Category: Forecasting

ATP Cincinnati Predictions

If last week’s tournament in Montreal taught us anything, it’s that predicting the outcome of ATP matches is a fool’s errand.  With that in mind, let’s see what the draw has in store for us in Cinci!

The draw this week is what the Master’s series is all about.  With the exception of a couple of late withdrawals (Tsonga?) that may yet come down the pike, nearly every top player in the men’s game is in Cincinnati.  Andy Roddick is trying to return from injury; David Ferrer makes his summer hard-court debut, and we’re already set for a Federer/del Potro showdown in the second round.

Del Potro’s mere presence makes every tournament a little more interesting.  He’s laid a couple of eggs recently, losing to Gulbis and Cilic, but he tore up the spring hard court circuit and lost only to the best of the best on clay.  My ranking system still gives him a lot of respect, keeping him within the top five, which makes Federer’s route to the semifinals (heck, the third round!) look particularly challenging.

Djokovic (who, once again, is in Fed’s half) could face a slew of Americans on their home turf.  His probable second-round opponent is Ryan Harrison, who I favor heavily over Juan Ignacio Chela.  After that, it’s easy to see John Isner in the third round, and possibly Andy Roddick in the quarters.  It’s theoretically possible, but a little less likely that another American, James Blake, will make it through the semis to be Novak’s opponent in that round.

Here is my full projection.  For purity’s sake, it doesn’t reflect the results of today’s two matches, in which Delpo and Blake both advanced.

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          100.0%  90.1%  74.4%    29.61%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison           71.5%   8.6%   3.2%     0.07%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          28.5%   1.3%   0.3%     0.00%  
(q)Radek Stepanek           43.6%  18.2%   3.0%     0.09%  
John Isner                  56.4%  24.7%   5.0%     0.24%  
Andrey Golubev              23.2%   8.4%   1.0%     0.02%  
(16)Stanislas Wawrinka      76.8%  48.7%  13.0%     1.41%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(11)Andy Roddick            63.7%  43.3%  23.0%     1.34%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       36.3%  20.8%   9.1%     0.24%  
Juan Carlos Ferrero         23.9%   4.3%   0.9%     0.00%  
Feliciano Lopez             76.1%  31.6%  13.3%     0.29%  
Ivan Dodig                  39.4%  10.9%   3.9%     0.05%  
(q)Ernests Gulbis           60.6%  24.3%  11.6%     0.32%  
(6)Gael Monfils            100.0%  64.9%  38.2%     2.22%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(3)Roger Federer           100.0%  58.9%  44.5%    10.38%  
Juan Martin del Potro       82.9%  38.8%  27.9%     5.00%  
Andreas Seppi               17.1%   2.4%   0.8%     0.01%  
(WC)James Blake             23.3%   8.1%   1.1%     0.01%  
Marcos Baghdatis            76.7%  46.2%  15.2%     1.02%  
Fabio Fognini               26.1%   7.6%   0.9%     0.01%  
(14)Viktor Troicki          73.9%  38.1%   9.6%     0.40%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(9)Nicolas Almagro          62.0%  32.1%  14.0%     0.25%  
Albert Montanes             38.0%  13.8%   4.0%     0.03%  
Ivo Karlovic                32.6%  14.0%   4.6%     0.04%  
Florian Mayer               67.4%  40.2%  18.2%     0.56%  
Tommy Haas                  13.2%   0.8%   0.1%     0.00%  
Juan Monaco                 86.8%  28.8%  13.9%     0.21%  
(8)Tomas Berdych           100.0%  70.4%  45.3%     2.43%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(5)David Ferrer            100.0%  75.5%  44.7%     2.52%  
(q)Marsel Ilhan             38.3%   7.5%   1.9%     0.00%  
(WC)Grigor Dimitrov         61.7%  17.0%   6.0%     0.05%  
Janko Tipsarevic            70.3%  31.7%  15.3%     0.43%  
(q)Edouard Roger-Vasselin   29.7%   8.2%   2.2%     0.01%  
Jurgen Melzer               44.2%  25.0%  12.0%     0.35%  
(10)Gilles Simon            55.8%  35.2%  17.9%     0.72%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(15)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      57.2%  46.4%  19.8%     2.28%  
Marin Cilic                 42.8%  32.7%  12.2%     0.85%  
(q)Alex Bogomolov Jr        57.7%  13.7%   3.0%     0.04%  
(WC)Robby Ginepri           42.3%   7.2%   1.1%     0.01%  
(q)Kei Nishikori            46.5%  10.6%   4.5%     0.14%  
David Nalbandian            53.5%  13.1%   5.9%     0.27%  
(4)Andy Murray             100.0%  76.3%  53.6%    10.62%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(7)Mardy Fish              100.0%  63.6%  42.6%     3.59%  
Nikolay Davydenko           68.5%  28.8%  16.7%     0.99%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           31.5%   7.6%   3.0%     0.04%  
Xavier Malisse              55.4%  21.5%   6.7%     0.11%  
Kevin Anderson              44.6%  15.4%   4.5%     0.04%  
Alexandr Dolgopolov         47.8%  29.6%  12.4%     0.39%  
(12)Richard Gasquet         52.2%  33.4%  14.0%     0.52%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(13)Mikhail Youzhny         54.6%  28.3%   7.7%     0.41%  
Michael Llodra              45.4%  20.5%   4.9%     0.17%  
Thomaz Bellucci             36.9%  15.1%   3.1%     0.05%  
Fernando Verdasco           63.1%  36.0%  10.4%     0.61%  
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez      60.5%  13.3%   6.3%     0.19%  
(q)Julien Benneteau         39.5%   4.9%   1.8%     0.03%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            100.0%  81.8%  65.8%    18.36%

ATP Montreal Predictions

The big boys are back in action with this week’s Masters 1000 tournament in Montreal.  I’ve updated my rankings and generated some predictions for this week’s matches.  My system doesn’t give any credit to defending champions, so Andy Murray is in a distant third, while Djokovic’s chances of winning the tournament are lessened a bit by finding himself in the same half of the bracket as Federer.

If you’re visiting for the first time, or the first time since last week, you may be interested in the variety of content I posted over the weekend:

Once you’ve caught up, enjoy my forecast for this week’s Rogers Cup, below.

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          100.0%  81.1%  59.3%    23.27%  
Nikolay Davydenko           78.8%  17.5%   7.9%     0.70%  
(q)Flavio Cipolla           21.2%   1.4%   0.2%     0.00%  
Andreas Seppi               30.4%   6.9%   1.0%     0.02%  
Marin Cilic                 69.6%  27.5%   7.2%     0.61%  
Jarkko Nieminen             14.9%   4.9%   0.7%     0.01%  
(16)Juan Martin Del Potro   85.1%  60.6%  23.8%     5.21%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(12)Viktor Troicki          81.3%  40.4%  19.1%     0.49%  
(q)Michael Yani             18.7%   3.3%   0.6%     0.00%  
Marcos Baghdatis            57.5%  34.7%  17.9%     0.78%  
John Isner                  42.5%  21.7%   9.7%     0.19%  
(q)Alex Bogomolov Jr        41.7%  10.7%   3.4%     0.02%  
Adrian Mannarino            58.3%  19.1%   7.8%     0.10%  
(5)Gael Monfils            100.0%  70.3%  41.5%     2.19%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(3)Roger Federer           100.0%  91.7%  63.9%    15.48%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          52.4%   4.4%   0.9%     0.00%  
(WC)Vasek Pospisil          47.6%   3.9%   0.7%     0.00%  
(WC)Bernard Tomic           67.8%  29.9%   9.1%     0.51%  
(LL)Yen Hsun Lu             32.2%   9.3%   1.6%     0.02%  
Fabio Fognini               17.3%   5.3%   0.8%     0.01%  
(13)Jo Wilfried Tsonga      82.7%  55.4%  22.9%     2.84%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(10)Richard Gasquet         52.9%  34.9%  19.5%     0.60%  
Florian Mayer               47.1%  30.1%  16.9%     0.51%  
Andrey Golubev              42.9%  13.9%   5.3%     0.04%  
Thomaz Bellucci             57.1%  21.1%   9.1%     0.10%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           38.9%  16.3%   6.6%     0.06%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       61.1%  31.5%  16.4%     0.37%  
(8)Nicolas Almagro         100.0%  52.1%  26.1%     0.46%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(6)Mardy Fish              100.0%  67.4%  43.5%     3.65%  
Feliciano Lopez             53.7%  16.4%   8.0%     0.16%  
(SE)Radek Stepanek          46.3%  16.1%   7.0%     0.11%  
(WC)Ernests Gulbis          78.1%  41.7%  18.7%     0.56%  
Juan Carlos Ferrero         21.9%   5.3%   0.9%     0.00%  
Michael Llodra              46.3%  23.9%   8.8%     0.20%  
(11)Mikhail Youzhny         53.7%  29.1%  13.1%     0.44%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      59.5%  48.6%  20.7%     1.84%  
David Nalbandian            40.5%  30.2%   9.1%     0.39%  
(q)Michael Russell          37.4%   6.0%   0.7%     0.00%  
Albert Montanes             62.6%  15.2%   2.5%     0.02%  
Pablo Andujar               23.1%   1.4%   0.2%     0.00%  
Kevin Anderson              76.9%  12.7%   4.6%     0.08%  
(4)Andy Murray             100.0%  86.0%  62.1%    12.44%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           100.0%  60.8%  37.2%     2.20%  
Alexandr Dolgopolov         93.0%  38.8%  21.6%     0.78%  
(WC)Erik Chvojka             7.0%   0.4%   0.0%     0.00%  
Ivo Karlovic                38.8%  15.2%   4.7%     0.04%  
Juan Monaco                 61.2%  27.4%  10.4%     0.21%  
(q)Philipp Petzschner       34.4%  16.3%   5.5%     0.07%  
(9)Gilles Simon             65.6%  41.1%  20.7%     0.88%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(15)Fernando Verdasco       72.5%  44.2%  12.1%     0.65%  
(q)Tobias Kamke             27.5%   9.8%   1.4%     0.01%  
Janko Tipsarevic            70.6%  36.4%   9.8%     0.39%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          29.4%   9.7%   1.4%     0.01%  
Ivan Dodig                  44.4%   6.5%   2.7%     0.04%  
Jeremy Chardy               55.6%   9.7%   4.6%     0.13%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            100.0%  83.8%  68.0%    20.10%

Live Wimbledon Odds

In conjunction with the work I’m doing for the Wall Street Journal’s Tennis Tracker, I’m generating a lot more data than they are able to show.  So, you can now see updated odds for each player in both the men’s and women’s singles draw, updated several times per hour.  Here are the links:

You can see the pre-tournament odds here and here.

Wimbledon Women’s Draw Predictions

The women’s field is more tightly packed than the men’s, especially with Kim Clijsters out of action.  As such, my algorithm gives only Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka better than a 10-to-1 shot of winning Wimbledon.  Serena and Venus Williams, of course, are wild cards–it’s easy to see Serena winning it all, or crashing out early from injury or rust.

Here is the full draw breakdown:

Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Caroline Wozniacki           94.0%  77.1%  65.9%    15.03%  
Arantxa Parra Santonja        6.0%   1.5%   0.5%     0.00%  
Sania Mirza                  26.0%   3.1%   1.2%     0.00%  
Virginie Razzano             74.0%  18.2%  11.3%     0.30%  
Anastasia Rodionova          58.4%  19.4%   3.0%     0.01%  
Andrea Hlavackova            41.6%  10.9%   1.3%     0.00%  
Alona Bondarenko             50.3%  35.2%   8.7%     0.11%  
Jarmila Gajdosova            49.7%  34.4%   8.3%     0.11%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Dominika Cibulkova           85.6%  64.5%  43.8%     1.98%  
Mirjana Lucic                14.4%   4.8%   1.4%     0.00%  
Polona Hercog                53.6%  17.0%   7.8%     0.03%  
Johanna Larsson              46.4%  13.6%   5.8%     0.01%  
Mathilde Johansson           39.1%   8.0%   1.5%     0.00%  
Heather Watson               60.9%  17.3%   4.4%     0.01%  
Anabel Medina Garrigues      26.3%  15.6%   4.6%     0.01%  
Julia Goerges                73.7%  59.0%  30.7%     0.66%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Samantha Stosur              81.6%  65.4%  38.3%     2.17%  
Melinda Czink                18.4%   8.8%   2.4%     0.00%  
Anastasiya Yakimova          48.5%  12.2%   3.5%     0.00%  
Sofia Arvidsson              51.5%  13.6%   4.0%     0.01%  
Elena Baltacha               64.2%  18.4%   6.6%     0.02%  
Mona Barthel                 35.8%   6.8%   1.6%     0.00%  
Kirsten Flipkens             21.2%  11.2%   3.8%     0.02%  
Shuai Peng                   78.9%  63.6%  39.9%     2.70%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Lucie Safarova               69.1%  42.3%  18.7%     0.44%  
Lucie Hradecka               30.9%  13.1%   3.7%     0.01%  
Klara Zakopalova             81.7%  41.1%  16.1%     0.23%  
Emily Webley-Smith           18.3%   3.5%   0.5%     0.00%  
Angelique Kerber             64.6%  15.7%   6.1%     0.02%  
Laura Robson                 35.4%   5.2%   1.4%     0.00%  
Anna Chakvetadze             25.1%  16.2%   7.8%     0.08%  
Maria Sharapova              74.9%  62.9%  45.7%     4.54%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Na Li                        84.1%  60.8%  46.2%     5.66%  
Alla Kudryavtseva            15.9%   5.2%   2.0%     0.00%  
Sabine Lisicki               54.1%  19.2%  10.9%     0.24%  
Anastasija Sevastova         45.9%  14.7%   7.7%     0.11%  
Jie Zheng                    86.6%  51.9%  18.9%     0.31%  
Zuzana Ondraskova            13.4%   2.8%   0.3%     0.00%  
Misaki Doi                   22.1%   5.5%   0.7%     0.00%  
Bethanie Mattek-Sands        77.9%  39.9%  13.3%     0.15%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Ana Ivanovic                 68.6%  55.8%  33.6%     1.87%  
Melanie Oudin                31.4%  20.8%   8.8%     0.07%  
Coco Vandeweghe              53.5%  13.1%   4.0%     0.01%  
Eleni Daniilidou             46.5%  10.3%   2.9%     0.00%  
Kristina Barrois             64.9%  17.2%   5.5%     0.01%  
Petra Cetkovska              35.1%   6.1%   1.3%     0.00%  
Olga Govortsova              20.2%  11.1%   3.4%     0.01%  
Agnieszka Radwanska          79.8%  65.7%  40.5%     2.34%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Marion Bartoli               88.5%  78.3%  47.8%     3.02%  
Kristyna Pliskova            11.5%   5.6%   1.1%     0.00%  
Lourdes Dominguez Lino       45.7%   6.9%   1.4%     0.00%  
Romina Oprandi               54.3%   9.2%   2.0%     0.00%  
Evgeniya Rodina              51.2%  11.3%   2.7%     0.00%  
Chanelle Scheepers           48.8%  10.1%   2.4%     0.00%  
Irina-Camelia Begu           14.5%   6.8%   1.5%     0.00%  
Flavia Pennetta              85.5%  71.8%  41.1%     2.36%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Maria Kirilenko              79.4%  57.5%  24.8%     0.61%  
Alberta Brianti              20.6%   8.4%   1.6%     0.00%  
Tamarine Tanasugarn          39.8%  11.5%   2.2%     0.00%  
Yaroslava Shvedova           60.2%  22.6%   6.0%     0.01%  
Simona Halep                 48.7%  11.6%   5.1%     0.02%  
Bojana Jovanovski            51.3%  12.7%   5.9%     0.04%  
Aravane Rezai                25.1%  14.9%   7.9%     0.09%  
Serena Williams              74.9%  60.8%  46.4%     5.54%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Francesca Schiavone          70.3%  49.3%  30.5%     0.96%  
Jelena Dokic                 29.7%  14.8%   6.1%     0.03%  
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova   57.8%  22.5%  10.0%     0.05%  
Aleksandra Wozniak           42.2%  13.4%   5.0%     0.01%  
Ayumi Morita                 44.0%  14.7%   5.2%     0.01%  
Tamira Paszek                56.0%  21.7%   9.0%     0.04%  
Christina McHale             31.1%  15.8%   6.2%     0.02%  
Ekaterina Makarova           68.9%  47.9%  27.9%     0.70%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Shahar Peer                  77.8%  58.9%  30.1%     1.15%  
Ksenia Pervak                22.2%  10.6%   2.7%     0.00%  
Sorana Cirstea               65.7%  22.9%   7.3%     0.03%  
Pauline Parmentier           34.3%   7.6%   1.5%     0.00%  
Irina Falconi                56.0%  10.1%   2.7%     0.00%  
Stephanie Dubois             44.0%   7.1%   1.8%     0.00%  
Stephanie Foretz Gacon       11.8%   5.7%   1.5%     0.00%  
Andrea Petkovic              88.2%  77.2%  52.4%     4.11%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova     86.2%  59.1%  38.5%     2.28%  
Lesia Tsurenko               13.8%   3.8%   0.9%     0.00%  
Vesna Dolonts                26.3%   6.0%   1.7%     0.00%  
Nadia Petrova                73.7%  31.1%  16.2%     0.32%  
Kateryna Bondarenko          53.7%  24.2%   9.5%     0.12%  
Alize Cornet                 46.3%  19.3%   7.2%     0.07%  
Sara Errani                  35.3%  16.6%   5.9%     0.05%  
Kaia Kanepi                  64.7%  40.0%  20.1%     0.62%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Daniela Hantuchova           86.5%  70.1%  28.5%     1.40%  
Vitalia Diatchenko           13.5%   5.4%   0.6%     0.00%  
Kai-Chen Chang               56.0%  14.7%   2.6%     0.01%  
Marina Erakovic              44.0%   9.8%   1.4%     0.00%  
Sandra Zahlavova             26.6%   2.8%   0.7%     0.00%  
Iveta Benesova               73.4%  17.3%   7.9%     0.10%  
Magdalena Rybarikova         16.6%   9.0%   3.9%     0.04%  
Victoria Azarenka            83.4%  70.8%  54.5%    10.87%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Petra Kvitova                89.6%  79.6%  63.3%     7.16%  
Alexa Glatch                 10.4%   5.0%   1.6%     0.00%  
Naomi Broady                 38.9%   4.8%   1.3%     0.00%  
Anne Keothavong              61.1%  10.6%   3.9%     0.01%  
Rebecca Marino               66.9%  22.5%   5.2%     0.01%  
Patricia Mayr-Achleitner     33.1%   6.6%   0.9%     0.00%  
Vera Dushevina               47.6%  33.4%  10.8%     0.11%  
Roberta Vinci                52.4%  37.5%  12.9%     0.17%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Yanina Wickmayer             80.9%  66.9%  34.8%     1.28%  
Varvara Lepchenko            19.1%  10.1%   2.4%     0.00%  
Anastasia Pivovarova         49.0%  10.9%   2.3%     0.00%  
Anna Tatishvili              51.0%  12.0%   2.6%     0.00%  
Jill Craybas                 27.7%   4.4%   1.1%     0.00%  
Alexandra Dulgheru           72.3%  21.4%   8.9%     0.05%  
Shuai Zhang                  14.7%   6.2%   1.9%     0.00%  
Svetlana Kuznetsova          85.3%  68.0%  46.1%     3.25%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Jelena Jankovic              58.7%  44.3%  24.0%     0.97%  
Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez  41.3%  28.3%  13.0%     0.27%  
Monica Niculescu             48.4%  12.9%   3.7%     0.01%  
Sybille Bammer               51.6%  14.6%   4.5%     0.01%  
Katie O'Brien                26.3%   3.8%   0.7%     0.00%  
Kimiko Date-Krumm            73.7%  22.1%   8.4%     0.04%  
Akgul Amanmuradova           14.9%   6.4%   1.6%     0.00%  
Venus Williams               85.1%  67.7%  44.0%     2.94%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Tsvetana Pironkova           75.0%  41.3%  10.3%     0.08%  
Camila Giorgi                25.0%   7.4%   0.8%     0.00%  
Vania King                   54.9%  29.4%   6.6%     0.02%  
Petra Martic                 45.1%  22.0%   4.3%     0.01%  
Elena Vesnina                84.3%  26.9%  18.2%     0.48%  
Laura Pous-Tio               15.7%   1.5%   0.4%     0.00%  
Alison Riske                 10.4%   3.1%   1.3%     0.00%  
Vera Zvonareva               89.6%  68.4%  58.0%     9.23%

Wimbledon Men’s Draw Predictions

After several days of delays in qualifying, the Wimbledon main draws are finally complete.  As expected, Novak Djokovic is the favorite, with a 21.6% chance of winning.  Federer is next, at 14.3%, and Nadal is close behind, at 13.6%.  It’s Rafa’s turn to line up against dark horse Juan Martin del Potro–they are positioned for a fourth-round clash.

A few other notes about the draw:

  • It’s easy to imagine that all qualifiers are alike, but my system has no respect for Frenchman Kenny De Schepper.  He has less a 10% shot at beating Olivier Rochus.
  • Speaking of qualifiers, Marinko Matosevic drew 25th-seed Juan Ignacio Chela, whose ranking is largely due to his strong performance (and weak draw) in Paris.  Chela is not much of a hard court threat, so while Matosevic is hardly a threat in his own right, the Aussie is favored.
  • The Matosevic/Chela matchup could also benefit an American.  Alex Bogomolov and Donald Young will play for a chance to face the winner of Matosevic/Chela, giving either US player a good chance of reaching the third round.  After that it’s Tomas Berdych, and it’s probably over.
  • Several qualifiers are favored to reach the second round, partly because of a few Q vs. Q (or Q vs. lucky loser) matchups.  One such qualifier is Lukasz Kubot, who I predict will beat wild card Arnaud Clement.
  • Another one?  Ryan Harrison, in as a LL, faces Ivan Dodig.  Dodig has climbed the rankings this season, but my system puts him a tiny margin behind the American.
  • Of the top four, Roger Federer has the easiest route to the semis.  It looks like David Nalbandian in the third, Almagro, Youhzny, or maybe Isner in the fourth, and Ferrer or Tsonga in the quarters.

Here is the full breakdown:

Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             92.9%  84.1%  68.2%      13.60%  
Michael Russell              7.1%   3.2%   0.9%       0.00%  
Pablo Andujar               27.8%   2.0%   0.4%       0.00%  
Ryan Sweeting               72.2%  10.7%   4.1%       0.02%  
Gilles Muller               74.2%  21.8%   3.6%       0.01%  
Tommy Haas                  25.8%   3.4%   0.2%       0.00%  
Fabio Fognini               27.5%  16.7%   3.1%       0.02%  
(31)Milos Raonic            72.5%  58.0%  19.4%       0.65%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(24)Juan Martin Del Potro   90.4%  73.9%  57.8%       7.49%  
Flavio Cipolla               9.6%   3.8%   1.2%       0.00%  
Olivier Rochus              90.1%  21.9%  10.4%       0.05%  
Kenny De Schepper            9.9%   0.4%   0.0%       0.00%  
Frederico Gil               42.4%  12.8%   2.4%       0.00%  
Dudi Sela                   57.6%  22.4%   5.2%       0.03%  
Edouard Roger-Vasselin      23.7%  10.1%   2.1%       0.00%  
(15)Gilles Simon            76.3%  54.8%  21.0%       0.52%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(10)Mardy Fish              71.4%  48.3%  33.1%       1.81%  
Marcel Granollers           28.6%  13.0%   6.3%       0.03%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       64.3%  28.3%  16.1%       0.27%  
Denis Istomin               35.7%  10.3%   4.2%       0.01%  
Robin Haase                 67.8%  21.3%   6.0%       0.01%  
Pere Riba                   32.2%   5.8%   0.9%       0.00%  
Radek Stepanek              39.8%  27.0%  11.7%       0.10%  
(21)Fernando Verdasco       60.2%  45.8%  21.7%       0.45%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(25)Juan Ignacio Chela      44.2%  15.9%   3.6%       0.00%  
Marinko Matosevic           55.8%  24.6%   6.1%       0.00%  
Donald Young                52.5%  31.6%  10.8%       0.02%  
Alex Bogomolov Jr           47.5%  27.9%   8.4%       0.02%  
Ruben Bemelmans             34.4%   7.4%   3.2%       0.00%  
Julien Benneteau            65.6%  21.2%  12.7%       0.06%  
Filippo Volandri             6.3%   1.1%   0.2%       0.00%  
(6)Tomas Berdych            93.7%  70.3%  55.0%       2.47%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(4)Andy Murray              87.9%  77.2%  57.4%       9.55%  
Daniel Gimeno-Traver        12.1%   6.2%   2.0%       0.00%  
Tobias Kamke                47.4%   7.5%   2.2%       0.00%  
Blaz Kavcic                 52.6%   9.0%   2.8%       0.01%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           83.3%  26.2%   6.6%       0.04%  
Daniel Cox                  16.7%   1.6%   0.1%       0.00%  
Ivan Ljubicic               39.3%  26.1%   9.4%       0.17%  
(27)Marin Cilic             60.7%  46.0%  19.5%       1.02%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(17)Richard Gasquet         70.1%  54.5%  26.9%       0.66%  
Santiago Giraldo            29.9%  17.9%   5.8%       0.01%  
Igor Kunitsyn               47.3%  12.4%   3.0%       0.00%  
Igor Sijsling               52.7%  15.2%   4.0%       0.00%  
Martin Fischer              56.4%  10.6%   3.3%       0.00%  
Simone Bolelli              43.6%   6.5%   1.6%       0.00%  
Potito Starace              10.6%   4.8%   1.2%       0.00%  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      89.4%  78.1%  54.2%       3.00%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(9)Gael Monfils             77.0%  61.6%  43.5%       2.31%  
Matthias Bachinger          23.0%  12.1%   5.3%       0.02%  
Grega Zemlja                42.6%  10.0%   3.7%       0.01%  
Lukas Lacko                 57.4%  16.3%   6.9%       0.02%  
Arnaud Clement              42.5%  12.3%   3.1%       0.00%  
Lukasz Kubot                57.5%  19.9%   6.1%       0.01%  
Ivo Karlovic                39.5%  24.6%  10.5%       0.06%  
(23)Janko Tipsarevic        60.5%  43.2%  20.9%       0.28%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(30)Thomaz Bellucci         71.0%  34.8%  13.8%       0.10%  
Rainer Schuettler           29.0%   8.2%   1.9%       0.00%  
Feliciano Lopez             63.3%  39.1%  16.3%       0.16%  
Michael Berrer              36.7%  17.9%   5.9%       0.02%  
Jaroslav Pospisil           26.3%   2.6%   0.4%       0.00%  
Victor Hanescu              73.7%  16.6%   5.9%       0.00%  
Andreas Beck                17.3%   9.6%   3.4%       0.00%  
(8)Andy Roddick             82.7%  71.1%  52.3%       2.71%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(7)David Ferrer             83.8%  59.7%  42.0%       1.80%  
Benoit Paire                16.2%   5.3%   1.8%       0.00%  
Ivan Dodig                  49.2%  17.0%   8.5%       0.04%  
Ryan Harrison               50.8%  18.0%   9.3%       0.07%  
Carlos Berlocq              28.6%   4.2%   0.5%       0.00%  
Karol Beck                  71.4%  20.6%   5.2%       0.00%  
Andrey Golubev              36.1%  24.6%   9.2%       0.04%  
(26)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  63.9%  50.5%  23.4%       0.35%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(22)Alexandr Dolgopolov     82.7%  70.5%  38.6%       1.21%  
Fernando Gonzalez           17.3%   9.6%   2.4%       0.00%  
Rik De Voest                72.0%  16.7%   3.8%       0.01%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       28.0%   3.2%   0.4%       0.00%  
Grigor Dimitrov             75.1%  25.1%  11.0%       0.07%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe         24.9%   4.1%   1.0%       0.00%  
Go Soeda                    18.0%   7.4%   2.4%       0.00%  
(12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      82.0%  63.4%  40.5%       2.10%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(16)Nicolas Almagro         60.6%  32.7%  16.9%       0.19%  
Jarkko Nieminen             39.4%  17.3%   7.5%       0.04%  
John Isner                  71.0%  39.5%  20.5%       0.24%  
Nicolas Mahut               29.0%  10.5%   3.5%       0.00%  
Somdev Devvarman            63.0%  20.5%   8.2%       0.03%  
Denis Gremelmayr            37.0%   8.2%   2.4%       0.00%  
Juan Monaco                 47.6%  33.1%  17.7%       0.24%  
(18)Mikhail Youzhny         52.4%  38.2%  23.2%       0.46%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(28)David Nalbandian        76.7%  58.3%  19.2%       0.53%  
Julian Reister              23.3%  11.1%   1.6%       0.00%  
Florent Serra               53.1%  16.7%   2.5%       0.00%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       46.9%  13.8%   1.9%       0.00%  
Adrian Mannarino            73.0%  17.0%   9.4%       0.12%  
Conor Niland                27.0%   2.9%   0.9%       0.00%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           13.5%   6.3%   3.0%       0.02%  
(3)Roger Federer            86.5%  73.8%  61.4%      14.27%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(5)Robin Soderling          75.8%  52.9%  36.8%       3.13%  
Philipp Petzschner          24.2%  10.5%   4.8%       0.06%  
Kei Nishikori               57.3%  22.1%  11.6%       0.25%  
Lleyton Hewitt              42.7%  14.4%   6.8%       0.08%  
Igor Andreev                56.6%  19.3%   5.6%       0.02%  
Teymuraz Gabashvili         43.4%  11.9%   2.8%       0.00%  
Bernard Tomic               32.5%  19.2%   6.5%       0.06%  
(29)Nikolay Davydenko       67.5%  49.6%  25.2%       1.28%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(20)Florian Mayer           83.0%  55.7%  33.4%       0.83%  
Daniel Evans                17.0%   5.2%   1.3%       0.00%  
Xavier Malisse              53.4%  21.2%   9.4%       0.05%  
Mischa Zverev               46.6%  17.9%   7.3%       0.02%  
Ernests Gulbis              51.0%  24.1%  11.6%       0.07%  
Dmitry Tursunov             49.0%  22.4%   9.9%       0.06%  
Alejandro Falla             27.8%  11.2%   3.8%       0.01%  
(11)Jurgen Melzer           72.2%  42.3%  23.2%       0.43%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(13)Viktor Troicki          87.5%  56.2%  36.7%       0.74%  
Maximo Gonzalez             12.5%   2.4%   0.5%       0.00%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 35.6%  11.8%   5.0%       0.01%  
Tommy Robredo               64.4%  29.6%  17.2%       0.10%  
Ricardo Mello               41.9%  11.6%   2.9%       0.00%  
Frank Dancevic              58.1%  20.6%   6.8%       0.01%  
James Ward                  36.7%  21.7%   8.3%       0.02%  
(19)Michael Llodra          63.3%  46.0%  22.5%       0.26%  
                                                             
Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  
(32)Marcos Baghdatis        79.3%  56.1%  17.8%       1.10%  
James Blake                 20.7%   8.7%   1.2%       0.00%  
Andreas Seppi               49.1%  17.4%   3.1%       0.02%  
Albert Montanes             50.9%  17.8%   3.0%       0.03%  
Kevin Anderson              60.7%  10.8%   4.6%       0.04%  
Illya Marchenko             39.3%   4.5%   1.5%       0.00%  
Jeremy Chardy               13.4%   8.2%   4.1%       0.09%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           86.6%  76.5%  64.7%      21.58%

French Open Odds Update: Quarterfinals

The draw looked odd this morning — Andy Murray and Viktor Troicki were still in the fourth round, while Novak Djokovic was safely in the semis following Fabio Fognini’s withdrawal. (Djokovic’s odds of advancing didn’t change much with Fognini’s withdrawal!)

Now that things are back to normal, we can update the odds. My rankings make Novak the 2-1 favorite to reach the final over Federer–probably a little optimistic for Roger, but you have to admit, the Swiss has looked surprisingly good this week. Largely thanks to Djokovic, there’s a 60% chance that the tournament winner comes from the bottom half.

Here are the odds for the remaining players:

Player                  SF      F      W  
(1)Rafael Nadal      68.9%  49.6%  24.9%  
(5)Robin Soderling   31.1%  17.1%   5.1%  
(4)Andy Murray       86.8%  32.1%  10.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela   13.2%   1.1%   0.1%  
(3)Roger Federer    100.0%  33.1%  16.2%  
(2)Novak Djokovic   100.0%  66.9%  43.8%

French Open Odds Update: 4th Round

With Juan Martin del Potro out of the way, Novak Djokovic is once again the odds-on favorite to win the French Open. His chances of winning are up to 38.7%, while Rafael Nadal’s haven’t budged much, now sitting at 25.8%.

Djokovic seems set to cruise into the semifinals, at least. Tomorrow he’ll face Richard Gasquet, and then in the quarters it gets even easier, with either Fabio Fognini or Albert Montanes. Things have worked out nicely for another Serbian, as well. Viktor Troicki will play Andy Murray–not the easiest draw, of course, but made easier by Murray’s ankle-twisting today. And whoever comes out of that match should be able to reach a semifinal date with Nadal, as the next opponent will be either Alejandro Falla or Juan Ignacio Chela.

Here are the full odds:

Player                     QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Rafael Nadal         84.4%  61.5%  46.8%  25.8%  
Ivan Ljubicic           15.6%   4.9%   2.0%   0.4%  
(18)Gilles Simon        28.7%   6.4%   2.7%   0.6%  
(5)Robin Soderling      71.3%  27.1%  16.4%   5.9%  
(4)Andy Murray          76.0%  67.0%  27.3%  10.1%  
(15)Viktor Troicki      24.0%  16.9%   3.2%   0.5%  
(q)Alejandro Falla      40.7%   5.4%   0.5%   0.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela      59.3%  10.7%   1.2%   0.1%  
                                                    
Player                     QF     SF      F      W  
(7)David Ferrer         55.8%  22.4%   6.9%   2.7%  
(9)Gael Monfils         44.2%  15.7%   3.9%   1.3%  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka  25.6%  10.8%   2.4%   0.7%  
(3)Roger Federer        74.4%  51.0%  21.8%  11.1%  
Fabio Fognini           38.5%   3.0%   0.5%   0.1%  
Albert Montanes         61.5%   6.3%   1.4%   0.2%  
(13)Richard Gasquet     17.5%  13.5%   5.5%   1.8%  
(2)Novak Djokovic       82.5%  77.2%  57.5%  38.7%

French Open Odds Update: 3rd Round

Three-quarters of the field has been eliminated, and we’re left with 32 men standing. Who’s left: 6 of the top 8, 13 of the top 16, and 21 of the top 32. All the wild cards and lucky losers are out (though Marsel Ilhan went down fighting!) but of the 11 unseeded players still in the draw, an amazing six are qualifiers.

In the odds below, you might notice an interesting twist. Suddenly, Nadal is the favorite! As Juan Martin del Potro has taken care of business and ensured a third-round clash with Novak Djokovic, Djokovic’s chances of reaching each successive round have decreased. But the men in Nadal’s section have done him favors–especially qualifier Antonio Veic, who knocked out Nikolay Davydenko today. The Russian is always a threat, but I don’t think we can say the same about Veic.

Nadal’s chances are up to 26.9%, while Djokovic’s have fallen to 25.8%. Of course, both of those numbers are far beyond anyone else in the field. On the other end, qualifiers Veic and Steve Darcis have the smallest chances of winning the title–they each won it all only once per 50,000 simulations. The qualifier with the best chance is Lukasz Kubot, who is about 15 times more likely than Darcis to take home his first grand slam championship. 

Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             95.4%  78.9%  59.0%  …  26.9%  
(q)Antonio Veic              4.6%   0.9%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
Ivan Ljubicic               40.6%   7.4%   2.6%  …   0.2%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       59.4%  12.8%   5.8%  …   0.9%  
(10)Mardy Fish              54.4%  21.1%   5.3%  …   0.7%  
(18)Giles Simon             45.6%  16.1%   3.9%  …   0.4%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           14.6%   4.1%   0.5%  …   0.0%  
(5)Robin Soderling          85.4%  58.7%  22.8%  …   5.8%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(4)Andy Murray              88.7%  68.7%  60.9%  …  10.6%  
Michael Berrer              11.3%   3.4%   1.7%  …   0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     44.2%  11.6%   7.9%  …   0.2%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          55.9%  16.4%  11.8%  …   0.5%  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             51.0%  22.5%   3.6%  …   0.0%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          49.0%  22.0%   3.5%  …   0.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          60.9%  36.4%   7.6%  …   0.1%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              39.1%  19.2%   3.0%  …   0.0%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
(7)David Ferrer             81.0%  49.2%  22.2%  …   3.0%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       19.0%   5.9%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
(q)Steve Darcis             14.6%   2.3%   0.2%  …   0.0%  
(9)Gael Monfils             85.4%  42.7%  17.1%  …   1.6%  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      50.2%  16.0%   7.1%  …   0.6%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      49.8%  16.0%   7.1%  …   0.6%  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        18.0%   7.0%   2.5%  …   0.1%  
(3)Roger Federer            82.0%  61.0%  42.7%  …  10.6%  
                                                           
Player                        R16     QF     SF         W  
Fabio Fognini               36.6%  13.2%   1.3%  …   0.0%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  63.4%  33.1%   4.8%  …   0.3%  
Albert Montanes             43.1%  22.3%   2.7%  …   0.1%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         56.9%  31.4%   5.4%  …   0.3%  
(13)Richard Gasquet         63.6%  13.3%   9.4%  …   1.5%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         36.4%   4.9%   2.9%  …   0.2%  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   35.2%  26.9%  23.3%  …   8.7%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           64.8%  54.9%  50.2%  …  25.8%

French Open Odds Update: 2nd round

64 men are out of the draw, with the usual handful of first-round surprises. Murray’s quarter has gotten even weaker with the early exit of Nicolas Almagro, while Berdych’s 1st-round defeat doesn’t affect Djokovic’s odds much.

Oddly enough, there are more very-lopsided matchups in the 2nd round than there were in the first. Nadal, del Potro, and Djokovic all have a 93% chance of advancing to the third round, while Federer is above 91%. The only two ultra-tight matchups this round are in Melzer’s section, where Kevin Anderson and Juan Ignacio Chela are close to dead even, and Carlos Berlocq is roughly equal with qualifer Lukasz Kubot.

Remarkably, 8 of the 16 qualifiers got through to the second round, while 2 of the 6 lucky losers did so. 3 of the 8 wild cards advanced, though one of those was a foregone conclusion, as two WCs faced off in the first round.

Here are the odds for the rest of the tournament:

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             93.9%  75.0%  63.5%  …  22.0%  
Pablo Andujar                6.1%   1.7%   0.4%  …   0.0%  
(q)Antonio Veic             17.7%   1.2%   0.3%  …   0.0%  
(28)Nikolay Davydenko       82.3%  22.1%  12.4%  …   0.7%  
(24)Sam Querrey             41.4%  16.6%   2.9%  …   0.1%  
Ivan Ljubicic               58.6%  27.4%   6.3%  …   0.2%  
Xavier Malisse              23.7%   8.6%   1.2%  …   0.0%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       76.3%  47.4%  13.0%  …   0.9%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(10)Mardy Fish              71.1%  42.1%  17.5%  …   0.7%  
Robin Haase                 28.9%  10.7%   2.6%  …   0.0%  
Jeremy Chardy               35.0%  13.6%   3.7%  …   0.0%  
(18)Gilles Simon            65.0%  33.7%  12.8%  …   0.4%  
(27)Marcos Baghdatis        67.8%  24.1%  12.6%  …   0.3%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           32.2%   6.1%   1.9%  …   0.0%  
(q)Albert Ramos             10.1%   2.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(5)Robin Soderling          89.9%  67.0%  48.3%  …   5.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(4)Andy Murray              89.1%  80.3%  64.1%  …   8.8%  
(LL)Simone Bolelli          10.9%   5.9%   2.1%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Arnaud Clement          41.3%   4.8%   1.2%  …   0.0%  
Michael Berrer              58.7%   8.9%   3.1%  …   0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     66.2%  33.7%  10.3%  …   0.2%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       33.8%  12.2%   2.6%  …   0.0%  
Tobias Kamke                26.6%   9.6%   1.8%  …   0.0%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          73.4%  44.5%  14.9%  …   0.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             50.6%  16.0%   4.1%  …   0.0%  
Carlos Berlocq              49.4%  15.6%   4.0%  …   0.0%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          24.1%  11.9%   2.8%  …   0.0%  
(20)Florian Mayer           75.9%  56.6%  27.0%  …   0.5%  
(32)Kevin Anderson          51.4%  14.4%   6.3%  …   0.0%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          48.6%  14.2%   6.1%  …   0.0%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              15.3%   5.8%   2.1%  …   0.0%  
(8)Jurgen Melzer            84.7%  65.6%  47.6%  …   2.5%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(7)David Ferrer             77.4%  53.7%  34.7%  …   2.4%  
Julien Benneteau            22.6%   9.0%   3.3%  …   0.0%  
Kei Nishikori               68.8%  29.3%  15.2%  …   0.3%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       31.2%   8.0%   2.7%  …   0.0%  
(q)Steve Darcis             30.0%   6.0%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
Philipp Petzschner          70.0%  24.1%   7.8%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Guillaume Rufin         17.0%   6.8%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
(9)Gael Monfils             83.0%  63.1%  33.9%  …   1.4%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      75.3%  43.0%  15.1%  …   0.6%  
(q)Thomas Schoorel          24.7%   8.0%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
Igor Andreev                25.5%   7.3%   1.1%  …   0.0%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      74.5%  41.7%  14.5%  …   0.6%  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        68.9%  15.1%   6.5%  …   0.1%  
Pere Riba                   31.1%   4.0%   1.0%  …   0.0%  
(WC)Maxime Teixeira          8.2%   2.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer            91.8%  78.1%  59.8%  …  11.5%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(q)Stephane Robert          32.4%   9.3%   2.4%  …   0.0%  
Fabio Fognini               67.6%  29.0%  11.7%  …   0.0%  
(LL)Marsel Ilhan            31.9%  15.3%   5.3%  …   0.0%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  68.1%  46.4%  25.8%  …   0.2%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       21.4%   5.0%   1.4%  …   0.0%  
Albert Montanes             78.6%  39.3%  22.0%  …   0.2%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           31.2%  12.9%   5.3%  …   0.0%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         68.8%  42.8%  26.1%  …   0.3%  
                                                           
Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(13)Richard Gasquet         79.7%  55.2%  11.7%  …   1.5%  
Marcel Granollers           20.3%   7.8%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
Andreas Seppi               33.0%   8.6%   0.6%  …   0.0%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         67.0%  28.4%   4.0%  …   0.2%  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   93.4%  35.1%  27.6%  …   9.8%  
Blaz Kavcic                  6.6%   0.3%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
Victor Hanescu               4.1%   0.4%   0.1%  …   0.0%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           95.9%  64.2%  55.4%  …  27.6%

French Open Predictions

The qualifying rounds are over, and the draw is set.  I plugged the full 128-man bracket into my simulator, combined it with my most recent clay-specific rankings, and the full results are below.

A few quick hits on the draw and the simulation results:

  • All of the top three players have challenging draws.  Nadal faces Isner in the first, then possibly Davydenko in the third, Verdasco in the 4th, and Soderling in the quarters.  Federer drew Feliciano Lopez in the first.  And Djokovic got the worst possible outcome: Del Potro in the third.  There probably isn’t an upset there, but if anybody’s going to take Novak out before the final, Delpo’s my bet.
  • There are eight Americans in the draw.  The odds that a US player–any US player–wins the tourney is 0.83%.  The odds that all eight are knocked out in the first round?  0.85%.  Only Fish and Sweeting are favorites in their opening matches.
  • On the country-by-country theme, France has 20 men in the main draw, with a likelihood of just under 4% that a Frenchmen will win the title.  Spain has 14, for a total title shot of 26.4% — just below Djokovic’s chances by himself.
  • Some tight matchups in the first round: Fognini/Istomin, Hewitt/Montanes, Brands/Kukushkin, Paire/Hanescu (home court advantage flips that in Paire’s favor), Teixeira/Millot (two wild cards), Tomic/Berlocq, Gimeno-Traver/Haase, and Tursunov/Malisse.
  • The most lopsided first-rounder–according to the numbers–is Djokovic vs. de Bakker, followed by Andy Murray vs. Eric Prodon, the only two where my system gives the favorite a 90% chance of advancing.  There are plenty in the high 80’s, as well.

Here are the full simulation results:

Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             87.5%  81.4%  67.3%  …  21.30%  
John Isner                  12.5%   8.3%   4.2%  …   0.05%  
Santiago Giraldo            60.4%   6.9%   2.6%  …   0.01%  
Pablo Andujar               39.6%   3.5%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
Pablo Cuevas                67.0%  25.0%   4.0%  …   0.02%  
(q)Antonio Veic             33.0%   7.8%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
(q)Denis Gremelmayr         14.6%   4.8%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
(28)Nikolay Davydenko       85.4%  62.3%  19.8%  …   0.72%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(24)Sam Querrey             42.6%  20.5%   9.1%  …   0.04%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       57.4%  31.2%  15.7%  …   0.13%  
Ivan Ljubicic               72.0%  39.5%  20.6%  …   0.20%  
Somdev Devvarman            28.0%   8.8%   2.8%  …   0.00%  
Dmitry Tursunov             44.9%  12.1%   4.1%  …   0.00%  
Xavier Malisse              55.1%  16.4%   5.9%  …   0.01%  
Juan Monaco                 34.7%  21.0%   9.7%  …   0.04%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       65.3%  50.4%  32.1%  …   0.77%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(10)Mardy Fish              82.3%  59.3%  36.6%  …   0.70%  
Ricardo Mello               17.7%   6.5%   1.7%  …   0.00%  
Daniel Gimeno-Traver        47.9%  16.1%   6.2%  …   0.01%  
Robin Haase                 52.1%  18.1%   7.2%  …   0.02%  
Jeremy Chardy               52.5%  21.7%   9.1%  …   0.03%  
Grigor Dimitrov             47.5%  17.9%   7.2%  …   0.02%  
Michael Russell             16.0%   4.5%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
(18)Gilles Simon            84.0%  55.9%  31.0%  …   0.41%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(27)Marcos Baghdatis        71.6%  51.3%  20.0%  …   0.36%  
Frederico Gil               28.4%  14.1%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           58.4%  22.3%   5.0%  …   0.01%  
Dustin Brown                41.6%  12.3%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
(q)Albert Ramos             77.0%  10.8%   3.5%  …   0.00%  
(q)Javier Marti             23.0%   1.2%   0.1%  …   0.00%  
Benjamin Becker             10.4%   6.1%   2.1%  …   0.00%  
(5)Robin Soderling          89.6%  81.9%  64.0%  …   5.86%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(4)Andy Murray              91.0%  82.1%  60.3%  …   7.11%  
(q)Eric Prodon               9.0%   4.3%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Simon Bolelli           58.1%   8.6%   2.6%  …   0.01%  
(q)Frank Dancevic           41.9%   5.0%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Arnaud Clement          46.8%   9.2%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
Filippo Volandri            53.2%  12.0%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
Michael Berrer              19.2%  10.6%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
(26)Milos Raonic            80.8%  68.2%  29.4%  …   1.17%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     80.2%  48.8%  26.6%  …   0.14%  
Rainer Schuettler           19.8%   5.6%   1.4%  …   0.00%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       41.1%  16.6%   6.4%  …   0.00%  
Ryan Sweeting               58.9%  29.0%  13.7%  …   0.03%  
Tobias Kamke                39.2%  12.9%   4.8%  …   0.00%  
Olivier Rochus              60.8%  24.4%  11.5%  …   0.02%  
Julian Reister              27.6%  12.5%   4.7%  …   0.00%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          72.4%  50.1%  30.7%  …   0.22%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(11)Nicolas Almagro         82.4%  66.6%  46.5%  …   1.30%  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             17.6%   8.5%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
Carlos Berlocq              48.2%  11.6%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Bernard Tomic           51.8%  13.3%   5.0%  …   0.00%  
Potito Starace              55.8%  19.8%   6.4%  …   0.01%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          44.2%  13.4%   3.7%  …   0.00%  
Igor Kunitsyn               20.4%   8.3%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
(20)Florian Mayer           79.6%  58.5%  29.4%  …   0.36%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(32)Kevin Anderson          61.3%  34.3%  11.4%  …   0.02%  
Nicolas Mahut               38.7%  16.5%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          62.6%  33.8%  11.5%  …   0.02%  
(WC)Tim Smyczek             37.4%  15.3%   3.7%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Edouard Roger-Vasselin  54.4%  12.8%   6.0%  …   0.00%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              45.6%   9.4%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Andreas Beck            15.2%   7.6%   3.3%  …   0.00%  
(8)Jurgen Melzer            84.8%  70.2%  56.0%  …   2.09%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(7)David Ferrer             81.2%  65.7%  47.5%  …   2.54%  
Jarkko Nieminen             18.8%   9.9%   3.8%  …   0.00%  
Julien Benneteau            64.9%  18.2%   8.1%  …   0.03%  
Rui Machado                 35.1%   6.3%   1.8%  …   0.00%  
Kei Nishikori               78.9%  57.6%  27.6%  …   0.43%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 21.1%   9.2%   1.9%  …   0.00%  
(q)David Guez               32.2%   7.6%   1.4%  …   0.00%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       67.8%  25.6%   7.9%  …   0.01%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(22)Michael Llodra          73.5%  42.4%  17.7%  …   0.09%  
(q)Steve Darcis             26.5%   9.0%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
Philipp Petzschner          64.0%  34.4%  13.3%  …   0.03%  
Mischa Zverev               36.0%  14.2%   4.1%  …   0.01%  
Adrian Mannarino            56.9%  15.3%   6.6%  …   0.01%  
(WC)Guillaume Rufin         43.1%   9.6%   3.5%  …   0.00%  
(q)Bjorn Phau               12.1%   4.4%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(9)Gael Monfils             87.9%  70.6%  51.6%  …   1.45%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      85.8%  66.1%  40.1%  …   0.83%  
(q)Augustin Gensse          14.2%   5.2%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(q)Thomas Schoorel          55.6%  17.0%   6.2%  …   0.01%  
Maximo Gonzalez             44.4%  11.7%   3.8%  …   0.00%  
Florent Serra               37.4%   8.4%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
Igor Andreev                62.6%  19.4%   6.4%  …   0.01%  
Jan Hajek                   18.2%   8.4%   2.3%  …   0.00%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      81.8%  63.7%  37.8%  …   0.78%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        75.9%  46.3%  13.2%  …   0.11%  
Brian Dabul                 24.1%   8.1%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
Ivan Dodig                  61.9%  31.2%   7.7%  …   0.06%  
Pere Riba                   38.1%  14.4%   2.3%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Vincent Millot          46.5%   4.6%   1.5%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Maxime Teixeira         53.5%   6.1%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
Feliciano Lopez             23.4%  18.6%  11.9%  …   0.27%  
(3)Roger Federer            76.6%  70.7%  60.2%  …   9.85%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(6)Tomas Berdych            87.7%  68.0%  51.2%  …   1.58%  
(q)Stephane Robert          12.3%   3.9%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
Fabio Fognini               50.9%  15.1%   7.1%  …   0.01%  
Denis Istomin               49.1%  13.1%   6.3%  …   0.01%  
Tommy Haas                  26.8%   5.3%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Marsel Ilhan            73.2%  28.1%   7.4%  …   0.00%  
Robert Kendrick             22.6%   9.9%   1.9%  …   0.00%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  77.4%  56.7%  24.1%  …   0.13%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(19)Marin Cilic             88.4%  61.4%  42.6%  …   0.93%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       11.6%   2.7%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
Lleyton Hewitt              45.7%  14.7%   7.4%  …   0.03%  
Albert Montanes             54.3%  21.1%  11.2%  …   0.04%  
Daniel Brands               47.0%  15.8%   4.1%  …   0.00%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           53.0%  20.0%   5.7%  …   0.01%  
Go Soeda                    18.7%   6.8%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         81.3%  57.3%  26.9%  …   0.19%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(13)Richard Gasquet         69.1%  56.4%  40.9%  …   1.08%  
Radek Stepanek              30.9%  20.3%  10.8%  …   0.05%  
(LL)Alex Bogomolov Jr.      42.8%   8.7%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
Marcel Granollers           57.2%  14.6%   6.0%  …   0.00%  
Teymuraz Gabashvili         44.6%  12.8%   3.3%  …   0.00%  
Andreas Seppi               55.4%  20.6%   6.5%  …   0.01%  
Andrey Golubev              34.5%  20.1%   7.0%  …   0.01%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         65.5%  46.5%  22.5%  …   0.17%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   89.0%  72.9%  30.1%  …   8.40%  
Ivo Karlovic                11.0%   3.5%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
Ernests Gulbis              80.2%  21.5%   4.5%  …   0.20%  
Blaz Kavcic                 19.8%   2.0%   0.1%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Benoit Paire            51.7%   3.7%   0.5%  …   0.00%  
Victor Hanescu              48.3%   3.2%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
Thiemo De Bakker             6.3%   3.6%   0.6%  …   0.00%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           93.7%  89.5%  63.3%  …  27.42%