Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Berrettini and Novak Djokovic make the most of their first two shots, Karolina Pliskova finds some magic out wide, and the Croatian doubles team of Mektic and Pavic chases the Bryan brothers.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 46%, the rate at which Matteo Berrettini’s serves are going unreturned at Wimbledon. Only Nick Kyrgios and John Isner allowed fewer returns in play, and the next most indefensible server among the men’s semifinalists is Novak Djokovic, who is getting free points 40% of the time. Hubert Hurkacz, whose serves only go unreturned 33% of the time, will have his hands full today simply getting into points. When Berrettini lands his first serve, he wins 57% of points without needing to hit a second shot, and he wins 71% in two shots or less. That’s the category the Italian typically dominates, but remarkably, he ranks third on the first-serve plus-one list. Alexander Bublik won 76% of his first-serve points so quickly, and in second place in Djokovic. The world number one still doesn’t have the devastating first strike of Berrettini, but he makes up for it with his second shot. When opponents get Djokovic’s 1st-serve back in play, he finishes the point with his next stroke almost half the time—more than anyone else who played multiple matches at Wimbledon this year. If we get a Berrettini-Djokovic final on Sunday, the serves will be nasty, the forehands brutish, and the points short.
Our second number is 82%, Karolina Pliskova’s success rate when she landed wide serves yesterday against Aryna Sabalenka. Two of the most effective servers in the women’s game faced off yesterday in the second Wimbledon semi-final, and the margins were as small as expected. Pliskova came back from losing the first set 7-5, and won 52% of the total points played. The Czech’s decision to go wide as often as she did may have made the difference. The average WTA player wins less than 60% of serve points on grass, while Pliskova’s good for about 63%. Against Sabalenka, she hit 14 aces and won 75% of her serve points. The wide serves, in both the deuce and ad courts, were deadliest of all. According to Match Charting Project data, the average woman is slightly more effective when serving wide, and Pliskova is usually about even. Yesterday, she won 31 of the 38 points when she landed a wide first or second serve, and 15 of the 18 wide serves in the ad court. The tactic may not be as effective against the more nimble Ashleigh Barty in tomorrow’s final, but you could hardly blame Pliskova if she goes wide in the most crucial moments of the championship match.
Today’s third and final number is 7, the number of titles won already this year by the Croatian doubles team of Mate Pavic and Nikola Mektic. Since 2000, only one other doubles team has won so many titles before Wimbledon. That pair, as you might guess, was Bob and Mike Bryan, who won eight titles before Wimbledon in 2013. But unlike most recent doubles leaderboards, the Bryans hold only the spot on top, rather than the top five or six best seasons. Even they only topped six pre-Wimbledon titles once. Doubles players who hoped for a little more equality on tour after Mike and Bob retired didn’t figure on Pavic and Mektic. Playing with different partners last year, Pavic won the US Open and Mektic won the Tour Finals. Since teaming up, they’ve won tournaments on every surface this year, and they’ve earned a place in tomorrow’s Wimbledon finals. In 2013, the Bryans made Wimbledon their 9th title of the year, but won only two more the rest of the way. The Croatians are likely to bag their first major as a team this weekend, and it’s hard to imagine they won’t do even better than the Bryans between now and November.
