Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Medvedev is the favorite in Mallorca despite sparse grass-court results, Dan Evans is flying beneath the radar, and Karolina Muchova can’t go to Tokyo.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 26.3%, the probability that Daniil Medvedev will win this week’s ATP even in Mallorca. The odds are based on the Tennis Abstract Elo ratings, which give Medvedev a substantial boost simply because he’s so good on hard courts. A rating based purely on grass court results leaves the Russian outside the top 30, in large part because he has played so little on the surface. After losing to Marcus Willis in 2016 Wimbledon qualifying, Medvedev made a splash in the 2017 main draw, upsetting Stan Wawrinka in the first round. Since then, he hasn’t given supporters much reason to hope that he’ll live up to his #2 seed this year. In 2018 and ’19, he lost third-round five-setters to David Goffin and Adrian Mannarino. Today he’ll get a shot against another French lefty, Corentin Moutet, as he attempts to improve on his 18-13 career mark on grass. As inexperienced as he is, one thing working in Medvedev’s favor is that he’s not alone. Moutet has played only nine pro matches on grass, and a potential quarter-final opponent, Casper Ruud, has played only three. And perhaps best of all for the Russian, the unfamiliar surface couldn’t be any less like clay.
Our second number is 68%, Dan Evans’s career winning percentage on grass courts… at Challenger level. At the moment, Evans is out of the spotlight, even as British newspapers hunt for the sparse stories about local favorites at Wimbledon. This year, Cam Norrie is the rising star, after reaching the Queen’s Club final and hitting a career-high ranking of #34. That gets Norrie a Wimbledon seed this year, but it doesn’t get him past Evans, ranked 26th. Evans seems to be on the cusp of a grass-court breakthrough, with one of the best backhand slices in the game and a 12-match Challenger winning streak on the surface that was broken by Denis Kudla in Nottingham this month. But while Norrie fell just short of a tour-level title on turf, Evans has never come close. He has two third-round showings at Wimbledon, and another two quarter-finals at lesser events. This year may be his chance to go further. Evans is not only seeded, but he has a position inside the top 24, ensuring that he won’t face a top-8 player until at least the fourth round. For the first time in memory, the Brits’ best hope at Wimbledon might be the man they aren’t watching.
Today’s third and final number is 22, the WTA ranking of Karolina Muchova. Muchova’s rise to the top 25 is an impressive achievement for someone who finished 2018 ranked 144th, but it isn’t good enough to get her into the draw at the Tokyo Olympics. The Czech Republic is one of the strongest women’s tennis nations, and each country is only allowed four singles competitors. Muchova is the 4th ranked Czech, behind Petra Kvitova, Karolina Pliskova, and French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova. But due to the ITF’s protected ranking rule and its adjustment for time lost due to the pandemic last year, 41st-ranked Marketa Vondrousova has dibs on the final spot. Neither woman had a particularly good chance at a medal in Tokyo, but Muchova is the better hard-court player, so it’s a net loss for the Czech team. At least the national federation can take heart that everyone wants to play—by contrast, the men’s tennis powerhouse of Spain has so many players opting out that it won’t even send the full complement of four singles competitors.
