Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Barbora Krejcikova has a chance to win her first singles title, Cecchinato has escaped an Italian losing streak in Parma, and Naomi Osaka sets a new standard for earning power in women’s sports.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 29, the number of career WTA singles main draws entered by Barbora Krejcikova. The Czech, who is better-known as a doubles star, broke into the singles top 100 with a fourth-round run at the French Open last fall, and her momentum hasn’t stopped since. Krejcikova is up to 38th on the WTA computer, and is the second-highest ranked player without a tour-level title to her name, behind only Ons Jabeur. This week’s event in Strasbourg may be her chance to add a singles championship to her trophy case and climb even further in the rankings. Seeded 5th this week, Krejcikova has knocked out two French players, including Caroline Garcia in a three-setter yesterday. Her quarter-final opponent, third-seed Ekaterina Alexandrova, is the favorite on paper, but the Czech is the higher-rated player by Elo, with a 55% chance of advancing to the final four. With top seeds Bianca Andreescu and Jessica Pegula already out of the running, the winner of today’s Krejcikova-Alexandrova match has a good chance of riding their winning streak all the way to Paris.
Our second number is 1, the number of Italians remaining in the draw at the new ATP event in Parma. Nine players from the home country appeared in the 28-player main draw, including top seed Lorenzo Sonego, teen sensation Lorenzo Musetti, and veteran wild card Andreas Seppi. But Italy’s steady takeover of the men’s tour is taking a pause in Emilia-Romagna this week, as five of them lost in the first round. The second round brought three more victims, including Sonego, who gave local fans plenty to cheer in Rome, but lost in straight sets last night to 20-year-old American Sebastian Korda. The last man standing is 104th-ranked wild card Marco Cecchinato, the 2018 Roland Garros semi-finalist who has since settled back into a role on the fringes of the main tour. Cecchinato knocked out 7th seed Aljaz Bedene yesterday, and with a quarter-final match against lucky loser Norbert Gombos and a wide-open draw, the Tennis Abstract forecast gives Marco a 15% chance of scoring his first title since February of 2019. Pre-tournament odds picked Italy as the country most likely to triumph in Parma, and while Cecchinato was hardly the reason why, he could prove to be this week’s source of national pride.
Today’s third and final number is $37.4 million, Naomi Osaka’s estimated earnings from prize money and endorsements in 2020, according to Forbes magazine. That makes her not only the highest-paid female tennis player, but the best-compensated woman athlete, taking over for Serena Williams, who held the same position from 2016 to 2019. Osaka earned over $10 million last year from her deal with Nike alone, a rare agreement in which the apparel maker allows her to wear patches from other sponsors as well. A brand consultant interviewed by the New York Times described Osaka as “the perfect storm,” a young, female superstar from a bicultural background who speaks out for social justice. Like another player with a long run on the Forbes list, Maria Sharapova, Osaka’s off-court qualities mean that her endorsement value doesn’t depend entirely on being #1. The timing of the news of her earning power highlights the difference, as she’s an 18-to-1 underdog to triumph on her weakest surface at Roland Garros. But if Sharapova is any guide, clumsiness on clay doesn’t deter sponsors, nor is it necessarily permanent: the Siberian Siren eventually won the French Open twice.
