In the latest step of Rafael Nadal‘s minor league rehab assignment comeback, he’ll play Martin Alund tonight in the Sao Paulo semifinals. Yes, the same Martin Alund who had never played a tour-level event before last week, has a career losing record in challengers, and only made the main draw as a lucky loser.
The jrank forecast gives Alund a 4.3% chance of beating Rafa tonight which, even having seen Nadal’s unconvincing win over Carlos Berlocq last night, seems a bit generous.
It also seems odd. Even in lower-rung ATP events, players of Alund’s caliber (even a caliber or two above that) rarely reach the semis. In San Jose this week, the lowest-ranked player in the semifinals is #22 Tommy Haas, assuring fans in California a very different level of play today.
As it turns out, hugely lopsided semifinals do occur now and then, and occasionally they even result in upsets.
Since the beginning of 2001, there have been about 1600 tour-level semifinals. Using jrank, I estimated each player’s chances in those matches. Nadal’s 95.7% probability of winning tonight doesn’t even rank in the top ten most lopsided semis.
Rafa has long been a stalwart of one-sided semifinals. His dominance on clay is reflected in the numbers, and when he does play smaller events, he makes some opponents look woefully overmatched. Of the 11 semifinals that were more lopsided than tonight’s showdown, Rafa was the favorite in four–including last week’s dismantling of Jeremy Chardy. At the 2008 Barcelona event, Denis Gremelmayr had a mere 1.6% chance of triumphing over Rafa. He won a single game.
(Chardy is rated quite a bit higher than Alund, but after last week’s loss to Horacio Zeballos, Nadal’s rating has fallen accordingly. The jrank forecast for this week’s semifinal is thus almost identical to last week’s.)
Of course, there’s a big difference between a high probability and a certainty, and some of these lopsided matchups have generated surprises. In Washington in 2007, the virtually unknown John Isner took out Gael Monfils, despite a mere 2.4% chance of victory. The same year in Amersfoort, qualifier and eventual champion Steve Darcis defeated Mikhail Youzhny, overcoming a pre-match probability of only 6.1%.
Even Nadal has suffered in these situations. The third-biggest ATP semifinal upset was Rafa’s 2010 Bangkok loss at the hands of Guillermo Garcia Lopez.
In all of those examples the underdog was a player of undeniable talent, while Alund has stumbled into his first ATP semifinal. But as Nadal’s stumbles against Zeballos and Berlocq have shown us, it doesn’t matter so much who is across the net–the king of clay is far from his usual invincible self.
(After the break, find a list of the 63 most lopsided ATP semifinals since 2001. Asterisks denote upsets.)
Fave% Year Event Surface Winner Loser Score 98.5% 2006 St. Petersburg Carpet Mario Ancic Ernests Gulbis 6-2 6-3 98.4% 2004 Stockholm Hard Thomas Johansson Michael Ryderstedt 6-3 6-2 98.4% 2008 Barcelona Clay Rafael Nadal Denis Gremelmayr 6-1 6-0 98.0% 2009 Bastad Clay Robin Soderling Andreas Vinciguerra 6-1 7-6(6) 98.0% 2011 Barcelona Clay Rafael Nadal Ivan Dodig 6-3 6-2 97.6% * 2007 Washington Hard John Isner Gael Monfils 6-7(4) 7-6(1) 7-6(2) 97.2% 2003 Costa Do Sauipe Hard Sjeng Schalken Gaston Etlis 6-1 2-0 RET 97.1% 2008 Estoril Clay Roger Federer Denis Gremelmayr 2-6 7-5 6-1 96.8% 2012 Basel Hard Roger Federer Paul Henri Mathieu 7-5 6-4 96.4% 2007 Stuttgart Clay Rafael Nadal Feliciano Lopez 6-1 7-5 96.3% 2013 Santiago Clay Rafael Nadal Jeremy Chardy 6-2 6-2 95.8% 2009 Johannesburg Hard Jo Wilfried Tsonga Frederico Gil 6-3 6-4 95.7% 2013 Sao Paulo Clay Rafael Nadal Martin Alund ? 95.3% 2004 Gstaad Clay Roger Federer Potito Starace 6-3 3-6 6-3 95.3% 2009 Halle Grass Novak Djokovic Olivier Rochus 7-6(7) 6-4 95.0% 2010 Newport Grass Mardy Fish Richard Bloomfield 7-6(5) 6-4 93.9% * 2007 Amersfoort Clay Steve Darcis Mikhail Youzhny 4-6 6-0 7-5 93.8% 2006 Estoril Clay David Nalbandian Albert Portas 7-5 6-1 93.7% 2001 Stuttgart Clay Guillermo Canas Marc Lopez 6-2 6-2 93.4% 2008 Wimbledon Grass Rafael Nadal Rainer Schuettler 6-1 7-6(3) 6-4 93.0% 2010 Shanghai Masters Hard Andy Murray Juan Monaco 6-4 6-1 92.9% 2010 Barcelona Clay Robin Soderling Thiemo De Bakker 6-1 6-4 92.7% 2006 Barcelona Clay Rafael Nadal Nicolas Almagro 7-6(2) 6-3 92.6% * 2010 Bangkok Hard Guillermo Garcia Lopez Rafael Nadal 2-6 7-6(3) 6-3 92.5% 2012 Munich Clay Marin Cilic Tommy Haas 6-3 6-4 92.4% 2009 Basel Hard Roger Federer Marco Chiudinelli 7-6(7) 6-3 92.4% 2001 Shanghai Hard Michel Kratochvil Kenneth Carlsen 6-2 6-4 92.3% 2004 Buenos Aires Clay Guillermo Coria Richard Gasquet 7-6(1) 6-1 92.1% 2006 Zagreb Carpet Ivan Ljubicic Novak Djokovic 6-7(6) 6-3 6-4 92.1% 2006 Gstaad Clay Feliciano Lopez Marin Cilic 7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-3 92.0% * 2012 Nice Clay Brian Baker Nikolay Davydenko 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2 92.0% 2001 Chennai Hard Andrei Stoliarov Tommy Robredo 4-6 6-3 6-4 92.0% 2010 Madrid Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Nicolas Almagro 4-6 6-2 6-2 91.8% 2010 Nice Clay Fernando Verdasco Leonardo Mayer 7-6(3) 7-5 91.7% 2008 Metz Hard Paul Henri Mathieu Adrian Mannarino 7-6(8) 7-6(1) 91.7% 2003 Chennai Hard Paradorn Srichaphan Jean Rene Lisnard 6-2 6-1 91.7% 2003 Bucharest Clay Nicolas Massu Razvan Sabau 6-1 6-4 91.6% 2008 Beijing Hard Andy Roddick Bjorn Phau 6-2 6-7(4) 6-1 91.5% 2006 Tokyo Hard Roger Federer Benjamin Becker 6-3 6-4 91.4% 2003 Houston Clay Andy Roddick Olivier Mutis 4-6 6-1 6-2 91.4% 2011 Rome Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Richard Gasquet 7-5 6-1 91.4% 2010 Halle Grass Roger Federer Philipp Petzschner 7-6(3) 6-4 91.4% 2003 Sopot Clay Guillermo Coria Luis Horna 6-2 6-2 91.4% 2007 Hamburg Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Lleyton Hewitt 2-6 6-3 7-5 91.3% 2004 Umag Clay Guillermo Canas Guillermo Garcia Lopez 6-2 6-2 91.2% * 2005 Sydney Hard Ivo Minar Radek Stepanek 6-1 6-2 91.1% 2010 Rome Masters Clay Rafael Nadal Ernests Gulbis 6-4 3-6 6-4 90.9% 2003 Valencia Clay Juan Carlos Ferrero Flavio Saretta 7-6(3) 6-2 90.8% * 2010 Estoril Clay Albert Montanes Roger Federer 6-2 7-6(5) 90.8% 2011 Belgrade Clay Novak Djokovic Janko Tipsarevic W/O 90.8% 2005 Chennai Hard Carlos Moya Guillermo Garcia Lopez 6-4 2-6 7-6(2) 90.7% 2010 Roland Garros Clay Rafael Nadal Jurgen Melzer 6-2 6-3 7-6(6) 90.7% 2009 Barcelona Clay Rafael Nadal Nikolay Davydenko 6-3 6-2 90.6% 2002 Amersfoort Clay Juan Ignacio Chela John Van Lottum 2-6 6-3 6-3 90.4% 2009 Belgrade Clay Novak Djokovic Andreas Seppi 4-6 6-1 6-2 90.4% * 2007 Bucharest Clay Victor Hanescu Gael Monfils 6-2 6-3 90.3% 2003 Houston Clay Andre Agassi Jurgen Melzer 6-4 6-1 90.3% 2008 Vina del Mar Clay Fernando Gonzalez Pablo Cuevas 6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-2 90.2% 2011 Vienna Hard Jo Wilfried Tsonga Daniel Brands 6-2 7-6(4) 90.2% 2008 Warsaw Clay Nikolay Davydenko Fabio Fognini 6-2 6-3 90.2% 2012 Miami Masters Hard Novak Djokovic Juan Monaco 6-0 7-6(5) 90.0% 2011 Marseille Hard Robin Soderling Dmitry Tursunov 7-5 6-1