Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Aryna Sabalenka maintains her perfect record after losing a first-set bagel, Kristina Kucova takes not converting match point to a new level, and one of the best matchups in women’s tennis will be part of the Miami third round.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 3, the number of times that Aryna Sabalenka has lost the first set of a tour level match by a score of 6-0. All three times, she has come back to win. The most recent momentum shift came yesterday in Miami, when Tsvetana Pironkova raced out to a lead, only to drop the second set 6-3 and find herself in a protracted third-set tiebreak. Sabalenka saved two match points and needed four of her own before putting a lid on it, 11-9 in the breaker. At least Pironkova wasn’t subjected to the reversal of fortunes that beset Sara Sorribes Tormo in Ostrava last October. The Spaniard won ten games in a row before Sabalenka woke up and reeled off 12 of her own. The Belarussian is hardly a wizard of deciders, with a modest 9-8 three-set record since the restart last August. But something about a first-set bagel seems to belatedly remind Sabalenka that she’s one of the best players in the world.
Our second number is 64 miles per hour, the speed of Kristina Kucova’s first serve at match point yesterday. For two hours, the Slovakian qualifier played well enough to keep things even with top seed Ashleigh Barty, splitting the first two sets and even taking a 5-2 lead in the third. At the crucial moment, her 64 mile per hour offering observed the legal speed limit, but it failed to clear the net. She went from 40-30 to getting broken, watched Barty hold with ease, then got broken again. After putting up a valiant fight and earning three break points with the Australian serving for the match, she once again couldn’t convert the big ones and lost the final set 7-5. It’s not the first time Kucova has lost a tight match against a top player—she’s 3-13 against the top 20 in her career, including four three-set losses. Ironically, one of her few wins was over Jelena Ostapenko, who would’ve been her next opponent had she completed the upset today. Instead, it’s the top seed who gets to face the Latvian, the second-straight erratic server that the draw gods have placed in Barty’s path.
Today’s third and final number is 9, the number of career meetings between Victoria Azarenka and Angelique Kerber. Saturday will make it 10, as the two former number ones converged in the Miami draw with as little fuss as possible. Azarenka advanced via walkover, and Kerber double-bageled Mexican qualifier Renata Zarazua. Vika leads the head-to-head 8-1, but the won-loss record leaves out the juicy details. One of those wins was among the best matches of the 2010s, a group-stage clash at the 2012 Tour Championships that lasted over three hours, in which Azarenka saved two match points. They’ve only met once since 2016, but the contrast of styles hasn’t changed since then, with Angie’s anticipation-based lefty game staring down Vika’s pure power. Both players are north of 30 and fighting to stay relevant among a crowded younger field, so the stakes in Miami are high. The winner of their 10th career meeting earns a place in the fourth round and a likely date with world number one and defending champion Ashleigh Barty.
