Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: Djokovic brushes aside Daniil Medvedev with a performance for the ages, Roger Federer should get comfortable with the idea of a lower place on the all-time slam list, and a flurry of younger prospects have excelled this week at Challengers around the world.
Scroll down for a transcript.
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Rough transcript of today’s episode:
The first number is 56%, the rate at which Novak Djokovic won points en route to his 18th grand slam title at the Australian Open today. In Daniil Medvedev, he faced the hottest player on tour, one who beat him handily at the Tour Finals in November. He responded with a performance for the ages. In 27 previous major finals, Djokovic won 56% of total points only three times: In Australian against Andy Murray in 2011 and Rafael Nadal in 2019, and at Wimbledon against Kevin Anderson in 2018. He didn’t flash the gaudy ace numbers he has been posting in Melbourne, but he shut down the Medvedev first serve to an extent that almost no one else has managed. In 35 hard court matches in the last 52 weeks, the Russian has won over 80% of his first serve points. Today was only the second time in those 35 matches that his opponent limited him to fewer than 70%. For all of Medvedev’s momentum and Djokovic’s question marks coming into the championship match, the number one player in the world took care of business with other-worldly returning and a typically solid all-around performance to move him within two slams of the all-time record.
Our second number is 2.5. 2.5 is a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the number of majors Djokovic can be expected to win in the five years. My algorithm is designed to be as simple as possible, taking into account only semi-final-and-later showings at slams in the last two years, as well as a player’s age. Despite a bit of extra uncertainty owing to Wimbledon’s cancellation last summer, the bare-bones formula predicts that Djokovic has two or three majors left in him. Three more would increase his career total to 21, better than the current record held by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. The bad news for fans of the Serbian star is that Nadal is also still going strong. The same formula tallies up Rafa’s almost-as-strong showing over the last two years with his slightly more advanced age and predicts 1.8 more majors for him. It’s looking increasingly likely that 20 grand slams will no longer guarantee even a shared place at the top of the all-time list.
Today’s third and final number is 23, the age of the oldest player remaining in an ATP Challenger draw this week. Despite pandemic-related restrictions, the lower rung of the tour is going strong, with events this week in South Africa, Italy, and Chile. In South Africa, 20-year-old American Jenson Brooksby won the first title of the day, eliminating veteran Russian Teymuraz Gabashvili in three sets and moving his ranking just inside the top 250. The other two finals are prospect-only. The championship match in Biella pits South Korean Kwon Soonwoo against 18-year-old Lorenzo Musetti, one of only three teenagers in the top 100 of the Tennis Abstract Elo ratings. The Concepcion final involves a pair of lesser-known Argentine prospects. 22-year-old Francisco Cerundolo has gone from unranked two years ago to top 150 today, and is riding a three-match Challenger final winning streak. He’ll try to sustain that run against Sebastian Baez, a 20-year-old playing his first title match at this level. The future of men’s tennis looks strong, both within the top ten and at the fringes of the top 100.