Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Errani and Sorribes Tormo play in Bogota, Sebastian Korda’s new career-best ranking underrates him, and Matteo Berrettini makes a rare appearance on the doubles court.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 7.8, the average rally length in the last meeting between Sara Errani and Sara Sorribes Tormo. The Italian veteran and the 24-year-old Spaniard, who face off in Bogota today, most recently went at it in the Acapulco first round last year, when their refusal to end points threatened to singlehandedly keep professional tennis going through the entire duration of the pandemic. Sure, it didn’t work, but a rally length of almost 8 shots is unheard of these days. WTA tour average is about 4.3 shots, with the mean on clay a bit higher. Errani’s average in 44 matches logged by the Match Charting Project is 5.1, and Sorribes Tormo’s, in 14 charted matches, is 6.3. Today’s match is a rare opportunity for the past and future of dirtballing to work together and set a new record, but the high altitude in Bogota will work against them. The last time the Copa Colsanitas was held, in 2019, Amanda Anisimova and Astra Sharma averaged a very un-clay-like two-and-a-half shots per point in the final. The very fact that aggressors such as Anisimova and Sharma reached the final is a hint that the conditions in Bogota aren’t particularly Sara-friendly.
Our second number is 48, the gap between Sebastian Korda’s ATP computer ranking of #65 and his position of #17 on the Tennis Abstract Elo list. While 65 is a new career high for the 20-year-old American, it drastically underrates his current level. With Miami tournament wrapups rightfully focused on the Hubert Hurkacz’s breakthrough title, it’s easy to forget about Korda’s back-to-back-to-back upsets of Fabio Fognini, Aslan Karatsev, and Diego Schwartzman. Add that to a Challenger title last November, another in January, and a first tour-level final in Delray Beach in January, and you have a rising star worthy of the name. Korda’s athletic family sets the bar high, with two sisters on the LPGA tour, a mother who reached the WTA top 30, and a Grand Slam title for father Petr. It’s premature to predict that Sebastian will surpass his dad’s career high ranking of #2, but when Korda the elder was Sebi’s age, he was ranked only 137th. If Elo is any guide, the youngster is well on his way to becoming the #1 American, and eventually, perhaps, king of the Kordas.
Today’s third and final number is 1, the number of doubles matches played by Matteo Berrettini since 2019. The Italian, whose 25th birthday is next Monday, is ranked #10 in singles, but has played only 30 career tour-level doubles matches, and this year’s ATP Cup was his first time in more than year. Thus, his appearance in the doubles draw of this week’s Sardinia Open, with younger brother Jacopo, has a bit of an exhibition feel. Matteo didn’t enter the singles, leaving the clay-phobic #32 Dan Evans as the top seed and #34 Lorenzo Sonego as the leading Italian. The Berrettinis aren’t exactly the favorites in the doubles, either–Jacopo is barely hanging on to a singles ranking inside the top 500, and he lost in the first round of singles qualifying over the weekend. They’re unlikely to challenge the Bryans—or even the Zverevs—as the next great sibling doubles duo. Still, Matteo is taking an underutilized route back to normalcy on tour as he recovers from the ab injury that knocked him out of the Australian Open. With little at stake, he’ll get back on court, hang out with family, and help promote a fledgling Italian tour stop while he’s at it.
