Category: Daily recaps

Sunday Topspin: Young and Restless

Upset central: Indian Wells is turning into a huge event for American tennis.  As I noted yesterday, U.S. players took six of their seven first round matches.  I assumed that all those qualifiers and wild cards would collapse in the second round once they started playing the big boys.

Not exactly.  To start with, Donald Young beat Andy Murray in straight sets.  I was only able to watch the first-set tiebreak, but as usual, we can cast this match as a Murray disappointment, not necessarily a Young triumph.  The Brit was counterpunching against a guy without a lot of big weapons, and wasn’t doing it well enough.

Murray made fewer than half of first serves, and even against a qualifier, that’s not going to do the job.  Young made only 53% of his first offerings, but managed to win nearly half of his second serve points, while Murray won nearly a quarter.  Ugly match for Andy.

That said, it is a huge step for Young.  After that tiebreak, I assumed Murray would put his game back together and Young would collapse under the pressure.  If anything, the exact opposite happened.  The upset is the best result of Young’s career–by far–and allows us all to remember that he’s still only 21, younger than the likes of Alexandr Dolgopolov, Ernests Gulbis, and Thiemo de Bakker, and only a few months older than Kei Nishikori.

Murray was the American’s first top-10 scalp–indeed, the only matches I found where Donald beat a top-50 player were two victories over Feliciano Lopez.  Wow.

The other two American qualifiers in action went to three sets in equally surprising fashion.  Ryan Sweeting, coming off a solid week in Delray Beach and a clean win over Marcel Granollers, beat Juan Monaco with one of the weirdest scores you’ll ever see: 6-1, 0-6, 6-1.  Despite his reputation as a clay-courter, Monaco has posted some good results on hard courts, so I didn’t see this one coming.

Tim Smyczek lost his match to Phillip Kohlschreiber, but he will go home proud of his effort.  Outside of the top 150 for his entire career, he edged past Ilya Marchenko in the first round, and took Kohlschreiber to a third-set tiebreak.

Finally, if we’re keeping score for the Americans, we have to mention Sam Querrey‘s straight-set win over Janko Tipsarevic and Michael Russell‘s loss to Nicholas Almagro.  That’s 9 wins in 12 matches so far for the locals.

More upsets: Somdev Devvarman scored a victory almost as big as Young’s.  Marcos Baghdatis is as inconsistent as it gets, and Devvarman simply outran him, winning the second set 6-0.  Perhaps the Indian’s solid showing against Federer in Dubai and in Davis Cup have given him some confidence; it’s quite possibly his best career match result, and only the second time he’s beaten a top-20 player.

Two matches I didn’t see: David Ferrer lost to Ivo Karlovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga fell to Xavier Malisse.

All these upsets really open up the draw.  Tsonga and Baghdatis were set up for a third-round match; instead, it’s Devvarman and Malisse.  The winner will face Rafael Nadal in the fourth round, meaning that Rafa (assuming he beats Sweeting tomorrow) won’t face a seeded player until at least the quarters.

What to watch: For the second, round, there are some phenomenal matches on the slate:

  • Milos Raonic vs. Mardy Fish: A big test for the Canadian.  Sportsbooks give Raonic a 58% chance of winning; that’s really saying something against a hard-court-friendly U.S. player inside the top 20.  The winner is probably punching his ticket to a fourth-round matchup with Roger Federer.
  • Nikolay Davydenko vs. Stanislas Wawrinka: My ranking system still loves Davydenko on hard courts, thanks in part to his win over Nadal in January.  Wawrinka, though, has to be considered the steadier player at this point; Vegas odds favor the Swiss at about 57%.
  • Andy Roddick vs. James Blake: Even though we know how this one’s going to turn out, there will be some spectacular shotmaking along the way, and the crowd will love it.
  • Novak Djokovic vs. Andrey Golubev: Remember, Golubev just won two matches in Davis Cup, including the triumph against Tomas Berdych.  He’ll make Djokovic work for this one.

See you tomorrow!

Saturday Topspin: American Underdogs

Good day for teens: It wasn’t easy, but both Bernard Tomic and Ryan Harrison find themselves in the second round at Indian Wells.  Tomic had a  hard-fought match against surprise qualifier and doubles specialist Rohan Bopanna, splitting two tiebreaks before the Aussie came out ahead in the third.  The two players won 75% of points on serve, an astonishingly high number for both sides to sustain.

Harrison’s match looks similar–two tiebreaks then a third set with a wider margin, but the profile is far different.  He and Jeremy Chardy broke each other seven times in a total of 22 break chances.  Harrison advances to face Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, while Tomic draws Viktor Troicki.

Doubles upsets: When Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal win matches, you usually don’t think of them as upsets, but when they are playing doubles against the likes of Mirnyi/Nestor and Fyrstenberg/Matkowski?  Not only did Federer and Nadal win their matches, but Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray did, as well.

Come to think of it, this doubles draw is astonishingly good, and not just in the sense that it’s star-studded.  Tournament organizers like their top seeds to play doubles to draw the crowds, and often those players make quick exits, as when Djokovic partnered with his brother in Dubai.  But Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka are Olympic champions, Nadal and Marc Lopez are the defending champions, and Murray and his brother won a title recently.

Most of the marquee doubles matches were on yesterday’s schedule, but today, Bopanna and Aisam Qureshi play their, opener, and the Bryan Brothers face the very unlikely team of Feliciano Lopez and Milos Raonic.  Is that more or less likely than Harrison and Thomaz Bellucci?  If only there were more televised doubles.

Home court advantage: Not only did Harrison win yesterday, but James Blake was also victorious.  Blake broke Chris Guccione three times, somehow winning 39% of return points.  That sounds a bit like the Blake of old, and we’ll probably get to enjoy it for exactly one more match this week, as he’ll play Andy Roddick in a promoter’s dream match tomorrow.

If my count is right, that’s six wins in seven tries for Americans so far–only Alex Bogomolov failed to advance.  Even more impressive, virtually every one of those Americans was the underdog, at least on paper.  Of the six winners, four were qualifiers and two were wild cards.

Of course, there are four more Americans in the draw; they got to the second round by virtue of their seeding.  Of those four, Sam Querrey is the only one in action today, playing Janko Tipsarevic; as a sign of how far Querrey’s stock has fallen, sportsbooks are giving Tipsarevic a 59% chance of winning the match.

Yes, he won: No shocker here, Raonic defeated Marsel Ilhan in straight sets.  It was his first 1000-level win.  He recorded 10 aces in the process, perhaps on his way to setting more records.  Sunday he faces Mardy Fish.

Elsewhere: Qualifer Cedrik-Marcel Stebe defeated top seed Go Soeda in Kyoto to reach the final there.  It’s only Stebe’s third tournament this year and his first challenger, but he’s undefeated thus far.  He’ll play countryman Dominik Meffert today for the title.

At the Sarajevo challenger, the scores are more interesting than the players.  All four quarterfinal matches were decided in straight sets, and six of those eight sets were won in tiebreaks.  Dmitri Tursunov lost to Bosnian wild card Mirza Basic; the second set tiebreak went to 13-11.

Today’s matches: Now that the seeds are in action, there are some higher-profile contests.  My pick is the first match on Stadium 2, pitting Fernando Verdasco against Richard Berankis.  Verdasco hasn’t won a match since his back-to-back losses against Raonic.  You have to imagine the Spainard will come through (sportsbooks give him a 75% chance), but you never really know where Verdasco’s head is.

Enjoy the tennis!

Friday Topspin: Bopanna, Blake, and a Bagel

If you’ve found your way here from the Wall Street Journal, welcome! If you don’t know what I’m talking about, go read what Carl Bialik has to say in today’s paper, and in an online follow-up.  I’ve written at length about my rankings and prediction system and published full odds for Indian Wells here.

Big day for qualifiers: 10 of the 12 qualifiers played in opening round at Indian Wells yesterday, and six of those came through with victories, including four Americans.  Because the top 32 players are seeded with byes, those six qualifier wins don’t include any massive upsets, but that doesn’t take away from the individual accomplishments.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is Michael Russell‘s victory over Kevin Anderson–Anderson is near his career high ranking and is only six weeks removed from his first career title.  Also of note is Ryan Sweeting‘s win against Marcel Granollers, a strong player on hard courts.

There are only two qualifiers in the bottom half of the draw: Rohan Bopanna, who plays the young Aussie Bernard Tomic, and Chris Guccione, who drew James Blake.

Del Potro serves a bagel: Radek Stepanek may be past his prime, but he’s still a tricky opponent.  That didn’t stop Juan Martin del Potro, who defeated the Czech 6-4 6-0.  Del Potro won an astonishing 58% of points against Stepanek’s first serve.

Next, the Argentine faces Ivan Ljubicic, and he has to be favored in that match as well.  Sure, Ljubicic is the defending champion, but his body isn’t 100%, and we have to resume looking at del Potro the way we saw him 18 months ago–he’s certainly playing that way.

On the card: The two best matches today are the ones with qualifiers involved.  Guccione played two solid matches in qualifying, going straight sets in both, needing a tiebreak only once.  Both contests were against Spanish clay-courters, though, so they hardly guarantee a good showing against Blake.  Their styles presage quite the battle, as the match pits Guccione’s serve against Blake’s once world-class return game.

And then there is Bopanna-Tomic.  Tomic is rapidly becoming a tennis “bad boy,” and not in the vaguely charming sense of Andre Agassi wanting to wear black at Wimbledon.  Bopanna, on the other hand, is impossible not to like, between his inspirational doubles partnership with Aisam Qureshi, his persistence in singles, and his hard-fought battle in last weekend’s Davis Cup.

Betting odds heavily favor Tomic, as does common sense.  But if you’re ever going to cheer for an underdog, this is the time to do it.

Everybody in: When I said “best matches” a moment ago, I might have been limiting myself to singles.  Seven of the top 10 singles players in the world are playing doubles–and that’s just on today’s schedule.

Last week I marveled at the doubles entry list, saying that “for now, all that’s missing is Federer/Wawrinka.”  Not any more.  The Swiss players are not only in the draw, but they’re on Stadium 1 today, facing in the second seeds Max Mirnyi and Daniel Nestor.  Rafael Nadal and Marc Lopez are also playing a center-court doubles match today.

More results: Indian Wells is rightfully dominating our attention, but there’s still plenty of tennis being played elsewhere.

I haven’t mentioned the Kyoto challenger at all this week–not that great of a draw, really.  But credit where credit is due: Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, a 20-year-old German, qualified for the main draw and has since plowed through the likes of Yuichi Sugita and Andre Begemann to reach the semifinals.  He’s building a great start to the season, having won two futures tournaments in Turkey.  This week’s showing should get him into the top 300 for the first time.

In Texas at USA F7, Devin Britton has qualified and reach the quarters, his best result since last September.  Also in the quarters is Wayne Odesnik, who isn’t finding the level of competition very challenging.

A little later on today, I’ll post the hard-court-specific rankings generated by my system.  Be sure to check back in a few hours.

Thursday Topspin: Rohan Bopanna, Singles Champion

Indians at Indian Wells: It’s no surprise that Somdev Devvarman came through qualifying–he was the second seed and won both his matches in straight sets.  Rohan Bopanna, on the other hand–he may have been the lowest ranked player in the qualifying draw.

Yet, after a tough three-setter against Peter Polansky and a tight two-tiebreak match against top seed Daniel Brands, Bopanna finds himself in the main draw.  This is the first time he’s made it this far in singles at a 1000-level event.  He’ll face wild card Bernard Tomic in the first round.  If he wins, he faces none other than Viktor Troicki, the man who he pushed to five sets in Davis Cup last week.

Opportunities for qualifiers: The 96-player draw is unusual, and it gives a big opportunity to qualifiers and others who just missed the cut.  In most draws, non-seeded players can show up just to face Rafael Nadal in the first round.  Here, you’re guaranteed to get at least one match against someone outside the top 30.

A couple of players in position to take advantage of the format are Ryan Sweeting and Matthew Ebden.  Sweeting plays the Spainard Marcel Granollers in the first round and would then face Juan Monaco, one of the most beatable seeds in the tourney.  Ebden battles Mischa Zverev for a chance to play Tommy Robredo.

Match of the day: The top half of the draw is in action, meaning a lot of qualifiers get to play their third match in three days.  That doesn’t apply, however, to the marquee event: Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Radek Stepanek.  Stepanek can be a challenge for any player, and that might be particularly true for Del Potro, who has faced a barrage of aggressive big servers in Memphis and Delray Beach.

If I were setting the schedule, the undercard would be the matchup of Richard Berankis and Alex Bogomolov Jr. Bogie is playing well, having just won the title in Dallas and qualified here, and of course Berankis has big potential.

Elsewhere: Speaking of big potential, Grigor Dimitrov isn’t going to display it this week.  Seeded #1 in Sarajevo, he lost in the first round to Karol Beck.  That means no semifinal matchup with Dmitri Tursunov, though the Russian is through to the second round thanks to an injury to Igor Sijsling.

Miami wild cards: We’re already talking about the next tournament, apparently.  Miami has given main draw slots to James Blake, Ryan Harrison, Jack Sock, Milos Raonic, and Tomic.  I’m a bit surprised by the love for Tomic stateside; yes, he’s young and talented, but he’s only a fan favorite until the fans get to know him.  After he showed up in Dallas and tanked a match, you have to wonder why the Miami tournament is doing this for him.

After all, I’m guessing Evgeny Donskoy is available.

See you tomorrow!

Wednesday Topspin: Start hydrating

Indian Wells draw: The most interesting quarter, by far is Robin Soderling‘s.  In the first round, Juan Martin Del Potro must face Radek Stepanek–most likely an easy match for the Argentine, but with both players’ health issues, you never know.  The winner plays defending champion Ivan Ljubicic–again, an outcome that will depend in part on injury status.

The winner of that match will probably play Alexandr Dolgopolov, and whoever comes out on top then, most likely, gets Soderling.

In the other half of that quarter are Andy Murray and Fernando Verdasco, both guys with a shot at winning the tournament.  Verdasco, however, will probably need to beat Richard Berankis in his first match.

Also of note: James Blake faces a qualifier in the first round, and if he wins, he draws Andy Roddick.  Milos Raonic opens up against Marsel Ilhan, and the winner faces Mardy Fish.  Raonic-Fish could easily be the highlight of the second round.  Another potential second-rounder is Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori, assuming Nishikori beats Igor Andreev.

It’s nice to have all the top players in the world together again, isn’t it?

Speaking of Milos: Raonic’s rapid rise is creating all sorts of oddities.  He’s currently ranked 37th, and since he doesn’t have many points to defend, a decent performance at either Indian Wells or Miami will push him into the top 32.   Once there (or even close), he’ll be seeded at the French Open.  I wonder how many times it has happened that a player has to qualify for one grand slam and then is seeded at the next?

Miami creates another unique situation for the Canadian.  Because the cut is determined so early, Raonic is not yet in the main draw of Key Biscayne.  Anyone ranked higher than 78th got into the main draw.  As is, Milos will be the top seed in qualifying (ranked in the 30s!), unless he gets a wild card, or enough players withdraw to move him into the main draw the old-fashioned way.

A little more from the desert: Yesterday was the first day of qualifying, and frankly, it wasn’t very interesting.  But one result stuck out: Rohan Bopanna took down Peter Polansky, 7-6(6) 3-6 7-5.  Bopanna has never had much success as a singles player, but his five-set effort against Viktor Troicki has got to have given him some confidence.

Today, Bopanna will face top seed Daniel Brands for a spot in the main draw.

Little brother: A single note from Futures this morning:  One of the qualifiers at Ukraine F2 is 17-year-old Leonard Stakhovsky.  Yep, he’s Sergiy’s brother.  He currently has a lone ranking point to his name, but he’ll get at least one more this week.  After winning three matches to get into the tournament, he beat Grzegorz Panfil, a Pole ranked in the top 500, to reach the second round.

Sergiy withdrew from Indian Wells, so this may be the first week that Leonard has the best result of the family.

See you tomorrow!

Tuesday Topspin: Back in the USSR

This is what we in the tennis blogging world call a “slow news day.” Davis Cup is over, and the Indian Wells main draw hasn’t been released. Oh well, we’ll make do.

Star maps: Indian Wells has done a great job ensuring that the game’s young stars are in the main draw, granting wild cards to Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Ryan Harrison, and Richard Berankis.  Any tournament that gives more than half of its wild cards to foreign players gets a thumbs up from me.

Missing from the draw, however, is Grigor Dimitrov.  The Bulgarian followed the European challenger circuit to Sarajevo, where he will again be the top seed.  Also following the circuit is Nicholas Mahut, Dimitrov’s opponent in last week’s final.  The more interesting potential opponent for the Bulgarian, though, is in his half of the draw: fourth-seeded Russian Dmitri Tursunov.

Others to watch: Like I said, slow news day, so let’s glance through the futures draws.  Bizarrely, Marc Gicquel is playing France F4 in Lille.  His stock has fallen in the last couple of years, but one would hope that (a) he’s getting a nice appearance fee, and (b) he wins easily.

In McAllen, Texas, at USA F7, here’s an unlikely pair of wild cards: 16-year-old Thai-Son Kwiatkowski and drug cheat Wayne Odesnik.  Odesnik has been on entry lists the last couple of weeks but hasn’t played; I wonder if he decided he wouldn’t play qualifying and has waited for his next wild card.  It’s an interesting draw beyond those two, as well.  Joining the Texas futures swing are two American 19-year-olds, Jordan Cox and Andrea Collarini.

That Russian Davis Cup team: Without Nikolay Davydenko and Mikhail Youhzny, Russia’s Davis Cup team last weekend was the weakest it has put forth in a long time.  While Russia lost to Sweden, Kazakhstan triumphed over the Czechs and moved into the quarterfinals.

Of course, Kazahstan (among many other countries in Europe and Asia) used to be part of the USSR.  The Soviets were generally not much of a factor, spending only five years in the World Group.  But my oh my, what a team they would have right now.

Of course, the Russian contingent isn’t that bad.  You have the Kazakhs.  There are two Ukrainians in the top 40.  Belarus sports one of the best doubles players in the world in Max Mirnyi.  Even Latvia and Lithuania each have a player in the top 100.

Which got me wondering: What would Russian tennis look like if it still spanned the entire USSR?  Here are the singles rankings:

13   Mikhail Youzhny         RUS  
23   Alexander Dolgopolov    UKR  
34   Ernests Gulbis          LAT  
38   Sergey Stakhovsky       UKR  
39   Andrei Goloubev         KAZ  
42   Nikolay Davydenko       RUS  
55   Denis Istomin           UZB  
62   Mikhail Kukushkin       KAZ  
74   Richard Berankis        LTU  
77   Teimuraz Gabashvili     RUS  
96   Igor Andreev            RUS  
99   Ilia Marchenko          UKR  
103  Igor Kunitsyn           RUS  
104  Dmitry Tursunov         RUS  
125  Yuri Schukin            KAZ  
144  Alexandre Koudriavtsev  RUS  
153  Konstantin Kravchuk     RUS  
197  Jurgen Zopp             EST  
200  Vladimir Ignatik        BLR

Pretty impressive, huh?  With a potential doubles team of Mirnyi/Stakhovsky, you could come with a Davis Cup team on par with anyone except for a healthy Spain or France.

Alas, the Russians will have to settle for watching their former compatriots.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Topspin: Kazakhstan is not weak

(Yes, I know the Seinfeld reference is about the Ukraine.  It seemed appropriate nonetheless.)

Sure, Radek Stepanek didn’t play, and Tomas Berdych may not have been 100 percent.  But really, did anybody see Kazakhstan advancing to the World Group quarterfinals?  Wow.

The hero for the Kazakhs was Andrey Golubev who, astonishingly, defeated Berdych in yesterday’s fourth rubber to even the tie.  That set the stage for the underrated Mikhail Kukushkin to clinch the victory by winning his match against Jan Hajek, exhausted from his five-set effort on Friday.  Next, the Kazakhs will play in Argentina, which may just be winnable for them, depending on who is healthy enough to represent the Argentine side.

The other drama-filled tie yesterday was in Zagreb, between Croatia and Germany.  After Marin Cilic handily won the fourth rubber, both captains went with substitutes, so the tie was decided by Ivo Karlovic and Philipp Petzschner.  It’s too bad Ivan Dodig was too worn out to play again; I’m liking this guy more every week, and I suspect he could’ve beaten either Petzchner or Florian Mayer.  As it was, Karlovic wasn’t strong enough, and the Germans advance to a tough quarterfinal matchup with France.

Elsewhere: In Cherbourg, Grigor Dimitrov took the final in straight sets against Nicholas Mahut.  It must have felt good: In Dimitrov’s last final, he played Mahut and lost in three.  In Dallas, Alex Bogomolov Jr. beat Ranier Schuettler for his second challenger-level championship since November.

Rankings update: Since it was a Davis Cup weekend, there’s very little movement at the top of the rankings.  Juan Monaco, Golubev, Jeremy Chardy, and Somdev Devvarman all gained a few spots thanks to their wins in live rubbers, while Joachim Johansson lept more than 200 places to 537th.

With his victory in Cherbourg, Dimitrov ascends to 71st, a new career high for the Bulgarian.  Bogomolov gains 24 spots to #128, and Andres Molteni, champion in Salinas, breaks into the top 200 for the first time, landing at #185.

Indian Wells: Another day, another withdrawal: It seems like I just mentioned Tommy Haas‘s comeback, to find out that he isn’t playing this week after all.

Looking at the entry lists, what’s fun about the upcoming tournament is that nearly everyone is playing doubles.  In addition to the usual pairs, Rafael Nadal is teaming with Marc Lopez, Novak Djokovic with Viktor Troicki, Robin Soderling with Jarkko Nieminen, Andy Murray with brother Jamie, and Tomas Berdych with Janko Tipsarevic.  I’m sure we’ll see a few of these teams withdraw, but for now, all that’s missing is Federer/Wawrinka.

Check back later today–I’ve got an interesting new feature I’ll be adding to the site.

Sunday Topspin: Day o’ Doubles

Davis Cup Saturday: The only time the world ever watches doubles.

There was plenty of good tennis to be seen yesterday, as a handful of World Group ties depended heavily on the outcome of the doubles rubber.  Nowhere was that more the case than in Serbia, where Ilija Bozoljac and Nenad Zimonjic overcame Somdev Devvarman and Rohan Bopanna in a gripping fourth-set tiebreak.  It’s too bad that neither Leander Paes nor Mahesh Bhupathi could play; a team of either one and Bopanna could have won the match and put India in position for a major upset.

The upset of the day has to go to Jurgen Melzer and Oliver Marach, who saved the day for Austria by defeating Julien Benneteau and Michael Llodra.  The French team was heavily favored, and Melzer was able to make up for his loss on Friday.  The other result that surprised me was the easy defeat of Romania by Argentina.  Sure, it was on clay and the Argentines were at home, but Victor Hanescu and Horia Tecau are almost surely the better doubles team.

So, a quick recap: Sweden, Argentina, and Spain have clinched their quarterfinal berths.  Serbia needs to win just one of two lopsided singles matches.  The U.S. needs only Andy Roddick to come through with another win.  The Czechs are in a similar position with Tomas Berdych.  The French should rest easy knowing that the final rubber (if necessary) will pit Jeremy Chardy against Stefan Koubek.

That leaves Croatia and Germany.  As I write this, Marin Cilic has just sealed a straight-set victory to lock up the tie at 2, meaning that it all comes down to Florian Mayer and Ivan Dodig.  Originally I predicted a German win; at this point, I might give the edge to Dodig and the Croatians.

First-time winners: A couple of players have made names for themselves outside of Davis Cup this week.  Andres Molteni of Argentina was contesting his first challenger-level final in Salinas yesterday, against 100th-ranked Horacio Zeballos.  Molteni won several futures events last year but hasn’t gained much traction at the next level.  In fact, the final was only Molteni’s third time facing a top-100 opponent.

Molteni came through, victorious in two tight sets.  The Argentine is currently #236 in the world; the tournament win should rocket him up about 50 spots, ensuring he can play all the clay court challengers he wants for several months.

Also in the winner’s circle is young Australian Benjamin Mitchell, recording his first title.  His came at Australia F2 over countryman Michael Look.  The win will get him inside the top 500 for the first time, an impressive feat for an 18-year-old.

Indian Wells: After we’ve put Davis Cup behind us, it’ll be all Indian Wells all the time for a couple of weeks.  For now, all we can do is talk about who will be playing there.  David Nalbandian is not–despite notching the win, he struggled through his Davis Cup match in pain, and will be skipping both Indian Wells and Miami.  Tommy Haas, however, will be playing, his first professional appearance in more than a year.

See you tomorrow!

Saturday Topspin: Pim Pim and Somdev

It wouldn’t be Davis Cup without the unexpected.  We got plenty of that yesterday:

  • Starting with the biggest shock: India is level with Serbia.  Somdev Devvarman took out Janko Tipsarevic in straight sets.  What might be an even bigger surprise, Rohan Bopanna took Viktor Troicki to five sets.  With Bopanna, you have to favor India in the doubles, and if Devvarman and Bopanna are playing this well, they’ve got a chance to grab a point in the reverse singles, as well.  Wow.
  • I predicted a Sweden win regardless, but a straight set win for Joachim Johansson over Teymuraz Gabashvili?  I don’t think anyone outside of Sweden saw that coming.  A 2-0 lead basically locks up the win for the Swedes.
  • As I suggested the other day, Jurgen Melzer isn’t exactly unassailable right now, and Jeremy Chardy proved it yesterday with a victory over the Austrian in straights.  The depth of French tennis is simply amazing–Chardy is the nation’s #6 player.

For all of that, the best tennis on Friday may have taken place in Croatia.  Both singles matches went five sets, with Marin Cilic edging Florian Mayer, and Phillip Kohlschreiber squeaking past Ivan Dodig.  Today’s doubles rubber may well end up deciding the tie.

A rung down the ladder, Canada is facing Mexico.  Even without Daniel Nestor, Canada is heavily favored.  I was very curious to see how Milos Raonic would handle the clay.  His opponent is outside the top 500, so maybe the result doesn’t mean much, but Raonic came through with ease, dropping only five games.

The most intriguing matchup in Group 1 is Netherlands vs. Ukraine.  Neither squad would be out of place in the World Group; arguably, either one is better than Belgium and Chile, and perhaps even Russia.  The tie is even at one apiece, after Sergiy Stakhovsky defeated Robin Haase in five sets and Thiemo de Bakker beat Ilya Marchenko in straights.

Back to Dallas: The American challenger is a lot less exciting now; in the first two matches yesterday, Jack Sock and Ryan Harrison exited the tournament.  Sock was impressive for much of the first set, but Matthew Ebden‘s speed and consistency was too much.  Still, it’s an exciting week for the youngster, and the quarterfinal showing should boost him more than 200 places in the rankings, up to the top 600.

More results: Benjamin Mitchell advanced to the final in Australia F2, taking out top seed Vishnu Vardhan.  It’s the second final of his career, and he’ll be gunning for his first tournament win when he faces countryman Michael Look.  The two have faced each other before: in November, Mitchell won in three sets.

HT.com favorites Grigor Dimitrov and Horacio Zeballos keep winning: Dimitrov is in the semis in Cherbourg, and Zeballos has reached the final in Salinas.

Here’s one more name to keep an eye on: Takanyi Garanganga of Zimbabwe.  A former African junior champ, he’s 20 years old, and he’s in the semifinals of USA F6.  He’s reached the later rounds of a handful of futures tournaments, but this is his best result in the U.S.  He had to qualify, so he has strung together five wins this week.  Today, he’ll face his toughest opponent of the week in top-seeded Brit Daniel Cox, ranked 320th in the world

I think it’s time to watch some doubles!

Friday Topspin: Davis Cup Starts Now

As I write, the first rubbers of the weekend are getting underway.  That means I had better get right to the remaining pair of previews:

Argentina vs. Romania: This is the one tie in which home-court–and by extension, surface–may be a deciding factor.  The Romanian team’s hopes rest on Victor Hanescu and the doubles pairing of Hanescu and Horia Tecau.  But against Argentines David Nalbandian, Juan Monaco, or even Juan Ignacio Chela, it’s hard to imagine Hanescu triumphing in singles on the clay.

With Nalbandian, health is always the issue, and he’s not at 100% right now.  If he feels well enough to play, that’s probably sufficient for his country to win this round.  My prediction is that Romania will win the doubles, and Hanescu will manage to win one of his singles matches, still giving the victory to Argentina, 3-2.

USA vs. Chile: The surface is important here as well, but switching to clay isn’t enough to give Chile the edge over the strong American team.  The Bryan Brothers are as close to an automatic point as they come, and Andy Roddick isn’t helpless on clay, and John Isner reached the third round of the French Open last year.

If Fernando Gonzalez (who is planning a return to the tour soon) were available, it would be a different story–one top-ranked player comfortable on clay could reverse the outcome of this tie.  But as is, I have to give the nod to USA, 4-1.

Kudla out: I watched most of Denis Kudla‘s match yesterday with Australian Greg Jones.  Kudla lost in three, as his focus wavered and his game deserted him midway through the second set.  He owns huge groundstrokes, flat and deep shots you don’t expect to come off the racquet of someone shorter than six feet.  Those types of strokes also give him less margin for error, which was evident in the third set.

In the first and second sets, though, Kudla would string together one sensational groundstroke after another.  Even the sound off the racquet was different–it sounded like he was hitting with a giant ping-pong paddle.  Jones would think a rallying shot would come back, and then Kudla would launch a down-the-line backhand fully out of reach.  Impressive.

While Jones won yesterday, it’s clear which player has more potential.  The Australian, with his big but inconsistent serve, is a one-dimensional player who will have a hard time ever sticking in the top 100.  Kudla needs to get more experience under his belt, but if he can improve his serve (especially his second), he’s a player to watch.

Also in Dallas: Ryan Harrison won handily over Lester Cook to reach the quarterfinals.  He’ll play the second match today, against Alex Kuznetsov, while Jack Sock vs. Matthew Ebden is the first match.

Other results: Through to quarterfinals in challengers are Nicholas Mahut, Grigor Dimitrov and Horacio Zeballos.  Mega-underdog Stefan Seifert faltered, though, losing in straight sets to Stephane Robert.

Also, Benjamin Mitchell, the young Australian I mentioned yesterday, is into the semifinals at Australia F2, where he’ll next face top-seed Vishnu Vardhan, a 23-year-old from India currently ranked 363rd in the world.

Enjoy Davis Cup today!