The qualifying rounds are over, and the draw is set. I plugged the full 128-man bracket into my simulator, combined it with my most recent clay-specific rankings, and the full results are below.
A few quick hits on the draw and the simulation results:
- All of the top three players have challenging draws. Nadal faces Isner in the first, then possibly Davydenko in the third, Verdasco in the 4th, and Soderling in the quarters. Federer drew Feliciano Lopez in the first. And Djokovic got the worst possible outcome: Del Potro in the third. There probably isn’t an upset there, but if anybody’s going to take Novak out before the final, Delpo’s my bet.
- There are eight Americans in the draw. The odds that a US player–any US player–wins the tourney is 0.83%. The odds that all eight are knocked out in the first round? 0.85%. Only Fish and Sweeting are favorites in their opening matches.
- On the country-by-country theme, France has 20 men in the main draw, with a likelihood of just under 4% that a Frenchmen will win the title. Spain has 14, for a total title shot of 26.4% — just below Djokovic’s chances by himself.
- Some tight matchups in the first round: Fognini/Istomin, Hewitt/Montanes, Brands/Kukushkin, Paire/Hanescu (home court advantage flips that in Paire’s favor), Teixeira/Millot (two wild cards), Tomic/Berlocq, Gimeno-Traver/Haase, and Tursunov/Malisse.
- The most lopsided first-rounder–according to the numbers–is Djokovic vs. de Bakker, followed by Andy Murray vs. Eric Prodon, the only two where my system gives the favorite a 90% chance of advancing. There are plenty in the high 80’s, as well.
Here are the full simulation results:
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(1)Rafael Nadal 87.5% 81.4% 67.3% … 21.30%
John Isner 12.5% 8.3% 4.2% … 0.05%
Santiago Giraldo 60.4% 6.9% 2.6% … 0.01%
Pablo Andujar 39.6% 3.5% 1.0% … 0.00%
Pablo Cuevas 67.0% 25.0% 4.0% … 0.02%
(q)Antonio Veic 33.0% 7.8% 0.7% … 0.00%
(q)Denis Gremelmayr 14.6% 4.8% 0.4% … 0.00%
(28)Nikolay Davydenko 85.4% 62.3% 19.8% … 0.72%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(24)Sam Querrey 42.6% 20.5% 9.1% … 0.04%
Philipp Kohlschreiber 57.4% 31.2% 15.7% … 0.13%
Ivan Ljubicic 72.0% 39.5% 20.6% … 0.20%
Somdev Devvarman 28.0% 8.8% 2.8% … 0.00%
Dmitry Tursunov 44.9% 12.1% 4.1% … 0.00%
Xavier Malisse 55.1% 16.4% 5.9% … 0.01%
Juan Monaco 34.7% 21.0% 9.7% … 0.04%
(16)Fernando Verdasco 65.3% 50.4% 32.1% … 0.77%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(10)Mardy Fish 82.3% 59.3% 36.6% … 0.70%
Ricardo Mello 17.7% 6.5% 1.7% … 0.00%
Daniel Gimeno-Traver 47.9% 16.1% 6.2% … 0.01%
Robin Haase 52.1% 18.1% 7.2% … 0.02%
Jeremy Chardy 52.5% 21.7% 9.1% … 0.03%
Grigor Dimitrov 47.5% 17.9% 7.2% … 0.02%
Michael Russell 16.0% 4.5% 1.0% … 0.00%
(18)Gilles Simon 84.0% 55.9% 31.0% … 0.41%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(27)Marcos Baghdatis 71.6% 51.3% 20.0% … 0.36%
Frederico Gil 28.4% 14.1% 3.0% … 0.00%
(q)Leonardo Mayer 58.4% 22.3% 5.0% … 0.01%
Dustin Brown 41.6% 12.3% 2.2% … 0.00%
(q)Albert Ramos 77.0% 10.8% 3.5% … 0.00%
(q)Javier Marti 23.0% 1.2% 0.1% … 0.00%
Benjamin Becker 10.4% 6.1% 2.1% … 0.00%
(5)Robin Soderling 89.6% 81.9% 64.0% … 5.86%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(4)Andy Murray 91.0% 82.1% 60.3% … 7.11%
(q)Eric Prodon 9.0% 4.3% 1.2% … 0.00%
(LL)Simon Bolelli 58.1% 8.6% 2.6% … 0.01%
(q)Frank Dancevic 41.9% 5.0% 1.2% … 0.00%
(WC)Arnaud Clement 46.8% 9.2% 1.3% … 0.00%
Filippo Volandri 53.2% 12.0% 2.0% … 0.00%
Michael Berrer 19.2% 10.6% 2.0% … 0.00%
(26)Milos Raonic 80.8% 68.2% 29.4% … 1.17%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 80.2% 48.8% 26.6% … 0.14%
Rainer Schuettler 19.8% 5.6% 1.4% … 0.00%
Andreas Haider-Maurer 41.1% 16.6% 6.4% … 0.00%
Ryan Sweeting 58.9% 29.0% 13.7% … 0.03%
Tobias Kamke 39.2% 12.9% 4.8% … 0.00%
Olivier Rochus 60.8% 24.4% 11.5% … 0.02%
Julian Reister 27.6% 12.5% 4.7% … 0.00%
(15)Viktor Troicki 72.4% 50.1% 30.7% … 0.22%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(11)Nicolas Almagro 82.4% 66.6% 46.5% … 1.30%
(q)Lukasz Kubot 17.6% 8.5% 3.0% … 0.00%
Carlos Berlocq 48.2% 11.6% 4.0% … 0.00%
(WC)Bernard Tomic 51.8% 13.3% 5.0% … 0.00%
Potito Starace 55.8% 19.8% 6.4% … 0.01%
(q)Alejandro Falla 44.2% 13.4% 3.7% … 0.00%
Igor Kunitsyn 20.4% 8.3% 2.0% … 0.00%
(20)Florian Mayer 79.6% 58.5% 29.4% … 0.36%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(32)Kevin Anderson 61.3% 34.3% 11.4% … 0.02%
Nicolas Mahut 38.7% 16.5% 4.0% … 0.00%
Juan Ignacio Chela 62.6% 33.8% 11.5% … 0.02%
(WC)Tim Smyczek 37.4% 15.3% 3.7% … 0.00%
(WC)Edouard Roger-Vasselin 54.4% 12.8% 6.0% … 0.00%
(q)Lukas Rosol 45.6% 9.4% 4.0% … 0.00%
(LL)Andreas Beck 15.2% 7.6% 3.3% … 0.00%
(8)Jurgen Melzer 84.8% 70.2% 56.0% … 2.09%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(7)David Ferrer 81.2% 65.7% 47.5% … 2.54%
Jarkko Nieminen 18.8% 9.9% 3.8% … 0.00%
Julien Benneteau 64.9% 18.2% 8.1% … 0.03%
Rui Machado 35.1% 6.3% 1.8% … 0.00%
Kei Nishikori 78.9% 57.6% 27.6% … 0.43%
Yen-Hsun Lu 21.1% 9.2% 1.9% … 0.00%
(q)David Guez 32.2% 7.6% 1.4% … 0.00%
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky 67.8% 25.6% 7.9% … 0.01%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(22)Michael Llodra 73.5% 42.4% 17.7% … 0.09%
(q)Steve Darcis 26.5% 9.0% 2.0% … 0.00%
Philipp Petzschner 64.0% 34.4% 13.3% … 0.03%
Mischa Zverev 36.0% 14.2% 4.1% … 0.01%
Adrian Mannarino 56.9% 15.3% 6.6% … 0.01%
(WC)Guillaume Rufin 43.1% 9.6% 3.5% … 0.00%
(q)Bjorn Phau 12.1% 4.4% 1.2% … 0.00%
(9)Gael Monfils 87.9% 70.6% 51.6% … 1.45%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 85.8% 66.1% 40.1% … 0.83%
(q)Augustin Gensse 14.2% 5.2% 1.2% … 0.00%
(q)Thomas Schoorel 55.6% 17.0% 6.2% … 0.01%
Maximo Gonzalez 44.4% 11.7% 3.8% … 0.00%
Florent Serra 37.4% 8.4% 2.2% … 0.00%
Igor Andreev 62.6% 19.4% 6.4% … 0.01%
Jan Hajek 18.2% 8.4% 2.3% … 0.00%
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 81.8% 63.7% 37.8% … 0.78%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(29)Janko Tipsarevic 75.9% 46.3% 13.2% … 0.11%
Brian Dabul 24.1% 8.1% 1.0% … 0.00%
Ivan Dodig 61.9% 31.2% 7.7% … 0.06%
Pere Riba 38.1% 14.4% 2.3% … 0.00%
(WC)Vincent Millot 46.5% 4.6% 1.5% … 0.00%
(WC)Maxime Teixeira 53.5% 6.1% 2.2% … 0.00%
Feliciano Lopez 23.4% 18.6% 11.9% … 0.27%
(3)Roger Federer 76.6% 70.7% 60.2% … 9.85%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(6)Tomas Berdych 87.7% 68.0% 51.2% … 1.58%
(q)Stephane Robert 12.3% 3.9% 1.3% … 0.00%
Fabio Fognini 50.9% 15.1% 7.1% … 0.01%
Denis Istomin 49.1% 13.1% 6.3% … 0.01%
Tommy Haas 26.8% 5.3% 0.7% … 0.00%
(LL)Marsel Ilhan 73.2% 28.1% 7.4% … 0.00%
Robert Kendrick 22.6% 9.9% 1.9% … 0.00%
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 77.4% 56.7% 24.1% … 0.13%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(19)Marin Cilic 88.4% 61.4% 42.6% … 0.93%
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo 11.6% 2.7% 0.7% … 0.00%
Lleyton Hewitt 45.7% 14.7% 7.4% … 0.03%
Albert Montanes 54.3% 21.1% 11.2% … 0.04%
Daniel Brands 47.0% 15.8% 4.1% … 0.00%
Mikhail Kukushkin 53.0% 20.0% 5.7% … 0.01%
Go Soeda 18.7% 6.8% 1.3% … 0.00%
(12)Mikhail Youzhny 81.3% 57.3% 26.9% … 0.19%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(13)Richard Gasquet 69.1% 56.4% 40.9% … 1.08%
Radek Stepanek 30.9% 20.3% 10.8% … 0.05%
(LL)Alex Bogomolov Jr. 42.8% 8.7% 3.0% … 0.00%
Marcel Granollers 57.2% 14.6% 6.0% … 0.00%
Teymuraz Gabashvili 44.6% 12.8% 3.3% … 0.00%
Andreas Seppi 55.4% 20.6% 6.5% … 0.01%
Andrey Golubev 34.5% 20.1% 7.0% … 0.01%
(23)Thomaz Bellucci 65.5% 46.5% 22.5% … 0.17%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro 89.0% 72.9% 30.1% … 8.40%
Ivo Karlovic 11.0% 3.5% 0.4% … 0.00%
Ernests Gulbis 80.2% 21.5% 4.5% … 0.20%
Blaz Kavcic 19.8% 2.0% 0.1% … 0.00%
(WC)Benoit Paire 51.7% 3.7% 0.5% … 0.00%
Victor Hanescu 48.3% 3.2% 0.4% … 0.00%
Thiemo De Bakker 6.3% 3.6% 0.6% … 0.00%
(2)Novak Djokovic 93.7% 89.5% 63.3% … 27.42%
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