Here are my pre-tournament odds for the 2012 US Open. For some background reading, follow the links for more on my player rating system, current rankings, and more on how I simulate tournaments.
Player R64 R32 R16 W
1 Victoria Azarenka 92.6% 83.5% 70.0% 12.5%
Alexandra Panova 7.4% 3.2% 1.0% 0.0%
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova 46.8% 6.0% 2.1% 0.0%
Kirsten Flipkens 53.2% 7.3% 2.7% 0.0%
Su-Wei Hsieh 56.4% 24.1% 5.4% 0.0%
Magdalena Rybarikova 43.6% 16.0% 2.9% 0.0%
Virginie Razzano 41.4% 22.8% 5.2% 0.0%
28 Jie Zheng 58.6% 37.1% 10.6% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
18 Julia Goerges 80.7% 66.0% 37.5% 0.8%
Kristyna Pliskova 19.3% 10.1% 2.6% 0.0%
Mandy Minella 50.2% 12.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Olivia Rogowska 49.8% 11.9% 2.9% 0.0%
Stephanie Foretz Gacon 43.0% 7.4% 2.0% 0.0%
Anna Tatishvili 57.0% 12.4% 4.0% 0.0%
Sorana Cirstea 40.3% 30.8% 16.9% 0.2%
16 Sabine Lisicki 59.7% 49.4% 31.2% 0.8%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
9 Na Li 85.7% 75.7% 41.9% 4.6%
Heather Watson 14.3% 8.0% 1.6% 0.0%
Lesia Tsurenko 45.0% 6.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Casey Dellacqua 55.0% 9.7% 1.8% 0.0%
Samantha Crawford 14.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Laura Robson 86.0% 14.2% 3.6% 0.0%
Victoria Duval 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
23 Kim Clijsters 99.1% 85.3% 50.1% 5.5%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
31 Varvara Lepchenko 66.9% 44.1% 15.7% 0.0%
Mathilde Johansson 33.1% 16.1% 3.7% 0.0%
Anastasia Rodionova 55.9% 23.4% 5.9% 0.0%
Julia Cohen 44.1% 16.4% 3.5% 0.0%
Edina Gallovits-Hall 44.2% 7.1% 2.7% 0.0%
Stefanie Voegele 55.8% 10.8% 4.7% 0.0%
Petra Martic 25.5% 17.6% 10.7% 0.0%
7 Samantha Stosur 74.5% 64.5% 53.0% 2.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
3 Maria Sharapova 86.5% 77.7% 67.0% 9.3%
Melinda Czink 13.5% 7.9% 4.1% 0.0%
Lourdes Dominguez Lino 48.9% 6.9% 3.0% 0.0%
Sesil Karatantcheva 51.1% 7.4% 3.3% 0.0%
Timea Bacsinszky 70.8% 19.4% 2.5% 0.0%
Mallory Burdette 29.2% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Lucie Hradecka 38.0% 27.1% 5.7% 0.0%
27 Anabel Medina Garrigues 62.0% 49.6% 14.1% 0.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
19 Nadia Petrova 67.0% 36.1% 19.5% 0.2%
Jarmila Gajdosova 33.0% 12.0% 4.4% 0.0%
Simona Halep 49.9% 25.8% 12.8% 0.1%
Iveta Benesova 50.1% 26.1% 13.0% 0.1%
Alexandra Cadantu 21.3% 4.5% 1.0% 0.0%
Aleksandra Wozniak 78.7% 37.7% 18.7% 0.2%
Melanie Oudin 30.9% 13.9% 5.3% 0.0%
15 Lucie Safarova 69.1% 43.9% 25.4% 0.4%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
11 Marion Bartoli 78.4% 46.4% 28.9% 1.2%
Jamie Hampton 21.6% 6.4% 2.1% 0.0%
Romina Oprandi 24.5% 7.1% 2.3% 0.0%
Andrea Petkovic 75.5% 40.2% 23.9% 0.7%
Kristina Mladenovic 37.5% 7.2% 1.4% 0.0%
Marina Erakovic 62.5% 17.6% 4.9% 0.0%
Daniela Hantuchova 48.8% 36.5% 17.6% 0.4%
17 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 51.2% 38.7% 18.9% 0.5%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
25 Yanina Wickmayer 82.8% 64.6% 26.3% 0.6%
Julia Glushko 17.2% 7.3% 1.2% 0.0%
Pauline Parmentier 45.4% 11.9% 2.1% 0.0%
Michaella Krajicek 54.6% 16.2% 3.3% 0.0%
Nicole Gibbs 23.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Alize Cornet 76.5% 15.0% 5.8% 0.0%
Polona Hercog 15.7% 9.2% 3.9% 0.0%
5 Petra Kvitova 84.3% 74.0% 57.1% 6.9%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
8 Caroline Wozniacki 85.1% 72.5% 52.5% 4.1%
Irina-Camelia Begu 14.9% 7.6% 2.4% 0.0%
Silvia Soler-Espinosa 57.0% 12.3% 4.3% 0.0%
Alla Kudryavtseva 43.0% 7.6% 2.2% 0.0%
Tsvetana Pironkova 68.7% 48.3% 22.8% 0.5%
Camila Giorgi 31.3% 16.4% 5.2% 0.0%
Ayumi Morita 37.6% 10.7% 2.6% 0.0%
26 Monica Niculescu 62.4% 24.5% 8.0% 0.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
22 Francesca Schiavone 55.4% 41.9% 18.9% 0.2%
Sloane Stephens 44.6% 31.9% 12.9% 0.1%
Akgul Amanmuradova 52.9% 14.2% 3.3% 0.0%
Tatjana Malek 47.1% 12.0% 2.5% 0.0%
Kimiko Date-Krumm 29.2% 5.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Sofia Arvidsson 70.8% 25.3% 13.4% 0.1%
Elina Svitolina 13.8% 4.5% 1.4% 0.0%
12 Ana Ivanovic 86.2% 64.4% 45.8% 1.6%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
14 Maria Kirilenko 67.6% 50.9% 31.6% 0.6%
Chanelle Scheepers 32.4% 19.5% 8.6% 0.0%
Agnes Szavay 16.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Greta Arn 83.8% 28.2% 11.2% 0.0%
Galina Voskoboeva 59.1% 30.2% 15.0% 0.1%
Arantxa Rus 40.9% 17.3% 7.1% 0.0%
Andrea Hlavackova 30.0% 11.4% 4.0% 0.0%
24 Klara Zakopalova 70.0% 41.1% 22.3% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
32 Shuai Peng 57.6% 25.3% 5.2% 0.1%
Elena Vesnina 42.4% 15.8% 2.6% 0.0%
Ekaterina Makarova 80.0% 52.4% 14.9% 0.8%
Eleni Daniilidou 20.0% 6.5% 0.8% 0.0%
Mirjana Lucic 35.6% 3.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 64.4% 8.7% 3.4% 0.0%
Coco Vandeweghe 8.2% 4.1% 1.3% 0.0%
4 Serena Williams 91.8% 84.2% 70.9% 26.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
6 Angelique Kerber 88.6% 65.7% 48.5% 6.0%
Anne Keothavong 11.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.0%
Bethanie Mattek-Sands 30.1% 6.3% 2.4% 0.0%
Venus Williams 69.9% 24.7% 13.9% 0.4%
Johanna Konta 42.7% 10.2% 1.6% 0.0%
Timea Babos 57.3% 16.6% 3.3% 0.0%
Olga Govortsova 18.2% 8.4% 1.4% 0.0%
29 Tamira Paszek 81.8% 64.8% 27.9% 1.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
21 Christina McHale 75.7% 61.4% 41.8% 1.0%
Kiki Bertens 24.3% 14.2% 6.0% 0.0%
Olga Puchkova 39.7% 7.9% 2.4% 0.0%
Irina Falconi 60.3% 16.5% 6.5% 0.0%
Vera Dushevina 68.3% 27.2% 10.4% 0.0%
Nastassja Burnett 31.7% 7.5% 1.7% 0.0%
Garbine Muguruza 36.1% 20.5% 7.9% 0.0%
10 Sara Errani 63.9% 44.9% 23.3% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
13 Dominika Cibulkova 73.9% 54.9% 35.7% 1.3%
Johanna Larsson 26.1% 13.2% 5.2% 0.0%
Bojana Jovanovski 44.2% 13.1% 4.8% 0.0%
Mona Barthel 55.8% 18.8% 8.0% 0.0%
Vania King 54.1% 25.1% 11.3% 0.1%
Yaroslava Shvedova 45.9% 19.7% 8.2% 0.0%
Urszula Radwanska 45.1% 23.7% 10.9% 0.1%
20 Roberta Vinci 54.9% 31.5% 15.9% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
30 Jelena Jankovic 60.9% 40.0% 14.4% 0.2%
Kateryna Bondarenko 39.1% 21.7% 6.0% 0.0%
Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino 25.7% 5.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Shahar Peer 74.3% 32.6% 9.1% 0.0%
Ksenia Pervak 47.1% 10.4% 4.7% 0.0%
Carla Suarez Navarro 52.9% 12.6% 6.1% 0.0%
Nina Bratchikova 11.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.0%
2 Agnieszka Radwanska 88.7% 72.7% 57.6% 6.7%
Jeff – not to add to your workload, but is there any way of creating and posting a sortable list by different variables? I’m imagining some kind of WordPress plugin for sorting tables using Java and/or Ajax that maybe somebody already built, ha ha.
What I’m wanting to be able to do is sort by the last column, W, so I can see at a glance where the top 10 fall. I guess I could do this easily enough if I just copied and pasted into Excel – often a pain, but usually doable – or if I took the time to cook up a simple Python script to handle the paste-as-text instead of Excel. Unfortunately, since I don’t script much any more, and Python syntax has moved on in some odd ways since I used to use it regularly, “cooking up a simple Python script” would take a bunch of hours. Sigh – oh well, just a wish but not important. Thanks for the forecasts.
That would be nice. It’s on my list to develop an easier way to make sortable tables (like the player pages on tennisabstract) on the fly, but my list is long…
A plugin called “CSV to SortTable”:
http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/csv-to-sorttable/
If I can find time to get it to work on my own blog (on a test page), shall I let you know, just so you can try it out later if you find time also? I’m curious myself. If it’s easy & actually works . . . as opposed to blowing up, mangling data, etc.
Nice find. Please do keep me posted.