Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Djokovic posts his best-ever ace mark at Wimbledon, Veronika Kudermetova bows out early of another major, and Dominik Koepfer is a savant when it comes to breaking monster serves.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 25, Novak Djokovic’s ace total in yesterday’s first-round match against Jack Draper. In 82 previous matches at Wimbledon, Djokovic had never hit so many, nor had his serves been unreturned at such a high rate. The world number one’s previous tournament best was 23 aces against Rafael Nadal in their memorable 2018 semi-final. That match took over five hours, and the bombs represented only 13% of his first serves. While yesterday’s four-setter was more complicated than expected, Novak still wrapped it up in two hours, and his 25 aces made up 31% of his serve points. In more than a thousand tour-level matches, Djokovic has managed an ace rate above 31% only once, in the 2012 London Olympics against Andy Roddick. The raw tally is also his second-highest, behind the 26 aces he slid past Frances Tiafoe at this year’s Australian Open. Awaiting Novak in the second round is a rematch of the 2018 final with Kevin Anderson. Fans of unreturned serves should mark their calendars.
Our second number is 10, Veronika Kudermetova’s number of appearances in grand slam main draws. Kudermetova is 32nd on the WTA computer, and she entered Wimbledon as the highest-ranked player yet to reach the fourth round of a major. After a loss yesterday to Viktorija Golubic, Kudermetova will likely have the same status heading into the US Open as well. The 24-year-old Russian has steadily climbed the rankings since the restart, claiming two titles and scoring four top-ten wins in the last year. But she’s developing a habit of losing nail-biters on the biggest stages. After the Roland Garros draw opened up for her last month—so much so that I headlined an episode of Expected Points with her opportunity—she lost a three-hour match to Katerina Siniakova. At the All England Club yesterday, she played almost as long, finally falling to Golubic 11-9 in the deciding set. Some young players struggle under the weight of high expectations, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Kudermetova at the next few grand slams.
Today’s third and final number is 64%, Dominik Koepfer’s rate of break points converted against Reilly Opelka in tour-level matches. Koepfer is stands only 5-foot-11, so Opelka, who is nearly one foot taller, occasionally sends serves bouncing above his head. But Opelka’s stature, not to mention his typically dominant serving, isn’t enough to withstand Koepfer at key moments. The two men have played three ATP matches, and the German lefty has won all eight sets. In each meeting, Koepfer has broken serve three times, never needing more than six chances. Yesterday, he won all three break points he generated—a particularly notable feat against a man who saves two thirds of the chances he faces. Koepfer seems to be fearless against the tallest guys on tour, with two Challenger-level wins against Ivo Karlovic and a straight-set victory in his one encounter with Milos Raonic. Unfortunately for the German, no more tall guys loom in his draw. His likely second-round opponent is Kwon Soon Woo, a man exactly the same height as he is.
