Category: Forecasting

Wimbledon Women’s Draw Predictions

The women’s field is more tightly packed than the men’s, especially with Kim Clijsters out of action.  As such, my algorithm gives only Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka better than a 10-to-1 shot of winning Wimbledon.  Serena and Venus Williams, of course, are wild cards–it’s easy to see Serena winning it all, or crashing out early from injury or rust.

Here is the full draw breakdown:

Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Caroline Wozniacki           94.0%  77.1%  65.9%    15.03%  
Arantxa Parra Santonja        6.0%   1.5%   0.5%     0.00%  
Sania Mirza                  26.0%   3.1%   1.2%     0.00%  
Virginie Razzano             74.0%  18.2%  11.3%     0.30%  
Anastasia Rodionova          58.4%  19.4%   3.0%     0.01%  
Andrea Hlavackova            41.6%  10.9%   1.3%     0.00%  
Alona Bondarenko             50.3%  35.2%   8.7%     0.11%  
Jarmila Gajdosova            49.7%  34.4%   8.3%     0.11%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Dominika Cibulkova           85.6%  64.5%  43.8%     1.98%  
Mirjana Lucic                14.4%   4.8%   1.4%     0.00%  
Polona Hercog                53.6%  17.0%   7.8%     0.03%  
Johanna Larsson              46.4%  13.6%   5.8%     0.01%  
Mathilde Johansson           39.1%   8.0%   1.5%     0.00%  
Heather Watson               60.9%  17.3%   4.4%     0.01%  
Anabel Medina Garrigues      26.3%  15.6%   4.6%     0.01%  
Julia Goerges                73.7%  59.0%  30.7%     0.66%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Samantha Stosur              81.6%  65.4%  38.3%     2.17%  
Melinda Czink                18.4%   8.8%   2.4%     0.00%  
Anastasiya Yakimova          48.5%  12.2%   3.5%     0.00%  
Sofia Arvidsson              51.5%  13.6%   4.0%     0.01%  
Elena Baltacha               64.2%  18.4%   6.6%     0.02%  
Mona Barthel                 35.8%   6.8%   1.6%     0.00%  
Kirsten Flipkens             21.2%  11.2%   3.8%     0.02%  
Shuai Peng                   78.9%  63.6%  39.9%     2.70%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Lucie Safarova               69.1%  42.3%  18.7%     0.44%  
Lucie Hradecka               30.9%  13.1%   3.7%     0.01%  
Klara Zakopalova             81.7%  41.1%  16.1%     0.23%  
Emily Webley-Smith           18.3%   3.5%   0.5%     0.00%  
Angelique Kerber             64.6%  15.7%   6.1%     0.02%  
Laura Robson                 35.4%   5.2%   1.4%     0.00%  
Anna Chakvetadze             25.1%  16.2%   7.8%     0.08%  
Maria Sharapova              74.9%  62.9%  45.7%     4.54%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Na Li                        84.1%  60.8%  46.2%     5.66%  
Alla Kudryavtseva            15.9%   5.2%   2.0%     0.00%  
Sabine Lisicki               54.1%  19.2%  10.9%     0.24%  
Anastasija Sevastova         45.9%  14.7%   7.7%     0.11%  
Jie Zheng                    86.6%  51.9%  18.9%     0.31%  
Zuzana Ondraskova            13.4%   2.8%   0.3%     0.00%  
Misaki Doi                   22.1%   5.5%   0.7%     0.00%  
Bethanie Mattek-Sands        77.9%  39.9%  13.3%     0.15%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Ana Ivanovic                 68.6%  55.8%  33.6%     1.87%  
Melanie Oudin                31.4%  20.8%   8.8%     0.07%  
Coco Vandeweghe              53.5%  13.1%   4.0%     0.01%  
Eleni Daniilidou             46.5%  10.3%   2.9%     0.00%  
Kristina Barrois             64.9%  17.2%   5.5%     0.01%  
Petra Cetkovska              35.1%   6.1%   1.3%     0.00%  
Olga Govortsova              20.2%  11.1%   3.4%     0.01%  
Agnieszka Radwanska          79.8%  65.7%  40.5%     2.34%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Marion Bartoli               88.5%  78.3%  47.8%     3.02%  
Kristyna Pliskova            11.5%   5.6%   1.1%     0.00%  
Lourdes Dominguez Lino       45.7%   6.9%   1.4%     0.00%  
Romina Oprandi               54.3%   9.2%   2.0%     0.00%  
Evgeniya Rodina              51.2%  11.3%   2.7%     0.00%  
Chanelle Scheepers           48.8%  10.1%   2.4%     0.00%  
Irina-Camelia Begu           14.5%   6.8%   1.5%     0.00%  
Flavia Pennetta              85.5%  71.8%  41.1%     2.36%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Maria Kirilenko              79.4%  57.5%  24.8%     0.61%  
Alberta Brianti              20.6%   8.4%   1.6%     0.00%  
Tamarine Tanasugarn          39.8%  11.5%   2.2%     0.00%  
Yaroslava Shvedova           60.2%  22.6%   6.0%     0.01%  
Simona Halep                 48.7%  11.6%   5.1%     0.02%  
Bojana Jovanovski            51.3%  12.7%   5.9%     0.04%  
Aravane Rezai                25.1%  14.9%   7.9%     0.09%  
Serena Williams              74.9%  60.8%  46.4%     5.54%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Francesca Schiavone          70.3%  49.3%  30.5%     0.96%  
Jelena Dokic                 29.7%  14.8%   6.1%     0.03%  
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova   57.8%  22.5%  10.0%     0.05%  
Aleksandra Wozniak           42.2%  13.4%   5.0%     0.01%  
Ayumi Morita                 44.0%  14.7%   5.2%     0.01%  
Tamira Paszek                56.0%  21.7%   9.0%     0.04%  
Christina McHale             31.1%  15.8%   6.2%     0.02%  
Ekaterina Makarova           68.9%  47.9%  27.9%     0.70%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Shahar Peer                  77.8%  58.9%  30.1%     1.15%  
Ksenia Pervak                22.2%  10.6%   2.7%     0.00%  
Sorana Cirstea               65.7%  22.9%   7.3%     0.03%  
Pauline Parmentier           34.3%   7.6%   1.5%     0.00%  
Irina Falconi                56.0%  10.1%   2.7%     0.00%  
Stephanie Dubois             44.0%   7.1%   1.8%     0.00%  
Stephanie Foretz Gacon       11.8%   5.7%   1.5%     0.00%  
Andrea Petkovic              88.2%  77.2%  52.4%     4.11%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova     86.2%  59.1%  38.5%     2.28%  
Lesia Tsurenko               13.8%   3.8%   0.9%     0.00%  
Vesna Dolonts                26.3%   6.0%   1.7%     0.00%  
Nadia Petrova                73.7%  31.1%  16.2%     0.32%  
Kateryna Bondarenko          53.7%  24.2%   9.5%     0.12%  
Alize Cornet                 46.3%  19.3%   7.2%     0.07%  
Sara Errani                  35.3%  16.6%   5.9%     0.05%  
Kaia Kanepi                  64.7%  40.0%  20.1%     0.62%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Daniela Hantuchova           86.5%  70.1%  28.5%     1.40%  
Vitalia Diatchenko           13.5%   5.4%   0.6%     0.00%  
Kai-Chen Chang               56.0%  14.7%   2.6%     0.01%  
Marina Erakovic              44.0%   9.8%   1.4%     0.00%  
Sandra Zahlavova             26.6%   2.8%   0.7%     0.00%  
Iveta Benesova               73.4%  17.3%   7.9%     0.10%  
Magdalena Rybarikova         16.6%   9.0%   3.9%     0.04%  
Victoria Azarenka            83.4%  70.8%  54.5%    10.87%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Petra Kvitova                89.6%  79.6%  63.3%     7.16%  
Alexa Glatch                 10.4%   5.0%   1.6%     0.00%  
Naomi Broady                 38.9%   4.8%   1.3%     0.00%  
Anne Keothavong              61.1%  10.6%   3.9%     0.01%  
Rebecca Marino               66.9%  22.5%   5.2%     0.01%  
Patricia Mayr-Achleitner     33.1%   6.6%   0.9%     0.00%  
Vera Dushevina               47.6%  33.4%  10.8%     0.11%  
Roberta Vinci                52.4%  37.5%  12.9%     0.17%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Yanina Wickmayer             80.9%  66.9%  34.8%     1.28%  
Varvara Lepchenko            19.1%  10.1%   2.4%     0.00%  
Anastasia Pivovarova         49.0%  10.9%   2.3%     0.00%  
Anna Tatishvili              51.0%  12.0%   2.6%     0.00%  
Jill Craybas                 27.7%   4.4%   1.1%     0.00%  
Alexandra Dulgheru           72.3%  21.4%   8.9%     0.05%  
Shuai Zhang                  14.7%   6.2%   1.9%     0.00%  
Svetlana Kuznetsova          85.3%  68.0%  46.1%     3.25%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Jelena Jankovic              58.7%  44.3%  24.0%     0.97%  
Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez  41.3%  28.3%  13.0%     0.27%  
Monica Niculescu             48.4%  12.9%   3.7%     0.01%  
Sybille Bammer               51.6%  14.6%   4.5%     0.01%  
Katie O'Brien                26.3%   3.8%   0.7%     0.00%  
Kimiko Date-Krumm            73.7%  22.1%   8.4%     0.04%  
Akgul Amanmuradova           14.9%   6.4%   1.6%     0.00%  
Venus Williams               85.1%  67.7%  44.0%     2.94%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Tsvetana Pironkova           75.0%  41.3%  10.3%     0.08%  
Camila Giorgi                25.0%   7.4%   0.8%     0.00%  
Vania King                   54.9%  29.4%   6.6%     0.02%  
Petra Martic                 45.1%  22.0%   4.3%     0.01%  
Elena Vesnina                84.3%  26.9%  18.2%     0.48%  
Laura Pous-Tio               15.7%   1.5%   0.4%     0.00%  
Alison Riske                 10.4%   3.1%   1.3%     0.00%  
Vera Zvonareva               89.6%  68.4%  58.0%     9.23%

Wimbledon Men’s Draw Predictions

After several days of delays in qualifying, the Wimbledon main draws are finally complete.  As expected, Novak Djokovic is the favorite, with a 21.6% chance of winning.  Federer is next, at 14.3%, and Nadal is close behind, at 13.6%.  It’s Rafa’s turn to line up against dark horse Juan Martin del Potro–they are positioned for a fourth-round clash.

A few other notes about the draw:

  • It’s easy to imagine that all qualifiers are alike, but my system has no respect for Frenchman Kenny De Schepper.  He has less a 10% shot at beating Olivier Rochus.
  • Speaking of qualifiers, Marinko Matosevic drew 25th-seed Juan Ignacio Chela, whose ranking is largely due to his strong performance (and weak draw) in Paris.  Chela is not much of a hard court threat, so while Matosevic is hardly a threat in his own right, the Aussie is favored.
  • The Matosevic/Chela matchup could also benefit an American.  Alex Bogomolov and Donald Young will play for a chance to face the winner of Matosevic/Chela, giving either US player a good chance of reaching the third round.  After that it’s Tomas Berdych, and it’s probably over.
  • Several qualifiers are favored to reach the second round, partly because of a few Q vs. Q (or Q vs. lucky loser) matchups.  One such qualifier is Lukasz Kubot, who I predict will beat wild card Arnaud Clement.
  • Another one?  Ryan Harrison, in as a LL, faces Ivan Dodig.  Dodig has climbed the rankings this season, but my system puts him a tiny margin behind the American.
  • Of the top four, Roger Federer has the easiest route to the semis.  It looks like David Nalbandian in the third, Almagro, Youhzny, or maybe Isner in the fourth, and Ferrer or Tsonga in the quarters.

Here is the full breakdown:

Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             92.9%  84.1%  68.2%      13.60%  
Michael Russell              7.1%   3.2%   0.9%       0.00%  
Pablo Andujar               27.8%   2.0%   0.4%       0.00%  
Ryan Sweeting               72.2%  10.7%   4.1%       0.02%  
Gilles Muller               74.2%  21.8%   3.6%       0.01%  
Tommy Haas                  25.8%   3.4%   0.2%       0.00%  
Fabio Fognini               27.5%  16.7%   3.1%       0.02%  
(31)Milos Raonic            72.5%  58.0%  19.4%       0.65%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(24)Juan Martin Del Potro   90.4%  73.9%  57.8%       7.49%  
Flavio Cipolla               9.6%   3.8%   1.2%       0.00%  
Olivier Rochus              90.1%  21.9%  10.4%       0.05%  
Kenny De Schepper            9.9%   0.4%   0.0%       0.00%  
Frederico Gil               42.4%  12.8%   2.4%       0.00%  
Dudi Sela                   57.6%  22.4%   5.2%       0.03%  
Edouard Roger-Vasselin      23.7%  10.1%   2.1%       0.00%  
(15)Gilles Simon            76.3%  54.8%  21.0%       0.52%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(10)Mardy Fish              71.4%  48.3%  33.1%       1.81%  
Marcel Granollers           28.6%  13.0%   6.3%       0.03%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       64.3%  28.3%  16.1%       0.27%  
Denis Istomin               35.7%  10.3%   4.2%       0.01%  
Robin Haase                 67.8%  21.3%   6.0%       0.01%  
Pere Riba                   32.2%   5.8%   0.9%       0.00%  
Radek Stepanek              39.8%  27.0%  11.7%       0.10%  
(21)Fernando Verdasco       60.2%  45.8%  21.7%       0.45%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(25)Juan Ignacio Chela      44.2%  15.9%   3.6%       0.00%  
Marinko Matosevic           55.8%  24.6%   6.1%       0.00%  
Donald Young                52.5%  31.6%  10.8%       0.02%  
Alex Bogomolov Jr           47.5%  27.9%   8.4%       0.02%  
Ruben Bemelmans             34.4%   7.4%   3.2%       0.00%  
Julien Benneteau            65.6%  21.2%  12.7%       0.06%  
Filippo Volandri             6.3%   1.1%   0.2%       0.00%  
(6)Tomas Berdych            93.7%  70.3%  55.0%       2.47%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(4)Andy Murray              87.9%  77.2%  57.4%       9.55%  
Daniel Gimeno-Traver        12.1%   6.2%   2.0%       0.00%  
Tobias Kamke                47.4%   7.5%   2.2%       0.00%  
Blaz Kavcic                 52.6%   9.0%   2.8%       0.01%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           83.3%  26.2%   6.6%       0.04%  
Daniel Cox                  16.7%   1.6%   0.1%       0.00%  
Ivan Ljubicic               39.3%  26.1%   9.4%       0.17%  
(27)Marin Cilic             60.7%  46.0%  19.5%       1.02%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(17)Richard Gasquet         70.1%  54.5%  26.9%       0.66%  
Santiago Giraldo            29.9%  17.9%   5.8%       0.01%  
Igor Kunitsyn               47.3%  12.4%   3.0%       0.00%  
Igor Sijsling               52.7%  15.2%   4.0%       0.00%  
Martin Fischer              56.4%  10.6%   3.3%       0.00%  
Simone Bolelli              43.6%   6.5%   1.6%       0.00%  
Potito Starace              10.6%   4.8%   1.2%       0.00%  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      89.4%  78.1%  54.2%       3.00%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(9)Gael Monfils             77.0%  61.6%  43.5%       2.31%  
Matthias Bachinger          23.0%  12.1%   5.3%       0.02%  
Grega Zemlja                42.6%  10.0%   3.7%       0.01%  
Lukas Lacko                 57.4%  16.3%   6.9%       0.02%  
Arnaud Clement              42.5%  12.3%   3.1%       0.00%  
Lukasz Kubot                57.5%  19.9%   6.1%       0.01%  
Ivo Karlovic                39.5%  24.6%  10.5%       0.06%  
(23)Janko Tipsarevic        60.5%  43.2%  20.9%       0.28%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(30)Thomaz Bellucci         71.0%  34.8%  13.8%       0.10%  
Rainer Schuettler           29.0%   8.2%   1.9%       0.00%  
Feliciano Lopez             63.3%  39.1%  16.3%       0.16%  
Michael Berrer              36.7%  17.9%   5.9%       0.02%  
Jaroslav Pospisil           26.3%   2.6%   0.4%       0.00%  
Victor Hanescu              73.7%  16.6%   5.9%       0.00%  
Andreas Beck                17.3%   9.6%   3.4%       0.00%  
(8)Andy Roddick             82.7%  71.1%  52.3%       2.71%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(7)David Ferrer             83.8%  59.7%  42.0%       1.80%  
Benoit Paire                16.2%   5.3%   1.8%       0.00%  
Ivan Dodig                  49.2%  17.0%   8.5%       0.04%  
Ryan Harrison               50.8%  18.0%   9.3%       0.07%  
Carlos Berlocq              28.6%   4.2%   0.5%       0.00%  
Karol Beck                  71.4%  20.6%   5.2%       0.00%  
Andrey Golubev              36.1%  24.6%   9.2%       0.04%  
(26)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  63.9%  50.5%  23.4%       0.35%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(22)Alexandr Dolgopolov     82.7%  70.5%  38.6%       1.21%  
Fernando Gonzalez           17.3%   9.6%   2.4%       0.00%  
Rik De Voest                72.0%  16.7%   3.8%       0.01%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       28.0%   3.2%   0.4%       0.00%  
Grigor Dimitrov             75.1%  25.1%  11.0%       0.07%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe         24.9%   4.1%   1.0%       0.00%  
Go Soeda                    18.0%   7.4%   2.4%       0.00%  
(12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      82.0%  63.4%  40.5%       2.10%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(16)Nicolas Almagro         60.6%  32.7%  16.9%       0.19%  
Jarkko Nieminen             39.4%  17.3%   7.5%       0.04%  
John Isner                  71.0%  39.5%  20.5%       0.24%  
Nicolas Mahut               29.0%  10.5%   3.5%       0.00%  
Somdev Devvarman            63.0%  20.5%   8.2%       0.03%  
Denis Gremelmayr            37.0%   8.2%   2.4%       0.00%  
Juan Monaco                 47.6%  33.1%  17.7%       0.24%  
(18)Mikhail Youzhny         52.4%  38.2%  23.2%       0.46%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(28)David Nalbandian        76.7%  58.3%  19.2%       0.53%  
Julian Reister              23.3%  11.1%   1.6%       0.00%  
Florent Serra               53.1%  16.7%   2.5%       0.00%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       46.9%  13.8%   1.9%       0.00%  
Adrian Mannarino            73.0%  17.0%   9.4%       0.12%  
Conor Niland                27.0%   2.9%   0.9%       0.00%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           13.5%   6.3%   3.0%       0.02%  
(3)Roger Federer            86.5%  73.8%  61.4%      14.27%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(5)Robin Soderling          75.8%  52.9%  36.8%       3.13%  
Philipp Petzschner          24.2%  10.5%   4.8%       0.06%  
Kei Nishikori               57.3%  22.1%  11.6%       0.25%  
Lleyton Hewitt              42.7%  14.4%   6.8%       0.08%  
Igor Andreev                56.6%  19.3%   5.6%       0.02%  
Teymuraz Gabashvili         43.4%  11.9%   2.8%       0.00%  
Bernard Tomic               32.5%  19.2%   6.5%       0.06%  
(29)Nikolay Davydenko       67.5%  49.6%  25.2%       1.28%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(20)Florian Mayer           83.0%  55.7%  33.4%       0.83%  
Daniel Evans                17.0%   5.2%   1.3%       0.00%  
Xavier Malisse              53.4%  21.2%   9.4%       0.05%  
Mischa Zverev               46.6%  17.9%   7.3%       0.02%  
Ernests Gulbis              51.0%  24.1%  11.6%       0.07%  
Dmitry Tursunov             49.0%  22.4%   9.9%       0.06%  
Alejandro Falla             27.8%  11.2%   3.8%       0.01%  
(11)Jurgen Melzer           72.2%  42.3%  23.2%       0.43%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(13)Viktor Troicki          87.5%  56.2%  36.7%       0.74%  
Maximo Gonzalez             12.5%   2.4%   0.5%       0.00%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 35.6%  11.8%   5.0%       0.01%  
Tommy Robredo               64.4%  29.6%  17.2%       0.10%  
Ricardo Mello               41.9%  11.6%   2.9%       0.00%  
Frank Dancevic              58.1%  20.6%   6.8%       0.01%  
James Ward                  36.7%  21.7%   8.3%       0.02%  
(19)Michael Llodra          63.3%  46.0%  22.5%       0.26%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(32)Marcos Baghdatis        79.3%  56.1%  17.8%       1.10%  
James Blake                 20.7%   8.7%   1.2%       0.00%  
Andreas Seppi               49.1%  17.4%   3.1%       0.02%  
Albert Montanes             50.9%  17.8%   3.0%       0.03%  
Kevin Anderson              60.7%  10.8%   4.6%       0.04%  
Illya Marchenko             39.3%   4.5%   1.5%       0.00%  
Jeremy Chardy               13.4%   8.2%   4.1%       0.09%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           86.6%  76.5%  64.7%      21.58%

French Open Odds Update: Quarterfinals

The draw looked odd this morning — Andy Murray and Viktor Troicki were still in the fourth round, while Novak Djokovic was safely in the semis following Fabio Fognini’s withdrawal. (Djokovic’s odds of advancing didn’t change much with Fognini’s withdrawal!)

Now that things are back to normal, we can update the odds. My rankings make Novak the 2-1 favorite to reach the final over Federer–probably a little optimistic for Roger, but you have to admit, the Swiss has looked surprisingly good this week. Largely thanks to Djokovic, there’s a 60% chance that the tournament winner comes from the bottom half.

Here are the odds for the remaining players:

Player                  SF      F      W  
(1)Rafael Nadal      68.9%  49.6%  24.9%  
(5)Robin Soderling   31.1%  17.1%   5.1%  
(4)Andy Murray       86.8%  32.1%  10.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela   13.2%   1.1%   0.1%  
(3)Roger Federer    100.0%  33.1%  16.2%  
(2)Novak Djokovic   100.0%  66.9%  43.8%

French Open Odds Update: 4th Round

With Juan Martin del Potro out of the way, Novak Djokovic is once again the odds-on favorite to win the French Open. His chances of winning are up to 38.7%, while Rafael Nadal’s haven’t budged much, now sitting at 25.8%.

Djokovic seems set to cruise into the semifinals, at least. Tomorrow he’ll face Richard Gasquet, and then in the quarters it gets even easier, with either Fabio Fognini or Albert Montanes. Things have worked out nicely for another Serbian, as well. Viktor Troicki will play Andy Murray–not the easiest draw, of course, but made easier by Murray’s ankle-twisting today. And whoever comes out of that match should be able to reach a semifinal date with Nadal, as the next opponent will be either Alejandro Falla or Juan Ignacio Chela.

Here are the full odds:

Player                     QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Rafael Nadal         84.4%  61.5%  46.8%  25.8%  
Ivan Ljubicic           15.6%   4.9%   2.0%   0.4%  
(18)Gilles Simon        28.7%   6.4%   2.7%   0.6%  
(5)Robin Soderling      71.3%  27.1%  16.4%   5.9%  
(4)Andy Murray          76.0%  67.0%  27.3%  10.1%  
(15)Viktor Troicki      24.0%  16.9%   3.2%   0.5%  
(q)Alejandro Falla      40.7%   5.4%   0.5%   0.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela      59.3%  10.7%   1.2%   0.1%  
                                                    
Player                     QF     SF      F      W  
(7)David Ferrer         55.8%  22.4%   6.9%   2.7%  
(9)Gael Monfils         44.2%  15.7%   3.9%   1.3%  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka  25.6%  10.8%   2.4%   0.7%  
(3)Roger Federer        74.4%  51.0%  21.8%  11.1%  
Fabio Fognini           38.5%   3.0%   0.5%   0.1%  
Albert Montanes         61.5%   6.3%   1.4%   0.2%  
(13)Richard Gasquet     17.5%  13.5%   5.5%   1.8%  
(2)Novak Djokovic       82.5%  77.2%  57.5%  38.7%

French Open Odds Update: 3rd Round

Three-quarters of the field has been eliminated, and we’re left with 32 men standing. Who’s left: 6 of the top 8, 13 of the top 16, and 21 of the top 32. All the wild cards and lucky losers are out (though Marsel Ilhan went down fighting!) but of the 11 unseeded players still in the draw, an amazing six are qualifiers.

In the odds below, you might notice an interesting twist. Suddenly, Nadal is the favorite! As Juan Martin del Potro has taken care of business and ensured a third-round clash with Novak Djokovic, Djokovic’s chances of reaching each successive round have decreased. But the men in Nadal’s section have done him favors–especially qualifier Antonio Veic, who knocked out Nikolay Davydenko today. The Russian is always a threat, but I don’t think we can say the same about Veic.

Nadal’s chances are up to 26.9%, while Djokovic’s have fallen to 25.8%. Of course, both of those numbers are far beyond anyone else in the field. On the other end, qualifiers Veic and Steve Darcis have the smallest chances of winning the title–they each won it all only once per 50,000 simulations. The qualifier with the best chance is Lukasz Kubot, who is about 15 times more likely than Darcis to take home his first grand slam championship. 

Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             95.4%  78.9%  59.0%  …  26.9%  
(q)Antonio Veic              4.6%   0.9%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
Ivan Ljubicic               40.6%   7.4%   2.6%  …   0.2%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       59.4%  12.8%   5.8%  …   0.9%  
(10)Mardy Fish              54.4%  21.1%   5.3%  …   0.7%  
(18)Giles Simon             45.6%  16.1%   3.9%  …   0.4%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           14.6%   4.1%   0.5%  …   0.0%  
(5)Robin Soderling          85.4%  58.7%  22.8%  …   5.8%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(4)Andy Murray              88.7%  68.7%  60.9%  …  10.6%  
Michael Berrer              11.3%   3.4%   1.7%  …   0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     44.2%  11.6%   7.9%  …   0.2%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          55.9%  16.4%  11.8%  …   0.5%  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             51.0%  22.5%   3.6%  …   0.0%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          49.0%  22.0%   3.5%  …   0.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          60.9%  36.4%   7.6%  …   0.1%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              39.1%  19.2%   3.0%  …   0.0%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(7)David Ferrer             81.0%  49.2%  22.2%  …   3.0%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       19.0%   5.9%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
(q)Steve Darcis             14.6%   2.3%   0.2%  …   0.0%  
(9)Gael Monfils             85.4%  42.7%  17.1%  …   1.6%  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      50.2%  16.0%   7.1%  …   0.6%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      49.8%  16.0%   7.1%  …   0.6%  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        18.0%   7.0%   2.5%  …   0.1%  
(3)Roger Federer            82.0%  61.0%  42.7%  …  10.6%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
Fabio Fognini               36.6%  13.2%   1.3%  …   0.0%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  63.4%  33.1%   4.8%  …   0.3%  
Albert Montanes             43.1%  22.3%   2.7%  …   0.1%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         56.9%  31.4%   5.4%  …   0.3%  
(13)Richard Gasquet         63.6%  13.3%   9.4%  …   1.5%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         36.4%   4.9%   2.9%  …   0.2%  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   35.2%  26.9%  23.3%  …   8.7%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           64.8%  54.9%  50.2%  …  25.8%

French Open Odds Update: 2nd round

64 men are out of the draw, with the usual handful of first-round surprises. Murray’s quarter has gotten even weaker with the early exit of Nicolas Almagro, while Berdych’s 1st-round defeat doesn’t affect Djokovic’s odds much.

Oddly enough, there are more very-lopsided matchups in the 2nd round than there were in the first. Nadal, del Potro, and Djokovic all have a 93% chance of advancing to the third round, while Federer is above 91%. The only two ultra-tight matchups this round are in Melzer’s section, where Kevin Anderson and Juan Ignacio Chela are close to dead even, and Carlos Berlocq is roughly equal with qualifer Lukasz Kubot.

Remarkably, 8 of the 16 qualifiers got through to the second round, while 2 of the 6 lucky losers did so. 3 of the 8 wild cards advanced, though one of those was a foregone conclusion, as two WCs faced off in the first round.

Here are the odds for the rest of the tournament:

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             93.9%  75.0%  63.5%  …  22.0%  
Pablo Andujar                6.1%   1.7%   0.4%  …   0.0%  
(q)Antonio Veic             17.7%   1.2%   0.3%  …   0.0%  
(28)Nikolay Davydenko       82.3%  22.1%  12.4%  …   0.7%  
(24)Sam Querrey             41.4%  16.6%   2.9%  …   0.1%  
Ivan Ljubicic               58.6%  27.4%   6.3%  …   0.2%  
Xavier Malisse              23.7%   8.6%   1.2%  …   0.0%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       76.3%  47.4%  13.0%  …   0.9%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(10)Mardy Fish              71.1%  42.1%  17.5%  …   0.7%  
Robin Haase                 28.9%  10.7%   2.6%  …   0.0%  
Jeremy Chardy               35.0%  13.6%   3.7%  …   0.0%  
(18)Gilles Simon            65.0%  33.7%  12.8%  …   0.4%  
(27)Marcos Baghdatis        67.8%  24.1%  12.6%  …   0.3%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           32.2%   6.1%   1.9%  …   0.0%  
(q)Albert Ramos             10.1%   2.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(5)Robin Soderling          89.9%  67.0%  48.3%  …   5.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(4)Andy Murray              89.1%  80.3%  64.1%  …   8.8%  
(LL)Simone Bolelli          10.9%   5.9%   2.1%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Arnaud Clement          41.3%   4.8%   1.2%  …   0.0%  
Michael Berrer              58.7%   8.9%   3.1%  …   0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     66.2%  33.7%  10.3%  …   0.2%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       33.8%  12.2%   2.6%  …   0.0%  
Tobias Kamke                26.6%   9.6%   1.8%  …   0.0%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          73.4%  44.5%  14.9%  …   0.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             50.6%  16.0%   4.1%  …   0.0%  
Carlos Berlocq              49.4%  15.6%   4.0%  …   0.0%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          24.1%  11.9%   2.8%  …   0.0%  
(20)Florian Mayer           75.9%  56.6%  27.0%  …   0.5%  
(32)Kevin Anderson          51.4%  14.4%   6.3%  …   0.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          48.6%  14.2%   6.1%  …   0.0%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              15.3%   5.8%   2.1%  …   0.0%  
(8)Jurgen Melzer            84.7%  65.6%  47.6%  …   2.5%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(7)David Ferrer             77.4%  53.7%  34.7%  …   2.4%  
Julien Benneteau            22.6%   9.0%   3.3%  …   0.0%  
Kei Nishikori               68.8%  29.3%  15.2%  …   0.3%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       31.2%   8.0%   2.7%  …   0.0%  
(q)Steve Darcis             30.0%   6.0%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
Philipp Petzschner          70.0%  24.1%   7.8%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Guillaume Rufin         17.0%   6.8%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
(9)Gael Monfils             83.0%  63.1%  33.9%  …   1.4%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      75.3%  43.0%  15.1%  …   0.6%  
(q)Thomas Schoorel          24.7%   8.0%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
Igor Andreev                25.5%   7.3%   1.1%  …   0.0%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      74.5%  41.7%  14.5%  …   0.6%  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        68.9%  15.1%   6.5%  …   0.1%  
Pere Riba                   31.1%   4.0%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Maxime Teixeira          8.2%   2.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer            91.8%  78.1%  59.8%  …  11.5%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(q)Stephane Robert          32.4%   9.3%   2.4%  …   0.0%  
Fabio Fognini               67.6%  29.0%  11.7%  …   0.0%  
(LL)Marsel Ilhan            31.9%  15.3%   5.3%  …   0.0%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  68.1%  46.4%  25.8%  …   0.2%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       21.4%   5.0%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
Albert Montanes             78.6%  39.3%  22.0%  …   0.2%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           31.2%  12.9%   5.3%  …   0.0%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         68.8%  42.8%  26.1%  …   0.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(13)Richard Gasquet         79.7%  55.2%  11.7%  …   1.5%  
Marcel Granollers           20.3%   7.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
Andreas Seppi               33.0%   8.6%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         67.0%  28.4%   4.0%  …   0.2%  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   93.4%  35.1%  27.6%  …   9.8%  
Blaz Kavcic                  6.6%   0.3%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
Victor Hanescu               4.1%   0.4%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           95.9%  64.2%  55.4%  …  27.6%

French Open Predictions

The qualifying rounds are over, and the draw is set.  I plugged the full 128-man bracket into my simulator, combined it with my most recent clay-specific rankings, and the full results are below.

A few quick hits on the draw and the simulation results:

  • All of the top three players have challenging draws.  Nadal faces Isner in the first, then possibly Davydenko in the third, Verdasco in the 4th, and Soderling in the quarters.  Federer drew Feliciano Lopez in the first.  And Djokovic got the worst possible outcome: Del Potro in the third.  There probably isn’t an upset there, but if anybody’s going to take Novak out before the final, Delpo’s my bet.
  • There are eight Americans in the draw.  The odds that a US player–any US player–wins the tourney is 0.83%.  The odds that all eight are knocked out in the first round?  0.85%.  Only Fish and Sweeting are favorites in their opening matches.
  • On the country-by-country theme, France has 20 men in the main draw, with a likelihood of just under 4% that a Frenchmen will win the title.  Spain has 14, for a total title shot of 26.4% — just below Djokovic’s chances by himself.
  • Some tight matchups in the first round: Fognini/Istomin, Hewitt/Montanes, Brands/Kukushkin, Paire/Hanescu (home court advantage flips that in Paire’s favor), Teixeira/Millot (two wild cards), Tomic/Berlocq, Gimeno-Traver/Haase, and Tursunov/Malisse.
  • The most lopsided first-rounder–according to the numbers–is Djokovic vs. de Bakker, followed by Andy Murray vs. Eric Prodon, the only two where my system gives the favorite a 90% chance of advancing.  There are plenty in the high 80’s, as well.

Here are the full simulation results:

Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             87.5%  81.4%  67.3%  …  21.30%  
John Isner                  12.5%   8.3%   4.2%  …   0.05%  
Santiago Giraldo            60.4%   6.9%   2.6%  …   0.01%  
Pablo Andujar               39.6%   3.5%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
Pablo Cuevas                67.0%  25.0%   4.0%  …   0.02%  
(q)Antonio Veic             33.0%   7.8%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
(q)Denis Gremelmayr         14.6%   4.8%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
(28)Nikolay Davydenko       85.4%  62.3%  19.8%  …   0.72%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(24)Sam Querrey             42.6%  20.5%   9.1%  …   0.04%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       57.4%  31.2%  15.7%  …   0.13%  
Ivan Ljubicic               72.0%  39.5%  20.6%  …   0.20%  
Somdev Devvarman            28.0%   8.8%   2.8%  …   0.00%  
Dmitry Tursunov             44.9%  12.1%   4.1%  …   0.00%  
Xavier Malisse              55.1%  16.4%   5.9%  …   0.01%  
Juan Monaco                 34.7%  21.0%   9.7%  …   0.04%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       65.3%  50.4%  32.1%  …   0.77%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(10)Mardy Fish              82.3%  59.3%  36.6%  …   0.70%  
Ricardo Mello               17.7%   6.5%   1.7%  …   0.00%  
Daniel Gimeno-Traver        47.9%  16.1%   6.2%  …   0.01%  
Robin Haase                 52.1%  18.1%   7.2%  …   0.02%  
Jeremy Chardy               52.5%  21.7%   9.1%  …   0.03%  
Grigor Dimitrov             47.5%  17.9%   7.2%  …   0.02%  
Michael Russell             16.0%   4.5%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
(18)Gilles Simon            84.0%  55.9%  31.0%  …   0.41%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(27)Marcos Baghdatis        71.6%  51.3%  20.0%  …   0.36%  
Frederico Gil               28.4%  14.1%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           58.4%  22.3%   5.0%  …   0.01%  
Dustin Brown                41.6%  12.3%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
(q)Albert Ramos             77.0%  10.8%   3.5%  …   0.00%  
(q)Javier Marti             23.0%   1.2%   0.1%  …   0.00%  
Benjamin Becker             10.4%   6.1%   2.1%  …   0.00%  
(5)Robin Soderling          89.6%  81.9%  64.0%  …   5.86%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(4)Andy Murray              91.0%  82.1%  60.3%  …   7.11%  
(q)Eric Prodon               9.0%   4.3%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Simon Bolelli           58.1%   8.6%   2.6%  …   0.01%  
(q)Frank Dancevic           41.9%   5.0%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Arnaud Clement          46.8%   9.2%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
Filippo Volandri            53.2%  12.0%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
Michael Berrer              19.2%  10.6%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
(26)Milos Raonic            80.8%  68.2%  29.4%  …   1.17%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     80.2%  48.8%  26.6%  …   0.14%  
Rainer Schuettler           19.8%   5.6%   1.4%  …   0.00%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       41.1%  16.6%   6.4%  …   0.00%  
Ryan Sweeting               58.9%  29.0%  13.7%  …   0.03%  
Tobias Kamke                39.2%  12.9%   4.8%  …   0.00%  
Olivier Rochus              60.8%  24.4%  11.5%  …   0.02%  
Julian Reister              27.6%  12.5%   4.7%  …   0.00%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          72.4%  50.1%  30.7%  …   0.22%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(11)Nicolas Almagro         82.4%  66.6%  46.5%  …   1.30%  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             17.6%   8.5%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
Carlos Berlocq              48.2%  11.6%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Bernard Tomic           51.8%  13.3%   5.0%  …   0.00%  
Potito Starace              55.8%  19.8%   6.4%  …   0.01%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          44.2%  13.4%   3.7%  …   0.00%  
Igor Kunitsyn               20.4%   8.3%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
(20)Florian Mayer           79.6%  58.5%  29.4%  …   0.36%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(32)Kevin Anderson          61.3%  34.3%  11.4%  …   0.02%  
Nicolas Mahut               38.7%  16.5%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          62.6%  33.8%  11.5%  …   0.02%  
(WC)Tim Smyczek             37.4%  15.3%   3.7%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Edouard Roger-Vasselin  54.4%  12.8%   6.0%  …   0.00%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              45.6%   9.4%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Andreas Beck            15.2%   7.6%   3.3%  …   0.00%  
(8)Jurgen Melzer            84.8%  70.2%  56.0%  …   2.09%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(7)David Ferrer             81.2%  65.7%  47.5%  …   2.54%  
Jarkko Nieminen             18.8%   9.9%   3.8%  …   0.00%  
Julien Benneteau            64.9%  18.2%   8.1%  …   0.03%  
Rui Machado                 35.1%   6.3%   1.8%  …   0.00%  
Kei Nishikori               78.9%  57.6%  27.6%  …   0.43%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 21.1%   9.2%   1.9%  …   0.00%  
(q)David Guez               32.2%   7.6%   1.4%  …   0.00%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       67.8%  25.6%   7.9%  …   0.01%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(22)Michael Llodra          73.5%  42.4%  17.7%  …   0.09%  
(q)Steve Darcis             26.5%   9.0%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
Philipp Petzschner          64.0%  34.4%  13.3%  …   0.03%  
Mischa Zverev               36.0%  14.2%   4.1%  …   0.01%  
Adrian Mannarino            56.9%  15.3%   6.6%  …   0.01%  
(WC)Guillaume Rufin         43.1%   9.6%   3.5%  …   0.00%  
(q)Bjorn Phau               12.1%   4.4%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(9)Gael Monfils             87.9%  70.6%  51.6%  …   1.45%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      85.8%  66.1%  40.1%  …   0.83%  
(q)Augustin Gensse          14.2%   5.2%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(q)Thomas Schoorel          55.6%  17.0%   6.2%  …   0.01%  
Maximo Gonzalez             44.4%  11.7%   3.8%  …   0.00%  
Florent Serra               37.4%   8.4%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
Igor Andreev                62.6%  19.4%   6.4%  …   0.01%  
Jan Hajek                   18.2%   8.4%   2.3%  …   0.00%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      81.8%  63.7%  37.8%  …   0.78%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        75.9%  46.3%  13.2%  …   0.11%  
Brian Dabul                 24.1%   8.1%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
Ivan Dodig                  61.9%  31.2%   7.7%  …   0.06%  
Pere Riba                   38.1%  14.4%   2.3%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Vincent Millot          46.5%   4.6%   1.5%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Maxime Teixeira         53.5%   6.1%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
Feliciano Lopez             23.4%  18.6%  11.9%  …   0.27%  
(3)Roger Federer            76.6%  70.7%  60.2%  …   9.85%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(6)Tomas Berdych            87.7%  68.0%  51.2%  …   1.58%  
(q)Stephane Robert          12.3%   3.9%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
Fabio Fognini               50.9%  15.1%   7.1%  …   0.01%  
Denis Istomin               49.1%  13.1%   6.3%  …   0.01%  
Tommy Haas                  26.8%   5.3%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Marsel Ilhan            73.2%  28.1%   7.4%  …   0.00%  
Robert Kendrick             22.6%   9.9%   1.9%  …   0.00%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  77.4%  56.7%  24.1%  …   0.13%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(19)Marin Cilic             88.4%  61.4%  42.6%  …   0.93%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       11.6%   2.7%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
Lleyton Hewitt              45.7%  14.7%   7.4%  …   0.03%  
Albert Montanes             54.3%  21.1%  11.2%  …   0.04%  
Daniel Brands               47.0%  15.8%   4.1%  …   0.00%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           53.0%  20.0%   5.7%  …   0.01%  
Go Soeda                    18.7%   6.8%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         81.3%  57.3%  26.9%  …   0.19%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(13)Richard Gasquet         69.1%  56.4%  40.9%  …   1.08%  
Radek Stepanek              30.9%  20.3%  10.8%  …   0.05%  
(LL)Alex Bogomolov Jr.      42.8%   8.7%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
Marcel Granollers           57.2%  14.6%   6.0%  …   0.00%  
Teymuraz Gabashvili         44.6%  12.8%   3.3%  …   0.00%  
Andreas Seppi               55.4%  20.6%   6.5%  …   0.01%  
Andrey Golubev              34.5%  20.1%   7.0%  …   0.01%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         65.5%  46.5%  22.5%  …   0.17%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   89.0%  72.9%  30.1%  …   8.40%  
Ivo Karlovic                11.0%   3.5%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
Ernests Gulbis              80.2%  21.5%   4.5%  …   0.20%  
Blaz Kavcic                 19.8%   2.0%   0.1%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Benoit Paire            51.7%   3.7%   0.5%  …   0.00%  
Victor Hanescu              48.3%   3.2%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
Thiemo De Bakker             6.3%   3.6%   0.6%  …   0.00%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           93.7%  89.5%  63.3%  …  27.42%

Rome Projections: Final 16

It’s tricky to do these at the beginning of tournaments this time of year — the first round is underway before the final of the previous event is over, and before the qualifying event is completed. But the schedule does tighten up later in the week, so it makes sense to run projections before the round of 16, all of those matches are set and none have been played.

I would make my usual comment about my system underrating Nadal’s dominance, but Rafa did lose a set today to Paolo Lorenzi. I don’t think Rafa will lose before the final, but it does put things in perspective a bit.

Player                    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Rafael Nadal        83.3% 69.2% 47.9% 31.1% 
Feliciano Lopez        16.7%  7.8%  2.4%  0.7% 
(11)Mardy Fish         47.9% 11.0%  3.6%  1.1% 
Marin Cilic            52.1% 12.1%  4.0%  1.1% 
(3)Roger Federer       80.6% 60.8% 31.1% 17.3% 
(16)Richard Gasquet    19.4%  8.9%  2.1%  0.5% 
(LL)Jarkko Nieminen    22.5%  2.8%  0.3%  0.0% 
(7)Tomas Berdych       77.5% 27.6%  8.5%  3.0%
 
Player                    QF    SF     F     W
Florian Mayer          70.4% 21.6%  4.5%  0.9% 
Juan Ignacio Chela     29.6%  4.8%  0.5%  0.1% 
Potito Starace         11.4%  3.9%  0.4%  0.0% 
(4)Andy Murray         88.6% 69.8% 29.4% 11.9% 
(5)Robin Soderling     62.7% 23.6% 13.6%  5.3% 
(9)Nicolas Almagro     37.3%  9.2%  4.1%  1.1% 
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 18.5%  7.7%  3.4%  0.9% 
(2)Novak Djokovic      81.5% 59.4% 44.0% 25.0%

Barcelona Projections

It’s not quite Monte Carlo, but it may be the strongest field of any ATP 500 this year. Below find the full draw, along with each player’s chances of reaching each round.

One thing you may notice is the relatively low chance of Nadal winning the tournament. Intuitively, it’s tough to imagine him losing. For this sort of projection, 39% is actually fairly high for any one player, but Nadal on clay, of course, is in a class by himself. If the sportsbooks odds last week are anything to go by, my system just isn’t built to handle such extreme players.

With all that said, there are definitely some interesting matchups in the early rounds, and some tight matches in the first round that might not otherwise make the headlines. My system stubbornly loves Davydenko, to the extent of making him the favorite over Dolgopolov tomorrow, something that very few humans outside the Davydenko family would agree with.

Enjoy!

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Rafael Nadal         100% 94.2% 85.2% 71.5% 52.1% 39.0% 
D Gimeno Traver          50%  3.0%  1.2%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0% 
Potito Starace           50%  2.7%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0% 
R Ramirez Hidalgo        40%  8.2%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Albert Ramos         60% 17.2%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Santiago Giraldo         37% 25.3%  2.8%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
(13)Thomaz Bellucci      63% 49.4%  8.1%  3.6%  1.2%  0.4% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(9)Richard Gasquet       70% 56.4% 29.0%  7.0%  2.7%  1.1% 
Juan Ignacio Chela       30% 18.2%  5.5%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0% 
Tobias Kamke             50% 12.5%  2.8%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Blaz Kavcic              50% 12.9%  2.9%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Flavio Cipolla        29%  3.7%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Robin Haase              71% 18.6%  7.9%  1.1%  0.2%  0.1% 
(7)Gael Monfils         100% 77.6% 50.9% 13.6%  5.6%  2.5% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(3)Robin Soderling      100% 91.5% 75.6% 55.9% 25.8% 16.2% 
(q)Vincent Millot        42%  3.0%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Ivan Dodig               58%  5.5%  2.0%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% 
Robert Kendrick          45%  9.2%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Simon Greul           55% 12.9%  1.4%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Radek Stepanek           38% 28.5%  5.9%  2.2%  0.4%  0.1% 
(15)Milos Raonic         62% 49.4% 13.5%  6.3%  1.4%  0.5% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(12)G Garcia Lopez       60% 36.1% 12.7%  3.3%  0.7%  0.2% 
Denis Istomin            40% 18.9%  5.0%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0% 
Feliciano Lopez          63% 31.2%  9.7%  2.2%  0.4%  0.1% 
Mikhail Kukushkin        37% 13.8%  3.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% 
Kei Nishikori            71% 22.7% 13.2%  3.6%  0.7%  0.2% 
Pere Riba                29%  4.4%  1.6%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(5)Tomas Berdych        100% 73.0% 54.8% 23.6%  7.8%  3.7% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(6)Jurgen Melzer        100% 78.5% 54.7% 26.7% 11.0%  3.1% 
Marcel Granollers        53% 12.0%  5.1%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0% 
Daniel Brands            47%  9.5%  3.8%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0% 
(q)Benoit Paire          74% 27.9%  7.8%  1.7%  0.3%  0.0% 
(WC)P Carreno Busta      26%  4.8%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Teymuraz Gabashvili      28% 14.4%  3.7%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0% 
(11)Albert Montanes      72% 52.8% 24.3%  8.8%  2.9%  0.5% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(14)Kevin Anderson       45% 18.1%  3.6%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0% 
Pablo Cuevas             55% 26.1%  5.7%  2.0%  0.4%  0.1% 
Andrey Golubev           69% 42.9% 13.0%  5.9%  1.7%  0.4% 
Victor Hanescu           31% 12.9%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
(q)Jarkko Nieminen       55%  8.4%  3.5%  1.2%  0.2%  0.0% 
Carlos Berlocq           45%  5.4%  2.1%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0% 
(4)David Ferrer         100% 86.2% 69.8% 48.7% 26.9% 10.6% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(8)Nicolas Almagro      100% 86.4% 56.5% 27.4% 14.6%  4.8% 
(WC)G Granollers Pujol   21%  1.0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Pablo Andujar            79% 12.6%  3.8%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% 
(WC)Andrey Kuznetsov     51%  9.8%  1.8%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0% 
(q)E Roger-Vasselin      49% 10.2%  1.8%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0% 
Nikolay Davydenko        60% 50.1% 24.8% 10.7%  5.4%  1.7% 
(10)Alexandr Dolgopolov  40% 29.8% 11.2%  3.9%  1.5%  0.3% 
                                                           
Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(16)(WC)Juan Monaco      67% 45.3% 13.4%  4.9%  1.9%  0.4% 
Grigor Dimitrov          33% 16.8%  2.9%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% 
Fabio Fognini            67% 29.1%  5.8%  1.7%  0.5%  0.1% 
(q)Simone Vagnozzi       33%  8.8%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Xavier Malisse           40%  5.0%  2.2%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% 
Juan Carlos Ferrero      60% 10.7%  5.8%  2.1%  0.7%  0.1% 
(2)Andy Murray          100% 84.2% 69.0% 46.7% 30.7% 13.6%

Monte Carlo Projections

Clay court rankings and projections are tough.  Most of the top 50 ATP players only compete on clay for a couple months of the year, so at the beginning of the clay-court swing, we’re using surface-specific results from almost a year ago; at the end, we’re depending heavily on each player’s recent results.

Of course, the very top of the list is easy.  Rafael Nadal hasn’t lost a clay court match since the 2009 French Open.  It gets messy soon after that, since Nadal left the rest of the field fighting for crumbs.  Roger Federer is the clear #2 in this field, with Andy Murray a distant third.  (And maybe he should be even more distant.)

These projections are clay-specific, as you can probably tell by some of the percentages.  My clay rankings, however, are heavily regressed back to overall rankings so, for instance, Milos Raonic gets plenty of credit for his recent success on hard courts.  (And today he justified that credit.)

The tournament organizers made it tough for me to do pure projections, since four main draw matches were complete by the time qualifiers were placed.  Thus, the numbers are below are done as if I didn’t know anything about the outcome of today’s main draw matches.  I used rankings generated last Monday, so I might be selling Potito Starace (and, to a lesser extent, Victor Hanescu) a little short by excluding results from Casablanca.

Enjoy!

 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(1)Rafael Nadal         100% 92.7% 79.9% 66.8% 52.4% 36.6%
(q)Julien Benneteau      54%  4.4%  1.7%  0.6%  0.2%  0.0%
Jarkko Nieminen          46%  2.9%  1.0%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
(q)Vincent Millot        26%  5.6%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez   74% 31.8%  5.5%  2.1%  0.7%  0.2%
Denis Istomin            27% 12.8%  1.3%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%
(13)Richard Gasquet      73% 49.8% 10.3%  5.3%  2.4%  0.9% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga   59% 35.2% 17.0%  4.0%  1.7%  0.6%
Juan Monaco              41% 21.6%  8.9%  1.8%  0.7%  0.2%
Ivan Ljubicic            55% 25.5% 10.5%  2.2%  0.9%  0.2%
Jeremy Chardy            45% 17.7%  6.3%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%
(q)Olivier Rochus        46%  8.7%  2.6%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela       54% 12.4%  4.2%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%
(5)(WC)Tomas Berdych    100% 78.9% 50.5% 14.7%  7.8%  3.2% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(3)(WC)Andy Murray      100% 70.6% 54.3% 38.4% 16.5%  8.7%
(WC)Radek Stepanek       30%  5.9%  2.5%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%
Marcos Baghdatis         70% 23.5% 14.5%  7.8%  2.3%  0.8%
Albert Montanes          64% 30.9%  8.9%  4.0%  0.8%  0.2%
Xavier Malisse           36% 11.1%  2.0%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%
Thomaz Bellucci          52% 30.9% 10.1%  4.7%  1.1%  0.3%
(16)Gilles Simon         48% 27.0%  7.7%  3.4%  0.7%  0.2% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(10)Mikhail Youzhny      52% 38.1% 18.3%  7.0%  1.7%  0.5%
Florian Mayer            48% 33.3% 13.8%  4.8%  1.1%  0.3%
(q)Frederico Gil         41% 10.2%  2.1%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%
Sergiy Stakhovsky        59% 18.4%  5.0%  1.1%  0.1%  0.0%
Daniel Gimeno-Traver     40%  7.9%  2.9%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%
Santiago Giraldo         60% 15.6%  6.6%  1.8%  0.2%  0.1%
(8)Gael Monfils         100% 76.5% 51.3% 24.7%  7.7%  3.0% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(6)Fernando Verdasco    100% 71.3% 54.5% 31.0% 13.6%  5.2%
Tommy Robredo            73% 24.6% 15.1%  5.7%  1.6%  0.4%
Ivan Dodig               27%  4.0%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%
Kevin Anderson           44% 16.8%  3.4%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%
Fabio Fognini            56% 24.1%  6.0%  1.5%  0.3%  0.0%
(WC)Jean-Rene Lisnard    14%  3.4%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%
(11)Viktor Troicki       86% 55.6% 19.2%  6.5%  1.7%  0.4% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
Ernests Gulbis           67% 44.8% 22.0% 12.2%  5.0%  1.8%
(14)Alexandr Dolgopolov  33% 16.9%  5.5%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1%
Milos Raonic             59% 24.4%  8.8%  3.9%  1.1%  0.3%
Michael Llodra           41% 13.9%  4.1%  1.4%  0.3%  0.1%
Janko Tipsarevic         55% 13.5%  5.3%  1.9%  0.4%  0.1%
Feliciano Lopez          45% 10.7%  3.7%  1.2%  0.3%  0.0%
(4)David Ferrer         100% 75.8% 50.7% 31.4% 14.3%  6.0% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(7)Jurgen Melzer        100% 54.7% 29.3%  9.3%  4.2%  1.3%
Nikolay Davydenko        72% 37.5% 20.3%  6.8%  3.2%  1.1%
Robin Haase              28%  7.8%  2.6%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%
(q)Maximo Gonzalez       55% 12.3%  2.8%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
Victor Hanescu           45%  8.6%  1.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%
Marcel Granollers        16%  8.5%  2.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
(9)Nicolas Almagro       84% 70.5% 41.1% 15.2%  7.7%  2.8% 

Player                   R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(15)Marin Cilic          86% 68.2% 19.9% 10.4%  4.8%  1.5%
(q)Filippo Volandri      14%  5.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%
(q)Pere Riba             43%  9.7%  1.0%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%
Potito Starace           57% 16.4%  1.7%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%
Philipp Kohlschreiber    61% 11.6%  6.4%  3.0%  1.2%  0.3%
Andrey Golubev           39%  5.2%  2.4%  0.9%  0.3%  0.1%
(2)Roger Federer        100% 83.2% 68.1% 52.6% 39.0% 22.1%