At ESPN today, you can read my article on Andy Murray’s quietly excellent clay-court season, and what it might portend for the rest of Andy’s year.
Author: jsackmann
Fun With French Open Rally Length
At the ATP level, the ability to hang around in long rallies seems to be a key to success, especially on clay. Most of the top players are such good defenders that a one-dimensional serve/forehand game just doesn’t cut it.
One stat you’ll occasionally see on television broadcasts is the number of points that reach a certain length, along with how each player is performing on those points. The cutoff I’ve seen most frequently is 8 shots, and that seems like a reasonable enough line to draw.
Armed with point-by-point data from (most of) the men’s singles matches at the French Open, we can take a closer look. The following table shows three numbers for each of the 16 players who reached the 4th round:
- Average rally length–that’s the total number of shots per point for every point that the player contested.
- Percentage of points that reached eight or more shots.
- Percentage of eight-or-more-shot rallies that the player won.
PLAYER Shots/Pt 8+ 8+Wins Juan Ignacio Chela 5.3 25.7% 48.0% Gilles Simon 5.3 25.7% 59.8% Andy Murray 5.1 22.8% 50.5% Viktor Troicki 4.7 19.2% 48.9% Rafael Nadal 4.6 18.3% 56.5% Robin Soderling 4.6 19.5% 55.1% David Ferrer 4.5 16.8% 70.7% Alejandro Falla 4.5 19.7% 47.9% Gael Monfils 4.3 17.3% 44.8% Albert Montanes 4.3 15.2% 46.1% Fabio Fognini 4.3 15.5% 59.5% Novak Djokovic 4.1 16.0% 63.6% Richard Gasquet 4.0 13.9% 57.0% Roger Federer 3.9 14.0% 49.7% Ivan Ljubicic 3.7 11.8% 49.4% Stanislas Wawrinka 3.6 11.1% 46.2%
Unsurprisingly, the first two stats correlate quite closely. The more eight-shot rallies you play, the higher your per-point average will be. What may be more of a surprise is that the number of eight-shot rallies you play doesn’t appear to have much effect on your success in eight-shot rallies. Andy Murray may be an instructive example here: He’s good at keeping himself in long points, but not always so good at doing what he needs to do to win them.
These numbers are far from authoritative–none of these stats comprise more than seven matches, and many comprise only four. With so little data, a single opponent can skew the numbers. For instance, Nadal was closer to the top of the rally-length leaderboard in the Australian Open, but a disproportionate number of his points came against John Isner, who is normally at the extreme other end. Matches against Ljubicic and Federer also kept Nadal’s average down.
The same warning should be made about Ferrer’s impressive 70.7% winning percentage on long points. I don’t doubt that he’s usually quite good in such rallies, but his four matches included two against players who are the exact opposite: Jarkko Nieminen and Sergiy Stakhovsky.
As more data of this sort becomes available, it will be interesting to see what trends emerge.
French Open Odds Update: Quarterfinals
The draw looked odd this morning — Andy Murray and Viktor Troicki were still in the fourth round, while Novak Djokovic was safely in the semis following Fabio Fognini’s withdrawal. (Djokovic’s odds of advancing didn’t change much with Fognini’s withdrawal!)
Now that things are back to normal, we can update the odds. My rankings make Novak the 2-1 favorite to reach the final over Federer–probably a little optimistic for Roger, but you have to admit, the Swiss has looked surprisingly good this week. Largely thanks to Djokovic, there’s a 60% chance that the tournament winner comes from the bottom half.
Here are the odds for the remaining players:
Player SF F W (1)Rafael Nadal 68.9% 49.6% 24.9% (5)Robin Soderling 31.1% 17.1% 5.1% (4)Andy Murray 86.8% 32.1% 10.0% Juan Ignacio Chela 13.2% 1.1% 0.1% (3)Roger Federer 100.0% 33.1% 16.2% (2)Novak Djokovic 100.0% 66.9% 43.8%
The French Open’s New Balls
Italian translation at settesei.it
Much has been made over the new balls at Roland Garros this year–players have complained that they are lighter, heavier, that they bounce differently. As far as bounce and spin is concerned, there isn’t much we can glean from the available data. But we can take a broad look at server dominance to get a sense of how the French is playing this year.
Several months ago, I looked at most of the ATP-level matches from 2010, and determined that the server wins points on different surfaces at the following rates:
- Clay: 61.5%
- Hard: 63.7%
- Grass: 65.9%
The gaps between those numbers may not look very big, but they represent a major indicator in the differences between surfaces. If the gap between clay and hard is 2.2%, then 2.2% must be a pretty big deal!
I’ve also determined the following regarding ace rates–again, using 2010 data. “Ace rate” is simply the percentage of serves that are aces:
- Clay: 5.5%
- Hard: 8.5%
- Grass: 10.5%
Now that’s a big difference.
Roland Garros
What about the French? Taking the 2010 event as a whole, players won 62.4% of service points, and served aces 6.6% of the time. Thus, I think it’s reasonable to conclude that the courts at RG last year played faster than most other clay-court ATP events. Weather and–you guessed it–other equipment, such as balls, can also make a difference.
This year, 112 of the 127 men’s matches have already been played, including over 17,000 points, so I think it’s safe to start drawing conclusions. This year, servers are only winning 62.0% of points–roughly halfway between the clay-court average and the results from last year’s “fast” RG. More dramatically, players are only scoring aces on 5.6% of points, well below last year’s figure at the French.
I can’t shed any light on the specific quirks shown by the new balls, but for whatever reason, the French is playing more like an average clay-court event than it did last year.
French Open Odds Update: 4th Round
With Juan Martin del Potro out of the way, Novak Djokovic is once again the odds-on favorite to win the French Open. His chances of winning are up to 38.7%, while Rafael Nadal’s haven’t budged much, now sitting at 25.8%.
Djokovic seems set to cruise into the semifinals, at least. Tomorrow he’ll face Richard Gasquet, and then in the quarters it gets even easier, with either Fabio Fognini or Albert Montanes. Things have worked out nicely for another Serbian, as well. Viktor Troicki will play Andy Murray–not the easiest draw, of course, but made easier by Murray’s ankle-twisting today. And whoever comes out of that match should be able to reach a semifinal date with Nadal, as the next opponent will be either Alejandro Falla or Juan Ignacio Chela.
Here are the full odds:
Player QF SF F W
(1)Rafael Nadal 84.4% 61.5% 46.8% 25.8%
Ivan Ljubicic 15.6% 4.9% 2.0% 0.4%
(18)Gilles Simon 28.7% 6.4% 2.7% 0.6%
(5)Robin Soderling 71.3% 27.1% 16.4% 5.9%
(4)Andy Murray 76.0% 67.0% 27.3% 10.1%
(15)Viktor Troicki 24.0% 16.9% 3.2% 0.5%
(q)Alejandro Falla 40.7% 5.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela 59.3% 10.7% 1.2% 0.1%
Player QF SF F W
(7)David Ferrer 55.8% 22.4% 6.9% 2.7%
(9)Gael Monfils 44.2% 15.7% 3.9% 1.3%
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 25.6% 10.8% 2.4% 0.7%
(3)Roger Federer 74.4% 51.0% 21.8% 11.1%
Fabio Fognini 38.5% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1%
Albert Montanes 61.5% 6.3% 1.4% 0.2%
(13)Richard Gasquet 17.5% 13.5% 5.5% 1.8%
(2)Novak Djokovic 82.5% 77.2% 57.5% 38.7%
French Open Odds Update: 3rd Round
Three-quarters of the field has been eliminated, and we’re left with 32 men standing. Who’s left: 6 of the top 8, 13 of the top 16, and 21 of the top 32. All the wild cards and lucky losers are out (though Marsel Ilhan went down fighting!) but of the 11 unseeded players still in the draw, an amazing six are qualifiers.
In the odds below, you might notice an interesting twist. Suddenly, Nadal is the favorite! As Juan Martin del Potro has taken care of business and ensured a third-round clash with Novak Djokovic, Djokovic’s chances of reaching each successive round have decreased. But the men in Nadal’s section have done him favors–especially qualifier Antonio Veic, who knocked out Nikolay Davydenko today. The Russian is always a threat, but I don’t think we can say the same about Veic.
Nadal’s chances are up to 26.9%, while Djokovic’s have fallen to 25.8%. Of course, both of those numbers are far beyond anyone else in the field. On the other end, qualifiers Veic and Steve Darcis have the smallest chances of winning the title–they each won it all only once per 50,000 simulations. The qualifier with the best chance is Lukasz Kubot, who is about 15 times more likely than Darcis to take home his first grand slam championship.
Player R16 QF SF W
(1)Rafael Nadal 95.4% 78.9% 59.0% … 26.9%
(q)Antonio Veic 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% … 0.0%
Ivan Ljubicic 40.6% 7.4% 2.6% … 0.2%
(16)Fernando Verdasco 59.4% 12.8% 5.8% … 0.9%
(10)Mardy Fish 54.4% 21.1% 5.3% … 0.7%
(18)Giles Simon 45.6% 16.1% 3.9% … 0.4%
(q)Leonardo Mayer 14.6% 4.1% 0.5% … 0.0%
(5)Robin Soderling 85.4% 58.7% 22.8% … 5.8%
Player R16 QF SF W
(4)Andy Murray 88.7% 68.7% 60.9% … 10.6%
Michael Berrer 11.3% 3.4% 1.7% … 0.0%
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 44.2% 11.6% 7.9% … 0.2%
(15)Viktor Troicki 55.9% 16.4% 11.8% … 0.5%
(q)Lukasz Kubot 51.0% 22.5% 3.6% … 0.0%
(q)Alejandro Falla 49.0% 22.0% 3.5% … 0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela 60.9% 36.4% 7.6% … 0.1%
(q)Lukas Rosol 39.1% 19.2% 3.0% … 0.0%
Player R16 QF SF W
(7)David Ferrer 81.0% 49.2% 22.2% … 3.0%
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky 19.0% 5.9% 1.0% … 0.0%
(q)Steve Darcis 14.6% 2.3% 0.2% … 0.0%
(9)Gael Monfils 85.4% 42.7% 17.1% … 1.6%
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 50.2% 16.0% 7.1% … 0.6%
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 49.8% 16.0% 7.1% … 0.6%
(29)Janko Tipsarevic 18.0% 7.0% 2.5% … 0.1%
(3)Roger Federer 82.0% 61.0% 42.7% … 10.6%
Player R16 QF SF W
Fabio Fognini 36.6% 13.2% 1.3% … 0.0%
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 63.4% 33.1% 4.8% … 0.3%
Albert Montanes 43.1% 22.3% 2.7% … 0.1%
(12)Mikhail Youzhny 56.9% 31.4% 5.4% … 0.3%
(13)Richard Gasquet 63.6% 13.3% 9.4% … 1.5%
(23)Thomaz Bellucci 36.4% 4.9% 2.9% … 0.2%
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro 35.2% 26.9% 23.3% … 8.7%
(2)Novak Djokovic 64.8% 54.9% 50.2% … 25.8%
French Open Odds Update: 2nd round
64 men are out of the draw, with the usual handful of first-round surprises. Murray’s quarter has gotten even weaker with the early exit of Nicolas Almagro, while Berdych’s 1st-round defeat doesn’t affect Djokovic’s odds much.
Oddly enough, there are more very-lopsided matchups in the 2nd round than there were in the first. Nadal, del Potro, and Djokovic all have a 93% chance of advancing to the third round, while Federer is above 91%. The only two ultra-tight matchups this round are in Melzer’s section, where Kevin Anderson and Juan Ignacio Chela are close to dead even, and Carlos Berlocq is roughly equal with qualifer Lukasz Kubot.
Remarkably, 8 of the 16 qualifiers got through to the second round, while 2 of the 6 lucky losers did so. 3 of the 8 wild cards advanced, though one of those was a foregone conclusion, as two WCs faced off in the first round.
Here are the odds for the rest of the tournament:
Player R32 R16 QF W
(1)Rafael Nadal 93.9% 75.0% 63.5% … 22.0%
Pablo Andujar 6.1% 1.7% 0.4% … 0.0%
(q)Antonio Veic 17.7% 1.2% 0.3% … 0.0%
(28)Nikolay Davydenko 82.3% 22.1% 12.4% … 0.7%
(24)Sam Querrey 41.4% 16.6% 2.9% … 0.1%
Ivan Ljubicic 58.6% 27.4% 6.3% … 0.2%
Xavier Malisse 23.7% 8.6% 1.2% … 0.0%
(16)Fernando Verdasco 76.3% 47.4% 13.0% … 0.9%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(10)Mardy Fish 71.1% 42.1% 17.5% … 0.7%
Robin Haase 28.9% 10.7% 2.6% … 0.0%
Jeremy Chardy 35.0% 13.6% 3.7% … 0.0%
(18)Gilles Simon 65.0% 33.7% 12.8% … 0.4%
(27)Marcos Baghdatis 67.8% 24.1% 12.6% … 0.3%
(q)Leonardo Mayer 32.2% 6.1% 1.9% … 0.0%
(q)Albert Ramos 10.1% 2.8% 0.6% … 0.0%
(5)Robin Soderling 89.9% 67.0% 48.3% … 5.3%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(4)Andy Murray 89.1% 80.3% 64.1% … 8.8%
(LL)Simone Bolelli 10.9% 5.9% 2.1% … 0.0%
(WC)Arnaud Clement 41.3% 4.8% 1.2% … 0.0%
Michael Berrer 58.7% 8.9% 3.1% … 0.0%
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 66.2% 33.7% 10.3% … 0.2%
Andreas Haider-Maurer 33.8% 12.2% 2.6% … 0.0%
Tobias Kamke 26.6% 9.6% 1.8% … 0.0%
(15)Viktor Troicki 73.4% 44.5% 14.9% … 0.3%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(q)Lukasz Kubot 50.6% 16.0% 4.1% … 0.0%
Carlos Berlocq 49.4% 15.6% 4.0% … 0.0%
(q)Alejandro Falla 24.1% 11.9% 2.8% … 0.0%
(20)Florian Mayer 75.9% 56.6% 27.0% … 0.5%
(32)Kevin Anderson 51.4% 14.4% 6.3% … 0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela 48.6% 14.2% 6.1% … 0.0%
(q)Lukas Rosol 15.3% 5.8% 2.1% … 0.0%
(8)Jurgen Melzer 84.7% 65.6% 47.6% … 2.5%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(7)David Ferrer 77.4% 53.7% 34.7% … 2.4%
Julien Benneteau 22.6% 9.0% 3.3% … 0.0%
Kei Nishikori 68.8% 29.3% 15.2% … 0.3%
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky 31.2% 8.0% 2.7% … 0.0%
(q)Steve Darcis 30.0% 6.0% 1.0% … 0.0%
Philipp Petzschner 70.0% 24.1% 7.8% … 0.0%
(WC)Guillaume Rufin 17.0% 6.8% 1.4% … 0.0%
(9)Gael Monfils 83.0% 63.1% 33.9% … 1.4%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 75.3% 43.0% 15.1% … 0.6%
(q)Thomas Schoorel 24.7% 8.0% 1.4% … 0.0%
Igor Andreev 25.5% 7.3% 1.1% … 0.0%
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 74.5% 41.7% 14.5% … 0.6%
(29)Janko Tipsarevic 68.9% 15.1% 6.5% … 0.1%
Pere Riba 31.1% 4.0% 1.0% … 0.0%
(WC)Maxime Teixeira 8.2% 2.8% 0.6% … 0.0%
(3)Roger Federer 91.8% 78.1% 59.8% … 11.5%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(q)Stephane Robert 32.4% 9.3% 2.4% … 0.0%
Fabio Fognini 67.6% 29.0% 11.7% … 0.0%
(LL)Marsel Ilhan 31.9% 15.3% 5.3% … 0.0%
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 68.1% 46.4% 25.8% … 0.2%
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo 21.4% 5.0% 1.4% … 0.0%
Albert Montanes 78.6% 39.3% 22.0% … 0.2%
Mikhail Kukushkin 31.2% 12.9% 5.3% … 0.0%
(12)Mikhail Youzhny 68.8% 42.8% 26.1% … 0.3%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(13)Richard Gasquet 79.7% 55.2% 11.7% … 1.5%
Marcel Granollers 20.3% 7.8% 0.6% … 0.0%
Andreas Seppi 33.0% 8.6% 0.6% … 0.0%
(23)Thomaz Bellucci 67.0% 28.4% 4.0% … 0.2%
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro 93.4% 35.1% 27.6% … 9.8%
Blaz Kavcic 6.6% 0.3% 0.1% … 0.0%
Victor Hanescu 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% … 0.0%
(2)Novak Djokovic 95.9% 64.2% 55.4% … 27.6%
Winners and Losers in the French Open Draw
Yesterday I offered a full breakdown of the French Open draw, with each player’s chances of advancing to each of several rounds. In any draw of this kind, there are winners and losers, thanks to the luck of the … well, draw.
In a 128-player field seeded in the manner that Grand Slams are seeded, there are nearly 100,000 permutations of the draw. The vast majority don’t matter — for instance, if you swapped Thiemo de Bakker and John Isner so that de Bakker played Nadal in the first round and Isner played Djokovic in the first round (instead of vice versa), no one’s chances of winning the title would change much.
But, of course, many of the possible permutations would matter a whole lot. Just ask de Bakker or Isner! Imagine how much better it would be for Isner to have a first round draw against, say, Yen-Hsun Lu, followed by a probable second-rounder against Sergiy Stakhovsky. In fact, that’s Kei Nishikori’s draw, and in that sense, Nishikori was very lucky that the chips fell where they did.
Stepping back
In my previous draw simulations–like the one I published yesterday–I took the actual bracket as a given. To generate the probabilities you see in yesterday’s chart, I had a computer program “play” the tournament 100,000 times, each time pitting Isner against Nadal in the first round, then the winner of that match against the winner of Giraldo/Andujar, and so on.
There’s a different way we could approach this. Instead of starting the simulation from the point at which the draw is set, we could start from the point at which the field was set and seeded. At that point, Isner would know that he is not seeded–and thus, that he would probably face a seed in the first or second round–but not which higher-ranked player he would face.
So, instead of 100,000 simulations of the actual French Open bracket, we can do 100,000 simulations of the draw itself, followed by simulating each ensuing bracket. Sometimes, Isner draws Nadal, sometimes he draws Hanescu, and so on.
Measuring draw implications
A good way to gauge a player’s overall chances at a tournament is his predicted prize money. Most players don’t have a significant chance of winning most tournaments (especially slams), so to compare Giraldo’s 0.01% chance of winning the title with Cuevas’s 0.02% chance doesn’t tell us much. But if we consider the possibility that each player reaches each round, we can estimate that Giraldo will take home E24,600, while Cuevas will collect E29,500. These numbers represent an average of the first-round prize money, second-round prize money, and so on, weighted by the probability that the player will reach each of those stages.
With this metric, we can compare the implications of the actual draw with the implications of the randomized draw, in which, for instance, Nadal could play any one of the 96 unseeded players in the first round.
Let’s compare the two outcomes in an extreme case. As we’ve seen, the draw was not kind to John Isner. My algorithm gives him a 12% chance of reaching the second round, and less than a 1% chance of reaching the semis. Crunch the numbers, and you have predicted prize money of E22,700. When you randomize the draw and he no longer has to beat Nadal in the first round, his chances of reaching the second round leap to 60%, and he has a 2% shot at a semifinal berth. Predicted prize money: E40,100.
As it turns out, Isner is our biggest loser. His predicted prize money fell more than 40% between the beginning and end of the draw ceremony. What’s remarkable is that the next four players on the list all come from the same 1/16th of the draw–you guessed it, Djokovic’s section.
The draw effect on Thiemo de Bakker is similar to that on Isner–it doesn’t get any worse than drawing Djokovic in the first round. Next on the list are Ernests Gulbis, Ivo Karlovic, and Juan Martin del Potro. Karlovic and Gulbis not only have the misfortune of drawing Delpo in the first two rounds, but if by some chance they get past the Argentine, then they face Djokovic! Each of those players lost more than 30% of their predicted prize money through the vagaries of the draw.
Del Potro is an interesting case. As is, his predicted prize money is E184,600. Before the draw was set, he could expect E266,000. The biggest difference, of course, is his chance of reaching the round of 16. In real life, he’ll need to beat Djokovic to get there, and he has a 30% chance of getting that far. Before the bracket was drawn, the expectation was that he’d need only to defeat someone in the top 16 (or possibly, a player who had upset someone in the top 16). He had a 63% chance of doing so.
Winners
Naturally, if there are so many players whose predicted prize money decreased, some players must have benefited from the way the draw played out.
One of the biggest winners was Andy Murray. As we’ve seen, plenty of dangerous players are concentrated in Djokovic’s quarter; in fact, Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer were all hurt by the draw. But Murray’s draw boosted his predicted prize money from E191,700 to E240,800. He’ll face a qualifier or lucky loser in each of the first two rounds, then no one more challenging than Milos Raonic in the third. Next would be Dolgopolov or Troicki–no walkovers, but compare that to Nadal’s possible fourth-rounder of Verdasco, and you see how the breaks went in Andy’s favor.
Murray’s quarter is the softest of the four, and other men benefit even more. In fact, the two players whose chances the draw boosted the most are Nicholas Almagro and Jurgen Melzer, who will likely play in the fourth round for a matchup with Murray in the quarters. Almagro, Melzer, and Juan Ignacio Chela (also in this section) all saw their predicted prize money jump by more than 40%. For example, Almagro went from E76,100 to E112,400–and more than doubled his chances of winning the title from 0.6% to 1.3%–by landing where he did in the bracket.
Regardless of any player’s specific placement, the best man will probably win. But the draw certainly has a say in how tricky the route to the title will be.
French Open Predictions
The qualifying rounds are over, and the draw is set. I plugged the full 128-man bracket into my simulator, combined it with my most recent clay-specific rankings, and the full results are below.
A few quick hits on the draw and the simulation results:
- All of the top three players have challenging draws. Nadal faces Isner in the first, then possibly Davydenko in the third, Verdasco in the 4th, and Soderling in the quarters. Federer drew Feliciano Lopez in the first. And Djokovic got the worst possible outcome: Del Potro in the third. There probably isn’t an upset there, but if anybody’s going to take Novak out before the final, Delpo’s my bet.
- There are eight Americans in the draw. The odds that a US player–any US player–wins the tourney is 0.83%. The odds that all eight are knocked out in the first round? 0.85%. Only Fish and Sweeting are favorites in their opening matches.
- On the country-by-country theme, France has 20 men in the main draw, with a likelihood of just under 4% that a Frenchmen will win the title. Spain has 14, for a total title shot of 26.4% — just below Djokovic’s chances by himself.
- Some tight matchups in the first round: Fognini/Istomin, Hewitt/Montanes, Brands/Kukushkin, Paire/Hanescu (home court advantage flips that in Paire’s favor), Teixeira/Millot (two wild cards), Tomic/Berlocq, Gimeno-Traver/Haase, and Tursunov/Malisse.
- The most lopsided first-rounder–according to the numbers–is Djokovic vs. de Bakker, followed by Andy Murray vs. Eric Prodon, the only two where my system gives the favorite a 90% chance of advancing. There are plenty in the high 80’s, as well.
Here are the full simulation results:
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(1)Rafael Nadal 87.5% 81.4% 67.3% … 21.30%
John Isner 12.5% 8.3% 4.2% … 0.05%
Santiago Giraldo 60.4% 6.9% 2.6% … 0.01%
Pablo Andujar 39.6% 3.5% 1.0% … 0.00%
Pablo Cuevas 67.0% 25.0% 4.0% … 0.02%
(q)Antonio Veic 33.0% 7.8% 0.7% … 0.00%
(q)Denis Gremelmayr 14.6% 4.8% 0.4% … 0.00%
(28)Nikolay Davydenko 85.4% 62.3% 19.8% … 0.72%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(24)Sam Querrey 42.6% 20.5% 9.1% … 0.04%
Philipp Kohlschreiber 57.4% 31.2% 15.7% … 0.13%
Ivan Ljubicic 72.0% 39.5% 20.6% … 0.20%
Somdev Devvarman 28.0% 8.8% 2.8% … 0.00%
Dmitry Tursunov 44.9% 12.1% 4.1% … 0.00%
Xavier Malisse 55.1% 16.4% 5.9% … 0.01%
Juan Monaco 34.7% 21.0% 9.7% … 0.04%
(16)Fernando Verdasco 65.3% 50.4% 32.1% … 0.77%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(10)Mardy Fish 82.3% 59.3% 36.6% … 0.70%
Ricardo Mello 17.7% 6.5% 1.7% … 0.00%
Daniel Gimeno-Traver 47.9% 16.1% 6.2% … 0.01%
Robin Haase 52.1% 18.1% 7.2% … 0.02%
Jeremy Chardy 52.5% 21.7% 9.1% … 0.03%
Grigor Dimitrov 47.5% 17.9% 7.2% … 0.02%
Michael Russell 16.0% 4.5% 1.0% … 0.00%
(18)Gilles Simon 84.0% 55.9% 31.0% … 0.41%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(27)Marcos Baghdatis 71.6% 51.3% 20.0% … 0.36%
Frederico Gil 28.4% 14.1% 3.0% … 0.00%
(q)Leonardo Mayer 58.4% 22.3% 5.0% … 0.01%
Dustin Brown 41.6% 12.3% 2.2% … 0.00%
(q)Albert Ramos 77.0% 10.8% 3.5% … 0.00%
(q)Javier Marti 23.0% 1.2% 0.1% … 0.00%
Benjamin Becker 10.4% 6.1% 2.1% … 0.00%
(5)Robin Soderling 89.6% 81.9% 64.0% … 5.86%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(4)Andy Murray 91.0% 82.1% 60.3% … 7.11%
(q)Eric Prodon 9.0% 4.3% 1.2% … 0.00%
(LL)Simon Bolelli 58.1% 8.6% 2.6% … 0.01%
(q)Frank Dancevic 41.9% 5.0% 1.2% … 0.00%
(WC)Arnaud Clement 46.8% 9.2% 1.3% … 0.00%
Filippo Volandri 53.2% 12.0% 2.0% … 0.00%
Michael Berrer 19.2% 10.6% 2.0% … 0.00%
(26)Milos Raonic 80.8% 68.2% 29.4% … 1.17%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 80.2% 48.8% 26.6% … 0.14%
Rainer Schuettler 19.8% 5.6% 1.4% … 0.00%
Andreas Haider-Maurer 41.1% 16.6% 6.4% … 0.00%
Ryan Sweeting 58.9% 29.0% 13.7% … 0.03%
Tobias Kamke 39.2% 12.9% 4.8% … 0.00%
Olivier Rochus 60.8% 24.4% 11.5% … 0.02%
Julian Reister 27.6% 12.5% 4.7% … 0.00%
(15)Viktor Troicki 72.4% 50.1% 30.7% … 0.22%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(11)Nicolas Almagro 82.4% 66.6% 46.5% … 1.30%
(q)Lukasz Kubot 17.6% 8.5% 3.0% … 0.00%
Carlos Berlocq 48.2% 11.6% 4.0% … 0.00%
(WC)Bernard Tomic 51.8% 13.3% 5.0% … 0.00%
Potito Starace 55.8% 19.8% 6.4% … 0.01%
(q)Alejandro Falla 44.2% 13.4% 3.7% … 0.00%
Igor Kunitsyn 20.4% 8.3% 2.0% … 0.00%
(20)Florian Mayer 79.6% 58.5% 29.4% … 0.36%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(32)Kevin Anderson 61.3% 34.3% 11.4% … 0.02%
Nicolas Mahut 38.7% 16.5% 4.0% … 0.00%
Juan Ignacio Chela 62.6% 33.8% 11.5% … 0.02%
(WC)Tim Smyczek 37.4% 15.3% 3.7% … 0.00%
(WC)Edouard Roger-Vasselin 54.4% 12.8% 6.0% … 0.00%
(q)Lukas Rosol 45.6% 9.4% 4.0% … 0.00%
(LL)Andreas Beck 15.2% 7.6% 3.3% … 0.00%
(8)Jurgen Melzer 84.8% 70.2% 56.0% … 2.09%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(7)David Ferrer 81.2% 65.7% 47.5% … 2.54%
Jarkko Nieminen 18.8% 9.9% 3.8% … 0.00%
Julien Benneteau 64.9% 18.2% 8.1% … 0.03%
Rui Machado 35.1% 6.3% 1.8% … 0.00%
Kei Nishikori 78.9% 57.6% 27.6% … 0.43%
Yen-Hsun Lu 21.1% 9.2% 1.9% … 0.00%
(q)David Guez 32.2% 7.6% 1.4% … 0.00%
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky 67.8% 25.6% 7.9% … 0.01%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(22)Michael Llodra 73.5% 42.4% 17.7% … 0.09%
(q)Steve Darcis 26.5% 9.0% 2.0% … 0.00%
Philipp Petzschner 64.0% 34.4% 13.3% … 0.03%
Mischa Zverev 36.0% 14.2% 4.1% … 0.01%
Adrian Mannarino 56.9% 15.3% 6.6% … 0.01%
(WC)Guillaume Rufin 43.1% 9.6% 3.5% … 0.00%
(q)Bjorn Phau 12.1% 4.4% 1.2% … 0.00%
(9)Gael Monfils 87.9% 70.6% 51.6% … 1.45%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 85.8% 66.1% 40.1% … 0.83%
(q)Augustin Gensse 14.2% 5.2% 1.2% … 0.00%
(q)Thomas Schoorel 55.6% 17.0% 6.2% … 0.01%
Maximo Gonzalez 44.4% 11.7% 3.8% … 0.00%
Florent Serra 37.4% 8.4% 2.2% … 0.00%
Igor Andreev 62.6% 19.4% 6.4% … 0.01%
Jan Hajek 18.2% 8.4% 2.3% … 0.00%
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 81.8% 63.7% 37.8% … 0.78%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(29)Janko Tipsarevic 75.9% 46.3% 13.2% … 0.11%
Brian Dabul 24.1% 8.1% 1.0% … 0.00%
Ivan Dodig 61.9% 31.2% 7.7% … 0.06%
Pere Riba 38.1% 14.4% 2.3% … 0.00%
(WC)Vincent Millot 46.5% 4.6% 1.5% … 0.00%
(WC)Maxime Teixeira 53.5% 6.1% 2.2% … 0.00%
Feliciano Lopez 23.4% 18.6% 11.9% … 0.27%
(3)Roger Federer 76.6% 70.7% 60.2% … 9.85%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(6)Tomas Berdych 87.7% 68.0% 51.2% … 1.58%
(q)Stephane Robert 12.3% 3.9% 1.3% … 0.00%
Fabio Fognini 50.9% 15.1% 7.1% … 0.01%
Denis Istomin 49.1% 13.1% 6.3% … 0.01%
Tommy Haas 26.8% 5.3% 0.7% … 0.00%
(LL)Marsel Ilhan 73.2% 28.1% 7.4% … 0.00%
Robert Kendrick 22.6% 9.9% 1.9% … 0.00%
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 77.4% 56.7% 24.1% … 0.13%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(19)Marin Cilic 88.4% 61.4% 42.6% … 0.93%
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo 11.6% 2.7% 0.7% … 0.00%
Lleyton Hewitt 45.7% 14.7% 7.4% … 0.03%
Albert Montanes 54.3% 21.1% 11.2% … 0.04%
Daniel Brands 47.0% 15.8% 4.1% … 0.00%
Mikhail Kukushkin 53.0% 20.0% 5.7% … 0.01%
Go Soeda 18.7% 6.8% 1.3% … 0.00%
(12)Mikhail Youzhny 81.3% 57.3% 26.9% … 0.19%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(13)Richard Gasquet 69.1% 56.4% 40.9% … 1.08%
Radek Stepanek 30.9% 20.3% 10.8% … 0.05%
(LL)Alex Bogomolov Jr. 42.8% 8.7% 3.0% … 0.00%
Marcel Granollers 57.2% 14.6% 6.0% … 0.00%
Teymuraz Gabashvili 44.6% 12.8% 3.3% … 0.00%
Andreas Seppi 55.4% 20.6% 6.5% … 0.01%
Andrey Golubev 34.5% 20.1% 7.0% … 0.01%
(23)Thomaz Bellucci 65.5% 46.5% 22.5% … 0.17%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro 89.0% 72.9% 30.1% … 8.40%
Ivo Karlovic 11.0% 3.5% 0.4% … 0.00%
Ernests Gulbis 80.2% 21.5% 4.5% … 0.20%
Blaz Kavcic 19.8% 2.0% 0.1% … 0.00%
(WC)Benoit Paire 51.7% 3.7% 0.5% … 0.00%
Victor Hanescu 48.3% 3.2% 0.4% … 0.00%
Thiemo De Bakker 6.3% 3.6% 0.6% … 0.00%
(2)Novak Djokovic 93.7% 89.5% 63.3% … 27.42%
Clay Court Power Rankings at ESPN.com
Head on over to the tennis page at ESPN.com to see my first article for them: Clay-court Power Rankings.
The rankings haven’t changed much, but I did submit it last week, so it doesn’t reflect Rome results. As I pointed out the other day, the Rome final gave Djokovic the #1 ranking in my system, and it also moved a few other players around–notably, Gasquet into the top 10 and Verdasco out.