Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Sabalenka serves faster than many men, Denis Shapovalov steps up his return game, and Jule Niemeier is the hottest player you’re not watching this week.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 37, the number of men in the singles main draw at Wimbledon whose average second serve was slower than Aryna Sabalenka’s. In her first five matches, Sabalenka’s average second serve has clocked in at 153 kilometers per hour, or 95 miles per hour. Neither Novak Djokovic nor Hubert Hurkacz—among many others—hit their second serves as fast. Remarkably, the Belarussian doesn’t even rank first among women–both Camila Giorgi and Liudmila Samsonova averaged a bit faster. Even in the first serve department, Sabalenka out-hits many of the men. Her average delivery registers at 177 kilometers per hour, or 110 miles per hour, second on the women’s list behind Elena Rybakina. That’s only two miles per hour behind Roger Federer’s typical first serve, and faster than Cam Norrie’s average. Velocity isn’t everything, but it has gotten Sabalenka to the final four, and of the men’s and women’s semi-finals, it’s today’s clash between Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova that is most likely to have fans oohing and aahing at the radar gun.
Our second number is 41%, Denis Shapovalov’s rate of return points won through five rounds at Wimbledon. The 10th-seeded Shapovalov is into his first grand slam semi-final, where he’ll face Novak Djokovic tomorrow. The flashy Canadian has gotten so far by performing well in what has long been the weakest part of his game. In his career at tour level, Shapovalov has won 35% of return points, an adequate fraction for a big server who is content with a top-20 ranking. In limited action on grass, he’s managed a meager 32.5% off his opponents’ serves. Except for a 33% mark against Philipp Kohlschreiber in the first round, the left-hander has been far better at Wimbledon. He won nearly half of return points against Andy Murray, and then exceeded the 50% mark against Roberto Bautista Agut. Facing big-serving Karen Khachanov yesterday, he won 40% of return points and broke the Russian five times. In six previous meetings with Djokovic, he’s won only 26% on return. To dethrone the world number one, he’ll need to display every bit of the defensive improvement that got him to the final four.
Today’s third and final number is 23, Jule Niemeier’s win total in the last three months, against only six losses. Niemeier is a 21-year-old German who was ranked just outside the top 300 when the tour restarted last summer, and she’s suddenly playing like she belongs among tour regulars. After qualifying and winning an ITF $25K in Prague in May, she qualified and reached the semi-final at the WTA event in Strasbourg. She narrowly lost to Barbora Krejcikova there, and in Krejcikova’s 12-match winning streak at Strasbourg and Roland Garros, Niemeier was the opponent who came closest to beating her. Since then, she qualified at the grass-court event in Berlin, taking a set from eventual finalist Belinda Bencic, and reached the final round of Wimbledon qualifying, where it took a 9-7 deciding set to send her home. She’s back on clay this week in Hamburg, where she upset Caroline Garcia yesterday. Compared to the big names she’s challenged lately, today’s assignment against fellow wild card Tamara Korpatsch sounds like a walk in the park. German fans following Angelique Kerber’s exploits at Wimbledon should keep one eye on the rising star at their lower-profile home tournament this week.
