Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Jessica Pegula fails to follow up a big upset for the third straight tournament, Karatsev hands an easy win to Sebastian Korda, and iron woman Sara Sorribes Tormo is learning to make the best of hard courts.
Scroll down for a transcript.
You can subscribe on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.
Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode
The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.
Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 3, the number of times this month that Jessica Pegula has faced Karolina Pliskova, the number of times that Pegula has beaten the Czech, and now, the number of times that the American has lost in the following match. The Pegula-Pliskova matchup has been one of the more surprising stories of the 2021 season, as the unheralded American has halved her WTA ranking in three months. But even though the first two upsets took only an hour apiece, they might have taken something out of Pegula. After overcoming Pliskova, she has lost to Petra Kvitova, Elise Mertens, and yesterday in Miami, Maria Sakkari. There’s no shame in any of these losses, though they do highlight the uniqueness of this particular head-to-head. Pegula is definitely better than #63 ranking with which she ended 2020, but fans are still waiting to see if she can string together back-to-back wins against tough opponents.
Our second number is 31, the number of unforced errors committed by Aslan Karatsev in a surprisingly lopsided loss to 20-year-old American Sebastian Korda. Karatsev has been outstanding this year, earning a top-five position in the ATP Race to Turin and more likely to post winner totals north of 30 than such depressing unforced error tallies. In the 6-3 6-0 third-round loss, Karatsev looked out of sorts, both at less than 100% physically and without his coach, who was unable to get a visa for the American trip. It’s a reminder that establishing oneself on tour in no easy task, even for a talent like the Russian. It’s also another reason to take notice of Korda, one of the top prospects in the game. Son of former ATP #2 Petr, Sebi won challenger events in November and January, and reached his first ATP final in Delray Beach to start the year. His official ranking remains an uninspiring #87, while his position in the Elo list is #36. Karatsev would surely endorse the latter, and next Monday it will rise even higher, no matter what happens in today’s round-of-16 meeting with Diego Schwartzman.
Today’s third and final number is 12, the number of matches Sara Sorribes Tormo has played this year that lasted two hours of more. Her total has jumped from 8 to 12 at the Miami Open alone, as her route to the quarterfinal—past seeds Jennifer Brady, Elena Rybakina, and Ons Jabeur—has averaged two hours and 22 minutes per outing. The Spaniard’s 2021 season has been a surprise for more than just length: she opened the year with a quarter-final showing in Abu Dhabi, and reeled off a 7 match win streak in Mexico, claiming the Guadalajara title. By turning every match into a war of attrition, she’s making the best of a surface she doesn’t prefer. Her first three career titles as a pro came on clay, but there hasn’t been much dirt on the WTA tour since the restart. Sorribes Tormo’s resilience has also been a defining factor: In yesterday’s upset of Jabeur, she bounced back from a 0-6 second set to win in a decider. Back in November, the Spaniard lost 12 straight games to Aryna Sabalenka after taking a 6-0 4-0 lead. Much has been made of Sabalenka’s hot streak since then, but perhaps the more impressive feat is that Sorribes Tormo has excelled as well.
