Also today: Jannik Sinner’s near-unbreakability
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Coco Gauff is not a pusher, but she can do an awfully good impression of one. In yesterday’s Australian Open quarter-final against Marta Kostyuk, the American coughed up 50 unforced errors against just 17 winners. The average rally lasted 4.6 strokes, a modest number that was rescued from marathon territory only by Gauff’s many unreturned serves.
Coco’s forehand, the usual culprit when things get messy, was on full display yesterday. While the stroke has shown signs of improvement–only 9% of them contributed to the unforced error tally, below both tour average and Gauff’s own standard–it remains loopy, and it gets ever-more cautious under pressure. Kostyuk was willing to go after the high-bouncing mid-court groundstrokes, often putting Gauff on the run. Fortunately for the American, her defense rarely deserts her. She eked out a three-hour, 7-6, 6-7, 6-2 victory for a place in the Melbourne semi-finals.
My impression watching the match was that Gauff put an unreasonable number of returns–especially forehand returns–in the middle of the court, not too deep, and that Kostyuk was punishing them. I was partly right: The Ukrainian forced Coco to hit forehand after forehand against the serve, more than two-thirds of her service returns all told. Gauff did indeed send more of those balls down the middle, closer to the service line than the baseline. And Kostyuk attacked… but to little avail.
Let’s get into the numbers. The Match Charting Project divides the court into thirds, both in terms of direction (forehand side, backhand side, and middle) and depth (shallow [in the service boxes], deep [closer to the service line than the baseline], and very deep). All else equal, shots deep and/or to the sides of the court are better, though of course they are riskier. Some returns will inevitably end up down the middle and shallow; the goal is only to avoid it when possible.
Here is how Gauff’s performance yesterday compared to tour average and her own typical rate of service returns that went down the middle and didn’t land close to the baseline:
RETURNS Middle/Not Very Deep Tour Average 34.0% Coco Average 40.5% Coco vs Kostyuk 43.7%
Indifferent return placement is nothing new for the American, and she left even more hittable plus-ones for Kostyuk than usual. It wasn’t as bad as last year’s US Open final against Aryna Sabalenka, when Gauff put more than half of her returns in the less effective zones, but Kostyuk is no Sabalenka when it comes to imposing her will with the serve.
Return placement matters. On average, tour players win 46% of points when they land a down-the-middle, not very deep return. When they put the ball anywhere else–closer to the baseline or a sideline–they win 56%. Gauff is a little better behind the weak returns, but for her career, the gap is still present: 47% versus 55%.
Except… that isn’t what happened yesterday!
RETURN OUTCOMES Mid/NVP W% Better W% Tour Average 46.2% 56.3% Coco Average 46.9% 54.8% Coco vs Kostyuk 60.0% 55.2%
When Gauff placed a return near a line, her results yesterday were typical. But Kostyuk was unable to capitalize on the rest. Among 88 matches logged by the Match Charting Project, Gauff has won 60% of those middle/not-very-deep returns only a dozen times, usually in blowouts.
Judging from the American’s performance on return, she could have made quick work of yesterday’s contest, too. The sticking point came on her own side of the ball, where her non-committal forehands didn’t work out as well.
Minus-ones
On the WTA tour, when the return lands in play, the server has nearly lost her advantage. A good first serve can give her a lingering edge, or a well-placed return can tilt the balance in the other direction, but overall, the point begins again as a neutral proposition. Servers win 52% of those points.
Gauff, on average, does a little better, converting her serve 53% of the time. There are signs she’s improving, as well. In the US Open final against Sabalenka, she won 55%, and in the Auckland final this month versus Elina Svitolina, she picked up 59%. Apart from lopsided matches, the high-50s are the best anyone can do on an ongoing basis: Iga Swiatek’s average is 57%, and Sabalenka’s is 55%.
Coco won 39% against Kostyuk.
Gauff’s lack of confidence in her forehand showed up in multiple ways. First, she didn’t use it as much as a plus-one weapon. She usually hits 57% of her plus-one shots from the forehand side, in line with tour average. Yesterday, that rate was just 51%, something that had more to do with her own choices than any return magic that Kostyuk conjured up.
Then, she didn’t do much with those forehands. The following table shows plus-one forehand rates (3F%), the percentage of plus-one forehands hit down the middle (FH Mid%), and the server’s winning percentage (FH Mid W%) behind those down-the-middle forehands:
PLUS-ONES 3F% FH Mid% FH Mid W% Tour Average 56.6% 29.9% 45.9% Coco Average 57.2% 35.0% 47.0% Coco vs Kostyuk 50.7% 39.5% 40.0%
Gauff magnified her own tendency to go back down the middle with her second-shot forehand. It didn’t work, as she won just 40% of those points, compared to her typical rate of 47%.
Even beyond the plus-one, Coco just kept pushing the forehand. She went down the middle with 46% of her forehands, compared with her usual 37% and the tour average of 28%. She won barely one-third of the points when she did so, partly because of the nine unforced errors she racked up playing an already conservative shot. Two of those missed down-the-middle forehands came on back-to-back points when she could hardly afford them, taking her from 15-all to 15-40 when trying to close out the match at 5-3 in the second set.
In the end, as we’ve seen, Gauff’s defense saved her. She won more than half of Kostyuk’s serve points despite lackluster returning. Had she served just a little better–she missed six straight first serves in that 5-3 game–she would have finished the job an hour sooner. Had she attacked a bit more effectively with her second shots, even the off-day from the line wouldn’t have amounted to much.
To state the obvious: She’ll have to play better to beat Sabalenka in tomorrow’s semi-finals. One thing, at least, will work in Coco’s favor: She’ll have many fewer choices to make. The defending champion will dictate play and give her less time to think than Kostyuk did. Gauff withstood the Belarusian barrage in New York, winning the US Open title despite a couple of detours against less aggressive players in the early rounds. The American can’t play tomorrow like she did yesterday, but thankfully, Sabalenka won’t let her.
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Jannik Sinner’s near-unbreakability
Jannik Sinner has lost his serve just twice en route to the Australian Open semi-finals. He has faced 28 break points and saved 26 of them.
Since 1991, when the ATP started keeping the relevant stats, he is the 26th player to reach the final four at a major with so few breaks of his own serve:
Tournament Semi-finalist BP Faced Broken 2013 USO Rafael Nadal 6 0 2018 Wimb John Isner 7 0 2015 Wimb Roger Federer 3 1 1994 Wimb Pete Sampras 9 1 2015 AO Novak Djokovic 11 1 2014 Wimb Roger Federer 12 1 1997 Wimb Pete Sampras 12 1 2010 USO Rafael Nadal 14 1 2012 RG Rafael Nadal 17 1 2004 Wimb Roger Federer 17 1 Tournament Semi-finalist BP Faced Broken 2014 Wimb Milos Raonic 9 2 2011 RG Novak Djokovic* 9 2 2007 USO Roger Federer 9 2 2006 Wimb Roger Federer 9 2 2006 Wimb Rafael Nadal 9 2 2015 USO Roger Federer 11 2 2014 AO Roger Federer 11 2 1997 USO Greg Rusedski 11 2 1993 AO Pete Sampras** 12 2 2013 Wimb JM del Potro 13 2 2019 AO Rafael Nadal 15 2 2008 Wimb Roger Federer 15 2 2005 AO Andy Roddick 15 2 1998 Wimb Pete Sampras 17 2 2000 AO Yevgeny Kafelnikov 22 2 2024 AO Jannik Sinner 28 2 * Djokovic won one round by W/O and another by retirement ** I don't have stats for Sampras's QF, but the final score suggests that he wasn't broken
Pretty good company! As the table makes clear, though, Sinner’s 28 break points faced is not so elite. In fact, the average major semi-finalist faces exactly 28 break points in his first five matches.
The Italian’s accomplishment, then, is saving so many. 26 of 28 is a 93% clip, and that is more rarefied air:
Tounament Player Faced Saved Save% 2013 USO Nadal 6 6 100.0% 2018 Wimb Isner 7 7 100.0% 2012 RG Nadal 17 16 94.1% 2004 Wimb Federer 17 16 94.1% 2010 USO Nadal 14 13 92.9% 2024 AO Sinner 28 26 92.9% 2014 Wimb Federer 12 11 91.7% 1997 Wimb Sampras 12 11 91.7% 2015 AO Djokovic 11 10 90.9% 2000 AO Kafelnikov 22 20 90.9%
Things will get tougher on Friday, when Sinner faces all-time-great returner Novak Djokovic for a place in the final. Then again, Djokovic failed to convert his first 15 break points against Taylor Fritz yesterday–maybe he was just preparing for the matchup with Sinner.
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