Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Martinez stops Sebastian Korda, Garbine Muguruza suffers a rare loss to a low-ranked player on clay, and Jelena Ostapenko once again heads home early.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 22, Garbine Muguruza’s winning streak on clay against players ranked outside the top 75… before yesterday’s match. Beating such modestly-ranked opponents is hardly a signature achievement, but Muguruza’s run was impressive nonetheless. It spanned eight years, going all the way back to a loss in Strasbourg in 2013 to Lucie Hradecka, when Garbine herself was ranked only 72nd. Monday night, 81st-ranked Marta Kostyuk ended all that with an 83-minute, straight-set win, handing Muguruza her first-ever opening-round loss at Roland Garros. It concludes a disappointing clay-court season for a player who carried considerable momentum onto her favorite surface. The Spaniard won a title and reached two more titles on hard courts in 2021, but injury limited her to only three entries on clay and a mere three match wins. For 18-year-old Marta Kostyuk, the upset spawns opportunity. All four matches in her section of the draw went the way of the underdog, so instead of dirtballer Sara Sorribes Tormo, Kostyuk’s next assignment is Saisai Zheng. The nearest seed was #22 Petra Martic, until she was knocked out by Camila Giorgi. Muguruza’s early departure is nothing to be proud of, but at least she needn’t suffer alone.
Our second number is 28%, the rate of return points won yesterday by Sebastian Korda in a losing effort against little-known Spaniard Pedro Martinez. Korda, the 20-year-old American sitting on a career-best ranking of #50 after winning the title in Parma on Saturday, beat Martinez in Paris just seven months ago. Last year, Korda flew through qualifying and raced to the fourth round at the French, beating Aslan Karatsev, John Isner, and Martinez before finally hitting a Rafael Nadal-shaped wall. Despite standing 6-foot-5 and carrying an American passport, Korda is a solid returner, winning more than 41% of points against his opponents’ serves on clay courts at tour-level events. That’s better than average for an ATP top-50 player, and it’s way better than the performance he delivered yesterday. Martinez saved all four break points he allowed, and Korda claimed a mere 10 of 55 points when the Spaniard landed his first serve. To improve on his 2020 fourth-round showing, the American will need to be a lot better. Fortunately, he usually is.
Today’s third and final number is 10, Jelena Ostapenko’s career first-round exits from grand slams. For Ostapenko, who won the French Open in 2017 and has twice reached the final eight at Wimbledon, it has always been feast or famine. Her draw in Paris was nothing to envy, opening against defending finalist Sofia Kenin, an American going through a rough patch but one who earned a top-five ranking less than 18 months ago. The battle between former major champions Ostapenko and Kenin went the way of the American in three sets, dropping the Latvian’s first-round record at Roland Garros to 2-4. It’s easy to poke fun at the hyper-aggressive, demonstrative Ostapenko’s early exits, but Kenin is only the latest in a run of first-round opponents that no single player deserves. In her short career, she has opened fortnights against Petra Kvitova, Naomi Osaka, Kiki Bertens, Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sakkari, Karolina Muchova, Hsieh Su Wei—twice—and now Kenin. If there’s any justice in the grand slam universe, Ostapenko will coast to another Wimbledon semi-final next month on a track greased with wild cards and lucky losers.
