Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Nick Kyrgios has outplayed Ugo Humbert through four and a half sets, Garbine Muguruza is your bottom-half favorite, and Kiki Bertens plays her final match at Wimbledon.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 68%, the probability that Nick Kyrgios will win his suspended match against Ugo Humbert, based on his serve and return points won through four and a half sets. Yesterday, the big-serving Australian won the opener, dropped the following two sets, then raced through the fourth, 6-1. The match was suspended for curfew at 3-all in the decider. With almost 250 points played, Kyrgios has won 70% on his serve and 37% against Humbert’s, a combination that typically results in victory. The 68% probability reflects the highly random, one-set-shootout nature of the resumption, and it ignores any pre-match forecasts, such as the Tennis Abstract Elo-based estimate that Humbert started the day yesterday with more than a 60% chance of advancing. At the very least, Kyrgios has neutralized that advantage. With only six matches since last summer’s restart, the Aussie’s current level is anybody’s guess. At least today, he won’t need to sustain his A game for long.
Our second number is 7.4%, Garbine Muguruza’s chance of winning a second Wimbledon title this year, according to the Tennis Abstract forecast. Muguruza demolished Fiona Ferro in only 51 minutes on Monday, and with the early exit of Petra Kvitova, she’s the favorite in a wide-open bottom half. The Spaniard scuffled through an injury-riddled clay court season, winning only three matches on dirt and losing in the first-round at Roland Garros to 81st-ranked Marta Kostyuk. If the result against Ferro is any indication, she’s feeling fine now. If history is any guide, the biggest danger to Muguruza at Wimbledon is an early stumble. Aside from her 2017 title and appearance in the 2015 final, she has lost in the first round twice and the second round three times. It would take quite an upset to add to that tally, as her opponent today is Dutch qualifier Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove, a player who has never cracked the top 140. Muguruza was one of the hottest players at the start of the season, and she still stands in 6th place in the single-season WTA race. There’s no such thing as an easy draw these days, but Muguruza’s opponents should fear her more than she worries about them.
Today’s third and final number is 4, the career-best ranking of Kiki Bertens. Bertens underwent surgery on her Achilles tendon at the end of last year, and she announced this month that 2021 will be her final full season. It’s a sad end to the career of one of the WTA’s most surprising late bloomers. In the spring of 2016, she headed to Miami as a 24-year-old ranked outside the top 100. She won four matches there, then claimed a title in Nurnberg and reached the final four at Roland Garros. In two months, her ranking shot up 70 places, and two years later, she would crack the top 10, a status she would maintain for two and half years. Until her injury, she was one of the best players in the world on clay. Yesterday, her Wimbledon career came to an end after a routine defeat to Marta Kostyuk. Bertens often flew below the radar, and even her farewell tour is likely to be eclipsed by other stories. But for those who were paying attention, the Dutchwoman at her best was a fearsome competitor, and few players have improved so much in their late 20s.
