Only three ATP players this year have won more than five matches against top-ten-ranked opponents: Rafael Nadal (20), Novak Djokovic (18), and Stanislas Wawrinka (7). It’s a good single-stat representation of Stan’s great year, as the Swiss had only won 18 matches against top-ten opponents in the previous eight seasons, including a painful 2-11 showing last year.
Wawrinka’s ability to play at the level of the very best players makes one wonder if he will move even higher in the rankings next year. Is it possible that players who amass so many top-ten victories are slated for bigger and better things?
Certainly, seven top-ten wins in a season is no mean accomplishment. Andy Roddick finished the 2003 season as World #1 with only six such wins, and Nadal ascended to #2 in 2005 with only five top-ten wins. Since 1991, 25 players have finished a season in the top five while winning fewer matches against top-ten opponents than Wawrinka did this year. And of course, with at least three matches against top-flight opponents this week, Stan might not be done.
On the other hand, tallying a bunch of victories against top-ten opponents doesn’t always predict further success. Since 1991, 42 players have won at least seven such matches while finishing outside the top five. Of those, only 12 improved their overall winning percentage the next year. On average, those players saw their overall winning percentages drop eight percent.
One particularly bizarre precedent for Stan’s top-ten success is Vince Spadea‘s 1999 campaign. While he barely broke even on the season, winning 33 of 60 matches, eight of those wins were against top-ten opponents, including Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, and Yevgeny Kafelnikov (twice!). The next year, he lost his first sixteen matches in a row and tallied only three tour-level wins–against anyone.
There are a few extreme examples in the other direction. Sampras went 8-7 against top-ten opponents in 1991, finishing the year at #6. He continued his climb into the tennis stratosphere the following season. 19-year-old Lleyton Hewitt won 10 of 16 top-ten matches in 2000 en route to a #7 ranking. A year later, he was #1 in the world. And for a case even closer to home for Wawrinka, a young man named Roger won 10 matches against top-ten opponents in 2002, finishing the year at #6. It would be a long time before his ranking returned to such a low point.
Of course, Pete, Lleyton, and Roger were youngsters on their way up. No matter how distended the ATP aging curve becomes, it’s safe to assume that Wawrinka is not at an equivalent stage of his career.
It’s a familiar story with tennis statistics. Wawrinka has a great season, so we look for the reason why. (Top-ten wins? Improved second-serve win percentage? Better tiebreak win percentage?) It’s easy to find numbers that show us what worked this year, much more difficult to convincingly explain why. It’s more difficult still to support a conviction that the player has “turned a corner” and we can expect more of this high-quality play from him next year.
Top-ten win tallies like Wawrinka’s aren’t any better at picking future winners than tiebreak records like his 17-12 mark are. It’s no more than a fun stat and a useful marker of a solid year. But don’t fret, Stan fans, it doesn’t make a coherent case for a decline, either. Stan may well be a top-ten mainstay for the next few years–after all, somebody’s got to be.
I’ve been thinking of looking at the merry-go-round of players ranked from 6 to 10 since 2005. I have a feeling no one player has managed more than 2 years in a row in that small zone. Since there’s been almost no room above them, most of have gone down, often out of the top 20, like Tisparevic this year. Gasquet, Monfils, Isner, Tsonga and others have made appearances in the top 10, but they can’t sustain it. I like Wawrinka but doubt he’ll stay there either.
R
Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
Well, Rick, your statement tickled my curiosity and I checked…
First surprise, the majority of the players ranked in this zone do stay 2 years in a row in the top 10 : from 2005 (included) to 2013, only Gaudio, Ancic, Gasquet, Simon, Blake, Youzhny, Fish and Almagro managed just one year (8 players on 40 occasions).
Robredo, Gonzalez, Tsonga, del Potro, Soderling, Ferrer, Tipsarevic and Gasquet stand at most 2 years in a row (some of them at 2 different period)
But to achieve more is quite rare, and those players tend to climb a bit higher in the process : Nalbandian did it 3 years in a row (2003-2007), 3 years for Coria (2003-2005) ; Roddick remained between 6-10 from 2006 to 2010 (and was better ranked before) ; Berdych is 6-10 since 2010 ; Tsonga was ranked 5 times in this zone, but twice 2 years in a row ; as did del Potro ; Ferrer did 2 years in a row (2010-2011), then ranked better.
So you can say that few players are “pure” 6-10 for longer than 2 years : Berdych, del Potro and Tsonga are the players who ranked most frequently between 2005-2013 in this place, without climbing higher for a long time.