Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
On today’s episode: Collins ousts top-seed Ashleigh Barty down under, another teenager makes his presence known on the ATP tour, and Miami announces the pay cut awaiting their champions.
Scroll down for a transcript.
Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 6. That’s how many top ten upsets Danielle Collins has recorded in her career thus far. The latest scalp for the 27-year-old American was Ashleigh Barty, who she upended in straight sets today in Adelaide. When Collins is on, she’s on: All six of her top-ten wins have been straight-setters, including a 6-0 6-2 drubbing of Angelique Kerber two years ago in Melbourne, and a 6-1 6-1 sail past Belinda Bencic to start the 2020 season in Brisbane. You might be noticing another pattern: Five of her six big upsets—as well as her only grand slam semi-final–have come in Australia, while she is only 1-8 against the top ten in the northern hemisphere. Collins is only the tip of the arrow for American tennis in Adelaide this week: both Coco Gauff and Shelby Rogers also knocked out seeds en route to the quarterfinals. Collins will have another challenge on her hands, facing Iga Swiatek in tomorrow’s quarters, while Gauff and Rogers draw each other, guaranteeing the USA a place in the semis.
Our second number is 335, the ATP ranking of 19-year-old Juan Manuel Cerundolo, an Argentine who won his first tour-level match last night. It is only his 8th career main-draw victory above the Futures level, but his place in the Cordoba event is no undeserved home-town wild card. He earned his spot with three wins in qualifying, and backed it up with the straight set win in the first round against Brazilian #119 Thiago Seyboth Wild. 19 years old is younger than it used to be in men’s tennis: at 335 in the world, Cerundolo is the 8th-highest ranked teenager in the world, and his run this week will move him up at least one or two more spots on that list. There’s a lot of space separating the Argentine from the best teenager in men’s tennis, however. Jannik Sinner is only three months older, already ranked 34th in the world, and according to Tennis Abstract Elo ratings, the favorite to win this week’s tour-level event in Montpellier. Cerundolo will start to get a feel for what it takes to play at that level tomorrow, when he takes on Miomir Kecmanovic, a Serbian 21-year-old ranked just a few places behind Sinner.
Today’s third and final number is 78%. 78% is the prize money cut for men’s and women’s champions at the Miami Open next month. In 2019, winners received over $1.3 million apiece, compared to $300,000 this year. The tournament wasn’t held in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, and it is pandemic-related restrictions that account for the pay cut. 78% is roughly equivalent to the cut in spectator numbers, which will be held to about 20% of normal across the grounds, and 15% on the main court. Like other high-profile tournaments since the tours restarted, Miami has dealt with their limited financial capacity by altering not just the amount of prize money but its distribution. First-round losers take a hit as well, but only about 40%, from about $16,000 in 2019 to $10,000 this year. As tournaments around the world announce their plans to move forward in 2021 with limited or no spectators, players can expect a steady stream of announcements like this one.