Novak Djokovic and the Best Fifty-Match Stretches

Few players have ever been as dominant as Novak Djokovic is right now. Over his last fifty matches, he has posted stats that are almost too good to be believed:

Updated phenomenal Djokovic stats: Won 47 of 50 w/ 13 bagels, 1.48 DR (ratio return pt % won to serve pt % lost), 21-2 v Top 10 w/ 8 bagels.

— Carl Bialik (@CarlBialik) April 19, 2015

Armed with stats going back 25 years, we can see how Djokovic’s current performance compares with the best in recent ATP history. In some categories, he is indeed atop the list. In others, he’s merely very close to the best ever.

Let’s start with the simple matter of won-loss record. 47 wins in 50 matches is excellent by any standard. Only four players–Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Thomas Muster, and Djokovic himself–have done better. Pete Sampras also won 47 of 50 in a stretch in 1993-94.

The category in which Djokovic most clearly stands out is his performance against top-10 opponents. His 21 top-10 wins in a 50-match stretch outpaces the best of Nadal (18, in 2013), Federer (17, in 2006-07), and Andre Agassi (17, in 1994-95). Only 12 different players have won ten top-10 matchups in a 50-match stretch, let alone 20. Novak’s 23 top-10 matches is also the highest on record.

Then there are the bagels. In this span, Djokovic has won 13 sets by a 6-0 score. That’s not quite the best: Federer won 14 in his 2006-07 stretch. Sergi Bruguera (1993) and Agassi (1992-93) also show up here, with 13 bagels over the course of 50 matches.

Finally, let’s turn to aggregate statistics. Dominance Ratio (DR) is the ratio of return points won to serve points lost, and serves as a simple yardstick for–you guessed it–dominance. A DR of 1.0 indicates the two players were equal, 1.1 is a narrow win, and anything in the 1.5 range is a comfortable victory.

As Carl noted in that tweet, Djokovic has maintained a DR of nearly 1.5 over his last 50 matches. That’s not the best of all time–in fact, it’s not even Novak’s best. From 2013 Cincinnati to the second round of 2014 Monte Carlo, Djokovic posted a cumulative DR of 1.49, just edging out his current streak.

But neither mark is number one on the list. As with so many other categories, this one belongs to 2006 Federer. From the 2006 Halle final through the end of the 2007 Australian Open, Fed won 49 of 50 matches, 16 of 16 matches against the top 10, served 14 bagels, and posted an overall DR of 1.54. It would take an extremely strong performance from Djokovic over the next few weeks–even by his own standards–to reach those heights.

If you prefer the more traditional metric of total points won, Fed is still your number one, at 56.84% over that 2006-07 span. A different streak of Novak’s–his historic 2011 run–comes in a very, very close second, at 56.77%. Nadal put together a stretch in 2012-13 of 56.6%. The entire top ten is dominated by these three guys; the only other player who has won more than 56% of total points over 50 matches is Guillermo Coria, who did so in 2003.

Comparing Novak’s current streak to the rest of the field merely emphasizes how much distance he has placed between himself and the pack. Federer’s DR over his last 50 matches is a very respectable 1.37, with Nadal not far behind at 1.29. Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic aren’t far behind in the official rankings, but by this measure they have an immense amount of ground to make up, with cumulative DRs of 1.17 and 1.16, respectively.

For Djokovic right now, a number that starts with 1.1 is a bad day. In his last 50 matches, he has sunk below 1.2 only seven times. Whichever metric you prefer, we’re watching one of the great performances of modern tennis history.