Category: Challengers

Sunday Topspin: Wins for Djokovic, Ferrer, and Donskoy

Novak Triumphant: It’s tough to imagine Roger Federer looking much worse than he did yesterday in losing to Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-3.  If anything, it wasn’t even as close as the score indicates.  Federer barely won half of his own service points.

The statistical profile of the match is very similar to that of Federer’s loss to Andy Murray in Shanghai last year.  That day, he lost 6-3 6-2 in 85 minutes, winning only 52% of service points.  It’s amazing that someone who can play so flawlessly against a lesser opponent can miss so many relatively easy balls on a bad day against Djokovic or Murray.

For Djokovic, the story is all positive.  Despite some lapses in earlier matches against Florent Serra and Tomas Berdych, he executed perfectly in the final, and is making a case that he is the best player in the world on hard court.  He has now won half of his last six encounters with Roger, including the last two in a row.

Streak over: Finally, someone managed to beat Nicholas Almagro on clay.  In contrast to the final in Dubai, the match in Acupulco took three sets, two tiebreaks, and a grinding two hours and forty minutes.  In the end, David Ferrer cruised through the final set 6-2.

I will be interested to see whether Almagro can keep his momentum going through the hard-court circuit coming up; his game does not seem as clay-specific as Ferrer’s, but he has never had the same success on hard courts.  If he does, he’ll have to serve better than he did yesterday: He made only half of his first serves, and a mere 45% in the final set.

JMDP cruising: Mardy Fish didn’t prove much of a challenge yesterday for Juan Martin Del Potro.  Fish failed to win even half of his service points, as the Argentine was in control of the match from the beginning.  In the other semifinal, Janko Tipsarevic made a date with Del Potro by beating Kei Nishikori, 6-4 6-4.

I don’t want to underestimate Tipsarevic, but it’s hard to see him giving Del Potro much of a challenge.  Janko has had a very easy draw–he won’t play a seeded opponent all week–and he just doesn’t have the game to match up with the Argentine’s.  Del Potro is gunning for his first title since the 2009 US Open.

One more final: Yesterday I introduced you to Evgeny Donskoy, a promising young Russian who reached the final after qualifying in Casablanca.  In three sets, he beat Alessio Di Mauro to win his first challenger-level title.  In fact, it was his first final on the challenger tour, and only the third final of his pro career; his biggest triumph to date was winning a 2008 Futures tournament in the Ukraine.

If my arithmetic is correct, his ranking will land somewhere between #200 and #205.

See you tomorrow!

Saturday Topspin: Roger, Novak, and Evgeny

The rematch: Once again, it’s Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in a big match.  Last time they played, of course, was in Melbourne, when Djokovic scored a big win in straight sets.  The previous three matches, however, went Federer’s way.

I’ve watched pieces of all of Roger’s matches this week, and it’s amazing how much he pushes opponents around the court.  The commentators talked continuously about how far back Richard Gasquet was playing.  Djokovic (along with Juan Martin Del Potro) is one of the few guys with the guts and the skill to hold his ground near the baseline.

Neither player has had a particularly challenging road to the final.  Federer hasn’t played a seeded opponent, and the second set against Gasquet yesterday was the first time this week he was pushed to 5-5.  (In fact, Gasquet served for the second set at 5-4.)  Djokovic faced tough matches against Feliciano Lopez and Tomas Berdych, but the latter match was ultimately decided by injury.

Today, I’m betting on Federer.

Czech out: Another day, another Davis Cup withdrawal.  The Czech team is in trouble, as Radek Stepanek is out with the flu.  Berdych’s status must be in doubt, as well, after retiring from yesterday’s match in Dubai.

The 3rd-ranked nation suddenly looks very weak; if Berdych can’t play, their top singles player is 102nd-ranked Jan Hajek.

More young Russians: Yesterday I mentioned the strong future of Russian men’s tennis, with two players under 21 inside the top 250.  Just missing that cut was another up-and-comer, Evgeny Donskoy.  Currently ranked #259, he won’t turn 21 until May.

And he’s about to get a boost in the rankings.  He had to play qualifying at the Casablanca challenger, and has now won seven matches there.  He’s set to face Alessio Di Mauro in the final.  If he loses, he’ll be up around #225; if he wins, he’ll just miss the top 200.

Oddly enough, while Donskoy was one of the youngest players in the Casablanca draw, Di Mauro was the oldest, at age 33.

Di Mauro is also a clay specialist; he only played 1 of his 46 matches last year on a hard court.  Donskoy had more success on clay last year, as well.  I’m working on surface-specific rankings, and for 2010, I have Di Mauro as #133 on clay and Donskoy as #139.

Acupulco: Can David Ferrer stop Nicholas Almagro?  Ferrer dropped the first set to Alexander Dolgopolov last night, but came charging back, ultimately winning 5-7 6-1 6-1.  Almagro played a tight contest with Thomaz Bellucci, triumphing in straight sets for his 13th straight victory.  He’ll try to make it three straight titles tonight.

Delray Beach: For all of the withdrawals and upsets in Florida this week, everything went according to plan in yesterday’s quarterfinals.  Today, Kei Nishikori will face Janko Tipsarevic, while Mardy Fish will play Del Potro.  The latter match should another interesting test for the Argentine, as Fish plays a style of game that he hasn’t seen for a while.

Giant-killers: The doubles team of Feliciano Lopez and Jeremy Chardy beat yet another top seed yesterday, eking by Michael Llodra and Nenad Zemonjic 10-8 in a super-tiebreak.  To get to the finals, they had to win three matches, two against the 2nd and 3rd seeds, the third against Bopanna/Qureshi.

They’ve just taken the first set from the similarly-unheralded team of Mikhail Youhzny and Sergiy Stakhovsky.

See you tomorrow!

Thursday Topspin: Challenges and 21-year-olds

Unusual challenge: In his match yesterday against Marcel Granollers, Roger Federer used a challenge on his own first serve–nothing unusual there.  But in this case, the original call had been “in!”  Fed thought it was out and stopped playing the point accordingly.

He challenged, and he was right.  On his second delivery, he ended up losing the point anyway.

More Americans out: I mentioned yesterday that the way things have turned out, it hasn’t been a promoter’s dream in Delray Beach.  Andy Roddick withdrew, John Isner lost in the first round, and yesterday, both Sam Querrey and James Blake were defeated.  Blake, at least, fell to the popular Kei Nishikori, arguably the best young player not named Milos.

In fact, I was playing with rankings last night, and came up with something interesting.  Of players who have not yet reached their 22nd birthday, this is the top 10 in the world:

37   Milos Raonic        CAN  12/27/90  
66   Kei Nishikori       JPN  12/29/89  
74   Richard Berankis    LTU   6/21/90  
81   Grigor Dimitrov     BUL   5/16/91  
120  Benoit Paire        FRA    5/8/89  
138  Donald Young        USA   7/23/89  
143  Federico del Bonis  ARG   10/5/90  
148  Jerzy Janowicz      POL  11/13/90  
150  Ryan Harrison       USA    5/7/92  
160  Thomas Schoorel     NED    4/8/89

That’s pretty much a “who’s who” of up-and-coming young stars.  What it highlights for me is just how young some of these guys still are.  Sure, we all know that Raonic and Dimitrov are the wave of the future, but we’ve been following Nishikori for years.  He’s still this young, and if he can stay injury-free, he has a lot of time to climb to the top.

It’s even more surprising to see Donald Young here.  He’s been around forever, but he doesn’t turn 22 until July.  Put that in perspective: Had he gone to college and stayed for four years, he’d be in his junior or senior year right now, probably leading Georgia to the national title.

Seedless: The top-ranked players are having a tough time in Wolfsburg this week.  In the first round alone, the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd seeds feel.  5th-seeded Steve Darcis lost in the second round, leaving HT.com favorite Jesse Huta Galung as the presumptive favorite.

Yesterday: The biggest upset of the day was Ryan Sweeting‘s victory over Querrey.  In a minor coup, Sergey Stakhovsky defeated Ernests Gulbis in Dubai; for his efforts, he gets to face Federer in a few hours.  In Acupulco, Stanislas Wawrinka had to work hard, but he eventually got past Fabio Fognini 7-5 in the third.

Today: We’re mostly in quarterfinals now, so things are starting to get interesting.  After the Fed-Stakhovsky match, Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon duke it out for a spot in the semis.  I’ll be watching.

In Mexico, Wawrinka next has to face Alexander Dolgopolov, the most compelling matchup of the day in that tournament.  And in Delray, they are finishing up the second round.  Mardy Fish has what should be an easy match against Ricardo Mello, while Juan Martin Del Potro will be challenged by Teymuraz Gabashvili.

See you tomorrow!