Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Cam Norrie is returning better than ever, the Madrid women’s draw is packed with qualifiers, and Dustin Brown is still standing in a tour-level doubles draw.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 40.5%, Cam Norrie’s rate of return points won this season. He’s into his fourth quarter-final of the year in Estoril after knocking out Pedro Martinez in a three-hour battle yesterday, and the 25-year-old lefty is enjoying multi-surface success for the first time thanks to his improved return game. Over his entire career, he’s won 37.6% of return points won, resulting in breaks of serve 23.2% of the time. He’s now breaking almost 28% of his opponent’s service games, even if he hasn’t quite managed that in his two meetings this year against Rafael Nadal. He’s topped 41% of return points won on 16 occasions in 2021, all of which he has won, and he’s snatched away half of return points against the likes of Adrian Mannarino and Nikoloz Basilashvili. With countryman Dan Evans also posting wins on clay, Norrie has plenty of ground to make up before he can be the British #1, but he’s back in the top 50 after a nearly two-year exile and within a few points of his career-best Elo rating. While he’s unlikely to manage 40% of points off the serve of today’s opponent Cristian Garin, he’ll be able to keep it close: The one time they played before, the Chilean retired shortly after Norrie won a first-set tiebreak.
Our second number is 12, the number of qualifiers in the women’s main draw in Madrid. In a minor tweak to create more playing opportunities for women outside the top 50, the mandatory 1000 event increased the number of qualifying spots in its 64-player draw from 8 to 12. It’s an arcane detail to most fans, but it opened up the field to 48 aspirants instead of 32 and made it more likely that the women best suited for the surface would be the ones who turned up in the main draw. On Thursday, the first day of main draw play, four qualifiers advanced, though it’s hardly a surprise–three of them did so at the expense of other qualifiers or lucky losers. The bottom half of the draw is not so forgiving: qualifier Vera Zvonareva drew 5th-seed Aryna Sabalenka, Nina Stojanovic plays Anett Kontaveit, and Misaki Doi faces 2nd seed Naomi Osaka. Qualifiers are more likely to do damage when top-half play resumes tomorrow, with Laura Siegemund taking on 14th seed Iga Swiatek and Anastasija Sevastova challenging 15th seed Johanna Konta. No qualifiers are favorites—though Sevastova is close—but thanks to the sheer force of their numbers, one or two is likely to stick around through the weekend.
Today’s third and final number is 43, the career-best doubles ranking of Dustin Brown. The German serve-and-volleyer reached that mark nearly 9 years ago, in 2012, a year when he won the second of his two career tour-level doubles titles and reached two more finals, partnering with Paul Hanley and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The 36-year-old’s doubles ranking is down to 212, but for the first time since 2017, he’s in an ATP semi-final, partnering Peter Gojowczyk in Munich this week. He’s a regular in Challenger-level doubles draws, where he has had middling results, and his path to the final four at the Bavarian International illustrates how much luck is involved in climbing the doubles ladder. The German duo’s entry was thanks to a wild card, and they advanced to the quarters without lifting a racquet thanks to the withdrawal of Jonny O’Mara and Aisam Qureshi. Yesterday they earned their passage, winning in an hour flat. With Brown barely hanging on to a singles ranking in the top 300, fans should cross their fingers for more two-on-two wins—in his mid-30s, a player who knows his way around the net is just entering his doubles prime.
