Watch out, ladies, this site isn’t just for the ATP anymore.
It was a bit of a struggle, but I was able to assemble a ranking and results database for women’s tennis (both WTA and ITF) going back several years. That allowed me to apply my ranking algorithm to WTA players. This is still a work in progress–I’ve had to borrow a few assumptions from my ATP research–but I think the results generally make a lot of sense.
For newcomers, here are a few of the key differences between my rankings and the official WTA rankings:
- My system considers matches going back two years–not just one. Incidentally, this helps us better evaluate the Williams sisters, just as it helps us with Juan Martin del Potro in the ATP numbers.
- The more recent the tournament, the more it counts in the rankings.
- Points are based almost entirely on the quality of opponents, not on the level of the event. If you beat Vera Zvonereva, it’s worth the same number of points whether it’s at Indian Wells or in Brussels. (There is a slight boost for grand slams, on the assumption that players plan their seasons to peak at the slams.)
- Surface is considered. For these hard/grass-court rankings, hard-court results are weighted more heavily than clay-court results. For instance, Francesca Schiavone is #26 here, but #10 in the clay-court rankings.
Here is the HeavyTopspin.com WTA hard-court top 100:
RANK PLAYER POINTS 1 Kim Clijsters 9286 2 Caroline Wozniacki 7888 3 Victoria Azarenka 7040 4 Vera Zvonareva 6222 5 Na Li 5167 6 Serena Williams 5142 7 Petra Kvitova 4854 8 Maria Sharapova 4596 9 Svetlana Kuznetsova 3607 10 Venus Williams 3551 RANK PLAYER POINTS 11 Andrea Petkovic 3514 12 Shuai Peng 3498 13 Marion Bartoli 3332 14 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 3268 15 Agnieszka Radwanska 3207 16 Samantha Stosur 3137 17 Ana Ivanovic 3129 18 Flavia Pennetta 3074 19 Alisa Kleybanova 3005 20 Dominika Cibulkova 2931 RANK PLAYER POINTS 21 Jelena Jankovic 2693 22 Daniela Hantuchova 2505 23 Yanina Wickmayer 2452 24 Shahar Peer 2318 25 Kaia Kanepi 2252 26 Francesca Schiavone 2229 27 Ekaterina Makarova 2010 28 Sabine Lisicki 1997 29 Julia Goerges 1970 30 Maria Kirilenko 1961 RANK PLAYER POINTS 31 Lucie Safarova 1913 32 Elena Vesnina 1912 33 Gisela Dulko 1835 34 Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 1764 35 Nadia Petrova 1717 36 Virginie Razzano 1673 37 Dinara Safina 1626 38 Jie Zheng 1619 39 Anastasija Sevastova 1484 40 Klara Zakopalova 1450 RANK PLAYER POINTS 41 Aravane Rezai 1420 42 Kateryna Bondarenko 1370 43 Bethanie Mattek-Sands 1345 44 Roberta Vinci 1320 45 Anna Chakvetadze 1294 46 Alona Bondarenko 1277 47 Jarmila Gajdosova 1263 48 Melanie Oudin 1247 49 Vera Dushevina 1168 50 Iveta Benesova 1166 RANK PLAYER POINTS 51 Alize Cornet 1157 52 Sara Errani 1102 53 Magdalena Rybarikova 1048 54 Timea Bacsinszky 1038 55 Agnes Szavay 991 56 Tsvetana Pironkova 986 57 Barbora Zahlavova Strycova 953 58 Bojana Jovanovski 952 59 Kimiko Date-Krumm 917 60 Alexandra Dulgheru 905 RANK PLAYER POINTS 61 Greta Arn 891 62 Simona Halep 889 63 Tamira Paszek 868 64 Vania King 856 65 Polona Hercog 848 66 Angelique Kerber 820 67 Jelena Dokic 818 68 Christina McHale 800 69 Elena Baltacha 784 70 Sorana Cirstea 771 RANK PLAYER POINTS 71 Carla Suarez Navarro 751 72 Yaroslava Shvedova 749 73 Kirsten Flipkens 741 74 Lucie Hradecka 738 75 Sybille Bammer 737 76 Aleksandra Wozniak 728 77 Johanna Larsson 722 78 Alla Kudryavtseva 716 79 Regina Kulikova 693 80 Monica Niculescu 677 RANK PLAYER POINTS 81 Petra Martic 671 82 Kristina Barrois 656 83 Ayumi Morita 654 84 Urszula Radwanska 638 85 Olga Govortsova 635 86 Sofia Arvidsson 630 87 Coco Vandeweghe 602 88 Anastasiya Yakimova 592 89 Anabel Medina Garrigues 590 90 Kai-Chen Chang 570 RANK PLAYER POINTS 91 Eleni Daniilidou 566 92 Rebecca Marino 564 93 Anastasia Rodionova 560 94 Melinda Czink 550 95 Arantxa Rus 535 96 Ksenia Pervak 527 97 Michaella Krajicek 522 98 Vesna Dolonts 512 99 Tamarine Tanasugarn 508 100 Alison Riske 501
Wow, that’s quite an achievement! My (infrequent and casual) observations suggest that, in a match between any two women, the result is a toss-up. Once the first set is over, you can assume that whoever lost it has a slight edge.
Thanks. Definitely seems like the women’s game is more unpredictable. Seems like so many examples where someone has a great run for a few months and then suddenly can’t beat anyone in the top 20.