Italian translation at settesei.it
This is a guest post by Edoardo Salvati
In the last fifteen years, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray—the Big Four—have dominated the ATP tour like no one before them. It’s hard to find a better example of oligarchy outside of geopolitics.
Since Wimbledon 2003, Federer’s first Grand Slam title, they have amassed 54 of 62 majors (or 87%) and been involved in another four finals. Similarly, since Federer’s first Masters win at Hamburg in 2002, they have won 106 of 159 titles at that level (or 66%) and contested 12 more finals. Since 2003 they have won 12 of 16 ATP Finals (or 75%) and contested one of the other four finals. 2017 and 2018 was the first time that outsiders won back-to-back season-ending titles in fifteen years.
It is an unprecedented level of domination that has left little glory for other players. But who are these others and how much would have they won had they been able to overcome the Big Four? At the Match Charting Project, we like to collect data (and you’re always welcome to contribute). Recently, we started working on a subset of matches that comprises all the Slam semi-finals back to 1980. Plenty of those featured recurring names from this second tier, so I was intrigued to see which players would have benefitted most in a world where the Big Four were not as good.
Deep inside of a parallel universe
Starting from Wimbledon 2003, I considered a hard-to-imagine scenario: What if the Big Four never won a major semi-final or final? For instance, when Grigor Dimitrov reached the final four at the 2017 Australian Open, he would have beaten Nadal (instead of losing in five sets), and then defeated Federer to win the title. When Juan Martin del Potro played Nadal in the 2018 French Open semi-final (he lost in straight sets), we rewrite history to make Delpo the winner, going on to face Dominic Thiem in the final. At the same event, in our parallel universe, Thiem wins the final against Nadal (he really lost in straight sets) and becomes the French Open champion for a second theoretical time.
The resulting slam tallies aren’t a precise redistribution of some of the Slams won by the Big Four, because there can be two different parallel-universe winners for the same tournament. Nevertheless, the title and final counts provide a general idea of who would’ve thrived in a Big Four-less sport. The following table lists the additional titles and finals (to a player’s actual wins, not shown) belonging to a parallel universe of tennis.
Player Extra Slams Extra Finals Stan Wawrinka 6 (2 AO - 2 FO - 2 US) 0 David Ferrer 6 (2 AO - 2 FO - 2 US) 0 Andy Roddick 5 (1 AO - 3 WIM - 1 US) 2 (1AO - 1 WIM) Jo Wilfried Tsonga 4 (2 AO - 2 WIM) 0 Tomas Berdych 3 (1 AO - 1 FO - 1 US) 2 (WIM) Richard Gasquet 3 (2 WIM - 2 US) 0 Milos Raonic 3 (1 AO - 2 WIM) 0 Juan Martin del Potro 2 (1 WIM - 1 US) 3 (2 FO - 1 US) Marin Cilic 2 (1 AO - 1 WIM) 2 (1 AO - 1 US) Nicolay Davydenko 2 (1 FO - 1 US) 1 (US) Dominic Thiem 2 (FO) 1 (FO) Marat Safin 2 (1 AO - 1 WIM) 0 Marcos Baghdatis 2 (1 AO - 1 WIM) 0 Robin Soderling 2 (FO) 0 Kevin Anderson 2 (1 WIM - 1 US) 0 Grigor Dimitrov 2 (1 AO - 1 WIM) 0 Lleyton Hewitt 1 (US) 2 (1 WIM - 1 US) Gael Monfils 1 (FO) 1 (US) Mark Philippoussis 1 (WIM) 0 Andre Agassi 1 (US) 0 Fernando Gonzalez 1 (AO) 0 Jonas Bjorkman 1 (WIM) 0 Mariano Puerta 1 (FO) 0 Ivan Ljubicic 1 (FO) 0 Rainer Schuettler 1 (WIM) 0 Fernando Verdasco 1 (AO) 0 Mikhail Youznhy 1 (US) 0 Ernests Gulbis 1 (FO) 0 Jerzy Janowicz 1 (WIM) 0 Kei Nishikori 0 1 (US) Juan Carlos Ferrero 0 1 (AO) Sebastian Grosjean 0 1 (WIM) Tim Henman 0 1 (US) Nicolas Kiefer 0 1 (AO) David Nalbandian 0 1 (FO) Tommy Haas 0 1 (WIM) Hyeon Chung 0 1 (AO) Jurgen Melzer 0 1 (FO) Total 62 23
It’s no surprise to see Stan Wawrinka, a three-time winner and nine-time major semi-finalist, at the top. He would triple his overall count for each Slam he won, though Wimbledon would remain elusive. Had he beaten Federer in the quarter-final in 2014, he would have gotten as far as the semi-final against Milos Raonic.
There’s a group of players whose careers would look even more outstanding. David Ferrer, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet and Raonic could all claim to be Slam winners. Ferrer lost all his semi-finals and a final to the Big Four, and winning a Slam would have been a fitting reward for his many years of elite-level performance.
And, of course, there’s Andy Roddick, who must have wished that the only illustrious citizen from Basel was Jacob Bernoulli. After winning the US Open in 2003, Roddick lost all the finals he played to Federer, including three Wimbledon Championships.
One player who may deserve to be even higher on the list is del Potro, who had to face a member of the Big Four in every semi-final he played and never went beyond the quarter-finals at the Australian Open, twice knocked out by Federer. You would expect del Potro to have won more than two of these hypothetical majors.
The gatekeeper
A few years ago, in an article for FiveThirtyEight, Carl Bialik investigated the assumption that Nadal led all the Open-era greats as the biggest obstacle to Grand Slam titles. Inventing a stat called the “title block,” he quantified every loss to Nadal with a fraction of the title depending on the round: half a title block for a loss to Nadal in the finals, a quarter for the semi-finals, and so on.
Let’s use that stat and extend the analysis to see how many titles, since Wimbledon 2003, the Big Four cost the other players, as shown in the following table. Walkovers and retirements were included.
Blocked AO RG WIM USO Titles Cost Roger Federer 2.00 2.50 1.50 1.00 7.00 Andy Murray 2.94 1.25 1.38 0.88 6.44 Novak Djokovic 0.06 2.13 1.00 2.50 5.69 Rafael Nadal 1.13 0.13 1.75 0.75 3.75 Andy Roddick 0.50 0.00 1.78 0.88 3.16 Tomas Berdych 1.03 0.19 1.31 0.25 2.78 David Ferrer 0.88 1.13 0.13 0.51 2.63 Stanislas Wawrinka 0.72 1.00 0.19 0.63 2.53 Juan Martin Del Potro 0.25 0.70 0.45 1.03 2.43 Marin Cilic 0.81 0.09 0.94 0.44 2.28 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 0.94 0.19 0.81 0.34 2.28 Lleyton Hewitt 0.25 0.19 0.56 0.78 1.78 Milos Raonic 0.56 0.13 0.88 0.06 1.63 Robin Soderling 0.00 1.13 0.23 0.25 1.62 Richard Gasquet 0.03 0.38 0.63 0.41 1.46 Gael Monfils 0.11 0.75 0.00 0.57 1.43 Kevin Anderson 0.07 0.00 0.64 0.50 1.21 Dominic Thiem 0.00 1.02 0.00 0.13 1.14 Marcos Baghdatis 0.64 0.03 0.44 0.02 1.13 Nikolay Davydenko 0.27 0.25 0.01 0.53 1.05 Fernando Gonzalez 0.56 0.17 0.13 0.16 1.02 Fernando Verdasco 0.30 0.25 0.13 0.28 0.96 Kei Nishikori 0.38 0.20 0.13 0.25 0.96 Mikhail Youzhny 0.05 0.06 0.41 0.42 0.95 Grigor Dimitrov 0.47 0.03 0.31 0.06 0.88 Marat Safin 0.53 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.81 Andre Agassi 0.13 0.00 0.03 0.63 0.78 Tommy Haas 0.11 0.22 0.41 0.00 0.73 Tommy Robredo 0.19 0.13 0.11 0.25 0.67 Feliciano Lopez 0.11 0.01 0.19 0.34 0.65 Gilles Simon 0.30 0.06 0.19 0.03 0.58 Juan Carlos Ferrero 0.25 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.57 David Nalbandian 0.13 0.25 0.03 0.16 0.56 Jurgen Melzer 0.10 0.25 0.06 0.09 0.51 Mark Philippoussis 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.01 0.51 Mariano Puerta 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 Nicolas Almagro 0.06 0.41 0.00 0.03 0.50
As expected, the Big Four have blocked each other more than they have any other player, costing themselves a whopping 22.88 majors, with Federer and Murray paying the highest price, 7.00 and 6.44 respectively. Other familiar names are just below the top four. There are 17 players who were blocked from at least one major title.
Nadal retains his status as the Slam gatekeeper: you have to pass through him to win a major. Not only did the rest of the Big Four fails to block him as much as he did them–he has the lowest major titles cost among the Big Four at 3.75–but he also has blocked the rest of the quartet more than any other player.
Blocker Blocked Titles cost
Rafael Nadal Roger Federer 3.75
Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 3.13
Rafael Nadal Andy Murray 1.44
Total 8.32
Novak Djokovic Andy Murray 3.13
Novak Djokovic Roger Federer 3.00
Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal 1.88
Total 8.01
Roger Federer Andy Murray 1.88
Roger Federer Novak Djokovic 1.56
Roger Federer Rafael Nadal 1.50
Total 4.94
Andy Murray Novak Djokovic 1.00
Andy Murray Rafael Nadal 0.38
Andy Murray Roger Federer 0.25
Total 1.63
Nadal boasts a net credit of 2.25 major titles versus Federer, of 1.25 against Djokovic and of 1.06 compared to Murray. Just as the rest of the men’s tour would prefer that the Big Four had pursued a different sport, three-quarters of the Big Four have had plenty of reasons to wish that Rafa had shifted his focus to golf.
At this month’s Australian Open, Nadal continues to loom large. With the No. 2 seed, he is a potential semi-final opponent for Federer or Murray and, of course, a possible foe in the final for top seed Djokovic. There’s no guarantee that Nadal will stand in anyone’s way, but with these men accounting for the top three seeds at yet another major, the era of Big Four title blocks is far from over.
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Edoardo Salvati is on a mission to raise the level of the Italian sports conversation. He founded settesei.it and has written about tennis and other sports for publications such as Contrasti, Undici, Il Tennis Italiano. He is a prolific and proud contributor to the Match Charting Project.