Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Shapo falls short of the Geneva title despite some outstanding first-strike tennis, Ana Konjuh takes an unlikely step in her comeback, and it was a big weekend for the Shelton family at the NCAA championships.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 35%, the fraction of Denis Shapovalov’s serves—first and second—that didn’t come back in Saturday’s Geneva final against Casper Ruud. Except for five double faults, Shapo’s pure serving performance was outstanding for a clay court, as he won another 18% of his serve points with his second shot. Alas, everything else went the way of the Norwegian, with Ruud winning 62% of points four strokes or longer and more than holding his own on serve, not allowing the Canadian a single break point. It’s tough to say whether Shapovalov is truly adapting to the clay—he couldn’t outslug Ruud from the baseline, and he lost 8 of his 12 net approaches. Yet the results suggest he’s getting there: This week was his first final on the surface, and it included wins over more traditional dirtballers Marco Cecchinato, Laslo Djere, and Pablo Cuevas. Unfortunately, the momentum will go to waste: Shapovalov withdrew from the French Open yesterday, resting an ailing shoulder and saving his bullets for friendlier surfaces.
Our second number is 79%, the rate at which Ana Konjuh has won clay-court matches since the restart. The 23-year-old Croatian has always preferred fast courts, entering the spring with just 22 clay contests out of 133 tour-level matches. Yet recent results may inspire her to shift her priorities. She kicked off her comeback last September with a title on clay at an ITF $25K in Zagreb, reached a quarter-final in Istanbul last month, and set a new career-best on the surface by qualifying and reaching the final in Belgrade last week. All told, it’s 15 wins against only four losses. Her triumphant week in Belgrade ended with a whimper, as she retired down a set and a break to Paula Badosa in the final. But having gone nearly 3 years without a tour-level win due to injury before March, her takeaways from Serbia are overwhelmingly positive. She knocked out two top-50 players in Yulia Putintseva and Nadia Podoroska, and perhaps most important, her body held up through six wins in eight days, a challenge enhanced by rain delays throughout the week. The resilient Croatian may never become a force on dirt, but if the surprise clay-court showing is any indication, she could eventually regain a spot in the top 20.
Today’s third and final number is 33 years, the span of time since Bryan Shelton was named an All-American for his tennis performance at Georgia Tech. After a professional career that included two Newport titles and a fourth-round result at Wimbledon in 1994, Shelton coached the women’s team at his alma mater, leading the Yellow Jackets to a national title in 2007. He’s now the head coach of the men’s squad at the University of Florida, which won the NCAA team championship on Saturday. Clinching the title for the Gators over the Baylor Bears was freshman Ben Shelton, Bryan’s son, playing #5 singles. The elder Shelton was a rarity in the 1990s, a tour-level player with a college degree. While diplomas remain unusual in today’s ATP, players with collegiate experience abound. Concurrent with the American team event, two NCAA products—Cam Norrie of Britain and Arthur Rinderknech of France—battled for a semi-final spot in Lyon, and Norrie ultimately reached his second clay-court final of the season. The gap between #5 singles in Gainesville and top-50 in the world is enormous, but Ben Shelton has at least one advantage: an excellent coach.
