The Indian Wells draw is out. With my latest hard-court rankings, I’ve run simulations on the draw. Qualifiers aren’t yet placed, so I set all of the qualifiers equal to the 100th-ranked player.
I’d like to have some flashy, controversial projections, but the numbers don’t look much different than they did before the Australian Open. Djokovic has a 27% chance of winning, Nadal 13.2%, with Murray a bit ahead of Federer. Murray not only rates a bit higher in my ranking system after his latest win over Novak, but he has a somewhat easier draw here.
Here are the full projections:
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(1)Novak Djokovic 100.0% 92.2% 78.9% 27.2%
Qualifier1 50.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.0%
Qualifier2 50.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.0%
Matthias Bachinger 34.5% 13.1% 1.7% 0.0%
Philipp Kohlschreiber 65.5% 35.2% 7.3% 0.2%
(29)Kevin Anderson 100.0% 51.6% 9.5% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(18)Florian Mayer 100.0% 69.5% 37.6% 0.7%
Robin Haase 72.5% 25.8% 10.4% 0.0%
Pablo Andujar 27.5% 4.7% 1.0% 0.0%
Albert Ramos 36.8% 6.7% 1.6% 0.0%
(WC)Jesse Levine 63.2% 17.8% 6.3% 0.0%
Richard Gasquet 100.0% 75.5% 43.1% 1.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(12)Nicolas Almagro 100.0% 56.8% 23.8% 0.3%
Qualifier3 33.1% 10.6% 2.8% 0.0%
(WC)Sam Querrey 66.9% 32.6% 13.1% 0.1%
Santiago Giraldo 80.6% 23.1% 10.2% 0.1%
(WC)Jack Sock 19.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
(17)Kei Nishikori 100.0% 75.1% 49.8% 2.3%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(30)Andy Roddick 100.0% 62.1% 26.4% 0.6%
Ivo Karlovic 54.8% 22.0% 7.4% 0.1%
Lukasz Kubot 45.2% 15.9% 4.6% 0.0%
Alex Bogomolov Jr. 48.3% 11.3% 4.6% 0.0%
Sergiy Stakhovsky 51.7% 12.8% 5.3% 0.0%
(7)Tomas Berdych 100.0% 75.8% 51.7% 3.8%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(4)Andy Murray 100.0% 83.3% 64.7% 10.0%
Guillermo Garcia Lopez 80.3% 15.5% 7.3% 0.1%
Rui Machado 19.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Flavio Cipolla 40.2% 13.9% 2.7% 0.0%
Ryan Harrison 59.8% 26.5% 6.8% 0.1%
(25)Viktor Troicki 100.0% 59.6% 18.2% 0.3%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka 100.0% 79.2% 48.0% 1.8%
Qualifier4 61.7% 14.7% 4.9% 0.0%
(WC)Robby Ginepri 38.3% 6.1% 1.5% 0.0%
Qualifier5 42.6% 11.7% 3.5% 0.0%
Dudi Sela 57.4% 19.3% 6.8% 0.0%
(13)Gilles Simon 100.0% 69.1% 35.4% 0.8%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(11)John Isner 100.0% 73.7% 46.1% 1.2%
Qualifier6 50.0% 13.2% 5.0% 0.0%
Qualifier7 50.0% 13.1% 5.0% 0.0%
Qualifier8 48.0% 15.5% 5.0% 0.0%
Nicolas Mahut 52.0% 17.8% 6.1% 0.0%
(22)Juan Monaco 100.0% 66.7% 32.9% 0.4%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(32)Julien Benneteau 100.0% 69.1% 29.4% 0.4%
Qualifier9 54.2% 17.7% 4.7% 0.0%
Igor Kunitsyn 45.8% 13.2% 3.1% 0.0%
Andreas Seppi 56.1% 18.0% 9.4% 0.1%
Olivier Rochus 43.9% 12.0% 5.5% 0.0%
(8)Mardy Fish 100.0% 70.0% 48.0% 2.5%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(5)David Ferrer 100.0% 67.6% 51.5% 2.2%
Ivan Dodig 54.9% 18.8% 11.7% 0.1%
Grigor Dimitrov 45.1% 13.6% 7.9% 0.0%
Yen-Hsun Lu 40.7% 26.7% 7.7% 0.0%
Denis Istomin 59.3% 43.7% 16.0% 0.1%
(31)Juan Ignacio Chela 100.0% 29.6% 5.2% 0.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(19)Fernando Verdasco 100.0% 62.3% 23.1% 0.4%
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe 56.1% 22.5% 6.5% 0.0%
Ryan Sweeting 43.9% 15.2% 3.8% 0.0%
Qualifier10 50.1% 7.9% 2.7% 0.0%
Qualifier11 49.9% 7.9% 2.7% 0.0%
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro 100.0% 84.2% 61.3% 6.3%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(14)Gael Monfils 100.0% 72.9% 51.1% 2.8%
Nikolay Davydenko 65.9% 20.6% 10.7% 0.1%
Qualifier12 34.1% 6.5% 2.4% 0.0%
Lukas Rosol 42.2% 13.4% 3.2% 0.0%
Thomaz Bellucci 57.8% 22.6% 6.9% 0.0%
(20)Jurgen Melzer 100.0% 64.0% 25.6% 0.3%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(27)Milos Raonic 100.0% 74.4% 28.2% 1.0%
Carlos Berlocq 26.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Benoit Paire 74.0% 22.2% 4.9% 0.0%
Dmitry Tursunov 49.9% 8.4% 3.0% 0.0%
(WC)Denis Kudla 50.1% 8.3% 3.0% 0.0%
(3)Roger Federer 100.0% 83.4% 60.7% 8.7%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 100.0% 71.2% 56.0% 4.6%
Michael Llodra 46.4% 12.6% 7.4% 0.1%
Ernests Gulbis 53.6% 16.1% 9.9% 0.1%
Xavier Malisse 56.9% 27.0% 7.2% 0.0%
Qualifier13 43.1% 17.4% 3.7% 0.0%
(28)Radek Stepanek 100.0% 55.6% 15.8% 0.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(24)Marin Cilic 100.0% 60.1% 30.6% 0.9%
Potito Starac 17.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0%
David Nalbandian 82.9% 37.4% 17.3% 0.3%
Bernard Tomic 74.2% 38.0% 20.7% 0.7%
Gilles Muller 25.8% 7.0% 2.1% 0.0%
(10)Janko Tipsarevic 100.0% 55.0% 29.1% 0.9%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(15)Feliciano Lopez 100.0% 47.8% 24.2% 0.3%
Jeremy Chardy 36.0% 15.5% 6.8% 0.0%
Marcos Baghdatis 64.0% 36.7% 21.2% 0.6%
Donald Young 54.1% 21.5% 9.0% 0.1%
Steve Darcis 45.9% 16.6% 6.2% 0.0%
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 100.0% 61.9% 32.5% 0.7%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(26)Marcel Granollers 100.0% 67.6% 20.2% 0.6%
Jarkko Nieminen 85.5% 31.1% 6.5% 0.0%
Tommy Haas 14.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Alejandro Falla 68.3% 10.0% 3.9% 0.0%
Leonardo Mayer 31.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0%
(2)Rafael Nadal 100.0% 87.7% 68.8% 13.2%
(For those eagle-eyed readers, qualifiers don’t all have identical chances against each other because I’m running a Monte Carlo simulation, running the bracket 100,000 times. This method occasionally results in slight errors, or tiny changes from one simulation to the next.)
I’m interested that your system gave Benoit Paire a 74% chance of beating Carlos Berlocq (unless I’m misreading the figures). The actual result – Berlocq won 6-4 6-4 – seems reasonable to me, given that Berlocq is so much higher in the ATP rankings.
I think it was in Miami last year that Berlocq gave Berdych a good match, for the first set at least. He’s easy to underestimate.
Berlocq is tricky, since the vast majority of his matches, and the even vaster majority of his victories, have been on clay. (Career 7-21 on hard, though it’s been better more recently.) My system gives some credit across surfaces, but the different is due to the fact that Paire wins on hard courts (albeit infrequently).
Deaf, dumb, and blind! Berlocq won 6-4 6-2 of course.
I don’t suppose he has much chance of beating Raonic, but I am sure he will give it a try. He lost to Berdych, in the end, but the score was 7-6(8) 7-5, so not all that one-sided. And that was on a hard court, of course.
Berlocq is exactly the type of player that could cause Milos Raonic some problems, especially with the speed of the surface being even slower (so I’ve heard) this year.
Do your projections take into account ‘home-court advantage’? While I’m sure it’s not a major factor, I’m pretty sure it swings tight match-ups involving Americans in their favour more or less (such as Sweeting-Stebe, Kudla-Kamke, etc.)
Yep, they do account for home court. It’s a modest effect — i think just a few percent. It seems much larger (US players winning much more in the US, etc) but much of the effect is actually surface preference, so once you account for surface, the home-court effect is minor.
it is very surprised that Murry was kicked out in the round of 64…