Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.
Up today: The 23-year-old Japanese star continues her dominance in the biggest matches, Rajeev Ram and Barbora Krejcikova are the king and queen of Melbourne doubles, and Daniil Medvedev enters tomorrow’s final with scary numbers.
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Today’s transcript:
The first number is 7. Seven is the number of professional titles won by Naomi Osaka, a tally that she incremented today with a straight-set victory in the Australian Open final over Jennifer Brady. Four of the seven are majors, two apiece in New York and Melbourne. Two of the others are barely a step down: Indian Wells in 2018, and Beijing a year later, where she beat Ashleigh Barty in the final. Unlike anyone else in tennis with the possible exception of Serena Williams, Osaka cranks up her level when it really matters. This year’s Australian was her 18th career major main draw, and only her sixth appearance in a round of 16. In the quarter-finals or later, she is 12-0. The 23-year-old’s dominance sets up an array of mouth-watering meetings to watch for later in the season: She hasn’t faced Barty since that Beijing final, Petra Kvitova since the 2019 tour finals, or either Simona Halep or Aryna Sabalenka since 2018. The now-four-time major champion would be the favorite in a hard-court face-off against anyone, especially in the second week of a grand slam.
Our second number is 3. Three is the number of Australian Open grand slam finals this weekend that feature either Rajeev Ram or Barbora Krejcikova. Ram and Krejcikova won the mixed today over Aussies Sam Stosur and Matt Edben, reprising their 2019 title in the same event. It makes three in a row for Krejcikova, who also won the mixed last year with Nikola Mektic. The Czech reached the women’s doubles final with long-time partner Katerina Siniakova, losing in straights yesterday to Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens. In tomorrow’s men’s final, Ram and Joe Salisbury will try to defend their title against the ninth-seeded pair of Ivan Dodig and Filip Polasek. Ram-Salisbury have cruised thus far, dropping only a single set in the second round. It is a small coterie of specialists who rule the doubles roost, and regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, the unlikely American-Czech duo are at its apex.
Today’s third and final number is 55.5%, the rate at which Daniil Medvedev has won points in his 20 match win streak. Going back to the beginning of November, he has beaten 12 top tenners, including every other member of the top ten except the injured Roger Federer. 55.5% may not sound particularly worthy of mention, but with the small margins that rule tennis, it is truly eye-popping. Federer has achieved that mark for a full season only twice—in 2004 and 2006, when he won 11 and 12 titles, respectively. Novak Djokovic has done it four times, never exceeding an even 56%, and not since 2016. Rafael Nadal has sustained 55.5% or higher in five separate seasons, also never exceeding 56.0. Medvedev has posted his big-three-quality numbers by excelling on both sides of the ball, holding more than nine out of ten service games while winning 42% of return points and breaking one-third of the time, all this against the best players in the game. Of all the underdogs to face Djokovic in major finals, Medvedev has the best chance yet to send the top seed home empty-handed.