jsackmann – Page 128 – Heavy Topspin

Wednesday Topspin: Young Americans

Before we continue with our Davis Cup preview, let’s start with the young Americans in Dallas.

Harrison and Kudla: Nothing came easy, but it has been a good tournament so far for the local teens. Yesterday afternoon, Denis Kudla beat Izak van der Merwe, looking strong as he served out the third set. That’s a big result for someone outside the top 400. In fact, it’s Kudla first match win at the challenger level.

After one set, it didn’t look nearly as rosy for Ryan Harrison. Robert Kendrick was serving well, crushing forehands all over the court. Ultimately, Ryan wore him down, serving a little better and playing more consistently while Kendrick did the opposite. Harrison took the match in a lopsided (7-1) third-set tiebreak.

Kendrick is always frustrating to watch–such big shots, so little to show for it. He can play a string of points that makes you wonder why he never cracked the top 20, and then, as we saw last night, he starts playing (and acting) like a frustrated rookie. With a bit of recent success and a strong history in Dallas, I thought he would overcome Harrison.

American tennis: What follows is all speculation. I’d love to be able to prove it, but I’m not sure how.

There’s been a lot of hand-wringing of late about the dearth of strong young American tennis players–with the exception of Harrison, of course. John Isner and Sam Querrey are solid, but it’s tough to see them making it much further than they have already. Yet, there always seem to be young Americans have some success; we just haven’t seen anyone take it to the top 10 since Andy Roddick and James Blake.

Here’s my theory. The rigid structure of youth tennis in the U.S. allows fast-developing (often tall, big-serving) players to win early, which in turn encourages them to keep playing, and attracts the attention of coaches. That’s how you have Querrey. That’s how Isner got good in a relatively short period of time. You see the same thing in Australia, I think, with the likes of Carsten Ball, Chris Guccione, and Greg Jones.

The problem isn’t attracting kids to tennis–it’s keeping them. As a 13-year-old, I lost my share of matches to guys who were way bigger than I was, and would win service games at love while I waved hopelessly at their serves. The big guys have skills that will lead to success in juniors, in college, and for some, a degree of success in the pros, but will only take them so far.

What I will figure out a way to study is this: What are the career patterns of very tall (and/or big-serving) players? It seems that they rise fast, stagnate, and retire young. A generation ago, someone like Mark Philippoussis could live on only a serve; now, the return game has been forced to improve, meaning that the big servers themselves have to improve the rest of their game. If my theory about the career patterns of this sort of player is true, American tennis is a breeding ground for kids who will be impressive 21-year-olds and fizzle early.

That’s what’s gratifying about watching the 6’0″ Harrison and the 5’11” Kudla win matches–they don’t fit that mold.

Back to Davis Cup!

Davis Cup: Czech Republic vs. Kazakhstan: When Kazakhstan is in the world group, you know things have changed. They dominated a Federer-less Swiss team last fall, and they might get lucky again this weekend.

The Czech team is already without Radek Stepanek, and you have to wonder about the availability of Tomas Berdych, who was forced to retire in the semifinals of Dubai. Without Stepanek, it’s possible Kazakhstan could beat a Czech team with Berdych.

The Kazakhs feature Andrey Goloubev and Mikhail Kukushkin, both 21-year-olds on the way up. Both have proven they will show up in Davis Cup play, having defeated Stanislas Wawrinka in their last tie. There’s no obvious doubles team, but neither does the Czech team have one.

Perhaps more than any other tie this weekend, this contest rests in the hands of one player: Berdych. If he’s healthy, he will probably be asked to play two singles matches and a doubles match. If he does, the Czechs will probably win. If he only plays his two singles matches, that leaves the door open for Kazakhstan; if he can’t play two singles matches, then we can look forward to the unlikely event of Kazakhstan in the world group quarterfinals.

My prediction: Czech Republic, 3-2.

Belgium vs. Spain: This reminds me of those matches I mentioned earlier, when I was 13, losing comprehensively to kids who were six inches taller than I was. I can identify with the Belgians.

Rafael Nadal playing Davis Cup is good for Spain and good for the sport. But this week, it’s just rubbing salt in the wound. Spain boasts three players in the top 10, plus a very good singles and doubles player in Feliciano Lopez. Belgium has a 30-year-old Xavier Malisse.

You’ll be shocked to find that I predict: Spain, 5-0.

Serbia update: Apparently, Novak Djokovic may not play this weekend. That has to give India a bit of hope, but Serbia’s other singles players will still prove too strong.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at the remaining European ties and keep tabs on the challenger action. See you then!

Tuesday Topspin: Davis Cup and Dallas

The first round of the 2011 Davis Cup begins Friday. This week, I’ll be previewing the eight Davis Cup World Group ties. Let’s start at the top of the draw:

Serbia vs. India: If it were the Davis Cup of doubles, India would be in good shape. As it is, the defending champions from Serbia are good enough to beat anybody, let alone a side with only one singles player in the top 500.

India does boast one of the best doubles teams in Davis Cup play, with Leander Paes and Mahesh Bhupathi. That’s one rubber. If Somdev Devvarman has a great day, he might be able to beat Janko Tipsarevic or Viktor Troicki. That’s two rubbers–maybe. No matter how you slice it, you’re not going to come up with any more.

Novak Djokovic, fresh off another victory in Dubai, is just about unbeatable on hard courts, and no one’s going to challenge that this weekend. My not-very bold prediction: Serbia wins, 4-1.

Russia vs. Sweden: This one is a little more interesting. I wrote last week about Russia’s solid Davis Cup team a few years down the road, but this year things don’t look so rosy. The Russian side is relatively deep, but with Nikolay Davydenko and Mikhail Youhzny sitting it out, they don’t have a singles player currently inside the top 75. Igor Andreev has had some doubles success, but the Russians are lacking in doubles expertise, as well.

Sweden is the exact opposite. The presence of Robin Soderling would make any squad a fearsome one, but beyond that, you get the impression that they didn’t quite know how to find three more players. Among those three are two doubles specialists, Simon Aspelin and Robert Lindstedt.

It all pivots on the doubles match. Soderling gives the Swedes two easy victories. Joachim Johansson, at this point in his career, will probably not beat any of the Russians in a singles match. That leaves Aspelin/Lindstedt against Andreev and maybe Igor Kunitsyn. It could go either way, but I’ll pick Sweden, 3-2.

Challengers: There’s a free live stream for the Dallas challenger this week, which gave me the opportunity to watch some truly mediocre tennis yesterday. I missed the one notable result from yesterday’s action, in which American 18-year-old Jack Sock took down Rik De Voest, a veteran South African currently ranked 160th. Straight sets, no less.

If you’re a fan of American tennis, today’s card is for you. Five of the seven singles matches scheduled are between two U.S. players, including the main event: #1 seed Robert Kendrick against super-teenager Ryan Harrison. Also of interest is the second match, pitting South African Izak van der Merwe against another American teen, Denis Kudla.

Only two other challenger results worth mentioning. Grigor Dimitrov had an easy time advancing over David Guez to the second round in Cherbourg, while in Salinas, Horacio Zeballos needed a third-set tiebreak to overcome American wildcard Eric Nunez.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Topspin: A Title for Del Potro

Long-awaited return: Juan Martin Del Potro won his first title since the 2009 U.S. Open, defeating Janko Tipsarevic in straight sets in the final at Delray Beach. The 6-4 6-4 result isn’t surprising, but it is gratifying to see Del Potro continue his ascent back to the top level of the game.

It was a tighter match than I expected. Tipsarevic rushed out to a 4-1 lead, but Del Potro reeled off the next five games to win the set. The Serbian had more success with his first serve, while Delpo won an impressive 63% of his second serve points. The Argentine also fought off 10 of 11 break points–impressive enough, but if Tipsarevic hadn’t been playing well, he wouldn’t have had to work so hard.

The tournament win rockets Del Potro up the rankings–he now sits at 89th, 77 spots up from last week. Of course, few rankings are less meaningful at this point than his. He’ll get a wild card into any tournament he wants, at least for the next few months, and it’s just a matter of time before he works himself back into the top 20. If not higher.

Other rankings movement: Other big movers this Monday are Richard Gasquet and Thomaz Bellucci, both of whom lost in semifinals last week. They each gain 7 spots: Gasquet to 21, Bellucci to 29.

Evgeny Donskoy, who I’ve been writing about for the last few days, jumped to 200th in the world with his win in Casablance. Belgian Ruben Bemelmans, who won in Wolfsburg, gains 36 spots to #144.

From the challengers, the biggest gainer is someone who didn’t make a final. That’s Stefan Seifert, a 25-year-old German who came into the tournament ranked outside of the top 1,000. He was wild-carded into qualifying and ultimately lost a three-setter to Bemelmans in the semis of the main draw. He ascends to #591. Best of all, his semifinal performance earned his entry to the main draw in Cherbourg, where he’ll face Arnaud Clement in the first round.

Davis Cup this week: Some first-round matches in the World Group are shaping up to be more unpredictable than usual. The Russians and Czechs are limited by injuries, while the U.S. must compete on clay, without last year’s hero Mardy Fish. Except for India-Serbia and Belgium-Spain, every tie is within reach of both countries.

I’ll preview some of the matchups in more detail starting tomorrow.

At the Challengers: With no ATP events this week, we have to look to the minor leagues for tournament action. Fortunately, there are three such tourneys starting today.

Of the three, Dallas probably has the strongest field. Among the seeds is the usual mix of veteran Americans, such as Robert Kendrick and Michael Russell. What makes the event interesting is the smattering of young players. Ryan Harrison is in the mix, and wild cards were awarded to Denis Kudla, Jack Sock, and Bernard Tomic.

Most of the Europeans, including a vast array of Frenchmen, are playing in Cherbourg. Headlined by Grigor Dimitrov, the seeds include Nicolas Mahut, Clement, and Benoit Paire.

Finally, there’s clay court action in Salinas, with a draw including two of my favorites, Horacio Zeballos and Federico Del Bonis. Plenty of tennis to follow between now and the weekend Davis Cup action.

See you tomorrow!

Sunday Topspin: Wins for Djokovic, Ferrer, and Donskoy

Novak Triumphant: It’s tough to imagine Roger Federer looking much worse than he did yesterday in losing to Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-3. If anything, it wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. Federer barely won half of his own service points.

The statistical profile of the match is very similar to that of Federer’s loss to Andy Murray in Shanghai last year. That day, he lost 6-3 6-2 in 85 minutes, winning only 52% of service points. It’s amazing that someone who can play so flawlessly against a lesser opponent can miss so many relatively easy balls on a bad day against Djokovic or Murray.

For Djokovic, the story is all positive. Despite some lapses in earlier matches against Florent Serra and Tomas Berdych, he executed perfectly in the final, and is making a case that he is the best player in the world on hard court. He has now won half of his last six encounters with Roger, including the last two in a row.

Streak over: Finally, someone managed to beat Nicholas Almagro on clay. In contrast to the final in Dubai, the match in Acupulco took three sets, two tiebreaks, and a grinding two hours and forty minutes. In the end, David Ferrer cruised through the final set 6-2.

I will be interested to see whether Almagro can keep his momentum going through the hard-court circuit coming up; his game does not seem as clay-specific as Ferrer’s, but he has never had the same success on hard courts. If he does, he’ll have to serve better than he did yesterday: He made only half of his first serves, and a mere 45% in the final set.

JMDP cruising: Mardy Fish didn’t prove much of a challenge yesterday for Juan Martin Del Potro. Fish failed to win even half of his service points, as the Argentine was in control of the match from the beginning. In the other semifinal, Janko Tipsarevic made a date with Del Potro by beating Kei Nishikori, 6-4 6-4.

I don’t want to underestimate Tipsarevic, but it’s hard to see him giving Del Potro much of a challenge. Janko has had a very easy draw–he won’t play a seeded opponent all week–and he just doesn’t have the game to match up with the Argentine’s. Del Potro is gunning for his first title since the 2009 US Open.

One more final: Yesterday I introduced you to Evgeny Donskoy, a promising young Russian who reached the final after qualifying in Casablanca. In three sets, he beat Alessio Di Mauro to win his first challenger-level title. In fact, it was his first final on the challenger tour, and only the third final of his pro career; his biggest triumph to date was winning a 2008 Futures tournament in the Ukraine.

If my arithmetic is correct, his ranking will land somewhere between #200 and #205.

See you tomorrow!

Saturday Topspin: Roger, Novak, and Evgeny

The rematch: Once again, it’s Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in a big match. Last time they played, of course, was in Melbourne, when Djokovic scored a big win in straight sets. The previous three matches, however, went Federer’s way.

I’ve watched pieces of all of Roger’s matches this week, and it’s amazing how much he pushes opponents around the court. The commentators talked continuously about how far back Richard Gasquet was playing. Djokovic (along with Juan Martin Del Potro) is one of the few guys with the guts and the skill to hold his ground near the baseline.

Neither player has had a particularly challenging road to the final. Federer hasn’t played a seeded opponent, and the second set against Gasquet yesterday was the first time this week he was pushed to 5-5. (In fact, Gasquet served for the second set at 5-4.) Djokovic faced tough matches against Feliciano Lopez and Tomas Berdych, but the latter match was ultimately decided by injury.

Today, I’m betting on Federer.

Czech out: Another day, another Davis Cup withdrawal. The Czech team is in trouble, as Radek Stepanek is out with the flu. Berdych’s status must be in doubt, as well, after retiring from yesterday’s match in Dubai.

The 3rd-ranked nation suddenly looks very weak; if Berdych can’t play, their top singles player is 102nd-ranked Jan Hajek.

More young Russians: Yesterday I mentioned the strong future of Russian men’s tennis, with two players under 21 inside the top 250. Just missing that cut was another up-and-comer, Evgeny Donskoy. Currently ranked #259, he won’t turn 21 until May.

And he’s about to get a boost in the rankings. He had to play qualifying at the Casablanca challenger, and has now won seven matches there. He’s set to face Alessio Di Mauro in the final. If he loses, he’ll be up around #225; if he wins, he’ll just miss the top 200.

Oddly enough, while Donskoy was one of the youngest players in the Casablanca draw, Di Mauro was the oldest, at age 33.

Di Mauro is also a clay specialist; he only played 1 of his 46 matches last year on a hard court. Donskoy had more success on clay last year, as well. I’m working on surface-specific rankings, and for 2010, I have Di Mauro as #133 on clay and Donskoy as #139.

Acupulco: Can David Ferrer stop Nicholas Almagro? Ferrer dropped the first set to Alexander Dolgopolov last night, but came charging back, ultimately winning 5-7 6-1 6-1. Almagro played a tight contest with Thomaz Bellucci, triumphing in straight sets for his 13th straight victory. He’ll try to make it three straight titles tonight.

Delray Beach: For all of the withdrawals and upsets in Florida this week, everything went according to plan in yesterday’s quarterfinals. Today, Kei Nishikori will face Janko Tipsarevic, while Mardy Fish will play Del Potro. The latter match should another interesting test for the Argentine, as Fish plays a style of game that he hasn’t seen for a while.

Giant-killers: The doubles team of Feliciano Lopez and Jeremy Chardy beat yet another top seed yesterday, eking by Michael Llodra and Nenad Zemonjic 10-8 in a super-tiebreak. To get to the finals, they had to win three matches, two against the 2nd and 3rd seeds, the third against Bopanna/Qureshi.

They’ve just taken the first set from the similarly-unheralded team of Mikhail Youhzny and Sergiy Stakhovsky.

See you tomorrow!

Friday Topspin: Resurgence, Opportunity, and Russia

The big man is back: Juan Martin Del Potro reached the semifinals in his last two tournaments, but it took a 6-1 6-1 drubbing of Teymuraz Gabashvili to convince me that he is back in form. I didn’t expect the Russian to win, or even to take Del Potro to a third set, but if the Argentine is winning 69% of points against a credible opponent, that tells me a return to the top ten is just a matter of time.

It was a surprisingly quick day in Delray Beach, as none of the four second-round matches went to a third set–and no set even went as far as 5-5! Mardy Fish is easily through to a quarterfinal matchup with Colombian lefty Alejandro Falla.

While the finalist from the bottom half looks like it will be either Del Potro or Fish, the top half of the draw offers an opportunity to a handful of remaining players. Ivan Dodig will have to get past Janko Tipsarevic to stay alive; in the other quarter, Ryan Sweeting takes on Kei Nishikori. It’s a big chance for guys whose original draw put them in the same half as Andy Roddick, Sam Querrey, and James Blake.

Youhzny out of Davis Cup: Mikhail Youhzny has announced that he’s no longer playing Davis Cup. After what feels like a generation of Russia near the top of the Davis Cup rankings, the guard is changing. Nikolay Davydenko is still a dangerous player, but now a less consistent one. The next Russians in the rankings are Gabashvili, Igor Andreev, and Igor Kunitsyn. Not exactly the fearsome team Russia could put on the court five years ago.

Looking forward a few years, there is something to look forward to in Russian tennis. Two of the most promising youngsters in the game, Andrey Kuznetsov and Alexander Lobkov, are potential team members in another year or two. Ranked 230 and 249, respectively, neither has reached his 21st birthday; Kuznetsov just turned 20 on Tuesday. That makes them two of the top 15 under-21s in the game.

In the meantime, Russia could suffer the ignominy of losing to a squad like the Ukraine’s (Alexander Dolgopolov and Sergiy Stakhovsky) or Kazakhstan’s (Andrey Golubev and Mikhail Kukushkin).

What Youhzny’s recovering from: It would be understandable if Youhzny made his announcement after reached the semifinal in Dubai, but no, he lost to Gilles Simon in the first round. With Stakhovsky, he has had more success in doubles, reaching the final earlier today over Dick Norman and Marcel Granollers.

The other semifinal is taking place later today, between the team of Michael Llodra and Nenad Zimonjic and the team of Jeremy Chardy and Feliciano Lopez. Chardy/Lopez doesn’t sound like a world-beating doubles team, but they’ve already taken out Mariusz Fyrstenburg/Marcin Matkowski and Rohan Bopanna/Aisam Qureshi. An impressive week, even if they don’t go any further.

Other results: Semifinalists were determined in both Dubai and Acupulco yesterday. Each one features a set of usual suspects plus one outsider. In Dubai, Richard Gasquet beat Simon to set up a match today with Roger Federer. In Acupulco, Thomaz Bellucci snuck through another match to set up a semifinal with the master of the Golden Swing, Nicholas Almagro.

I watched a good chunk of the Stanislas Wawrinka/Dolgopolov match last night. Dolgopolov wasn’t in absolute top form, but playing the way he is at age 22, you have to wonder if we’re looking at a future French Open winner. He can play from the baseline like a South American, but he isn’t afraid to move around the court. The commentators were getting down on him for some bad volley errors, but what I saw was a player who was creating opportunities for himself at the net. He’s got time to iron out the wrinkles in that part of his game.

Today: If your goal is to watch beautiful tennis strokes, the match of the day is between Federer and Gasquet. They’re playing for a spot in the finals against Novak Djokovic.

If you want the potential for a long, hard-fought match that could go either way, the obvious choice is in Acupulco, between Dolgopolov and David Ferrer. The two have played twice, both on hard courts last summer. Ferrer won in straight sets at the US Open, but Dolgo took him to three in Cincinnati. On a different surface, and as well as the Russian has played of late, I think we can throw those results away.

See you tomorrow!

Thursday Topspin: Challenges and 21-year-olds

Unusual challenge: In his match yesterday against Marcel Granollers, Roger Federer used a challenge on his own first serve–nothing unusual there. But in this case, the original call had been “in!” Fed thought it was out and stopped playing the point accordingly.

He challenged, and he was right. On his second delivery, he ended up losing the point anyway.

More Americans out: I mentioned yesterday that the way things have turned out, it hasn’t been a promoter’s dream in Delray Beach. Andy Roddick withdrew, John Isner lost in the first round, and yesterday, both Sam Querrey and James Blake were defeated. Blake, at least, fell to the popular Kei Nishikori, arguably the best young player not named Milos.

In fact, I was playing with rankings last night, and came up with something interesting. Of players who have not yet reached their 22nd birthday, this is the top 10 in the world:

37   Milos Raonic        CAN  12/27/90  
66   Kei Nishikori       JPN  12/29/89  
74   Richard Berankis    LTU   6/21/90  
81   Grigor Dimitrov     BUL   5/16/91  
120  Benoit Paire        FRA    5/8/89  
138  Donald Young        USA   7/23/89  
143  Federico del Bonis  ARG   10/5/90  
148  Jerzy Janowicz      POL  11/13/90  
150  Ryan Harrison       USA    5/7/92  
160  Thomas Schoorel     NED    4/8/89

That’s pretty much a “who’s who” of up-and-coming young stars. What it highlights for me is just how young some of these guys still are. Sure, we all know that Raonic and Dimitrov are the wave of the future, but we’ve been following Nishikori for years. He’s still this young, and if he can stay injury-free, he has a lot of time to climb to the top.

It’s even more surprising to see Donald Young here. He’s been around forever, but he doesn’t turn 22 until July. Put that in perspective: Had he gone to college and stayed for four years, he’d be in his junior or senior year right now, probably leading Georgia to the national title.

Seedless: The top-ranked players are having a tough time in Wolfsburg this week. In the first round alone, the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd seeds feel. 5th-seeded Steve Darcis lost in the second round, leaving HT.com favorite Jesse Huta Galung as the presumptive favorite.

Yesterday: The biggest upset of the day was Ryan Sweeting‘s victory over Querrey. In a minor coup, Sergey Stakhovsky defeated Ernests Gulbis in Dubai; for his efforts, he gets to face Federer in a few hours. In Acupulco, Stanislas Wawrinka had to work hard, but he eventually got past Fabio Fognini 7-5 in the third.

Today: We’re mostly in quarterfinals now, so things are starting to get interesting. After the Fed-Stakhovsky match, Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon duke it out for a spot in the semis. I’ll be watching.

In Mexico, Wawrinka next has to face Alexander Dolgopolov, the most compelling matchup of the day in that tournament. And in Delray, they are finishing up the second round. Mardy Fish has what should be an easy match against Ricardo Mello, while Juan Martin Del Potro will be challenged by Teymuraz Gabashvili.

See you tomorrow!

Wednesday Topspin: Counterpunchers and Clay Specialists

Counterpunching to the top: I watched parts of two matches yesterday, first Roger Federer (mostly) cruising through his first rounder with Somdev Devvarman, then Gilles Simon finally defeating Mikhail Youhzny.

During the Federer match, the commentators got to talking about how high Devvarman could climb in the rankings. One guys suggested he could break the top 40, implying he would have a hard time getting any higher. Based on what we’ve seen so far, that seems like a fair assessment.

Given the state of the top 10 in men’s tennis right now, it would be easy to conclude that to reach that level, you need at least one major weapon, especially if most of your success comes on hard courts. That’s something Devvarman will probably never have, which is part of the reason that we watch guys like that and assume they will only climb so far.

Then there’s Simon. He has broken into the top 10, and has spent a lot of time in the top 20. Yet, where’s the weapon? Like Andy Murray, he succeeds by getting one more ball back, but unlike Murray, he doesn’t have a big serve. If Simon has a world-class weapon, it’s his speed. That has been enough for him to take down the top players in the world, at least when healthy.

A world of clay: Since Milos Raonic withdrew from Acupulco, that meant Carlos Berlocq‘s first-round matchup was another clay-focused player, Daniel Munoz de la Nava. It took three sets, but Berlocq took the victory. He’ll face Alexander Dolgopolov today.

In looking at some numbers yesterday, I happened to notice that Berlocq played 85 matches last year–84 of which were on clay. Yes, he spent an entire season playing tournaments on clay, only pausing once when his ranking was sufficient to get him into the main draw of the US Open.

He has already played a couple more matches on hard court this year. His ranking crept into the 60s, meaning it’s probably smarter for him to take direct entry into 250s (and, of course, grand slams) than to keep playing challengers. What amazed me what that it is even possible to play so much on clay.

Many players around #100 in the world manage to put together a similar season, but no one’s 2010 was as extreme as Berlocq’s. In fact, Munoz de la Nava played 40 of his 46 matches last year on clay. Another extreme example is Pere Riba. 71 of his 77 matches last year, including all 49 of his victories, came on the red stuff.

Yesterday: The big upset of the day was Thomaz Bellucci over Fernando Verdasco. Also in Acupulco, Nicholas Almagro and Stanislas Wawrinka advanced to the second round.

In Delray Beach, Janko Tipsarevic needed to win a first-set tiebreak 16-14 to get past Ivo Karlovic. Dudi Sela took advantage of Andy Roddick‘s withdrawal and got past Marinko Matosevic in three.

Viktor Troicki was the only seed who struggled in Dubai, losing at the hands of Phillip Kohlschreiber.

Today: Kohlschreiber is already gone, losing today to countryman Phillip Petzschner. The most compelling match on the schedule in Mexico is Wawrinka against Fabio Fognini.

In Florida, the organizers have to be disappointed with Sela versus Ivan Dodig, as that was supposed to be Roddick’s second rounder. But as some consolation, we have Kei Nishikori up against James Blake, a nice contrast of youth and age, speed and power. ESPN had a nice feature on Blake yesterday. It would be nice to see him play more consistently; he’s not a top ten guy anymore, but if he stays healthy, I could see him in the top 40 or 50.

Futures: If all goes according to plan here at HeavyTopspin, I’m going to do a little commentary even on the lowest rung of professional tennis, the Futures circuit. By Wednesday, the draws are in place, so I can pass along what I find.

Most notable this week is Croatia F2, which has a surprisingly strong field–the cut was barely above 500, and recognizable names such as David Guez and Michael Lammer are playing.

In Brownsville, Texas, USA F5 has a typical smattering of notable players. Among the seeds are Moldovan hero Roman Bormanov and young Indian hope Yuki Bhambri. Former NCAA champ Devin Britton is in the draw as well. Wayne Odesnik was on the entry list for qualifying, but it seems that he didn’t play.

See you tomorrow!

Tuesday Morning: Withdrawals and Third-Set Tiebreaks

Pulling out: I guess we won’t be seeing Milos Raonic play on clay after all, at least not for another several weeks. He withdrew from Acupulco with a shoulder injury. That makes room for yet another lucky loser–the third in Mexico, to go along with three in Delray Beach.

Andy Roddick also withdrew from his tournament, but Americans still make up the top three seeds. John Isner, however, is already gone, double-faulting away match point in a third set tiebreak against Teymuraz Gabashvili. Also out of the Delray Beach draw is Ryan Harrison, who lost a three-setter against Florent Serra. Too bad for Harrison, losing a winnable match on home turf.

Today: Half of the Dubai action is over, but still coming is Roger Federer‘s first match since the Australian Open, in which he faces HT.com favorite Somdev Devvarman. I was going to make a comment about how Devvarman’s chances of winning barely merited making the trip, but then I looked it up. First-round losers in Dubai take home better than $11,000 for their efforts. Not bad.

Speaking of Dubai, file this under “matches I want on DVD.” Richard Gasquet made handy work of Grigor Dimitrov–nothing too surprising or thrilling, but imagine what a clinic that was for those of us with one-handed backhands!

In Acupulco, Nicholas Almagro works toward a third straight title by facing Victor Hanescu. You have to wonder why Hanescu chose the golden swing: He lost in the first round in Brazil, then the second round in Buenos Aires, and now he’s almost guaranteed a third-straight early exit. The best match of the day follows Almagro’s, as a battle of the lefties features Fernando Verdasco and Thomaz Bellucci.

Finally, the headliner in Delray is Juan Martin Del Potro against Richard Berankis. Del Potro is starting to look strong again, and with Roddick out of the draw, you might have to consider him a favorite. Crazy as it sounds, if Berankis plays well, he may prove to be Del Potro’s toughest opponent of the week.

Challengers: With three ATP-level tournaments going on, there aren’t a lot of “name” players in the Casablanca and Wolfsburg challengers this week. What there is: Polish 20-year-old Jerzy Janowicz is playing in Wolfsburg, and he beat Olivier Rochus in a third-set tiebreak yesterday to open his week. He’s likely to face Sebastian Rieschick in the next round.

See you tomorrow!

Monday Morning: Roddick, Raonic, Rankings

Raonic and Roddick: The big story from the weekend is, once again, Milos Raonic. He fought Andy Roddick to a third set in the Memphis final, before falling to this highlight reel shot. While he didn’t match his result from San Jose, his run in Memphis was more impressive, as he beat Fernando Verdasco (again), Radek Stepanek, and Mardy Fish to get as far as he did.

Raonic has climbed all the way to 37 in the ATP rankings, guaranteeing him entry to just about every tournament for the rest of the year. This week, he’s one of the few players jumping to Acupulco, where he’ll meet Carlos Berlocq in the first round and face a possible second-round matchup with Alexander Dolgopolov.

Given Milos’s extreme serve-oriented game, it’s tough to imagine him having much success on clay–at least right now. Indeed, he only played two matches on clay in all of 2010, and those were Davis Cup against Colombia. (He lost both.) You have to go back to 2009 to find some tournament results on clay, and let’s just say those aren’t pretty.

Elsewhere: In other finals yesterday, Robin Soderling beat Marin Cilic, and Nicholas Almagro beat Juan Ignacio Chela. Both men won their second consecutive tournament. Raonic ensured that the US circuit has gotten the most attention, but the quality of play in Europe and South America has probably been higher. Marseilles was only an ATP 250, but four of the top 11 players, plus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, were in the draw.

Wozniacki #1: Caroline Wozniacki won in Dubai, giving her the #1 spot in the WTA rankings. That sparked a lengthy back-and-forth at Tennis.com which reveals one problem with any ranking system: It’s not at all clear what it’s supposed to accomplish. It is supposed to be fair, whatever that means? Should it work like a club ladder? Which sorts of players should it allow into tournaments?

These are all tough questions, and the presence of Kim Clijsters and the Williams sisters–extremely talented players who are not #1 but could win any tournament they enter–makes it all the more complicated on the women’s side.

I’ve tinkered a fair bit with alternative methods of ranking players, and a frequent surprise is that the rankings are actually pretty good at predicting who will win any given match. There are various ways to make them a little better, but if a primary goal of the rankings is to present an understandable system to the fans, nothing I’ve devised constitutes an improvement.

This week: The men are playing in Acupulco, Delray Beach, and Dubai. The lineups in Acupulco and Delray Beach look familiar, since they aren’t that different from Buenos Aires and Memphis, respectively.

Dubai, though, looks like they spent some serious money on appearance fees, with both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on board. It’s too bad Soderling is taking the week off; it would be nice to see him in his current form against one or both of those guys.

Most of the top women are in Doha, including Wozniacki, while Acupulco is hosting a WTA event as well.

Check back tomorrow for updates on these tournaments, and more.