Italian translation at settesei.it
Two years ago, during the 2017 Australian Open, I offered a partial explanation of the many upsets at that year’s first major. Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Angelique Kerber, Simona Halep and many others had been ousted before the quarter-finals, all to players with a more aggressive, attacking style. It turned out that the courts that year were playing particularly fast–quicker than any of the other slams, including Wimbledon, as well as most hard-court tour stops.
In Melbourne this year, the courts are playing even faster.
Through three rounds of play, almost 90% of the tournament’s singles matches are in the books. Based on my surface-speed metric, which measures how many aces are struck at each tournament while controlling for the mix of servers and returners, the 2019 Australian Open can boast the quickest surface at the event since at least 2011*, and the second-fastest conditions of any major in that time span.
* Match stats, even simple ones such as service points and aces, are increasingly tough to come by for the women’s game before 2011.
The average of my surface-speed ratings for the men’s and women’s events at 2019’s first major is 1.28, meaning that there have been 28% more aces than expected, given the mix of servers and returners across the matches played so far. The notably fast 2017 event was 1.23, the fastest US Open of the last eight years was 1.14 (in 2015), and last year’s Wimbledon, played on the surface that is supposed to be fastest of all, was a mere 1.06.
Here are the top ten fastest slam surfaces from 2011 to the present:
Speed Rating Tournament 1.31 2011 Wimbledon 1.28 2019 Australian Open* 1.27 2014 Wimbledon 1.27 2016 Australian Open 1.23 2017 Australian Open 1.20 2015 Australian Open 1.18 2015 Wimbledon 1.17 2013 Wimbledon 1.17 2012 Wimbledon 1.15 2014 Australian Open
* through first three rounds
Last year’s Aussie Open was a bit of an outlier, but even still, it barely missed this list, coming in 12th at 1.12.
At least most players arrived prepared. The warm-up events in Brisbane and Auckland ranked among the fastest conditions since the beginning of last season: Brisbane rates at 1.29 while Auckland came in at a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it 1.35. Last year, only four events per tour were faster.
In theory, such a speedy surface should work to the advantage of big servers with aggressive games. At least so far, it hasn’t worked out that way. Unlike in 2017, Djokovic, Halep, and Kerber are still in the running, while Kevin Anderson was an early casualty. On the other hand, the court speed does jibe with some results, like Maria Sharapova’s third-round upset of defending champion Caroline Wozniacki.
If the conditions are to impact the result of the tournament, it will have to happen in matches yet to come. A slick surface tends to favor Roger Federer, even if Djokovic remains the popular pick to hoist the trophy next Sunday. More immediately, a fast surface doesn’t bode well for Halep’s chances in her fourth-round match against Serena Williams. Facing Serena is difficult enough without the conditions working against you, too.