Italian translation at settesei.it
Men’s tennis is getting older, and the drift toward middle age is evident at Wimbledon this week.
Of the 128 men in the main draw, 34 are at least 30 years old, while only two are in their teens. This is just the latest step in a trend that has been evident for at least a decade.
The 34 30-somethings are not just a modern-day record–the number blows recent years out of the water. Last year’s main draw had 24 30-somethings, and that was the highest such total since 1979. Teenagers have been on the wane for years–there have only been two in the main draw in each of the last four years, but as recently as 2001, there were eight. In several years in the late 80s and early 90s, there were more teenagers than 30-year-olds.
Whatever the explanation for this–and there are many possible ones–it’s clear that something is going on. It takes longer than it ever has for a young rising star to establish himself on tour, and top players are able to stay healthy and competitive for as long as ever before.
After the jump, find a table with more detailed results.
The table shows several stats for each year’s Wimbledon main draw: average age of the competitors, number of 30-somethings, and number of teens. “DOBs” indicates those years where I don’t have birthdate for all entrants; it isn’t really a factor except pre-1980.
YEAR DOBs AVG 30s TEENS 2012 128 27.3 34 2 2011 128 26.9 24 2 2010 128 26.5 20 2 2009 128 26.5 19 2 2008 128 25.9 18 5 2007 128 26.2 19 7 2006 128 26.0 17 4 2005 128 25.8 23 8 2004 128 25.7 20 4 2003 128 25.4 14 5 2002 128 25.5 15 4 2001 128 25.6 18 8 2000 128 25.6 13 6 YEAR DOBs AVG 30s TEENS 1999 128 25.5 12 3 1998 128 25.3 10 2 1997 128 25.2 9 5 1996 128 25.4 15 5 1995 128 25.3 13 5 1994 128 25.0 6 6 1993 128 24.9 11 5 1992 128 24.9 9 5 1991 128 24.9 9 7 1990 127 24.8 11 15 YEAR DOBs AVG 30s TEENS 1989 128 24.6 9 13 1988 128 24.2 8 9 1987 128 24.6 8 10 1986 128 24.9 16 7 1985 126 25.4 16 6 1984 126 25.3 16 12 1983 126 25.1 14 11 1982 127 25.6 18 8 1981 125 26.0 19 10 1980 127 26.3 23 5 YEAR DOBs AVG 30s TEENS 1979 124 26.4 26 7 1978 123 26.8 31 6 1977 124 26.4 27 6 1976 124 26.6 28 3 1975 122 26.7 26 5 1974 124 26.5 30 7 1973 95 25.3 16 15 1972 116 26.6 27 7 1971 122 26.8 27 8 1970 115 26.2 20 9 1969 116 27.0 28 6 1968 114 26.8 29 4
Jeff – Many thanks for gathering this together (note: this took Jeff less than an hour to post from inception of the idea at my request – this is amazing responsiveness, unique in sports stats as far as I know).
In response to my question about what we frequently hear – of there being some age (usually said to be 26) at which players peak before their decline starts – I think you accurately framed the issue as being two part:
– declining skills vs declining health
I’m sure others will be as interested as I am in anything you can develop from data that sheds further light on whether players are now more able to postpone the age at which health declines. There are factors arguing both for and against that being logical today.
But as you point out, skills probably keep improving even after health and fitness decline.
I think FEDERER is a great case in point:
– in 2009, at 26, he had some back issues and we began to see him shank a lot balls in matches; it appeared he had lost a step and some control with it, and his results began to be a little more human (some losses to low ranked players, and a lesser ability to take the big matches in 5 set formats)
– in 2010, after more than a year of questions and doubts about his fitness and his mentality, he began to play consistent tennis again, and has continued since then; however, though he stabilized his back issues and never regained his previous foot speed for horizontal movement (at least on hard courts), his racquet skills and tactics adapted to allow him to be more effective than ever at ending points quickly with better serving, forward movement and defensive racquet skills. The first two of these improvements have been documented by statistics for his percentage of serving points won (1st and 2nd serves), total service games won, and the frequency and efficiency of points won from the net.
Thanks, Jeff, for being such a great resource.
Rick Devereux
This is first time I have visited this site, and must say it is of high quality and appreciate it very much.
Now I would like to say my opinion about the age of high quality tennis professionals.
On one it is obvious that tennis has developed enourmously so it takes more and more years of hard quality work to become part of elite.On the other hand all the other supportive elements (physical conditioning, sport medecine, recovery technique, nutrtion etc.)have develop to such level to enable top players to stay healthy and major injury free for long time.
Here I would like to mention two prerequisites for someone to be able to play high level tennis after 30iest.
One is to be able as fast as younger players (if one does not reach a ball on time, tennis technique/tactics does not matter much) and ,
two:all the players who are successful at this age have had sound base to build upon otherwise would not be able to keep up with development of sport.