Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Qualifier Alex Molcan finds a chink in Novak Djokovic’s armor, Barbora Krejcikova follows an unusual career trajectory, and Alexander Zverev gets some extra practice on Lenglen.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 17, the number of drop shots played by Alex Molcan in the Belgrade final on Saturday against Novak Djokovic. Molcan, a 23-year-old lefty from Slovakia, began the week in qualifying, ranked outside the top 250. He dropped only one set in six matches to reach the final against Djokovic, the hometown hero with the slightly more extensive resume. Djokovic has drawn attention for his increasing reliance on the dropshot in recent years, but it was Molcan, the upstart, who was quicker to draw his opponent to the net. The match only lasted 111 points, so the Slovakian’s dropshot total represents almost one per six points. More importantly, it worked. Molcan won the point on 9 of the 17 dropshots, a narrow margin, but considerably better than the 43% of total points won by the underdog. For Djokovic, the Belgrade event was little more than a warmup. For Molcan, it was a career highlight, and he may have trialed a tactic to be incorporated by certain other left-handers looking to beat Djokovic on clay.
Our second number is 135, the number of weeks between Barbora Krejcikova’s first appearance at #1 in the WTA doubles rankings, in October 2018, and her first tour-level singles title. The solo feat came in Strasbourg on Saturday with a straightforward win over Sorana Cirstea, and it caps a meteoric rise from doubles specialist to all-around threat. Most remarkable about Krejcikova’s trajectory is the order of her accomplishments. Since the tour began publishing doubles rankings in 1984, 45 different women have held the top spot. Of the 38 who also won a singles title, the doubles #1 ranking came on average five years later, and for several players, there was a full decade between them. Only Krejcikova, Sam Stosur, and Peng Shuai reached the doubles milestone first, and the parallels between Stosur and the Czech are remarkable. Krejcikova is 25 years old, within one month of Stosur’s age at the time of her first title. Both women reached the top of the doubles table on the strength of two major titles with a regular partner. One might reasonably doubt that Krejcikova is a future slam titlist in singles, but in 2009, the thought of major champ Sam Stosur was equally outlandish. Two years later, the Australian upset Serena Williams to win the US Open.
Today’s third and final number is 4.1, the average number of sets played per match by Alexander Zverev in his career at Roland Garros. Last night, Zverev continued his practice of making simple things complicated in Paris, needing five sets to get past 152nd-ranked qualifier Oscar Otte. Now in his sixth main draw appearance at the French, Zverev has played more five-setters than fours or threes, including three in a row in 2018 and two in the first three rounds in 2019. He’s now 7-0 in deciding sets at Roland Garros, a somewhat misleading stat because he should never have played any of them. Only two of the seven opponents were seeds, none ranked higher than Damir Dzumhur’s #29 in 2018. Zverev’s roundabout win over Otte is a new low, which sets the wrong tone for a draw that has done him nothing but favors. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal landed in the other half, potential quarter-final opponent Dominic Thiem lost yesterday, and his second-round opponent is another qualifier. Zverev remains the favorite to meet Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis, but it’s unlikely that he’ll make the next four rounds look easy.
