.0%  
    Igor Andreev            51.7%   9.8%   3.8%     0.0%  
    Tatsuma Ito              8.9%   3.4%   0.9%     0.0%  
4   Andy Murray             91.1%  78.4%  62.1%     3.8%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
8   Janko Tipsarevic        82.5%  72.8%  64.6%     5.7%  
    Sam Querrey             17.5%  10.7%   6.7%     0.0%  
    Jeremy Chardy           64.0%  12.2%   6.9%     0.0%  
    Yen-Hsun Lu             36.0%   4.3%   1.8%     0.0%  
    Dmitry Tursunov         49.3%  17.2%   2.5%     0.0%  
    Go Soeda                50.7%  17.9%   2.5%     0.0%  
q   Mischa Zverev           34.1%  18.6%   3.1%     0.0%  
29  Julien Benneteau        65.9%  46.3%  11.8%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
24  Philipp Kohlschreiber   70.5%  47.1%  23.0%     0.1%  
    Matthew Ebden           29.5%  13.5%   3.9%     0.0%  
    Olivier Rochus          41.2%  14.2%   4.1%     0.0%  
    Leonardo Mayer          58.8%  25.1%   9.2%     0.0%  
    Juan Ignacio Chela      29.5%   9.0%   3.6%     0.0%  
    Marcos Baghdatis        70.5%  34.8%  21.1%     0.1%  
    Paolo Lorenzi           21.6%   7.0%   2.5%     0.0%  
12  Nicolas Almagro         78.4%  49.2%  32.5%     0.2%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
13  Juan Monaco             69.3%  48.7%  23.3%     0.1%  
WC  Guillaume Rufin         30.7%  15.7%   4.9%     0.0%  
    Lukas Rosol             52.5%  19.2%   6.0%     0.0%  
    Carlos Berlocq          47.5%  16.4%   4.9%     0.0%  
q   Jesse Levine            50.8%  10.1%   3.2%     0.0%  
    Benjamin Becker         49.2%   9.6%   2.9%     0.0%  
    Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo   13.4%   6.3%   1.8%     0.0%  
19  Milos Raonic            86.6%  74.0%  52.9%     0.6%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
32  Florian Mayer           71.3%  50.2%   7.5%     0.1%  
    Daniel Gimeno-Traver    28.7%  13.8%   1.0%     0.0%  
q   Eduardo Schwank         43.4%  14.2%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Ivo Karlovic            56.6%  21.8%   1.9%     0.0%  
    Igor Kunitsyn           31.7%   1.3%   0.4%     0.0%  
    Denis Istomin           68.3%   4.9%   2.2%     0.0%  
    Simone Bolelli           3.8%   1.8%   0.7%     0.0%  
2   Rafael Nadal            96.2%  92.1%  85.3%    30.4%

2012 Miami Projections: Semifinals

It’s three of the big four … and Juan Monaco. Pico has always been better on hard courts than he gets credit for, but after knocking out the former and current American #1s in successive rounds, he finds himself a little out of his depth.

Here are the odds for today’s semifinal matches:

Player                 F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic  84.9%  50.5%  
(21)Juan Monaco    15.1%   3.2%  
(4)Andy Murray     49.3%  22.7%  
(2)Rafael Nadal    50.7%  23.6%

Also, here are my probabilities for every possible final matchup. The number in each row is the percentage chance that the player on the left beats the player on the right. In other words, the top row says: “If Djokovic faces Murray, he has a 59.9% chance of winning.”

Player             Opponent            P(W)  
(1)Novak Djokovic  (4)Andy Murray     59.9%  
(1)Novak Djokovic  (2)Rafael Nadal    59.3%  
                                             
(21)Juan Monaco    (4)Andy Murray     21.2%  
(21)Juan Monaco    (2)Rafael Nadal    20.8%  
                                             
(4)Andy Murray     (1)Novak Djokovic  40.1%  
(4)Andy Murray     (21)Juan Monaco    78.8%  
                                             
(2)Rafael Nadal    (1)Novak Djokovic  40.7%  
(2)Rafael Nadal    (21)Juan Monaco    79.2%

2012 Miami Projections: Quarterfinals

For the second week in a row, Novak Djokovic gets the easy half, as someone cleared out his potential semifinal opponent. In the other half, Andy Murray gets the easy quarter while Nadal has to get past Tsonga. Here are my projections for these four matches and beyond:

Player                    SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic      76.5%  60.8%  38.5%  
(5)David Ferrer        23.5%  12.9%   4.5%  
(21)Juan Monaco        37.0%   7.5%   1.8%  
(8)Mardy Fish          63.0%  18.8%   6.6%  
                                            
(9)Janko Tipsarevic    27.1%   8.3%   2.5%  
(4)Andy Murray         72.9%  39.3%  20.4%  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga  38.7%  17.7%   7.4%  
(2)Rafael Nadal        61.3%  34.7%  18.3%

2012 Miami Projections: Fourth Round

Men’s tennis may be predictable these days, but it’s not that predictable. Andy Roddick beat Roger Federer last night, handing Federer his first loss in a best-of-three since August, sending home the hottest player in the game. (It’s also Fed’s first lost to anyone outside of the top 20 in almost two years. The last one was his 2010 loss to Lleyton Hewitt in Halle.) Federer’s exit makes life easier for Novak Djokovic, who would’ve faced Fed in the semis, and does an even bigger favor for Mardy Fish, who would’ve played Roger in the quarters.

11 of the top 16 seeds are still alive, but things have definitely gotten more interesting.

Player                        QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          80.5%  56.5%  45.4%  30.0%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        19.5%   7.2%   3.6%   1.2%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  62.6%  25.2%  17.1%   8.7%  
(5)David Ferrer            37.4%  11.1%   6.2%   2.4%  

(31)Andy Roddick           55.6%  25.6%   6.8%   2.2%  
(21)Juan Monaco            44.4%  18.0%   4.0%   1.1%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        41.0%  21.0%   5.4%   1.6%  
(8)Mardy Fish              59.0%  35.5%  11.5%   4.5%  

Player                        QF     SF      F      W  
Grigor Dimitrov            35.3%   7.7%   1.8%   0.4%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        64.7%  21.5%   7.4%   2.5%  
(13)Gilles Simon           27.0%  14.9%   5.2%   1.7%  
(4)Andy Murray             73.0%  55.9%  32.5%  17.9%  

(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      65.4%  29.2%  14.9%   6.7%  
(19)Florian Mayer          34.6%  10.5%   3.8%   1.2%  
(16)Kei Nishikori          31.4%  14.9%   6.5%   2.5%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            68.6%  45.4%  27.9%  15.5%

2012 Miami Projections: 3rd Round

The 2nd round went almost precisely according to script, leaving us with some high-profile matchups for a mere third round. The closest third-rounders on paper (my paper, anyway) are Almagro/Verdasco and Tipsarevic/Dolgopolov. While Federer and (particularly) Murray have big-serving challenges this round, Djokovic and Nadal are set to coast. The only question is: How many games will Novak allow Troicki to win this time?

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          85.0%  70.8%  52.1%    25.2%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         15.0%   7.3%   2.5%     0.2%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        79.2%  20.0%   8.4%     1.1%  
Albert Ramos               20.8%   1.9%   0.3%     0.0%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  67.7%  45.2%  20.0%     6.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            32.3%  15.9%   4.7%     0.6%  
(30)Julien Benneteau       36.1%  11.0%   2.6%     0.2%  
(5)David Ferrer            63.9%  27.9%   9.4%     1.6%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(3)Roger Federer           75.0%  52.3%  38.6%    12.3%  
(31)Andy Roddick           25.0%  11.1%   5.4%     0.5%  
(21)Juan Monaco            33.2%   9.0%   3.9%     0.3%  
(14)Gael Monfils           66.8%  27.7%  16.8%     2.9%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        50.8%  23.0%   7.5%     0.7%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      49.2%  21.8%   7.0%     0.6%  
(28)Kevin Anderson         38.7%  18.7%   5.8%     0.5%  
(8)Mardy Fish              61.3%  36.5%  15.0%     2.2%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           74.7%  47.0%  23.3%     4.7%  
Grigor Dimitrov            25.3%   9.0%   2.2%     0.1%  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    48.8%  21.1%   7.8%     0.8%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        51.2%  23.0%   8.7%     1.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon           57.8%  19.2%   8.8%     1.0%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          42.2%  11.3%   4.3%     0.3%  
(26)Milos Raonic           27.1%  14.5%   6.8%     0.8%  
(4)Andy Murray             72.9%  54.9%  38.1%    12.1%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      68.1%  40.5%  19.5%     4.4%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  31.9%  13.1%   4.2%     0.4%  
(19)Florian Mayer          39.8%  16.2%   5.5%     0.6%  
(10)John Isner             60.2%  30.2%  13.0%     2.4%  
(16)Kei Nishikori          77.3%  29.0%  14.1%     2.3%  
Lukas Rosol                22.7%   3.9%   0.9%     0.0%  
(25)Radek Stepanek         16.0%   5.7%   1.6%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            84.0%  61.5%  41.2%    13.9%

2012 Miami Projections: 2nd Round

Every 2nd-rounder in Miami is between a seed and a non-seed, so we’re on full-time upset watch for the next two days. (Barring withdrawals, anyway.) There are plenty to keep an eye out for:

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Viktor Troicki. Troicki has never been a very convincing seed, and GGL is coming off of a big win over Andy Murray at Indian Wells. Qualifiers don’t come any tougher than the Spainard.
Bernard Tomic vs David Ferrer. The surface is on Tomic’s side; everything else tilts to Ferrer. But my algorithm like’s the Aussie’s chances, setting the match awfully close to equal.
Nicolas Almagro vs David Goffin. 62/38 usually doesn’t qualify as an upset-in-the-making. This one’s closer than I would’ve expected, thanks to Almagro’s inconsistency on hardcourts. Goffin doesn’t have much in the way of weapons, but that didn’t stop him from taking out Donald Young yesterday.
Kevin Anderson vs Sam Querrey. Almost dead-even. As if you didn’t already one this one would be decided in two or three tiebreaks.
David Nalbandian vs Janko Tipsarevic. In case you ever need an example of when ATP rankings aren’t enough. My algorithm gives Nalbandian the slight edge; I have to imagine that any fan would give the Argentine a bigger one.
Nikolay Davydenko vs John Isner. I have this one set at 69/31 in Isner’s favor, but Davydenko does have the sort of game that gives the big man trouble.

Here’s the full table:

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          79.9%  68.5%  57.5%    21.5%  
Marcos Baghdatis           20.1%  12.1%   7.0%     0.5%  
(q)Guillermo Garcia Lopez  46.0%   8.3%   3.8%     0.1%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         54.0%  11.0%   5.4%     0.2%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        65.6%  40.8%  12.6%     0.9%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe        34.4%  16.3%   3.3%     0.1%  
Albert Ramos               25.6%   6.5%   0.8%     0.0%  
(15)Feliciano Lopez        74.4%  36.4%   9.5%     0.4%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  77.9%  56.3%  38.7%     6.0%  
Ivo Karlovic               22.1%   9.8%   3.8%     0.1%  
Igor Kunitsyn              22.3%   3.7%   0.9%     0.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            77.7%  30.3%  15.6%     0.8%  
(30)Julien Benneteau       63.0%  24.0%   8.3%     0.2%  
Benjamin Becker            37.0%   9.8%   2.5%     0.0%  
Bernard Tomic              45.7%  29.3%  12.7%     0.7%  
(5)David Ferrer            54.3%  36.9%  17.6%     1.3%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(3)Roger Federer           81.7%  64.4%  46.7%    12.2%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison          18.3%   8.4%   3.2%     0.1%  
Gilles Muller              30.2%   5.3%   1.6%     0.0%  
(31)Andy Roddick           69.8%  21.9%  10.5%     0.6%  
(21)Juan Monaco            65.0%  26.0%   8.0%     0.3%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                35.0%   9.4%   1.9%     0.0%  
(q)Sergei Bubka            18.9%   7.0%   1.4%     0.0%  
(14)Gael Monfils           81.1%  57.6%  26.6%     3.2%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        62.1%  35.3%  17.3%     0.7%  
(q)David Goffin            37.9%  17.3%   6.3%     0.1%  
(q)Bjorn Phau              24.9%   7.1%   1.8%     0.0%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      75.1%  40.2%  19.1%     0.7%  
(28)Kevin Anderson         51.3%  23.3%  12.1%     0.4%  
Sam Querrey                48.7%  21.6%  11.0%     0.3%  
(q)Frank Dancevic          23.9%   8.1%   2.9%     0.0%  
(8)Mardy Fish              76.1%  47.1%  29.5%     2.1%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           81.5%  63.9%  40.1%     4.6%  
Nicolas Mahut              18.5%   8.8%   2.5%     0.0%  
Grigor Dimitrov            74.3%  23.6%   8.6%     0.1%  
(29)Juan Ignacio Chela     25.7%   3.7%   0.6%     0.0%  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    83.4%  40.1%  19.0%     1.0%  
(q)Antonio Veic            16.6%   2.5%   0.4%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian           51.3%  29.6%  15.0%     0.9%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        48.7%  27.8%  13.7%     0.7%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(13)Gilles Simon           73.8%  45.2%  16.6%     1.1%  
(q)Roberto Bautista Agut   26.2%   9.5%   1.8%     0.0%  
Robin Haase                40.9%  16.4%   3.7%     0.1%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          59.1%  28.9%   8.8%     0.3%  
(26)Milos Raonic           79.5%  26.2%  15.1%     0.9%  
(q)Arnaud Clement          20.5%   2.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla            14.1%   5.2%   2.0%     0.0%  
(4)Andy Murray             85.9%  65.9%  51.4%    12.6%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      79.2%  57.5%  36.3%     4.6%  
Xavier Malisse             20.8%   8.8%   2.7%     0.0%  
Frederico Gil              22.4%   3.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  77.6%  30.1%  13.6%     0.5%  
(19)Florian Mayer          58.7%  26.8%  12.0%     0.6%  
Ivan Dodig                 41.3%  15.7%   5.8%     0.1%  
Nikolay Davydenko          31.4%  14.0%   5.1%     0.1%  
(10)John Isner             68.6%  43.5%  23.7%     2.2%  

Player                       R32    R16     QF        W  
(16)Kei Nishikori          67.7%  44.1%  18.9%     1.7%  
Lukas Lacko                32.3%  15.3%   4.3%     0.1%  
Lukas Rosol                30.8%   8.6%   1.8%     0.0%  
(24)Marcel Granollers      69.2%  32.0%  11.0%     0.5%  
(25)Radek Stepanek         81.6%  17.4%   6.4%     0.1%  
Tommy Haas                 18.4%   1.1%   0.1%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo           17.9%  10.6%   4.4%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            82.2%  70.9%  53.1%    13.2%

2012 Miami Masters Projections

This week, the semifinals are swapped: If Federer is to continue his streak, he’ll need to go through Djokovic just to reach the final. The most dangerous lower-ranked players seem to be well distributed throughout the draw: Del Potro would face Djokovic in the quarters; Roddick could hit Federer in the third; Raonic could face Murray in the third, and Isner is lurking in Nadal’s quarter.

If Fernando Gonzalez wants to make a run in his final tournament, he’ll have to go through Tomas Berdych in the second round–not exactly the easiest ask, even at the South American slam.

Here are the complete projections for the draw as it stands now, without qualifiers placed:

Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          100.0%  82.4%  71.6%    22.5%  
Leonardo Mayer              17.5%   0.9%   0.2%     0.0%  
Marcos Baghdatis            82.5%  16.8%  10.6%     0.4%  
Qualifier1                  49.9%  16.7%   2.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier2                  50.1%  16.5%   1.9%     0.0%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         100.0%  66.8%  13.7%     0.3%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(17)Richard Gasquet        100.0%  67.7%  42.0%     0.9%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe         55.5%  19.2%   9.0%     0.1%  
Flavio Cipolla              44.5%  13.1%   5.5%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos-Vinolas        42.0%  10.7%   2.7%     0.0%  
Qualifier3                  58.0%  18.6%   5.9%     0.0%  
(15)Feliciano Lopez        100.0%  70.6%  34.9%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  100.0%  79.0%  57.1%     6.0%  
Lukasz Kubot                45.8%   9.0%   3.7%     0.0%  
Ivo Karlovic                54.2%  12.0%   5.2%     0.0%  
Igor Kunitsyn               42.4%   9.1%   1.6%     0.0%  
(WC)Jesse Levine            57.6%  16.0%   3.3%     0.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            100.0%  74.9%  29.1%     0.7%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(30)Julien Benneteau       100.0%  61.7%  24.6%     0.2%  
Benjamin Becker             47.4%  17.5%   5.1%     0.0%  
Olivier Rochus              52.6%  20.8%   6.1%     0.0%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           34.2%  10.4%   4.9%     0.0%  
Bernard Tomic               65.8%  30.0%  19.0%     0.5%  
(5)David Ferrer            100.0%  59.6%  40.4%     1.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(3)Roger Federer           100.0%  84.8%  66.5%    12.4%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison           77.5%  13.9%   6.5%     0.1%  
Potito Starace              22.5%   1.4%   0.3%     0.0%  
Alex Bogomolov              54.9%  18.9%   3.7%     0.0%  
Gilles Muller               45.1%  13.6%   2.3%     0.0%  
(31)Andy Roddick           100.0%  67.5%  20.6%     0.6%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(21)Juan Monaco            100.0%  61.3%  23.9%     0.3%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 43.1%  15.1%   3.9%     0.0%  
Jarkko Nieminen             56.9%  23.6%   7.5%     0.0%  
Qualifier4                  31.8%   6.2%   2.3%     0.0%  
Ernests Gulbis              68.2%  23.7%  13.1%     0.2%  
(14)Gael Monfils           100.0%  70.1%  49.3%     2.6%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        100.0%  64.3%  36.5%     0.7%  
Qualifier5                  38.3%  11.1%   4.1%     0.0%  
Donald Young                61.7%  24.6%  11.6%     0.1%  
Qualifier6                  66.9%  20.1%   6.7%     0.0%  
Carlos Berlocq              33.1%   5.8%   1.2%     0.0%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      100.0%  74.1%  40.0%     0.7%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(28)Kevin Anderson         100.0%  54.9%  24.6%     0.4%  
Sam Querrey                 59.2%  28.9%  12.5%     0.2%  
Matthew Ebden               40.8%  16.3%   5.8%     0.0%  
Qualifier7                  37.2%   8.2%   2.7%     0.0%  
Jeremy Chardy               62.8%  20.6%   9.3%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish              100.0%  71.2%  45.1%     2.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           100.0%  83.6%  65.0%     5.0%  
Nicolas Mahut               85.8%  15.9%   7.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Fernando Gonzalez       14.2%   0.5%   0.1%     0.0%  
Grigor Dimitrov             47.7%  35.6%  11.0%     0.1%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           52.3%  39.8%  13.2%     0.1%  
(29)Juan Ignacio Chela     100.0%  24.5%   3.4%     0.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    100.0%  69.7%  35.0%     0.8%  
Qualifier8                  43.4%  11.8%   3.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla             56.6%  18.5%   6.2%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian            66.0%  34.0%  19.7%     0.6%  
Steve Darcis                34.0%  11.9%   4.9%     0.0%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        100.0%  54.1%  30.8%     0.8%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(13)Gilles Simon           100.0%  66.6%  41.5%     0.9%  
Qualifier9                  36.5%   9.4%   3.5%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi               63.5%  24.0%  12.2%     0.1%  
Robin Haase                 58.0%  24.0%   9.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Marinko Matosevic       42.0%  14.0%   4.4%     0.0%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          100.0%  62.0%  29.1%     0.3%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(26)Milos Raonic           100.0%  69.3%  23.2%     0.8%  
Dudi Sela                   59.0%  20.0%   4.3%     0.0%  
Qualifier10                 41.0%  10.7%   1.7%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla             42.5%   6.0%   2.2%     0.0%  
Denis Istomin               57.5%  10.7%   4.6%     0.1%  
(4)Andy Murray             100.0%  83.3%  64.0%    12.0%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      100.0%  80.8%  57.6%     4.5%  
Qualifier11                 43.8%   7.4%   2.5%     0.0%  
Xavier Malisse              56.2%  11.8%   4.8%     0.0%  
Thomaz Bellucci             70.8%  28.9%   9.0%     0.1%  
Frederico Gil               29.2%   6.5%   1.1%     0.0%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  100.0%  64.5%  24.9%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(19)Florian Mayer          100.0%  60.2%  27.7%     0.6%  
Philipp Petzschner          45.4%  17.0%   5.9%     0.0%  
Ivan Dodig                  54.6%  22.7%   8.7%     0.1%  
Nikolay Davydenko           59.5%  18.7%   8.4%     0.1%  
James Blake                 40.5%   9.7%   3.5%     0.0%  
(10)John Isner             100.0%  71.6%  45.8%     2.2%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(16)Kei Nishikori          100.0%  70.2%  44.6%     1.7%  
Ryan Sweeting               42.7%  11.3%   4.4%     0.0%  
Lukas Lacko                 57.3%  18.5%   8.4%     0.1%  
Michael Llodra              63.8%  27.7%  11.2%     0.1%  
Lukas Rosol                 36.2%  11.0%   3.1%     0.0%  
(24)Marcel Granollers      100.0%  61.3%  28.3%     0.4%  
                                                          
Player                        R64    R32    R16        W  
(25)Radek Stepanek         100.0%  64.8%  13.3%     0.1%  
Qualifier12                 75.1%  30.6%   4.8%     0.0%  
Tommy Haas                  24.9%   4.6%   0.3%     0.0%  
Pablo Andujar               28.6%   2.3%   0.9%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo            71.4%  12.7%   7.4%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            100.0%  84.9%  73.3%    14.0%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Quarterfinals

A couple of days ago, I wrote about how the cluster of players after the big four was itself cementing its hold on the next few ranking spots. Since then, Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga have all lost. Oops!

Of that group, only Juan Martin del Potro has survived, and according to my numbers, he poses a serious challenge to Roger Federer tomorrow. But that isn’t the tightest match. That honor goes to Isner/Simon, the most dramatic contrast of playing styles in the quarterfinals. They’ve played once before, at last year’s US Open, when Isner won in four sets, including three tiebreaks. It was even closer than it sounds–Simon won more than half of the points that day.

Here are the full odds for the rest of the tournament:

Player                       SF      F      W
(1)Novak Djokovic         84.8%  69.0%  44.5%
(12)Nicolas Almagro       15.2%   6.7%   1.6%
(13)Gilles Simon          48.1%  11.5%   3.4%
(11)John Isner            51.9%  12.8%   4.0%  

(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  44.6%  21.0%   8.9%
(3)Roger Federer          55.4%  29.2%  13.9%
David Nalbandian          23.3%   6.5%   1.8%
(2)Rafael Nadal           76.7%  43.2%  21.9%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Round of 16

As big days in men’s tennis go, Super Wednesday at Indian Wells is right up there. Six of the top ten are in action, along with ten other guys, some of whom belong here. According to my simulations, it is increasingly Novak Djokovic’s tournament to win. At the very least, it’s Novak’s quarterfinal to reach.

Player                       QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         95.6%  72.6%  60.6%  40.4%  
Pablo Andujar              4.4%   0.6%   0.1%   0.0%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       31.4%   5.7%   2.7%   0.8%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          68.6%  21.1%  14.1%   6.3%  
                                                      
Ryan Harrison             39.7%  17.5%   3.2%   0.7%  
(13)Gilles Simon          60.3%  32.8%   8.0%   2.6%  
(11)John Isner            70.8%  39.5%  10.1%   3.4%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          29.2%  10.1%   1.3%   0.2%  
                                                      
Player                       QF     SF      F      W  
Denis Istomin             23.4%   6.1%   1.5%   0.3%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  76.6%  38.9%  19.2%   8.3%  
Thomaz Bellucci           17.5%   4.6%   0.9%   0.2%  
(3)Roger Federer          82.5%  50.4%  27.7%  13.5%  
                                                      
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     67.3%  30.4%  14.7%   6.0%  
David Nalbandian          32.7%   9.6%   3.0%   0.8%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   25.0%  10.1%   3.3%   1.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           75.0%  49.9%  29.7%  15.3%

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Round of 32

Andy Murray is out, and the clear winner is … Novak Djokovic. Djokovic’s chances of winning the tournament leapt to 36.2%, almost triple Nadal’s. The Djokovic factor produces an interesting quirk: the only two players of the remaining 32 whose chances round to 0.0% play each other in the 3rd round. One of them, of course, is guaranteed to reach the round of 16, but their chances of beating Djokovic (or Kevin Anderson, come to that) are awfully small.

Aside from the top seeds, there aren’t many overwhelming favorites this round, according to my odds. It often seems to happen that way at Masters and even Grand Slam events–there’s a slew of compelling matchups in the third and fourth rounds, then in the quarters, we watch the top seeds rip apart guys outside of the top four.

Here are the odds for today’s and tomorrow’ matches:

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         85.8%  81.6%  64.4%    36.2%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        14.2%  10.8%   4.2%     0.5%  
Pablo Andujar             45.9%   3.2%   0.5%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos              54.1%   4.3%   0.8%     0.0%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       58.4%  21.2%   5.1%     0.7%  
Santiago Giraldo          41.7%  12.0%   2.3%     0.2%  
(30)Andy Roddick          35.8%  20.8%   5.6%     1.0%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          64.2%  46.0%  17.0%     5.2%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez    48.2%  16.8%   6.1%     0.3%  
Ryan Harrison             51.8%  19.1%   7.3%     0.4%  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    55.0%  36.4%  19.4%     2.4%  
(13)Gilles Simon          45.0%  27.6%  13.4%     1.4%  
(11)John Isner            57.3%  28.5%  15.3%     1.6%  
(22)Juan Monaco           42.7%  18.4%   8.6%     0.7%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          24.2%   7.8%   2.6%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish             75.8%  45.2%  27.4%     4.1%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(5)David Ferrer           69.0%  32.2%  15.2%     2.5%  
Denis Istomin             31.0%   8.9%   2.7%     0.2%  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     30.6%  13.9%   5.3%     0.5%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  69.4%  45.1%  25.3%     6.3%  
Nikolay Davydenko         57.8%  15.9%   5.4%     0.4%  
Thomaz Bellucci           42.3%   9.3%   2.6%     0.1%  
(27)Milos Raonic          31.2%  19.9%   8.9%     1.2%  
(3)Roger Federer          68.8%  54.8%  34.6%    10.3%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     76.9%  50.1%  25.0%     5.9%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        23.1%   8.2%   2.0%     0.1%  
David Nalbandian          44.8%  17.6%   5.9%     0.7%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      55.2%  24.1%   9.3%     1.3%  
Marcos Baghdatis          53.5%  18.4%   8.5%     1.2%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   46.5%  14.7%   6.3%     0.7%  
(26)Marcel Granollers     24.5%  11.4%   4.8%     0.6%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           75.5%  55.5%  38.1%    13.2%