Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Djokovic and Nadal face off against a pair of Italian prospects, Iga Swiatek uses her singles off-days for doubles heroics, and Tamara Zidansek is the latest sporting hero from her tiny homeland.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 91%, Novak Djokovic’s and Rafael Nadal’s combined career winning percentages against players under 21 at grand slams. Both Djokovic and Nadal face Italian upstarts today, with Novak taking on 19-year-old Lorenzo Musetti, and Rafa set for a rematch with Jannik Sinner, his quarter-final opponent from Roland Garros last fall. Sinner is the stronger contender at this point, with an official ranking that has risen from 75th to 19th since the 2020 French Open and a Tennis Abstract Elo ranking of #8. But Nadal has a habit of reminding the stars of the future that they aren’t the stars of the present. He’s riding an 11-match grand slam win streak against under-21s, dating back to his loss to Nick Kyrgios at Wimbledon seven years ago. If possible, Djokovic’s record against youngsters is even more impressive. His win streak stands at 14. In 19 career slam meetings against under-21s, he’s lost only twice—at the French Open in 2006 and 2007 to a rising star named Rafael Nadal.
Our second number is 14.9%, the probability that Bethanie Mattek Sands and Iga Swiatek would come back to win yesterday after losing the first set and going down 15-40 at 4-all in the second. Sure, it’s not the most dramatic comeback of the tournament, but it’s the latest bit of evidence that Swiatek is almost as dangerous on the doubles court as she is in singles. On the other side of the court were Elise Mertens and Hsieh Su Wei, two of the four women who have held the #1 doubles ranking this year and owners of five grand slam titles between them. Iga and Mattek Sands fought off two break points to hold, then broke to win the second set and held on for a 7-5 victory in the third after more than three hours of play. Partnering Nicole Melichar last fall, Iga reached the doubles semis and Roland Garros, an achievement quickly eclipsed by her singles title. A defense of her singles feat is looking increasingly likely, and a repeat in doubles is only one match away.
Today’s third and final number is 2.08 million, the population of Slovenia. Last fall in the Wall Street Journal, Joshua Robinson and Ben Cohen called attention to the probability-defying strength of Slovenian athletics. The tiny Eastern European nation only three decades removed from independence boasts an NBA all-star, first and second place at last fall’s Tour de France, and Olympic gold medals in skiing. Slovenia can now add a new tennis highlight to the list. Tamara Zidansek battled through a marathon first-round match against Bianca Andreescu a week ago and hasn’t looked back since, winning six of seven sets and earning the first-ever Slovenian place in a grand slam quarter-final. It’s a huge milestone for the 23-year-old Zidansek, ranked 85th in the world, but a Slovenian breakthrough in tennis was just a matter of time. Veteran countrywoman Polona Hercog also reached the third round in Paris, the fifth time in her career she won two matches at a major, and 20-year-old Kaja Juvan is ranked 12th among an outstanding current crop of under-21s. Despite her modest ranking, Zidansek is hardly out of her depth in the final eight: Her next opponent is 33rd seed Paula Badosa. They’ve never met on court, but Badosa knows to respect the flag: In six career matches against Slovenians, she’s lost as often as she’s won.
