Italian translation at settesei.it
For years, Tomas Berdych has flown beneath the radar. Even when he spent several seasons in the top ten, he rarely challenged the big four, picking up his 13 career titles against weaker competition. His quarter-final showing at last year’s Australian Open was surprising, but it was also symbolic of his entire career: a couple of nice wins followed by a straight set loss to Roger Federer.
The rest of Berdych’s 2018 campaign went downhill from there. He won back-to-back matches only twice more (one of the pairs came in Marseille, thanks to a Damir Dzumhur retirement), lost five in a row between Miami and the French Open, and surrendered to a back injury before Wimbledon, missing the rest of the season. He turned 33 during his time away, so it would have been understandable had he struggled upon return, or even if he decided that 2019 would represent his farewell tour.
Neither appears to be the case. The Czech reached the final in his first tournament back, in Doha this month, coming within a set of ousting Roberto Bautista Agut and bagging his first title since 2016. On Monday in Melbourne, he barely broke a sweat en route to a straight-set defeat of 13th seed and defending semi-finalist Kyle Edmund. A 33-year-old returning from a back injury is unlikely to return to his career high of No. 4 in the rankings, but should he stay healthy, the top ten isn’t an impossible goal, especially among a somewhat weaker field than the one he faced in the early part of the decade. After all, we learned last week that the players who manage to stick around can improve even into their mid-30’s.
A big part of the case for a Berdych resurgence is that his abbreviated 2018 season wasn’t as bad as it looked. Yes, he lost as many matches as he won, and only one of his victories came against a top-20 player. But even without accouting for the injury that slowed him down, he was quite unlucky. Of his eleven losses, he was at least the equal of his opponent in five of them, according to Dominance Ratio (DR), the ratio between return points won and opponent return points won. That’s just bad luck: In his career through 2017, he lost 35 such matches, but won another 35 when his opponents slightly outplayed him. Flip a few of those results, and Berdych’s 11-11 record becomes at least 14-8 in those matches, and we would have seen more of him in late rounds, assuming his body allowed it.
A more precise way to pin down his 2018 performance is by using stats adjusted for competition level, which I outlined in a previous post. His adjusted DR for each season is displayed below, with age along the horizontal axis:
His adjusted DR last year–his age 33 season–was 1.22, his best single-year mark since 2012, when he finished 6th in the year-end rankings. With only 22 matches in the books, we could be looking at a fluky result due to the limited sample, but on the other hand, a healthier Berdych should be even better. A stronger back should be able to cancel out the effect a few bounces failing to go his way.
And based on some very early results, “stronger” is exactly the word for it. In his five matches at the Australian Open last year, his average first serve speed fluctuated between 191 and 198 km/h (119 to 123 mph), including a first-round mean of 195 km/h. On Monday against Edmund, he averaged 201 km/h (125 mph). His fastest serve of the 2018 Australian was 212 km/h (132 mph) in the third round; he peaked at 211 km/h yesterday. His 2018 overall rate of serve points won was his lowest since 2009, meaning that his solid overall numbers were thanks to superior returning. If he comes back serving better than he did last year, it’s another positive sign.
The rest of this week offers a good test of Berdych’s form. On Wednesday he’ll face Robin Haase, an opponent that a would-be top-tenner should dispatch easily. The third round may involve a clash with Diego Schwartzman, a matchup that slightly favors the Czech on a hard court, but will force him to work harder than the Edmund match did. Should he reach the second week, his probable fourth-round foe would be Rafael Nadal. He would enter that match with extremely low expectations, but hey, that’s no different than the many times that they faced off in the past. And there’s always hope: Rafa has won 18 of their last 19 meetings, but the sole loss came almost exactly four years ago, at the Australian Open.