Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Ostapenko swings big and wins big, Sam Querrey needs his second serve back, and the women’s field at Wimbledon sets a new record.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 8, the tally of return winners struck by Jelena Ostapenko in the Eastbourne final on Saturday. Her go-for-broke approach on return paid dividends, as she defeated Anett Kontaveit in straight sets. The title makes her one of only ten active players to win tournaments on grass, clay, indoor hard, and outdoor hard. Ostapenko’s willingness to take big cuts against the serve has played a role in her past triumphs, but she took it to another level on Saturday. According to Match Charting Project data, 3% of points on the WTA tour end in a return winner, a rate that creeps up to 4% on grass. In 56 charted matches, Ostapenko has hit return winners on 7% of points, and her 8 counterstrikes against Kontaveit represented a whopping 17% of return points. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, Ostapenko is a riddle wrapped in an enigma inside a Latvian, with the four titles on different surfaces alongside 50 first-round exits by the age of 24. Whatever happens at the All England Club, where she reached the semi-finals in 2018, it will involve some awfully big swings.
Our second number is 35%, Sam Querrey’s rate of second-serve points won in Saturday’s Mallorca final against Daniil Medvedev. Throughout the grass court season, Querrey has been typically effective with his first serve, winning 81% against Medvedev and a mind-boggling 30 of 31 points in the Mallorca semi-final versus Adrian Mannarino. In his career on grass, Querrey has held on to 52% of second-serve points, a respectable rate that has contributed to winning nearly two of three matches on the surface. Saturday’s performance was only the 8th time in 114 completed grass-court contests when the American won so few second-serve points. Medvedev deserves some of the credit—after all, he held Querrey to an even lower winning percentage when they played at Eastbourne in 2017. But Querrey struggled to get a second-serve rhythm and committed an uncharacteristic five double faults. Thanks to his past exploits on grass, the American retains a semblance of a chance at Wimbledon, with a higher Tennis Abstract Elo rating on the surface than any other unseeded player. But with an opening-round match against the sturdy Pablo Carreno Busta, he’ll need both serves to click like they did at his peak.
Today’s third and final number is 55, the number of women in the Wimbledon main draw who have reached at least one major quarter-final. As I wrote in the Economist on Friday, it’s an unprecedented level of depth on the WTA tour, and it remains true even after the last-minute Covid-related withdrawal of Johanna Konta. Before 2014, there had never been more than 40 former quarter-finalists in the Wimbledon field, and this year’s tally of 55 blows away the previous high of 48, set in 2019. Even with Naomi Osaka and Simona Halep absent, 14 slam champions will vie for another title. When Serena Williams won the title in 2009, she was one of only six slam champs in the draw. This time around, she lines up to face Angelique Kerber in the third round—unless things shake out differently and she gets an early date with Ana Konjuh, another former major quarter-finalist who had to go through qualifying. On one hand, the tally of 55 grand slam quarter-finalists suggests that the second week will be packed with familiar names. On the other, are you ready to bet against Aryna Sabalenka, Liudmila Samsonova, and the rest of the remaining 73 women in the field?
