Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Alcaraz wasn’t born yet when his opponent today first cracked the top 100, Sofia Kenin suffers another disappointing loss, and the Bogota draw leaves me feeling light-headed.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 56, Feliciano Lopez’s ATP ranking on May 5th, 2003. That day kicked off the Italian Open, where the 21-year-old lefty lost his first round match to Wayne Ferreira. It was also the day that Carlos Alcaraz Garfia was born. Almost 18 years later, Alcaraz is one of the best prospects in the men’s game, and Lopez is one of the few 39-year-olds still grinding it out. Today, age will be one of the many contrasts in evidence when the two Spaniards face off in a second round match in Marbella. Lopez represents the dwindling breed of one-handed backhands and isn’t afraid to move forward, while Alcaraz is a double-handed righty with a dogged baseline game. Lopez peaked at #12 in the rankings and never won a singles event above the ATP 500 level, so Alcaraz surely hopes to reach greater heights. Yet for pure longevity, equaling the lefty is a daunting task—he’s only a few victories away from his 500th career tour-level win.
Our second number is 20, the number of break points faced by Sofia Kenin in her loss to Lauren Davis yesterday. Kenin, WTA #4 and reigning Roland Garros finalist, struggled on Charleston’s green clay, falling break point down in 10 of her 14 service games. Despite having less than a 25% chance of pulling off the upset according to the Tennis Abstract Elo ratings, Davis converted eight of them, slightly better than the seven breaks she coughed back up. In six tournaments this year, Kenin has won only 7 matches, none against a top-25 player. Her 2020 Australian Open serves as a reminder of how high her peak level can be, but her recent struggles have dropped her Elo rating down to 17th, and she’s outside the top 40 in the 2021 Race to Shenzhen. There simply isn’t room in the WTA top 10 for the all the excellent players in Kenin’s age cohort—if she doesn’t turn things around soon, she could find herself the odd woman out.
Today’s third and final number is 2, the number of the eight original seeds remaining after barely one and a half rounds of play Bogota. Daily listeners might worry that I’m irrationally obsessed with the low-level Copa Colsanitas, but the last 24 hours merely proved how fascinating a WTA 250 on high-altitude clay can be. All four seeded players on Wednesday’s schedule were upset, beginning with #6 Jasmine Paolini, a victim in three sets to Bogota-specialist Lara Arruabarrena. Next was 8th seed Wang Yafan, a fish out of water on clay. Following her, #3 Arantxa Rus lost a see-saw, 7-6 2-6 6-1 battle to qualifier Nuria Parrizas Diaz, the story of the tournament as a 29-year-old playing her first tour event. Finally, top seed Zheng Saisai won only five games against 127th-ranked Stefanie Voegele. With the 2nd and 4th seeds already gone via opening-round upsets, it’s fitting that the remaining favorite, according to the Tennis Abstract forecast, is unseeded Sara Errani, who knocked out Sara Sorribes Tormo in a first-round slugfest. Eight years ago, the monster-serving Ivo Karlovic won a title in Bogota; if Errani and her underarm serve go all the way, the Colombia capital will have truly come full circle.
