Three-quarters of the field has been eliminated, and we’re left with 32 men standing. Who’s left: 6 of the top 8, 13 of the top 16, and 21 of the top 32. All the wild cards and lucky losers are out (though Marsel Ilhan went down fighting!) but of the 11 unseeded players still in the draw, an amazing six are qualifiers.
In the odds below, you might notice an interesting twist. Suddenly, Nadal is the favorite! As Juan Martin del Potro has taken care of business and ensured a third-round clash with Novak Djokovic, Djokovic’s chances of reaching each successive round have decreased. But the men in Nadal’s section have done him favors–especially qualifier Antonio Veic, who knocked out Nikolay Davydenko today. The Russian is always a threat, but I don’t think we can say the same about Veic.
Nadal’s chances are up to 26.9%, while Djokovic’s have fallen to 25.8%. Of course, both of those numbers are far beyond anyone else in the field. On the other end, qualifiers Veic and Steve Darcis have the smallest chances of winning the title–they each won it all only once per 50,000 simulations. The qualifier with the best chance is Lukasz Kubot, who is about 15 times more likely than Darcis to take home his first grand slam championship.
Player R16 QF SF W
(1)Rafael Nadal 95.4% 78.9% 59.0% … 26.9%
(q)Antonio Veic 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% … 0.0%
Ivan Ljubicic 40.6% 7.4% 2.6% … 0.2%
(16)Fernando Verdasco 59.4% 12.8% 5.8% … 0.9%
(10)Mardy Fish 54.4% 21.1% 5.3% … 0.7%
(18)Giles Simon 45.6% 16.1% 3.9% … 0.4%
(q)Leonardo Mayer 14.6% 4.1% 0.5% … 0.0%
(5)Robin Soderling 85.4% 58.7% 22.8% … 5.8%
Player R16 QF SF W
(4)Andy Murray 88.7% 68.7% 60.9% … 10.6%
Michael Berrer 11.3% 3.4% 1.7% … 0.0%
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 44.2% 11.6% 7.9% … 0.2%
(15)Viktor Troicki 55.9% 16.4% 11.8% … 0.5%
(q)Lukasz Kubot 51.0% 22.5% 3.6% … 0.0%
(q)Alejandro Falla 49.0% 22.0% 3.5% … 0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela 60.9% 36.4% 7.6% … 0.1%
(q)Lukas Rosol 39.1% 19.2% 3.0% … 0.0%
Player R16 QF SF W
(7)David Ferrer 81.0% 49.2% 22.2% … 3.0%
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky 19.0% 5.9% 1.0% … 0.0%
(q)Steve Darcis 14.6% 2.3% 0.2% … 0.0%
(9)Gael Monfils 85.4% 42.7% 17.1% … 1.6%
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 50.2% 16.0% 7.1% … 0.6%
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 49.8% 16.0% 7.1% … 0.6%
(29)Janko Tipsarevic 18.0% 7.0% 2.5% … 0.1%
(3)Roger Federer 82.0% 61.0% 42.7% … 10.6%
Player R16 QF SF W
Fabio Fognini 36.6% 13.2% 1.3% … 0.0%
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 63.4% 33.1% 4.8% … 0.3%
Albert Montanes 43.1% 22.3% 2.7% … 0.1%
(12)Mikhail Youzhny 56.9% 31.4% 5.4% … 0.3%
(13)Richard Gasquet 63.6% 13.3% 9.4% … 1.5%
(23)Thomaz Bellucci 36.4% 4.9% 2.9% … 0.2%
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro 35.2% 26.9% 23.3% … 8.7%
(2)Novak Djokovic 64.8% 54.9% 50.2% … 25.8%